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Asashosakari

Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Haru 2022

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(I know the Hatsu results are still missing...)

The lineup for Haru 2022:

 1. Terunofuji     17  [score?]
 2. Mitakeumi       7  [score?]
 3. Atamifuji       7*
 4. Abi             6  [score?]
 5. Asanowaka       6
 6. Kanno           6*
 7. Tomokaze        6
 8. Taiga           6
 9. Kamito          5
10. Fujitoshi       5*
11. Tatsukaze       5
12. Moji            5*
13. Kototaiki       5**
14. Tatsuguchi      5*
15. Sadanoumi       4
16. Kitanowaka      4

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut, ** marks rikishi with no makekoshi since return to banzuke)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

  • For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.
  • For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

(For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 16 guys up there and the further 4 rikishi (1 'veteran' and 3 newcomerswho are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 20. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 15 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Terunofuji.

Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order).

Final tie-breaker: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi noon JST.

-----

Simplified entry template:

 1. Terunofuji W-L
 2. Mitakeumi W-L
 3. Atamifuji KKMK
 4. Abi W-L
 5. Asanowaka KKMK
 6. Kanno KKMK
 7. Tomokaze KKMK
 8. Taiga KKMK
 9. Kamito KKMK
10. Fujitoshi KKMK
11. Tatsukaze KKMK
12. Moji KKMK
13. Kototaiki KKMK
14. Tatsuguchi KKMK
15. Sadanoumi KKMK
16. Kitanowaka KKMK

TB xx

-----

Good luck!

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 1. Terunofuji 14-1
 2. Mitakeumi 11-4
 3. Atamifuji KK
 4. Abi 9-6
 5. Asanowaka MK
 6. Kanno MK
 7. Tomokaze KK
 8. Taiga KK
 9. Kamito MK
10. Fujitoshi KK
11. Tatsukaze MK
12. Moji KK
13. Kototaiki KK
14. Tatsuguchi MK
15. Sadanoumi MK
16. Kitanowaka KK

TB :12

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 1. Terunofuji     13 
 2. 
Mitakeumi     12
 3. Atamifuji        KK
 4. Abi                  10
 5. Asanowaka   KK
 6. Kanno            KK
 7. Tomokaze     KK
 8. Taiga              KK
 9. Kamito           MK
10. Fujitoshi        KK
11. Tatsukaze     MK
12. Moji               MK
13. Kototaiki       KK
14. Tatsuguchi   KK
15. Sadanoumi   MK
16. Kitanowaka  MK

TB:                       14  

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Terunofuji: 14-1

Mitakeumi: 8-7

Atamifuji: KK

Abi: 9-6

Asanowaka: MK

Kanno: KK

Tomokaze: KK

Taiga: MK

Kamito: MK

Fujitoshi: KK

Tatsukaze: KK

Moji: KK

Kototaiki: MK

Tatsuguchi: KK

Sadanoumi: MK

Kitanowaka: KK

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1. Terunofuji 14-1
 2. Mitakeumi 13-2
 3. Atamifuji KK
 4. Abi 9-6
 5. Asanowaka KK
 6. Kanno MK
 7. Tomokaze KK
 8. Taiga MK
 9. Kamito MK
10. Fujitoshi KK
11. Tatsukaze MK
12. Moji KK
13. Kototaiki KK
14. Tatsuguchi MK
15. Sadanoumi KK
16. Kitanowaka KK

TB :13

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1. Terunofuji             12
 2. Mitakeumi           11
 3. Atamifuji                    KK
 4. Abi                          9
 5. Asanowaka               KK
 6. Kanno                         KK
 7. Tomokaze                  KK
 8. Taiga                                   MK
 9. Kamito                                MK
10. Fujitoshi                    KK
11. Tatsukaze                         MK
12. Moji                                   MK
13. Kototaiki                           MK
14. Tatsuguchi                       MK
15. Sadanoumi                       MK
16. Kitanowaka              KK

TB 10

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 1. Terunofuji 9-6
 2. Mitakeumi 11-4
 3. Atamifuji KK
 4. Abi 13-2
 5. Asanowaka KK
 6. Kanno KK
 7. Tomokaze KK
 8. Taiga MK
 9. Kamito MK
10. Fujitoshi KK
11. Tatsukaze MK
12. Moji KK
13. Kototaiki KK
14. Tatsuguchi KK
15. Sadanoumi MK
16. Kitanowaka KK

