Haru 2022 Discussion Thread (SPOILERS!)

[Tigerboy1966 1,376]

25 minutes ago, shumitto said:

Another rikishi that really delivered was Kitanowaka in lower Juryo. He is nimble, strong, has good technique. I hope to see him in Makuuchi soon. 

He may also be the oldest-looking 21-year-old in human history. I bet he never gets ID'd... not that he would ever engage in any activity that requires ID, I hasten to add.

All in all this was an excellent basho for up-and-comers with names beginning in "K". The four lower divisions went to Kinbozan, Kanzaki, Kotetsu and Kototebakari, all of whom looked impressive.

[robnplunder 974]

2 hours ago, rzombie1988 said:

There's a real murderer's row of guys coming in from Makushita soon. Makuuchi better be prepared. Shishi, Hokuseiho and Kinbozan are all 190+ cm and they are coming.

I don't think any Makuuchi riksihi are shaking in their boots.   I've watched ozumo long enough to know people tend to overestimate up-and-coming prospects, especially, if they have the size.  

[Seiyashi 4,071]

48 minutes ago, shumitto said:

Okinoumi has been having some energy issues. After the first week, he tends to look spent. This time he was spent from day 1. I guess that is it for him.

Without checking the DB, the tell-tale sign for this will be Kotoyūki moving off the Kimigahama share. That'll indicate Okinoumi's retirement is impending. Okinoumi might also be doing Kotoyūki a service by staying active till the latter can find a longer-term kabu.

[Rocks 1,807]

5 hours ago, maglor said:

Takayasu has already had enough of an advantage getting to beat up on lower rankers in the first 9 days while WTK had to fight the top guys. Now you're complaining because Takayasu gets the highest ranked rikishi he hasn't fought yet on the last day? He had 3 chances to win and choked all three. Abi is the highest ranked opponent available and is guaranteed to be motivated for their match. What do you want, for the schedulers to give him a lower ranker who isn't motivated so Takayasu can win a yusho without earning it?

I want them to do the job they are paid for and face similar competition with similar motivations when they face them. A higher rank doesn't guarantee you are a better competitor EVERY bout. The idea that Takanosho, Ura and Meisei were stiffer competition THIS basho doesn't compute. Also when you face the toughest guys THIS basho  make s a big difference. 

People go on about beating up on low or sub par rikishi. First that who is he is supposed to fight at his rank. Second if rank is the be all then why should Takayasu face a harder schedule than any high ranker? Show me a sanyaku or joi who faced 6 sanyaku in a row ANY time this basho, let alone his last 6 bouts. A time when these guys fight their hardest if they have any shot at a KK. I'll guarantee you guys like Tamawashi and Daieisho were much more motivated on Day 15 at 7-7 than  they were when Wakaktakakage faced them in the first week during their grind. Even Abi fought harder than when Waka faced him Day 10 when Abi was 6-4 and probably figured he would make his KK easy with 5 Days left. Ichinojo had 9 wins and had beaten 2 Ozeki an S and K. How is he not the stiffer competition on Day 15? Heck even Kotonowaka got Daieisho Day 10 despite being technically one rank higher than Takayasu. Takayasu gets a shin sanyaku at 4-5 desperate to bounce back and save his newly acquired pay raise.

And speaking of pay let's not forget the Sanyaku are being paid to face the stiffest competition or at least have a higher shot of getting that raise like the Joi. A 4-11 Takanosho will earn more than both Takayasu and Kotonowaka will this basho AND until the start of the next. Kotonowaka and Takayasu had to face 7-7 sanyaku on Day 15 to have a shot at earning a pay raise. Daieisho got an M10 Aoiyama. Yet who do you think will get that open slot despite their having double digits wins? There is more on the line than the yusho. 

 

Takaysu needed to win the yusho, he didn't. Wakatakage did and he more than deserves that cup. But he had an easier path to it. That isn't normal when there is a sanyaku and a maegashira in the mix at the end but it was this basho. That isn't fair IMO.

Edited March 27, 2022 by Rocks

[just_some_guy 256]

Speaking on Wakatakakage's Ozeki chances (while getting ahead of ourselves and assuming he gets, let's say, 12 wins next basho):

While the first of the three was at M1, there's a precedent -- Terunofuji. Though it's not exactly the same it'd be the same win total. Also, Wakatakakage was 8-7 at M1 the prior basho and only moved from West to East. One could speculate that since he could've ended up Komusubi under different circumstances, hitting a 9-6 at an M1 that could've easily been K is good enough to be in the run.

