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Haru 2022 Discussion Thread (SPOILERS!)

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9 minutes ago, Kyokufuji said:

Especially with these three. Neither Shishi and Hokuseiho look like they understand what they are supposed to be doing out there. Kinbozan seems ok.

In Hokuseiho's defence, someone put it best when they said "he wins despite his sumo". It might not look pretty, but I'm not going to judge him before I see him in juryo just because his style looks weird.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Rocks said:

That is very clear cut.  Now, Takayasu's competition averages an KK, Waka's didn't. That pretty significant given 22 of the 42 KKed. Waka's competition is going to rank higher by definition but did they by record? 

EDIT: Also FWIW -- they were even with in the category of "Opponent's who KK'd", with ten apiece.

1 hour ago, Godango said:
  • Wakatakakage's opponents had a combined 116 wins,  7.73 on average, median of 8.
  • Takayasu's opponents had a combined 121 wins,  8.07 on average, median of 8.

The slightest of edges to Takayasu, though really it's negligible.

To be clear, 7.73 rounds up to eight just as 8.07 rounds down, and with them both having a median of 8 it's difficult to make this argument around KK status.

Looking at it another way for further clarity (though this is gonna get nerdy):

  • Wakatakakage's opponents won 51.6% of their matches
  • Takayasu's opponents won 53.8% of their matches.
  • 51.6% is ~96% of 53.8%, so ~4% lower.
  • A 4% difference is statistically insignificant in datasets such as these.
Edited by Godango
KK comment.
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I'd like to do a strength of schedule analysis but I went to sumodb and saw that Takayasu has a 12-12 record against Aoiyama and now I'm too shook to do anything.

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37 minutes ago, maglor said:
48 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Remember when Ichinojo, in his Makuuchi debut (!) at M10 (!!) had to fight two Ozeki and two Yokozuna in the final five days, only getting an easier opponent on the final day after he lost to Hakuho to drop a win back? This is par for the course; what's unusual is the recent san'yaku weakness that, combined with the schedulers not taking them seriously until it was too late, kept contending lower maegashira from being similarly challenged.

Or when Konishiki, in his 2nd ever basho at Makuuchi, had to fight 2 Yokozuna, 2 Ozeki, and a Sekiwake in the last 5 days from M6....

Or when Toyonoshima had to fight Hakuho, two Ozeki, Sekiwake Kakuryu, and M1E Kisenosato from M9 in his last 5 days

Or(possibly the best one), when Kaiketsu from M7 had to fight a Yokozuna, three Ozeki, two Sekiwake, and a Komusubi in his last 7 days. Then he lost to a Sekiwake in the playoff.

It's funny this par for the course, 6 sanyaku the last 6 days for anybody save a Yokozuna or an Ozeki, almost never seems to happen. I'm told there's a ton of examples yet they fail to materialize somehow. The only comparable example is 7, which seems WOW, until you realize there were 10 sanyaku and only 36 makuuchi total in 1972. Over 1/4  of the guys were sanyaku. If you managed to win all your matches you were going to be facing a bunch of sanyaku. FAST.  Still, He got into a playoff. So wow. I'm sure Tochiozan probably thought he got shafted facing 5 sanyaku when Kyokutenho got exactly 2 last last 2 days except Tochiozan was gifted a fusen on day 15 himself. Who did Toyonoshima face on Day 11 again?  And he got an M1 his last day. 

1 hour ago, maglor said:

I am still baffled as to what the problem is to the yusho leader, and the guy who is one win behind, getting sanyaku rikishi on the last day. Why should they get maegashira opponents if they can fight a sekiwake and a komusubi. Why should you get anything less than the hardest available competition. Every single guy on this supposedly crazy hard run for Takayasu Wakatakakage also fought

And I don't understand why anyone would be baffled by this. This isn't a single elimination tourney with progressively harder opponents. At least it sure hasn't been and I don't think it should be become one. It's the best record over 15 days. If an M7 has to face 6 sanyaku  let him face some in the first week the same as the Sekiwake and Komusubi.  Should lower ranked guys on a yusho run have to face some stiff competition to grab the yusho? Yes. Should it amount to a manner in which practically only the Yokozuna would ever have to face? Facing the very best by rank in the last 6 days. Heck no. the great majority of those ranked maegashira don't expect to win the yusho. Tell them at the start of the tournament  they'll be facing a Yokozuna schedule the second week if they happen to do well and they'll be fixing matches left and right. What's the point of going all out if you are guaranteed to have the hammer come down on you if you do? The point is to show you are worthy of the title. Not beat everybody in sanyaku that doesn't flat out stink that basho. 

