Next Ozeki?

[Ripe 60]

15 hours ago, Onibushou said:

For the purposes of this, are we including Asanoyama as a potential next Ozeki or not since it would a be a former making a return?

Are you so sure he'll manage to get back to Ozeki rank?

I can totally see him get Miyabiyama treatment and not get promoted even with 34 wins over 3 basho due to his demotion coming as a result of suspension... I can also see them denying Abi for pretty much the same reason. Of course, both Asanoyama and/or Abi could force their hand and get promoted to Ozeki, but it would probably require something special for that to happen.

[dingo 996]

Count me among those sceptical about Abi. Yes, he does his thing well, but he has just that one thing. Granted Takakeisho didn't let his one dimensionality become an obstacle, but prime Takakeisho is a force of nature which I wouldn't say about Abi. I think he'll be figured out soon by the joi. Still, that doesn't completely preclude him managing to string 33 wins together. 

Beyond Abi I have no idea though. Currently I don't think there is anyone who has the required consistency. Might take a year or more for anyone new to step up. 

[Seiyashi 4,059]

1 hour ago, Ripe said:

16 hours ago, Onibushou said:

For the purposes of this, are we including Asanoyama as a potential next Ozeki or not since it would a be a former making a return?

Are you so sure he'll manage to get back to Ozeki rank?

I can totally see him get Miyabiyama treatment and not get promoted even with 34 wins over 3 basho due to his demotion coming as a result of suspension... I can also see them denying Abi for pretty much the same reason. Of course, both Asanoyama and/or Abi could force their hand and get promoted to Ozeki, but it would probably require something special for that to happen.

If he does force the conversation, his rejection won't be for Miyabiyama reasons. Miyabiyama was promoted early and some amongst the NSK had reservations about his promotion, which were proved right when he was a lackluster ozeki. He was therefore not promoted when he first achieved 34/3, and hindsight showed this to be the right decision when he could never again put together the necessary numbers (i.e. it was another flash in the pan).

Asanoyama is extremely different: his brief tenure at ozeki was incredibly consistent and high performing, with more DD scores than not, and his sole poor performance in the basho he was ultimately suspended in could perhaps be attributed to anxiety (he might have known he'd been outed by then and it was just a matter of when). If he gets back to ozeki, the conversation will be whether he has redeemed himself, not whether he will be a strong ozeki.

[Ripe 60]

1 minute ago, Seiyashi said:

If he does force the conversation, his rejection won't be for Miyabiyama reasons. Miyabiyama was promoted early and some amongst the NSK had reservations about his promotion, which were proved right when he was a lackluster ozeki. He was therefore not promoted when he first achieved 34/3, and hindsight showed this to be the right decision when he could never again put together the necessary numbers (i.e. it was another flash in the pan).

Asanoyama is extremely different: his brief tenure at ozeki was incredibly consistent and high performing, with more DD scores than not, and his sole poor performance in the basho he was ultimately suspended in could perhaps be attributed to anxiety (he might have known he'd been outed by then and it was just a matter of when). If he gets back to ozeki, the conversation will be whether he has redeemed himself, not whether he will be a strong ozeki.

Oh no, his (and Asanoyama's) rejection will be because of their suspension... but the fact that Miyabiyama wasn't repromoted even after scoring 34 wins over 3 basho will be used as part of justification for not promoting them.

But in the end, the fact that they were suspended will be held against them and possibly used to bar them from promotion to Ozeki... hinkaku may be more important for Yokozuna but it also play a part when it comes to Ozeki.

[Asashosakari 18,157]

12 minutes ago, Ripe said:

Oh no, his (and Asanoyama's) rejection will be because of their suspension... but the fact that Miyabiyama wasn't repromoted even after scoring 34 wins over 3 basho will be used as part of justification for not promoting them.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. Used as part of the justification by whom?

Edited January 24, 2022 by Asashosakari

[Seiyashi 4,059]

24 minutes ago, Ripe said:

Oh no, his (and Asanoyama's) rejection will be because of their suspension... but the fact that Miyabiyama wasn't repromoted even after scoring 34 wins over 3 basho will be used as part of justification for not promoting them.

But in the end, the fact that they were suspended will be held against them and possibly used to bar them from promotion to Ozeki... hinkaku may be more important for Yokozuna but it also play a part when it comes to Ozeki.

Miyabiyama was suspended in 2010 way after he made that 34/3 run in 2006, though. So at the time the promotion was denied, his subsequent misbehaviour could not possibly have been a factor (and he had long ceased to be an ozeki by then). His run consisted of 14-1 flanked by 2 10-5s; I suspect that had he been able to sustain it with more double digits instead of 9-6 and 8-7, he might have been repromoted.

