Benevolance

Haru 2022 Discussion Thread (SPOILERS!)

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3 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

There is at least one precedent for being promoted to yokozuna after one basho at ozeki... unfortunately for Mitakeumi's fans, it happened in 1890 so its relevance may be somewhat limited.http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=3464

True, but he is a special case, having been awarded a yokozuna license but still considered as an ozeki. He complained and the RANK of yokozuna was added to the banzuke because of this. So, not applicable to the proposed scenario now.

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Okay, just to provoke a conversation, consider the prospect of Mitakeumi winning this yusho, his second in a row and fourth overall. What are the prospects of an early rope? Obviously, this would involve some precedent setting (I assume, will check) since he’d pass through Ozeki in one tournament, but could three Sekiwake yusho in the past be enough to back up one Ozeki yusho and justify a promotion? I think it’s highly unlikely, but it’s an intriguing plot line. 

We have a very recent precedent with Terunofuji, who had to wait for a JY in his second tournament as Ozeki to get the rope despite two back-to-back yusho as Sekiwake and Ozeki respectively. In short, Sekiwake yusho "do not count", or at least can provide only extra support. I am pretty confident that, even in case Mitakeumi wins this yusho, he will have to provide at least a JY next basho to be considered for promotion. On the other hand, he NEEDS to get at least a JY this time if he wants his Hatsu yusho to not get wasted (and a Y or JY in Natsu). It was always clear to me that the NSK regards only JY as "yusho equivalent", at least in the post-Futahaguro era. Just look what happened to Konishiki and his Y-3rd place-Y strike in 1994. 

Edited by Hankegami

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3 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

We have a very recent precedent with Terunofuji, who had to wait for a JY in his second tournament as Ozeki to get the rope despite two back-to-back yusho as Sekiwake and Ozeki respectively. In short, Sekiwake yusho "do not count", or at least can provide only extra support. I am pretty confident that, even in case Mitakeumi wins this yusho, he will have to provide at least a JY next basho to be considered for promotion. On the other hand, he NEEDS to get at least a JY this time if he wants his Hatsu yusho to not get wasted (and a Y or JY in Natsu). It was always clear to me that the NSK regards only JY as "yusho equivalent", at least in the post-Futahaguro era. Just look what happened to Konishiki and his Y-3rd place-Y strike in 1994. 

Yes and no. I got the feeling Terunofuji wasn’t allowed to claim credit for his Sekiwake yusho twice, having already used them for his Ozeki promotion. 

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1 minute ago, Eikokurai said:

Yes and no. I got the feeling Terunofuji wasn’t allowed to claim credit for his Sekiwake yusho twice, having already used them for his Ozeki promotion. 

Isn't it the same with Mitakeumi? His last yusho was instrumental to gain him his promotion.

Anyway, we have a further blueprint case from 1936-37: Futabayama. He won the 1936 Natsu as Sekiwake and the 1937 Haru (the very next basho in a two basho per year era) as Ozeki, yet the Yokozuna Commitee - I think it was still the House of Yoshida Tsukasa back then - did not promote him to Yokozuna until after he won a third basho in a row in 1937 Natsu. And keep in mind all three were zensho-yusho.

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1 minute ago, Hankegami said:

Isn't it the same with Mitakeumi? His last yusho was instrumental to gain him his promotion

Yes, true.

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I think it's safe to say Mitakeumi had better win this basho to even force the conversation of what target he needs to reach next basho, much less his promotion. Considering it's Mitakeumi and his record flatters to deceive, it's premature to talk about a rope run. 

As for Abi, I don't think he gets an early promotion unless we are left with only one ozeki two basho later. The DDs in a row cancel out his disgrace, IMO. 

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3 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I think it's safe to say Mitakeumi had better win this basho to even force the conversation of what target he needs to reach next basho, much less his promotion. Considering it's Mitakeumi and his record flatters to deceive, it's premature to talk about a rope run. 

As for Abi, I don't think he gets an early promotion unless we are left with only one ozeki two basho later. The DDs in a row cancel out his disgrace, IMO. 