TB 13

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1. Terunofuji 10-5
 2. Mitakeumi 10-5
 3. Atamifuji MK
 4. Abi 11-4
 5. Asanowaka KK
 6. Kanno KK
 7. Tomokaze KK
 8. Taiga KK
 9. Kamito MK
10. Fujitoshi KK
11. Tatsukaze MK
12. Moji MK
13. Kototaiki MK
14. Tatsuguchi KK
15. Sadanoumi MK
16. Kitanowaka MK

TB 11

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21 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Simplified entry template:

 1. Terunofuji 12-3
 2. Mitakeumi 9-6
 3. Atamifuji KK
 4. Abi 9-6
 5. Asanowaka KK
 6. Kanno KK
 7. Tomokaze KK
 8. Taiga MK
 9. Kamito KK
10. Fujitoshi KK
11. Tatsukaze MK
12. Moji MK
13. Kototaiki MK
14. Tatsuguchi KK
15. Sadanoumi MK
16. Kitanowaka KK

TB 13

-----

Good luck!

 

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 1. Terunofuji     13-2
 2. Mitakeumi      9-6
 3. Atamifuji      MK
 4. Abi             11-4
 5. Asanowaka      KK
 6. Kanno           KK
 7. Tomokaze      KK
 8. Taiga          MK
 9. Kamito         MK
10. Fujitoshi       KK
11. Tatsukaze      KK
12. Moji            KK
13. Kototaiki       KK
14. Tatsuguchi      KK
15. Sadanoumi       MK
16. Kitanowaka      KK

TB: 13

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1. Terunofuji 12-3
 2. Mitakeumi 11-4
 3. Atamifuji KK
 4. Abi 9-6
 5. Asanowaka KK
 6. Kanno KK
 7. Tomokaze KK
 8. Taiga MK
 9. Kamito MK
10. Fujitoshi KK
11. Tatsukaze MK
12. Moji KK
13. Kototaiki MK
14. Tatsuguchi MK
15. Sadanoumi MK
16. Kitanowaka KK

TB 12

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 1. Terunofuji 13-2
 2. Mitakeumi 10-5
 3. Atamifuji KK
 4. Abi 8-7
 5. Asanowaka KK
 6. Kanno KK
 7. Tomokaze KK
 8. Taiga KK
 9. Kamito MK
10. Fujitoshi KK
11. Tatsukaze MK
12. Moji KK
13. Kototaiki MK
14. Tatsuguchi KK
15. Sadanoumi MK
16. Kitanowaka KK

TB 12

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 1. Terunofuji 13-2
 2. Mitakeumi 10-5
 3. Atamifuji KK
 4. Abi 8-7
 5. Asanowaka KK
 6. Kanno KK
 7. Tomokaze KK
 8. Taiga KK
 9. Kamito KK
10. Fujitoshi KK
11. Tatsukaze KK
12. Moji KK
13. Kototaiki KK
14. Tatsuguchi KK
15. Sadanoumi KK
16. Kitanowaka KK

TB 16

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1. Terunofuji 14-1
 2. Mitakeumi 12-3
 3. Atamifuji KK
 4. Abi 10-5
 5. Asanowaka KK
 6. Kanno MK
 7. Tomokaze KK
 8. Taiga MK
 9. Kamito KK
10. Fujitoshi KKMK
11. Tatsukaze MK
12. Moji KK
13. Kototaiki KK
14. Tatsuguchi MK
15. Sadanoumi KK
16. Kitanowaka KK

TB 11

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 1. Terunofuji 11-4
 2. Mitakeumi 9-6
 3. Atamifuji MK
 4. Abi 9-6
 5. Asanowaka KK
 6. Kanno KK
 7. Tomokaze KK
 8. Taiga MK
 9. Kamito MK
10. Fujitoshi KK
11. Tatsukaze MK
12. Moji KK
13. Kototaiki MK
14. Tatsuguchi MK
15. Sadanoumi MK
16. Kitanowaka MK

TB 9

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I hope all is well @Asashosakari. Provided you're healthy and you have no problems in your life, it would be nice at some point to get the results for Haru and Hatsu 22.