 

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1 hour ago, Godango said:

To be clear, 7.73 rounds up to eight just as 8.07 rounds down, and with them both having a median of 8 it's difficult to make this argument around KK status.

Looking at it another way for further clarity (though this is gonna get nerdy):

  • Wakatakakage's opponents won 51.6% of their matches
  • Takayasu's opponents won 53.8% of their matches.
  • 51.6% is ~96% of 53.8%, so ~4% lower.
  • A 4% difference is statistically insignificant in datasets such as these.

That's mighty convenient rounding there. I'm sure the kyokai will do the same making the banzuke.  There are 21 ranks of  rikishi. meaning 4% is one rank on the banzuke. I'm sure the rikishi themselves as they compete see 8 wins in hand as opposed to 7 with a chance to win another as very different. 

I wouldn't call 4% statistically insignificant.  Most polls would consider above a 3% MOE a large one and certainly not insignificant. Waka and Taka faced over half the participants of the basho. That's a pretty big sample. I would call a 4% difference in their opponents significant. Less so given Waka's opponents did face stiffer competition on average but I would still not say insignificant. 

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27 minutes ago, Rocks said:

Tell them at the start of the tournament  they'll be facing a Yokozuna schedule the second week if they happen to do well and they'll be fixing matches left and right.

And with that, we are done here.

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And we are also being a bit unfair about his late basho fade… yes he lost his last 3 in a row but he did end up with a very often yusho winning score of 12-3… it was still a great effort and lost only because waka was on some sort of trance, I’ve never seen him that focused and on fire. 
 

it’s easier to take it in if you forget about all the curse and bad luck nonsense and just accept that this time around he did pretty well but lost to the better guy, he was through and through the second beat rikishi in this tournament and the score reflects that. Nothing to snuff at, he was fighting at ozeki level 

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1 hour ago, maglor said:

Or when Konishiki, in his 2nd ever basho at Makuuchi, had to fight 2 Yokozuna, 2 Ozeki, and a Sekiwake in the last 5 days from M6....

Or when Toyonoshima had to fight Hakuho, two Ozeki, Sekiwake Kakuryu, and M1E Kisenosato from M9 in his last 5 days

Or(possibly the best one), when Kaiketsu from M7 had to fight a Yokozuna, three Ozeki, two Sekiwake, and a Komusubi in his last 7 days. Then he lost to a Sekiwake in the playoff.

I have to smile at this post. @maglor  tells this narrative with such wonderful, building excitement!  I was expecting the next example to be: "Homasho had to fight 2 Yokozuna, 3 Ozeki, all of Sanyaku, the Front Four of the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Ghidora.  If he hadn't inadvertently pulled Ghidora's scales for a hansoku, he would have won that yusho."

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, Rocks said:

That's mighty convenient rounding there.

It's maths.

36 minutes ago, Rocks said:

There are 21 ranks of  rikishi. meaning 4% is one rank on the banzuke.

This conflates the rank vs. win record issue, but I would note that 4% of 42 is 1.68, which I guess is 2 with some 'might convenient rounding' to give that full rank difference.

36 minutes ago, Rocks said:

I wouldn't call 4% statistically insignificant.  Most polls would consider above a 3% MOE a large one and certainly not insignificant. Waka and Taka faced over half the participants of the basho. That's a pretty big sample. I would call a 4% difference in their opponents significant. Less so given Waka's opponents did face stiffer competition on average but I would still not say insignificant. 

This isn't a poll. These are two datasets based on observational results, a MOE doesn't exist here. The significance level for studies such as these is typically set to 5%. 

Also, either 4% is 1 rank difference, or it's significant. Which is it? 

I stand by the difference in overall opposition quality being negligible, which leads to a play-off making complete sense. The data supports that conclusion.

Wakatakakage then got that playoff win, which combined with his regulation win over Takayasu more than makes up for any intrinsic factors that may have been involved.

Edited by Godango
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Wakatakakage fully deserved the yusho.   Despite having a great basho, Takayasu squandered his opportunities to take the yusho.  There is no controversy here.  I just hope Takayasu continues with a good form going forward.  