HOWEVER

There's no "need" for an Ozeki right now. We've got three, who (while hardly paragons of reliability) are not kadoban (yet/anymore) and usually seem capable of at least muddling through with 8 wins. Because of this I don't expect an overly generous promotion, and wouldn't be surprised to see them do like they did with Takakeisho and ask for one more basho as confirmation.

[Rocks 1,807]

5 hours ago, Sakura said:

You mean like Meisei and Ura? Their Sanyaku slates were pretty similar except that Wakatakakge got to face Takanosho and Takayasu had to face, well Wakatakakage. 

They both had to fight weaker opponents in the first third as part of the usual rotation, but they moved Takayasu up to face the sanyaku quite early. I think the schedules are pretty comparable. I'm not willing to throw words like `epic collapse' out there even though Takayasu lost three bouts in the last two days. He was facing the top ranked rikishi and two Sekiwake with a lot to fight for.

Last year, when he lost a two-win cushion fighting and losing to guys like Aoiyama, was an epic collapse. This was him just being the second best rikishi this basho.

 I would agree. I don't see where anyone gets how a M7 choked by losing to a Sekiwake and a Ozeki in the last 3 days of a basho with the yusho on the line. Wakatakakage lost just as many the last 3 days. Plus Wakatakakage lost to a maegashira ranked 4 ranks below him. Takaysu lost only to Sanyaku.  Wakatakakage won the yusho because he won his H2Hs with Takaysu. Both were good matches. This isn't Ozeki Takayasu and he's 32. You have to wonder if he would have even been this close without resting last basho.  Makes you wonder if he had been Joi like Tamawashi was when he won if he wouldn't have won also having faced most of the stiff competition early when he still had something in the tank. Nobody collapsed save maybe Takanosho, Ura and Meisei. 

[Akinomaki 39,789]

1 hour ago, shumitto said:

Kotoshoho is has finally managed a Makuuchi kachi-koshi, but I can't say I am totally convinced. He had a deadly combination of speed  coupled with precise moves I don't see anymore.

Finally? The newcomer of the year 2020 started in makuuchi with 3 kachikoshi, one of them 10-5. After a 4 basho slump he gave a quite convincing performance, like in his sekitori debut with a juryo yusho on top and now this 9-6 on his makuuchi return. I don't expect him to catch up with Kotonowaka, but a new highest makuuchi rank this year should be in reach.

[hakutorizakura 590]

Wakatakakage owned KotonoWAKA and TAKAyasu, so he won   Well done, he's been looking very calm and confident this basho. And as mentioned already it would be exciting to see if he can climb higher ("Chiyonofuji"? We'll see).

And Takayasu really needs to get that number 13 if he wants the yusho next time. Currently 12 is his limit...

All in all, it was an entertaining basho with a great climax. I like cats, but when the cat is away, mice will play (why not if they put on a good show!).

[shumitto 418]

19 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

Finally? The newcomer of the year 2020 started in makuuchi with 3 kachikoshi, one of them 10-5. After a 4 basho slump he gave a quite convincing performance, like in his sekitori debut with a juryo yusho on top and now this 9-6 on his makuuchi return. I don't expect him to catch up with Kotonowaka, but a new highest makuuchi rank this year should be in reach.

Maybe I should rephrase it into "After a long while". At any rate the idea is that 7 ( or 8, it depends on how you count it) basho without a Makuuchi kachi-koshi is not a good thing, and good results notwithstanding, I still don't see the same sumo content he once displayed.

[Rocks 1,807]

9 minutes ago, maglor said:

Takayasu had a hard schedule for 6 days. Wakatakakage had a hard schedule for 15 days. Wakatakakage had to play catch-up the entire way because he lost to Kiribayama, who Takayasu didn't face. He had a tiring minute+ bout vs Ichinojo, who Takayasu didn't face. Facing 6 sanyaku in a row isn't even that out of the ordinary. Terunofuji pulling out of the basho midway messed up the pairings; in Daieisho's yusho run he fought all 7 sanyaku the first 7 days, without getting to warm up vs weaker opponents. Take a look at Daieisho's yusho run from Maegashira. Then take a look at Takayasu's. One was much easier.