Thanks in advance!

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Posted (edited)

And the Haru results...belated welcome to newcomers Chartorenji and Yarimotsu!
 

Player Teru Mita Atami Abi Asano Kanno Tomo Taiga Kamito Fuji T'kaze Moji Koto T'guchi Sada Kita   TB   Cons
ryafuji + 14-1 + 11-4 + - 9-6 - - + + - + - + + - - + 12 1.79
Profomisakari + 13-2 + 12-3 + + 10-5 + + + + - + - - + + - - 14 1.75
Chartorenji + 14-1 - 8-7 + - 9-6 - + + - - + + + - + - + n/a 1.67
Holleshoryu + 14-1 + 13-2 + - 9-6 + - + - - + - + + - + + 13 1.67
chishafuwaku - 12-3 + 11-4 + - 9-6 + + + - - + - - - - - + 10 1.49
Yarimotsu - 9-6 + 11-4 + + 13-2 + + + - - + - + + + - + 13 1.39
WAKATAKE - 10-5 - 10-5 - + 11-4 + + + + - + - - - + - - 11 1.95
Sakura - 12-3 - 9-6 + - 9-6 + + + - + + - - - + - + 13 1.63
Rocks + 13-2 - 9-6 - + 11-4 + + + - - + + + + + - + 13 1.71
Athenayama - 12-3 + 11-4 + - 9-6 + + + - - + - + - - - + 12 1.34
Hakuryuho + 13-2 - 10-5 + - 8-7 + + + + - + - + - + - + 12 1.34
Jejima + 13-2 - 10-5 + - 8-7 + + + + + + + + + + + + 16 1.87
Tameiki + 14-1 + 12-3 + + 10-5 + - + - +   - + + - + + 11  
Tsuchinoninjin - 11-4 - 9-6 - - 9-6 + + + - - + - + - - - - 9 1.71
  8:6 7:7 11:3 5:9 12:2 11:3 14:0 5:9 3:11 13:0 3:11 10:4 7:7 8:6 3:11 11:3    
Results - + - - - - - - + - + - - - - +    


I don't think we ever had this much disagreement about the likely results of the sanyaku rikishi before...


Unfortunately Tameiki's entry included an invalid pick again, while Chartorenji didn't submit a tie-breaker prediction.

Edited by Asashosakari

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Posted (edited)

Day 6

An early third loss for yokozuna Terunofuji and it had to come by fusenpai, to boot, forcing an early decision on his Haru LKS result.
 

Day 6:
1/16 Decisions, TB 0-19
Pos Player Pts TB
1 chishafuwaku 1 10
1 Tsuchinoninjin 1 9
3 WAKATAKE 1 11
4 Athenayama 1 12
5 Sakura 1 13
5 Yarimotsu 1 13
7 Tameiki 0 11
8 Hakuryuho 0 12
8 ryafuji 0 12
10 Holleshoryu 0 13
10 Rocks 0 13
12 Profomisakari 0 14
13 Jejima 0 16
14 Chartorenji 0  

 

Day 7

And another very early exit with Fujitoshi's debut KK streak crashing out at 0-4. No change to the standings since nobody predicted that MK.

Off-ballot Kiryuko went the other way with a 4-0 start to join the Natsu ballot.


Day 8 - no news


Day 9

A quick run to kachikoshi for both Mitakeumi and Kitanowaka, although only the latter scored a point at this stage.

Nobehara also joined the next ballot with his 5th KK.
 

Day 9:
3/16 Decisions, TB 4-18
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Athenayama 2 12
1 chishafuwaku 2 10
3 Sakura 2 13
3 Yarimotsu 2 13
5 Tameiki 1 11
5 WAKATAKE 1 11
7 Hakuryuho 1 12
7 ryafuji 1 12
9 Holleshoryu 1 13
9 Rocks 1 13
9 Tsuchinoninjin 1 9
12 Jejima 1 16
13 Chartorenji 1  
14 Profomisakari 0 14

 

Edited by Asashosakari

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Day 10

Perhaps the most busy day in LKS history with no less than seven new decisions on the ballot and two more off of it.