Honestly I think a JY will do this time (although a basho is better, of course). The Futahaguro scare had calmed down since the 2010s and JY are now righteously regarded as yusho equivalents. I would not be surprised if the YDC would meet even for a Mitakeumi Hatsu-Haru-Natsu Y-JY-JY. But of course Mita dearest must get them in first place.

About Abi, I am understood there are precedents with Ozeki runs started at M6? Disgraced or not, his results have been impressive. Also, his extra JY as M15 might provide extra support for his case. I believe that, if he provides 33+ wins as M6-Sk-Sk, they will promote him (well, at least with a 10+ result each time). Otherwise, they would cause a precedent which would seriously harm future Ozeki hopefuls. They know how close they were to have only Terunofuji as Yokozuna-Ozeki if Mitakeumi did not show up.

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

About Abi, I am understood there are precedents with Ozeki runs started at M6? Disgraced or not, his results have been impressive. Also, his extra JY as M15 might provide extra support for his case. I believe that, if he provides 33+ wins as M6-Sk-Sk, they will promote him (well, at least with a 10+ result each time). Otherwise, they would cause a precedent which would seriously harm future Ozeki hopefuls. They know how close they were to have only Terunofuji as Yokozuna-Ozeki if Mitakeumi did not show up.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&n_basho=4&form1_rank=M&form2_rank=S, K&form3_rank=S, K&form4_rank=O&columns=4

Not ones that are easily applied. The only two times where someone was promoted to ozeki with a three-basho run starting outside the joi were Otori in 1911 and Minanogawa in 1933. I haven't the time to look at their extenuating circumstances in detail, but I think it's pretty safe to say that any pre-war patterns can be discounted for the purposes of modern promotion sensibilities. 

M6 JY or no, Abi still didn't fight the joi for the first week, so the value of that result is limited, if you ask me. With Takakeisho looking likely to clear kadoban, the NSK are hardly that desperate for another ozeki (unless both Mitakeumi and Takakeisho go kadoban next basho and Abi DD JYs again this basho and next). That's a pretty narrow set of circumstances if you ask me, so it's much more likely Abi gets the nod, if at all, in Nagoya rather than Natsu. 

Edited by Seiyashi
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So the Nodowa is Terunofuji's kryptonite it would seem

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As an ozeki, Mitakeumi is 2 results away from the rope - always. We have the very recent case of Terunofuji to confirm that.
With the yokozuna's bionic knees in need of maintenance, and the 2 other ozeki struggling, Mitakeumi will probably never have a better opportunity to go for the rope than he has now.
We shall just have to wait and see whether or not he can grab it, but (as I pointed out on day 2) it's a possibility that he could be a yokozuna in July.

Regarding Abi, my ten pennorth is that the NSK isn't going to show any favour to a bad boy coming back from a suspension, so this basho's result could only be the start of an ozeki run.

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Quite funny that Mitakeumi-Yokozuna-musings start on the day of his first loss.

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Anyone feel as I do that down in Sandanme, future hopeful Miyagi was denied a rightful victory against Kyoda by (1) referee Kimura Kazuma and (2) junior Shimpancho Minato who did not call for a monoii review.

Wrestlers themselves usually know better than the gyoji who really won in a bout.  Miyagi did not attempt a Hakuho protest, but he did have a little smirk on his face as he climbed back onto the ring.

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

Takayasu is looking strong and alert, starting 5-0, though in his last appearance he opened 4-1 and finished 6-9. That said, his fade in November was partly because he met the sanyaku in week two. This basho they don't seem like much of a threat, if he even faces them at all.

Both sekiwake are 4-1, and Mitakeumi looks good. Is TnoF healthy? If so, that's four very hard matches to get through. And both kadoban Ozeki will be in desperation mode if they've pulled themselves back together enough to still have a shot at a KK. Don't count on it being a cakewalk for him.

Edited by Sue

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Another ignominious day on which the big question is "Who didn't lose?" :-|

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Sue said:

Both sekiwake are 4-1, and Mitakeumi looks good. Is TnoF healthy? If so, that's four very hard matches to get through. And both kadoban Ozeki will be in desperation mode if they've pulled themselves back together enough to still have a shot at a KK. Don't count on it being a cakewalk for him.