The context is important as well. Miyabiyama reached makuuchi and ozeki ridiculously quickly (within 12 basho of his debut) but proceeded to post a 50% KK record as an ozeki. No other ozeki has gone kadoban thrice in their first 8 basho as ozeki (except maybe Shodai - I did the math on this somewhere in the basho thread but forgot where exactly it is). He was a deeply unsatisfactory ozeki and his scores after demotion for the next 5 years were a handful of 10-5s, one 11-4, and moving up and down the joi with mixed KK and MK (so about a 20% DD rate, excluding his second ozeki "run"). The NSK's refusal to repromote him most probably stems from a single 3-basho run not being enough to offset the wealth of existing data on him that said he wouldn't be a good ozeki; it wasn't unreasonable to require him to show more sustained performance, which he didn't (his next DD score was over 2 years later), and so promoted he wasn't.

So technically Asanoyama's case can be distinguished, because Asanoyama during the two years around his promotion was clearly on the up and up. He had one of the best ozeki debuts and even in the next basho (Aki 2020) where he went renpai to start the basho, he still pulled double digits out by the end of the basho. His performance is miles away from Miyabiyama's and a lack of performance when previously at the rank makes no sense as a reason for denying Asanoyama a repromotion. 

That being said, I can see a possibility that there will be some hemming and hawing over Asanoyama's repromotion given that he has disgraced the rank for reasons not related to performance, but it's more likely that it'll come with an unorthodox restraint rather than modifying ozeki promotion criteria - if he gets there. 

Edited January 24, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Sue 470]

I still haven't seen the official announcement of Mitakeumi's promotion, so technically, he's still the "next Ozeki." And there's a strong possibility of the return of Next Ozeki Shodai in Natsu....

[Kashunowaka 298]

12 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Kotonowaka...I can't quite put my finger on what kind of trajectory I expect for him, but it's not Kisenosato. He doesn't have Kise's calm, composed approach to sumo at all, and I don't really see him develop something like that. I'm not even sure that I would support the notion that there's ozeki caliber talent there. I'm kind of getting Kokkai/Tamawashi vibes instead, somebody who will be able to hang with the joi (eventually) but who will have to do it with a bit of a brawler style that will always be at risk of getting outwrestled by more technically adept opponents. And I don't really feel that Kotonowaka will be developing an imposing enough physique that could take that kind of style to ozeki.

I expect Kotonowaka. 

[Asashosakari 18,157]

19 minutes ago, Kashunowaka said:

I expect Kotonowaka. 

I almost made that same joke, but Kotonowaka père was basically the exact opposite in his sumo - calm to the point of seeming lethargic - so that didn't quite fit the argument I was going for. 

[Kashunowaka 298]

3 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

I almost made that same joke, but Kotonowaka père was basically the exact opposite in his sumo - calm to the point of seeming lethargic - so that didn't quite fit the argument I was going for. 

True, but I think that the potential is about the same. Plenty of time to prove me wrong, of course.

[Jakusotsu 5,500]

7 minutes ago, Kashunowaka said:

14 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

I almost made that same joke, but Kotonowaka père was basically the exact opposite in his sumo - calm to the point of seeming lethargic - so that didn't quite fit the argument I was going for. 

True, but I think that the potential is about the same. Plenty of time to prove me wrong, of course.

Still, Junior appears to be a bit more determined than his old man. Kotonowaka Sr. needed 32 basho in Makuuchi for his first double-digits winning record. His son already has three in his tenth basho.

[Yamanashi 3,518]

4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Hoshoryu needs consistency, not weight. I have a niggling suspicion part of his problem in makuuchi is getting used to the potential of his current body, since he was considerably slimmer when he first debuted, and he probably has enough heft and momentum to pull off power oshi moves when the situation calls for it. Someone pointed out somewhere else that he just needs to get into the "win at all costs" mentality than the "win in a fancy way" mentality, since he gets disrupted too often trying to set up flashy looking stuff.

I think you're onto something re: "win fancy".  On the gain-a-little-weight side of the argument is the alarming number of -taoshi losses, suggesting that when his clever plan fails it blows up on him.  Maybe it's both.

[Jakusotsu 5,500]

2 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

On the gain-a-little-weight side of the argument is the alarming number of -taoshi losses, suggesting that when his clever plan fails it blows up on him.

Sounds much like Enho...

[Thorbjarn 214]

5 hours ago, Benihana said:

Why is everybody inisting on Hoshoryu having to gain weight? No, he does NOT have to gain a single gram. If a dude called Byambadorj is able to acquire the rope (during the Hak-reign) with 133kg distributed over 185cm, then why has Hoshoryu (almost same size and weight) to fatten up? Fat is not everything in sumo, elso Orora would be the GOAT, not Hakuho. Damnit.

I don't know about weight per se, but since his beginning in Sumo, Hoshoryu seemed to be lacking power compared to (more) successful Rikishi with comparable built. 

Edited January 24, 2022 by Thorbjarn

[Yamanashi 3,518]

Just now, Jakusotsu said:

Sounds much like Enho...

Yeah, it does, but as the wise man says, "Hoshoryu ain't Enho."  Enho has to try crazy stuff because he can't gain weight like Tobizaru or muscle like Ishiura.  Hoshoryu is a little skinny for his height, but his repertoire is a whole lot more conventional.