I would agree. Daieisho's was much easier. I wasn't aware these guys "warm up" in the first week. Seems to me the start of the basho or  least the first week is when you are at your best physically. Certainly that is true for Takaysu.  Daieisho had an injured ozeki in Takakeisho day 2 who would later pull out. He had beat him all of once in their prior 9 meetings. There wasn't much yusho pressure on him until he beat Terunofuji on Day 6 and then swept the sanyaku.  He would go on to lose to 2 guys ranked below him and face Ryuden and Tamawashi who already had MKs and a 7-7 Okinoumi in his final 3 days. If Daieisho does that schedule in reverse I doubt he wins the yusho.  He's hung on to joi since then mostly by beating guys lower ranked than him late in the basho. 

 

25 minutes ago, maglor said:

I will go on about sub-par opposition. Rank means a hell of a lot when you look at the standard of competition in the joi and outside of it. Takanosho is going to go down to M7 or M8 and get double digits easy.

Yes they do. Over time. Not necessarily within a basho. Double digits is never easy. I don't care where you are on the banzuke because you are guaranteed to be facing guys ranked much higher than you late in the basho. Even if Takanosho drops that far he lost to MK M7/8 in Okinoumi and Sadanoumi. Unless he recovers a lot he won't be getting double digits next basho.  Rank matters, but not as much as talent, ability and health. The guys who rise to the top get there because of who they are. Not because they faced a bunch of sup par guys on the way up. How you are doing THIS basho matters as much.  Takakeisho and Abi are harder competition generally than Azumaryu. But the later tis pretty deadly when he's on. I'll guarantee you anyone looking for a win this basho would have rather faced Takanosho, Meisei or Ura this basho than a 10-3 Azumaryu.

 

Would Takaysu go 9-0 to start if he had Waka's schedule? Doubt it, but neither did Waka.  Does he beat Meisei, Ura and Takanosho? Yes, he does. Tamawashi, Onsoho, Daieisho, ichinjo? Given his record against them the past year or so and how good he looked early, very probably. The only guy to likely give him real trouble was the same guy Wakatakakage lost to, Kiribayama. 

 

55 minutes ago, maglor said:

You think his schedule next basho will be easier than this one?

On paper? No. For Takayasu? Yes, as he'll at least face some sanyaku early when he's in the best shape.  Guys who by definition are doing well lately.   And if he's facing lower rankers late the way Daieisio and Tamwashi did with the yusho on the line I'm pretty sure he'll finish better than he did this basho. 

[Rocks 1,807]

@maglor I'll tell you what. Let's apply your thinking to Wakatakakage. If he beats sup par competition like undefeated Takayasu and 1 loss Kotonowaka in the first week are those wins as impressive? They aren't harder than say Takanosho or Mesei by your thinking.   Or is it because it was the second week and they were doing great and in the running for the yusho? What if Wakatakakage was facing a Sekiwake in the yusho race day 11 as Takayasu had to? Do you think he wins  for sure? Does Wakatakakage beat say a 10-0 Takanosho or even Meisei on Day 11? Probably, he has good records against them. At least when they do poorly.

There is a big difference between a lower rank being worse  which is true by definition OVER time and saying one guy is automatically better in a given match simply based on their ranks. They have them actually fight for a reason.  Shimanoumi may not be steady joi material but he beat 4 guys ranked higher than him,  got his KK and did it all on what amounts to 1 leg. He managed to get 8 KK out of his 17 in makuuchi along with 2 kanto sho. He's had a yusho on every level except makushita and makuuchi. Back to back 13 wins yusho  in Juryo. That's a heck of a lot more than most of these guys can say.  

[Kuhne 57]

People love to say he is cursed and unlucky but at the end of the day Taco had it more or less in his hands (waka did lose to shodai after all) yet still managed to lose the last 3 matches in a row, day 14 , 15 and the playoff. You can’t win a basho going 0-3 on your last three, he just can’t handle the pressure. 

Waka was in the same boat and went 2-1 losing his only match of the last 3 to a super power shodai who no one saw coming, I frankly thought he was going to lay down and give waka the freebie, having achieved his KK and all.

Yes it’s painful to be a taco fan, i really do feel sorry for him and his fans but this time around Hiro’s annoying saying “will he be a champ or will he be a chump” never fit better because losing your last 3 on a basho you were dominating is pretty damn chumpish. I hope he gets another chance.

 

And for waka, all I can say is wow…

 

Edited March 27, 2022 by Kuhne

[Reonito 1,335]

2 hours ago, just_some_guy said:

Speaking on Wakatakakage's Ozeki chances (while getting ahead of ourselves and assuming he gets, let's say, 12 wins next basho):

While the first of the three was at M1, there's a precedent -- Terunofuji. Though it's not exactly the same it'd be the same win total. Also, Wakatakakage was 8-7 at M1 the prior basho and only moved from West to East. One could speculate that since he could've ended up Komusubi under different circumstances, hitting a 9-6 at an M1 that could've easily been K is good enough to be in the run.

