Benevolance

Haru 2022 Discussion Thread (SPOILERS!)

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:
26 minutes ago, Kaninoyama said:

Kotonowaka wins again, improving to 9-1 and right in the thick of the yusho hunt. 

And close to being tied for the lead! Takayasu hangs on though and pulls out the win against a very stubborn Hoshoryu.

Wakatakakage stays with them, leaving only Mitakeumi's bout to go for determining the hunt group. If WTK keeps this up, we know who the next ōzeki is going to be. He has seriously impressed this bashō.

Edited by Seiyashi

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2 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Wakatakakage stays with them, leaving only Mitakeumi's bout to go for determining the hunt group. If WTK keeps this up, we know who the next ōzeki is going to be. He has seriously impressed this basho.

He probably needs two more 10+ win basho to get to Ozeki regardless of what he does in this basho.

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Just now, robnplunder said:

He probably needs two more 10+ win basho to get to Ozeki regardless of what he does in this basho.

If he finishes with 13+ this time, one more 11-win basho should do it. He got 9-6 from M1 last time out. That's a solid foundation, especially if he manages to nick the yusho here (a big if).

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:
4 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

He probably needs two more 10+ win basho to get to Ozeki regardless of what he does in this basho.

If he finishes with 13+ this time, one more 11-win basho should do it. He got 9-6 from M1 last time out. That's a solid foundation, especially if he manages to nick the yusho here (a big if).

He has a chance to bring Takayasu down to earth - pardon the pun - tomorrow, and in any case, with Mitakeumi's loss, he has pretty good chances for a JY. Considering he doesn't need to go the whole hog for ōzeki, yeah, one more might do it.

The only other danger left is if he does really well in this one, but then doesn't do quite as well in his next bashō (11, maybe). A peak then a decline is never that great for the optics vs a straight rise. But if Shōdai fails to clear kadoban then maybe the powers that be might not mind so much.

Edited by Seiyashi

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Gah! Mitakeumi drops out of the immediate chasing pack, though with Wakatakakage facing each other tomorrow, it may not be that damaging. A WTK win would put him and Takayasu on 10-2, so if Mita beats Abi to go to 9-3, he's right back in it.

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Posted (edited)

Takakeisho wins a bout that lasts longer than five seconds.

Edited by Eikokurai

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Posted (edited)

And I believe that is Takakeishō's first ever win by katasukashi. Probably accidental, though.

Edited by Seiyashi
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7 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

If he finishes with 13+ this time, one more 11-win basho should do it. He got 9-6 from M1 last time out. That's a solid foundation, especially if he manages to nick the yusho here (a big if).

I doubt it.  I think his record wasn't very consistent at Sanyuku level and that may make him wait one more basho.

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Could Shodai finish strong to keep his Ozeki rank?  I didn't think so after day 5 but he suddenly looks like an Ozeki.

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Ok, where has this Shōdai been? He made Endō look like a complete fool, replete with flailing limbs.

I'm now really torn about it - on the one hand, he has a very real prospect of clearing kadoban on his own merits. On the other hand, he might now be thrown into the mix as a spoiler for at least Takayasu and Kotonowaka if not Wakatakakage as well, if the intra-ōzeki matchups don't take place. We might see some dreams getting destroyed.

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1 minute ago, robnplunder said:

I doubt it.  I think his record wasn't very consistent at Sanyuku level and that may make him wait one more basho.

This is his Sekiwake debut. He had one basho at Komusubi previously, which was a losing record, but not enough to identify any trends from. His numbers in the joi have been fine. Not spectacular, but kachikoshi.

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Just now, Eikokurai said:

This is his Sekiwake debut. He had one basho at Komusubi previously, which was a losing record, but not enough to identify any trends from. His numbers in the joi have been fine. Not spectacular, but kachikoshi.

That was my point.  

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1 minute ago, Seiyashi said:

Ok, where has this Shōdai been? He made Endō look like a complete fool, replete with flailing limbs.

I'm now really torn about it - on the one hand, he has a very real prospect of clearing kadoban on his own merits. On the other hand, he might now be thrown into the mix as a spoiler for at least Takayasu and Kotonowaka if not Wakatakakage as well, if the intra-ōzeki matchups don't take place. We might see some dreams getting destroyed.

Hope he wins the next three straight so he's not fighting for his rank at the weekend.

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1 minute ago, robnplunder said:

That was my point.  

Okay. You phrased it like he has a history at Sanyaku level, that's all. 

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:
11 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

I doubt it.  I think his record wasn't very consistent at Sanyuku level and that may make him wait one more basho.

This is his Sekiwake debut. He had one basho at Komusubi previously, which was a losing record, but not enough to identify any trends from. His numbers in the joi have been fine. Not spectacular, but kachikoshi.

He went 5-10 in his komusubi debut, which honestly isn't that terrible considering the typical komusubi schedule as a spanking boy for the senior sanyaku. Within the past 20 years, the only komusubi to record double digit wins in their debut were Miyabiyama (12-3 J), Hakuhō (11-4 J) and Asanoyama (11-4 J). The next best result was a pair of 9-6s by Wakanosato and Kakuryu, then 8-7s by about 10 others including strong wrestlers like Asashōryū, Kisenosato, and Baruto.