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,201]

I had something written up, but last time this topic came up I said Tomokaze, so nevermind...

[Yamanashi 3,518]

1 hour ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

I had something written up, but last time this topic came up I said Tomokaze, so nevermind...

Giving up already?  Don't we know another guy who dropped down to mid-Jonidan and hasn't had an MK since??  Where is he ranked?

[Kaninoyama 1,607]

8 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Hoshoryu needs consistency, not weight. I have a niggling suspicion part of his problem in makuuchi is getting used to the potential of his current body, since he was considerably slimmer when he first debuted, and he probably has enough heft and momentum to pull off power oshi moves when the situation calls for it. Someone pointed out somewhere else that he just needs to get into the "win at all costs" mentality than the "win in a fancy way" mentality, since he gets disrupted too often trying to set up flashy looking stuff.

Consistency and weight go hand in hand in Hoshoryu's case. And it's not even weight he'll have to to to extreme to gain. He's still young and still growing into his sumo body. An extra 10 kilos over the next year or two will be part of his natural progression, and with it the added strength and stability needed to take his already elite belt game to the invincible level of someone like Terunofuji. 

And I suspect with his added weight and strength he'll be able to rely less on his fancy play syndrome as you suggest and be able to to dominate with his added strength and brilliant technique. 

[RabidJohn 1,564]

Ok, I'll take a short ride on the Hoshoryu hype train then.

IMO, his current priorities are: ferocity>strength>weight.

Ferocity? Yes. As others have mentioned he needs to focus more on winning than technique (which he already has in spades).

I'd like to see him develop his upper body so he has the strength to force some of the moves he's not quite able to pull off atm.

So the weight increase should be due to muscle mass rather than fat IMO.

Ending up something like a cross between Chiyonofuji and Harumafuji would be good.

[themistyseas 222]

On 24/01/2022 at 12:01, Jakusotsu said:

Still, Junior appears to be a bit more determined than his old man. Kotonowaka Sr. needed 32 basho in Makuuchi for his first double-digits winning record. His son already has three in his tenth basho.

Agree with this but would caveat that I think many folks would agree his dad also competed (at least for parts of his top division tenure) in a much more competitive landscape... I think if you put Kotonowaka Sr. in the midst of this makuuchi, he'd get there much quicker.

[Kaninoyama 1,607]

People continue to doubt Abi and I don't know why. All he's done throughout his career is perform at every level. 

Here's what he accomplished prior to his suspension:

• Jonidan yusho
• Sandame yusho
• Makushita yusho
• Juryo yusho
• Kinboshi (2)
• Special prize (2)

And here's Abi since his suspension:

• Makushita yusho (2)
• Juryo yusho
• Makuuchi jun-yusho (2 in a row)
• Kinboshi
• Special prize (2)
• Record: 62-12

Of course it remains to be seen if he can make Ozeki because only a few select rikishi do, and next basho in Joi will tell us a lot about where he is, but I remain bullish on his chances to at least put together a strong run at it over the coming year barring injury. 

Edited January 26, 2022 by Kaninoyama

[Sue 470]

It's a shame that they didn't bust him all the way down to Jonokuchi -- now he's missed his chance to collect one of every yusho, unless he hangs around for a long time at the end of his career, or gets badly injured or suspended again.

[Akinomaki 38,555]

12 hours ago, Kaninoyama said:

People continue to doubt Abi and I don't know why. All he's done throughout his career is perform at every level. 

Here's what he accomplished prior to his suspension:

You could add 2nd most wins of the year in 2019, 1 behind the leader Asanoyama with 55, though that year was a record low.

[just_some_guy 236]

On 24/01/2022 at 17:56, Kaninoyama said:

Consistency and weight go hand in hand in Hoshoryu's case. And it's not even weight he'll have to to to extreme to gain. He's still young and still growing into his sumo body. An extra 10 kilos over the next year or two will be part of his natural progression, and with it the added strength and stability needed to take his already elite belt game to the invincible level of someone like Terunofuji. 

And I suspect with his added weight and strength he'll be able to rely less on his fancy play syndrome as you suggest and be able to to dominate with his added strength and brilliant technique. 

My thoughts exactly. Hoshoryu doesn't need to gain weight because every Ozeki needs to weigh X pounds, he needs to gain weight because his style of sumo necessitates it. Nor does he need to add a mountain of blubber. Lean mass would serve him better, or at least half-and-half between fat and muscle.

Comparing him to Harumafuji isn't completely apt IMO.

Edited January 26, 2022 by just_some_guy
typo

[Koorifuu 784]

12 hours ago, Sue said:

It's a shame that they didn't bust him all the way down to Jonokuchi -- now he's missed his chance to collect one of every yusho, unless he hangs around for a long time at the end of his career, or gets badly injured or suspended again.

Sidetracking the thread here a bit, but I had to go check who was responsible for stopping him on his jonokuchi basho, and of course that was jonokuchi legend Ikeru.

In a parallel universe where injuries fall on different people, it's Ikeru who's being discussed in a thread like this.