HOWEVER

There's no "need" for an Ozeki right now. We've got three, who (while hardly paragons of reliability) are not kadoban (yet/anymore) and usually seem capable of at least muddling through with 8 wins. Because of this I don't expect an overly generous promotion, and wouldn't be surprised to see them do like they did with Takakeisho and ask for one more basho as confirmation.

I think an impressive 13-2 will do it; anything less probably not.

[Sakura 1,472]

6 hours ago, maglor said:

Firstly, WTK had to fight Daieisho, Ichinojo, Kiribayama, and Tamawashi, who I think we can all agree are much more difficult opposition than Okinoumi, Sadanoumi, Chiyoshoma, Shimanoumi, Wakamotoharu, and Aoiyama.

Secondly, while Ura and Takanosho may have gone 4-11, they did that while having to face the entire sanyaku and joi. If you put 5-10 Okinoumi, 5-10 Sadanoumi, 5-10 Chiyoshoma, or even 8-7 Shimanoumi(5 of his last 6 matches were against M13 and below) against the same opposition, I would be shocked if any of them got more than 2-3 wins.

I'm not saying that Wakatakakage's wasn't harder. I was saying that they were comparable. One can be harder whilst being comparable enough. My contention is with the idea that Wakatakakage's schedule was considerably more difficult than Takayasu's. Takayasu had a tough Sanyaku slate, so if he had won the Yusho, no one would be able to asterix it and say that he didn't fight anyone important. They both had legitimate yusho winning schedules, but Wakatakakage won because he was better.

It's a lot different from Tokushoryu who only faced Takakeisho on Day 15. 

I'm not so bothered by the exact Maegashira that the rikishi face as long as the Sanyaku schedule is reasonable. Even if the Sanyaku are not in contention they can at lest act as gatekeepers to any Maegashira that have yusho hopes.

[Godango 956]

I love Takayasu, and am heartbroken, but his loss is on him. You get the opposition you get, when you get them. That's the sport, and it's never been any different. 

Hell, let's look at the total wins of everyone they fought:

• Wakatakakage's opponents had a combined 116 wins,  7.73 on average, median of 8.
• Takayasu's opponents had a combined 121 wins,  8.07 on average, median of 8.

The slightest of edges to Takayasu, though really it's negligible.

How about if we look at opposition ranking? Top spot on the banzuke = 1, bottom spot on the banzuke = 42 -- you get the picture.

This gives us:

• Wakatakakage's average opponent ranking was 10.3, median 10, which would be roughly M1w this basho.
• Takayasu's average opponent ranking was 15.6 (M4e/w), median 19 (M6e).

So overall, as commented on, Takayasu faced a slate with slightly better results than those who Wakatakakage face, but those Wakatakakage faced were facing much stiffer competition overall.

Reality is, Takayasu lost to the 12-3 yusho winner, a 9-6 hot & cold ozeki, and an 8-7 hot & cold sekiwake. A very good 12-3.

Wakatakakage lost to a 10-5 M4, an 11-4 shin-ozeki/sanyaku mainstay and the same 9-6 hot & cold ozeki, also a very good 12-3 -- and he beat Takayasu both in regulation and in the playoff.

Doesn't get much more clear-cut than that.

[Reonito 1,335]

17 minutes ago, Godango said:

I love Takayasu, and am heartbroken, but his loss is on him. You get the opposition you get, when you get them. That's the sport, and it's never been any different. 

I'm out of reactions, but I'm frankly baffled by the continuing argument that he was somehow unfairly denied the yusho by not being given an easier schedule.

Edited March 27, 2022 by Reonito

[bettega 427]

Well, a very nice basho indeed. 

 

(and another anoying fumble from Takayasu)

[Rocks 1,807]

26 minutes ago, Godango said:

he beat Takayasu both in regulation and in the playoff.

Doesn't get much more clear-cut than that.

That is very clear cut.  Now, Takayasu's competition averages an KK, Waka's didn't. That pretty significant given 22 of the 42 KKed. Waka's competition is going to rank higher by definition but did they by record? Takanosho and Mesei managed to lose to the same guys Takasyu beat.  Ura at least redeemed himself somewhat at the end but even he lost to Takanosho and was not himself this basho. None of the 3 were any more likely to KK at M7 than they were at their ranks. They all looked terrible, even Ura. probably post covid effects. In any case it's hard to suggest Takansho or Meisei were stiffer competition than Okinoumi and Sadanoumi this basho. 