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Rocks said:

It's funny this par for the course, 6 sanyaku the last 6 days for anybody save a Yokozuna or an Ozeki, almost never seems to happen. I'm told there's a ton of examples yet they fail to materialize somehow.

 

A super simple search shows these results for the last 7 days. For 6 days there are many more. Its something anybody (i.e. I'm saying YOU could do it) can search the db for, no post-processing required.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi_basho.aspx?r=129&b=200105

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi_basho.aspx?r=10&b=200001

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi_basho.aspx?r=6491&b=201701

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi_basho.aspx?r=1219&b=200909

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi_basho.aspx?r=1421&b=200609

 

Edited by Tsuchinoninjin

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1 minute ago, Godango said:

Wakatakakage then got that playoff win, which combined with his regulation win over Takayasu more than makes up for any intrinsic factors that may have been involved.

Waka totally deserved to win that yusho. Nobody is arguing he didn't, not even me. Tajayasu and 2 chances to beat him which is one more than most get. He didn't. Only that his second half schedule was unfair which I think history shows it was and that he wasn't lucky to have been there simply because he faced a few more lower rankers, but better competitors, this basho. 

This is like Waka is Croatia  and Taka the Netherlands at the World Cup only the winner gets it based on the record after 15 matches. Both will face Germany, Italy and Brazil in the last few matches. Croatia  has tougher teams like France and Spain early when their back isn't to the wall yet and one sucks. The Netherlands get some minnows in it's first half who are middling but has to face the traditional powers all in a row with their backs to the wall or trying to avoid an embarrassment in the second. Croatia gets the Netherlands and a minnow who is doing well.  Croatia wins in a playoff. No doubt Croatia deserves the Cup and Fifa would rank them higher based on the last win and the ranks of the reams they faced. But I doubt anybody would say the Netherlands had it much easier than Croatia or choked.

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4 minutes ago, Rocks said:

Waka totally deserved to win that yusho. Nobody is arguing he didn't, not even me.

For sure, I get this. I just disagree with the premise that the scheduling was really all that much tougher or unfair. Even in the form of your metaphor, so I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on that one extremely finicky point.

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

A super simple shows these results for the last 7 days. For 6 days there are many more. Its something anybody (i.e. I'm saying YOU could do it) can search the db for, no post-processing required.

Yes, that was the schedule for Joi, How many were in contention for the yusho after day Day 11 if at all? Joi are supposed to face all of them. They are not only fighting for the yusho. They are fighting for a raise.  A raise they can only get by doing better than them. A raise someone below Joi might not even get if they win the yusho, never mind do well.  I wonder why we don't see this any more?  Maybe it was a bit unfair?

Edited by Rocks

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

A super simple search shows these results for the last 7 days. For 6 days there are many more. Its something anybody (i.e. I'm saying YOU could do it) can search the db for, no post-processing required.

Here's a search specifically for 6 san'yaku opponents in the final six days for M6 or lower. There are other similar searches one could do that would provide additional examples of tough finishing fight cards, but it does show that Takayasu's treatment is hardly unprecedented.

And here are some who were definitely in the yusho race, and even won it on occasion (e.g. Takatoriki in March 2002).

Edited by Reonito

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20 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Here's a search specifically for 6 san'yaku opponents in the final six days for M6 or lower. There are other similar searches one could do that would provide additional examples of tough finishing fight cards, but it does show that Takayasu's treatment is hardly unprecedented.

Unprecedented? No. In the last 40 years? In the era of 42 rikishi? Even those few prior only one was actually in contention after Day 11.  They had the second week schedule they did to fill a roll and give the top guys competition with a decent record. Something a lot more likely with fewer maegashira.

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We need a "shifting goalposts" thread.

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56 minutes ago, Rocks said:

This is like Waka is Croatia  and Taka the Netherlands at the World Cup only the winner gets it based on the record after 15 matches. Both will face Germany, Italy and Brazil in the last few matches. Croatia  has tougher teams like France and Spain early when their back isn't to the wall yet and one sucks. The Netherlands get some minnows in it's first half who are middling but has to face the traditional powers all in a row with their backs to the wall or trying to avoid an embarrassment in the second. Croatia gets the Netherlands and a minnow who is doing well.  Croatia wins in a playoff. No doubt Croatia deserves the Cup and Fifa would rank them higher based on the last win and the ranks of the reams they faced. But I doubt anybody would say the Netherlands had it much easier than Croatia or choked.