Kachikoshi were achieved only by Kamito and Tatsukaze. Rookie trio Moji, Kototaiki and Tatsuguchi saw their debut KK streaks conclude, and veteran sekitori Sadanoumi and freshly renamed Taiga (previously Tanji) also dropped to MK.

The final two off-ballot results also came in already, with Miyagi moving on up to the ballot while Kotohaguro failed to do so.
 

Day 10:
10/16 Decisions, TB 7-12
Pos Player Pts TB
1 chishafuwaku 7 10
2 Sakura 7 13
3 Athenayama 6 12
4 Tsuchinoninjin 5 9
5 Chartorenji 5  
6 Tameiki 4 11
6 WAKATAKE 4 11
8 Rocks 4 13
8 Yarimotsu 4 13
10 Hakuryuho 3 12
10 ryafuji 3 12
12 Holleshoryu 3 13
12 Jejima 3 16
14 Profomisakari 2 14

 

Day 11

With Kanno, another youngster saw his initial KK streak snapped.
 

Day 11:
11/16 Decisions, TB 7-11
Pos Player Pts TB
1 chishafuwaku 7 10
2 Sakura 7 13
3 Athenayama 6 12
4 Tsuchinoninjin 5 9
5 Tameiki 5 11
6 Chartorenji 5  
7 WAKATAKE 4 11
8 Holleshoryu 4 13
8 Rocks 4 13
8 ryafuji 4 12
8 Yarimotsu 4 13
12 Hakuryuho 3 12
12 Jejima 3 16
14 Profomisakari 2 14

 

Day 12

The MK parade continued with Asanowaka picking up his in juryo. In addition the day saw Abi take his 6th loss, dropping him out of contention for his 10-5 target record.
 

Day 12:
13/16 Decisions, TB 7-10
Pos Player Pts TB
1 chishafuwaku 8 10
2 Sakura 8 13
3 Athenayama 7 12
3 Chartorenji 7  
5 Tsuchinoninjin 6 9
6 ryafuji 6 12
7 Holleshoryu 5 13
7 Tameiki 5 11
9 Hakuryuho 4 12
9 Jejima 4 16
9 Rocks 4 13
9 WAKATAKE 4 11
9 Yarimotsu 4 13
14 Profomisakari 2 14


With three decisions to go - 3-3 Tomokaze in makushita, 6-6 Atamifuji in juryo, and 9-3 ozeki Mitakeumi aiming for his 11-4 target - the LKS yusho race was in fact down to just two contenders already.

All participants predicted a kachikoshi for Tomokaze, so his final outcome wasn't going to affect the results in any case. All would-be contenders also had a KK pick for Atamifuji, so this slot proved irrelevant as well. That just left Mitakeumi as a decisive part of the ballot, and the 7-point pursuers Athenayama and Chartorenji had the misfortune that the leading pair had picked differently, meaning that either chishafuwaku or Sakura would definitely stay ahead for an outright victory. Sakura was in line to win the yusho should Mitakeumi finish 10-5 or worse, while chishafuwaku was going to prevail with 11-4 or better.

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Day 13

Makekoshi for Tomokaze to scupper his injury comeback after 6 straight KK for now. He joined Fujitoshi as a pick unanimously predicted wrong by us.

No change to the standings, except that the reduction of the possible TB range to 7-9 meant that chishafuwaku was no longer in the running for the bonus point (like nearly the whole field already).

 

Day 14

And Atamifuji fell to makekoshi in his juryo debut as well, resulting in a clean sweep - 6 ballot rikishi entered the tournament with a KK streak dating back to their entry to the banzuke in jonokuchi, none survived Haru basho.
 

Day 14:
15/16 Decisions, TB 7-8
Pos Player Pts TB
1 chishafuwaku 8 10
1 Sakura 8 13
3 Athenayama 7 12
3 Chartorenji 7  
3 Tsuchinoninjin 7 9
6 ryafuji 6 12
7 Holleshoryu 5 13
7 Rocks 5 13
7 Tameiki 5 11
7 WAKATAKE 5 11
11 Hakuryuho 4 12
11 Jejima 4 16
11 Yarimotsu 4 13
14 Profomisakari 2 14


Meanwhile, Mitakeumi had moved on to a 10-4 record, so it was a straight shoot-out for the LKS yusho depending on his senshuraku match against fellow ozeki Takakeisho.