18 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I'm frankly baffled by the continuing argument that he was somehow unfairly denied the yusho by not being given an easier schedule.

Really? You are baffled by the idea that someone besides a Yokozuna should face 6 sanyaku in his last 6 matches is unfair? With the Yusho on the line?  Ozeki don't even face that. It shouldn't happen. It's unfair. if that "hands" the yusho to someone then so be it. Rank is everything but it's a joke here because Abi and Hoshuryu barely made their KK. I don't see how anyone thinks a guy who beat 2 out of 3 ozeki, on the last 4 days of a basho while leading for a Yusho just because he beat a 9-5 M2 0r M4 on the last day was handed the yusho. 

[Reonito 1,335]

Remember when Ichinojo, in his Makuuchi debut (!) at M10 (!!) had to fight two Ozeki and two Yokozuna in the final five days, only getting an easier opponent on the final day after he lost to Hakuho to drop a win back? This is par for the course; what's unusual is the recent san'yaku weakness that, combined with the schedulers not taking them seriously until it was too late, kept contending lower maegashira from being similarly challenged.

Edited March 27, 2022 by Reonito

[maglor 122]

I am still baffled as to what the problem is to the yusho leader, and the guy who is one win behind, getting sanyaku rikishi on the last day. Why should they get maegashira opponents if they can fight a sekiwake and a komusubi. Why should you get anything less than the hardest available competition. Every single guy on this supposedly crazy hard run for Takayasu Wakatakakage also fought

Edited March 27, 2022 by maglor

[maglor 122]

7 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Remember when Ichinojo, in his Makuuchi debut (!) at M10 (!!) had to fight two Ozeki and two Yokozuna in the final five days, only getting an easier opponent on the final day after he lost to Hakuho to drop a win back? This is par for the course; what's unusual is the recent san'yaku weakness that, combined with the schedulers not taking them seriously until it was too late, kept contending lower maegashira from being similarly challenged.

Or when Konishiki, in his 2nd ever basho at Makuuchi, had to fight 2 Yokozuna, 2 Ozeki, and a Sekiwake in the last 5 days from M6....

Or when Toyonoshima had to fight Hakuho, two Ozeki, Sekiwake Kakuryu, and M1E Kisenosato from M9 in his last 5 days

Or(possibly the best one), when Kaiketsu from M7 had to fight a Yokozuna, three Ozeki, two Sekiwake, and a Komusubi in his last 7 days. Then he lost to a Sekiwake in the playoff.

[Kuhne 57]

Waka fought Taco twice in the same tournament and beat him twice, I do not have the means to procure an excuse as to why taco deserved it more when the actual winner beat him twice.

Edited March 27, 2022 by Kuhne

[Kyokufuji 61]

5 hours ago, robnplunder said:

I don't think any Makuuchi riksihi are shaking in their boots.   I've watched ozumo long enough to know people tend to overestimate up-and-coming prospects, especially, if they have the size.  

Especially with these three. Neither Shishi and Hokuseiho look like they understand what they are supposed to be doing out there. Kinbozan seems ok.

[Reonito 1,335]

7 minutes ago, maglor said:

Or when Konishiki, in his 2nd ever basho at Makuuchi, had to fight 2 Yokozuna, 2 Ozeki, and a Sekiwake in the last 5 days from M6....

Or when Toyonoshima had to fight Hakuho, two Ozeki, Sekiwake Kakuryu, and M1E Kisenosato from M9 in his last 5 days

Or(possibly the best one), when Kaiketsu from M7 had to fight a Yokozuna, three Ozeki, two Sekiwake, and a Komusubi in his last 7 days. Then he lost to a Sekiwake in the playoff.

Tochiozan: 5 san'yaku in the final 5 days. Takatoriki: 5 san'yaku in the final 5 days. No shortage of similar examples.

Edited March 27, 2022 by Reonito

[Kaninoyama 1,694]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

I'm out of reactions, but I'm frankly baffled by the continuing argument that he was somehow unfairly denied the yusho by not being given an easier schedule.

Yeah No way Takayasu feels that way for even a second, so no reason why fans should waste their time thinking that way.

He had his opportunity. He lost. It's entirely on him. And no one understands that better than Takayasu himself.