5-10 parks Wakatakakage at slightly below average amongst the 60 or so shin-komusubi since 2000; it's probably worth pointing out that Wakatakakage had the misfortune to debut in Hakuhō's last basho where there was one more surefire loss on the cards. I wouldn't bet on it but there probably have been worse records with weaker opponents on paper.

Crucially, in the three bashō since, he's logged consecutive KK in the joi, and is seriously impressing as a shin-sekiwake. To be clear he's definitely not getting promoted this bashō, and he still has to turn in a good performance in Natsu to have any hope of being promoted for Nagoya, but it's definitely not out of the question.

Edited by Seiyashi
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24 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Wakatakakage stays with them, leaving only Mitakeumi's bout to go for determining the hunt group. If WTK keeps this up, we know who the next ōzeki is going to be. He has seriously impressed this bashō.

We know who the next Ozeki won't be. Abi needs to go back to the drawing board and relearn how to move forward.

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Just now, Kaninoyama said:

We know who the next Ozeki won't be. Abi needs to go back to the drawing board and relearn how to move forward.

Agreed. Not sure what happened there, since Abi was one of the more successful komusubi of recent times (4 consecutive bashō as komusubi) and his sumō was supposed to have gotten better. Guess Kintamayama can collect on a few steaks.

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1 minute ago, Seiyashi said:

Agreed. Not sure what happened there, since Abi was one of the more successful komusubi of recent times (4 consecutive bashō as komusubi) and his sumō was supposed to have gotten better. Guess Kintamayama can collect on a few steaks.

I think people overreacted to his recent records from M15 & M6 positions.  He has gotten stronger and more stable on his feet but when he faces stiffer competition, getting 10 wins will be really good.  

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34 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

That's the best I've seen from Takayasu in a long time.   

More blood spilled today than I can remember in a long time.  It has been a bloody day.

Still way too early, but really want to see Takayasu get it done. It would be a shame if his career ended without a single yusho. 

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What a fantastic day of sumo!!!  But wow!  Is no one going to mention the MATTA MADNESS??  I don't recall ever seeing so many in one day.

 

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1 minute ago, Chiyotasuke said:

Last time a maegashira won his first 10 bouts was Homasho in Nagoya 2010. Takayasu is ranked higher than most of them as you can see here

What's more illuminating is which maegashira aren't on that list: there's a very good reason none of the joi maegashira are in there. To be perfectly honest, for Takayasu's skill and rank combination, plus the two months enforced rest, I'd be more surprised if he weren't at least 9-1.

But clocking up the initial wins isn't Takayasu's problem, it's finishing strong that is. This is not the first time that Takayasu has started a basho in the arasoi. You can see from Josh's article that he has plenty of good starts from a wide variety of ranks but has always failed to deliver in the closing half.

20 hours ago, Rocks said:

The other key indicator in Takaysu's favor is the fact he held out and beat Aoiyama. Takaysu's fades start him him losing to someone he has no business losing to at the time, like Wakatakakage last March. Had he lost to Aoiyama I think he would have faded precipitously. If he beats Hoshoryu then it's down to just him and Mitakeumi. I think if Wakatakakage continues to win the pressure will get to Wakaktakakage more than Takayasu. I don't consider Kotonowaka a factor. 

I agree with Rocks that there's something in Takayasu gaining confidence from beating Aoiyama and Hōshōryū, the former being a practical gimme and the other being a bad matchup for him, that makes this bashō potentially different from his past failures. But Hōshōryū was his first real test, and it's his matchups against the rest of the sanyaku that now really matter.

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Today's win is a good sign that Takayasu might finally get his first yusho. He had to dig deep to defend against Hoshoryu's sumo today, in what was an excellent match demonstrating Takayasu's well-known stamina. The way he weathered the pressure in this match, coupled with the varied kimarite (including some strong throws) that he's used so far this basho, makes me think this could finally be the time for Takayasu to lift the trophy. Hopefully it won't be a repeat of his final few bouts of Haru 2021.

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So Kototebakari and Kotokenryu are now being fed lower jonidan with one loss. That pretty much seals a zensho playoff for the jonokuchi yusho, where Tebakari Jr is the clear favourite. Kotokenryu was an indirect benefactor of Hanafusa's upset win over Wakanosho.

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The first two bouts today were conducted in a fairly staid fashion and then things just fell off the truck. Matta after matta, some really cranky sumo from a few characters (Yutakayama not happy with Akua after an egregiously aggressive matta, Shimanoumi not happy with Kagayaki, Chiyoshoma and Myogiryu not happy with each other) and a couple of guys busted open hard way resulting in about a 0.6 Muta for each of them. On top of that some awesome sumo in a number of bouts. And Takakeisho winning a long one with a throw!?!?! A great day to be a spectator.

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