Off topic, but the World Cup, and all FIFA/UEFA/etc tournaments are organized in such a way that the highest-ranked teams are kept apart as long as possible so that the best teams get as far as possible, which is better for TV ratings and the quality of matches. Nobody wants the top-four ranked sides ending up drawn in a group together and four rubbish teams together, so that two good teams are eliminated in round one and two bad teams progress. Thus it's always the case that teams get easier schedules in the early rounds and harder schedules later, whoever they are. The media likes to talk of 'Groups of Death', and there is usually one that has strong teams outside of the top 8, but ultimately it's all based on rankings at the time of the draw, so no team gets a schedule that on paper is that much harder or easier than another. 

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Just now, Godango said:

We need a "shifting goalposts" thread.

Perfectly timed for my football-related post!

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14 minutes ago, Rocks said:

Unprecedented? No. In the last 40 years? In the era of 42 rikishi? Even those few prior only one was actually in contention after Day 11.  They had the second week schedule they did to fill a roll and give the top guys competition with a decent record. Something a lot more likely with fewer maegashira.

Okay, the best I can do under those criteria is M9 Kotomitsuki in 2000, very much in the yusho race, given a final five day slate of YYOOO and M14 (!) Takatoriki, also in 2000, taking the yusho after facing KSYYS in the crucial final days.

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4 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Off topic, but the World Cup, and all FIFA/UEFA/etc tournaments are organized in such a way that the highest-ranked teams are kept apart as long as possible so that the best teams get as far as possible, which is better for TV ratings and the quality of matches. Nobody wants the top-four ranked sides ending up drawn in a group together and four rubbish teams together, so that two good teams are eliminated in round one and two bad teams progress. Thus it's always the case that teams get easier schedules in the early rounds and harder schedules later, whoever they are. The media likes to talk of 'Groups of Death', and there is usually one that has strong teams outside of the top 8, but ultimately it's all based on rankings at the time of the draw, so no team gets a schedule that on paper is that much harder or easier than another. 

Actually, that's just the opposite of what those in countries that rarely make it out of the group stage, the vast majority of the world, want. if one of the traditional powers is doing well they are  very likely to be in contention at the end no matter what way you do it. Ratings are better overall for it if the most possible from around the world  go farther and it expands interest in the sport. Nobody, besides me and a bunch of other Italians cried very hard when Italy didn't get in.  Nobody is that upset a 4th ranked Spain doesn't get to the semi's just because they lost to the same teams they would have lost to in the last 2 matches in the group stage instead. IMO anyway. They do the rankings and spread them out in groups to satisfy those teams, not the vast majority of those around the world. 

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This has gone on long enough (from myself included). Can we please not further bastardise this thread into being about the inner workings of FIFA World Cup seeding. (Laughing...).

@Rocks has made his mind up about the reasonableness of scheduling and he can have that opinion if he likes. I personally am over the Gish gallop of it all.

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8 minutes ago, Godango said:

This has gone on long enough (from myself included). Can we please not further bastardise this thread into being about the inner workings of FIFA World Cup seeding. (Laughing...).

@Rocks has made his mind up about the reasonableness of scheduling and he can have that opinion if he likes. I personally am over the Gish gallop of it all.

Well, I learned something new!  Not necessarily about the reasonableness of scheduling but what Gish gallop means!!!  (Had to look it up).

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In the past few years, a few M17s have taken the yusho.  If Takayasu was ranked at M17, I am sure he'd taken the yusho outright.  I am sure of it.   :-P

 

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1 hour ago, Reonito said:

Okay, the best I can do under those criteria is M9 Kotomitsuki in 2000, very much in the yusho race, given a final five day slate of YYOOO and M14 (!) Takatoriki, also in 2000, taking the yusho after facing KSYYS in the crucial final days.

Very impressive, but still not 6. And that despite the fact there were at least 7 Ys and Os alone in those basho.A sanyaku at least 1/3 bigger these guys didn't even face as many Sanyaku as Takayasu did. One wonders how much the kyokai was interested in giving say Kotonowaka and Takaysu the same sort of shot at the yusho these guys had as opposed to scheduling to insure the least amount of guys had a legitimate claim on a Sanyaku slot next basho.  It's easy to be more nonchalant about making sure the contenders  face the absolute toughest schedule week 2 in an era of 3 great Yokozuna having the cash rolling in  I guess. 

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