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Posted (edited)

Day 15

Victory for Mitakeumi, not only clinching the 11-4 target for himself, but also handing the LKS title to chishafuwaku. Congrats! It is his third championship following wins in Kyushu 2016 and Nagoya 2020. Sakura had to settle for the jun-yusho alongside Athenayama, the one pursuer who also voted positively on the ozeki.

In further senshuraku news, Abi managed to earn his kachikoshi at last, so he will at least get to stay part of the game after falling short of his 10-5 target.

The final standings:
 

Day 15:
16/16 Decisions, TB 8
Pos Player Pts TB
1 chishafuwaku 9 10
2 Athenayama 8 12
2 Sakura 8 13
4 Chartorenji 7  
4 ryafuji 7 12
4 Tsuchinoninjin 7 9
7 Holleshoryu 6 13
7 Tameiki 6 11
9 Rocks 5 13
9 WAKATAKE 5 11
9 Yarimotsu 5 13
12 Hakuryuho 4 12
12 Jejima 4 16
14 Profomisakari 3 14


Even the most pessimistic tie-breaker prediction by Tsuchinoninjin proved too high in this MK-heavy tournament. All in all not even 40% of the available points were scored (84 of 224), almost definitely one of the lowest-scoring LKS editions ever.


The new ballot for Natsu 2022:

    Terunofuji     17
 1. Mitakeumi       8
    Atamifuji       7*
 2. Abi             7
    Asanowaka       6
    Kanno           6*
    Tomokaze        6
    Taiga           6
 3. Kamito          6
    Fujitoshi       5*
 4. Tatsukaze       6
    Moji            5*
    Kototaiki       5**
    Tatsuguchi      5*
    Sadanoumi       4
 5. Kitanowaka      5
 6. Kiryuko         5*
 7. Nobehara        5*
 8. Miyagi          5*
---
 9. Wakatakakage    4
10. Wakamotoharu    4
11. Kotoshoho       4
12. Nishikigi       4
13. Shimazuumi      4

Thankfully lots of 4-KK sekitori to help fill out the decimated ballot, including Haru yusho winner Wakatakakage to keep us with three sanyaku-rankers in LKS after the end of Terunofuji's three-year streak.

Edited by Asashosakari
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Scores for banzuke purposes:

chishafuwaku 10 (9+Top)
Athenayama 8
Sakura 8
Chartorenji 7
ryafuji 7
Tsuchinoninjin 7
Holleshoryu 6
Tameiki 6
Rocks 5
WAKATAKE 5
Yarimotsu 5
Hakuryuho 4
Jejima 4
Profomisakari 3

Total: 85 / 14 = 6.07 ---> +2 wins

With two equally viable score adjustments (+2 for 8 KK / 6 MK, or +1 for 6 KK / 8 MK) I normally take my cue from the mean score, which would have narrowly suggested +1 here. However, after working through both alternatives it turned out that the new banzuke would look exactly the same either way, so I went for the prettier +2.


The new banzuke for Natsu 2022:

Asashosakari (Ye kosho)      Y   ---
chishafuwaku (Oe 12-3 Y)     O   Tsuchinoninjin (Ow 9-6)
Athenayama (Sw 10-5 J)       S   Sakura (M1w 10-5 J)
ryafuji (M1e 9-6)            K   Rocks (Se 7-8)
Chartorenji (NR 9-6)         M1  Holleshoryu (M2w 8-7)
Tameiki (M3e 8-7)            M2  Hakuryuho (Ke 6-9)
WAKATAKE (M2e 7-8)           M3  Profomisakari (Kw 5-10)
Yarimotsu (NR 7-8)           M4  Jejima (M4e 6-9)
Ryoshishokunin (M3w 0-0-15)  M5  ---

chishafuwaku goes from kadoban to tsunatori, Tsuchinoninjin had a successful ozeki debut, and recently demoted Athenayama re-asserted himself as an ozeki-caliber player and may well be back up after Natsu basho.

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