The sekiwake are a problem but no, Mitakeumi doesn't look as good as Takayasu, and Terunofuji's form has given cause for concern, not to mention Takayasu was one of the few to routinely give Terunofuji trouble even when he was looking unstoppable. Say rather 2 hard matches rather than 4, and I suspect by the time Takayasu is called up to meet the two kadoban ozeki, at least one won't be in desperation any more whether from KK or MK, so won't be a worthy gatekeeper in the NSK's eyes against an upstart maegashira. So at most 3.

Edited by Seiyashi
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14 minutes ago, Asojima said:

 

Another ignominious day on which the big question is "Who didn't lose?" :-|

My guess would be approximately half of the contestants.

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48 minutes ago, Sue said:

Both sekiwake are 4-1, and Mitakeumi looks good. Is TnoF healthy? If so, that's four very hard matches to get through. And both kadoban Ozeki will be in desperation mode if they've pulled themselves back together enough to still have a shot at a KK. Don't count on it being a cakewalk for him.

By prefacing the point with reference to his previous week-two fade against the sanyaku, I was underlining that it wouldn’t be a cakewalk. I only draw attention to the fact that the sanyaku who took wins off him in November are the same ones struggling this basho: Terunofuji, Shodai and Takekeisho.

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On 14/01/2022 at 13:56, Yubinhaad said:

According to my notes, he is the 6th-oldest:


Winner			Basho, Day		Yokozuna	Age of Winner

1) Oshio		1940 Haru, Day 6	Minanogawa	39 years, 5 months, 6 days
2) Kitanonada		1961 Natsu, Day 3	Asashio		38 years, 3 months, 8 days
3) Nayoroiwa		1952 Aki, Day 5		Chiyonoyama	37 years, 11 months, 29 days
4) Dewanishiki		1963 Haru, Day 4	Taiho		37 years, 7 months, 26 days
5) Aminishiki		2016 Hatsu, Day 3	Kakuryu		37 years, 3 months, 9 days
6) Tamawashi		2022 Hatsu, Day 6	Terunofuji	37 years, 1 month, 29 days


Tamawashi is now the 5th-oldest kinboshi winner, at 37 years, 4 months, 1 day.

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42 minutes ago, lackmaker said:

My guess would be approximately half of the contestants.

It depends on whether you are talking about the record or the practice.

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Posted (edited)

At this point, I think we can all agree that Terunofuji is not in the yusho race, but that is not to say that he can't still make an impact on it.

Any Yokozuna – more so than an Ozeki – is expected to win all (OK, most) of his first week's bouts.  Losses are more forgivable if they come in the second week, when the competition gets tougher (at least on paper).  But it should be pointed out that both of Terunofuji's losses thus far came against rank-and-filers, and are thus categorised as gold star losses.  Frankly, they are to Yokozuna what sashichigae are to tategyoji, i.e., a significant embarrassment.  But fans seem to be more sympathetic to Grand Champions than to (cough, cough) tate-gyoji.

For those members who follow oozumo on Abema TV, it was interesting to hear Tamawashi spelling out his strategy against Terunofuji in an interview before the tournament began.  The key, according to him, was knocking the big Grand Champion off balance.  That's two straight wins for the "iron man" against the current sole Yokozuna.

Edited by Amamaniac

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Posted (edited)

Shodai finally got his first win. Hope he's coming out of his depression now.

Edited by Barutokai
- whole sentences better

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Shodai is already deep in desperation mode. I somehow want him to pull himself together and make something happen, but I don't see it. How far off are we from the Takayasu collapse? My guess would be five matches. 

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14 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

Okay, just to provoke a conversation, consider the prospect of Mitakeumi winning this yusho, his second in a row and fourth overall. What are the prospects of an early rope? Obviously, this would involve some precedent setting (I assume, will check) since he’d pass through Ozeki in one tournament, but could three Sekiwake yusho in the past be enough to back up one Ozeki yusho and justify a promotion? I think it’s highly unlikely, but it’s an intriguing plot line. 

Exactly zero chance.

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