Gurowake

Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

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Not giving this topic its more proper name because it more accurately represents the content that I will be presenting in it.

Sanyaku:

All positions still technically open as Mitakeumi could feasibly be promoted, but it's looking reasonable to say the Sekiwake slots will have their incumbents while we look for Komusubi among the incumbents and maegashira who do well in the final stretch.

Top contending Maegashira are in order: Tamawashi, Abi, Takarafuji, Ura, Ichinojo

Maegashira in trouble, with numbers of wins to avoid being demotable by-the-numbers:

Oho - 1

Kaisei - 3

Kotoeko - safe, but borderline

Tsurugisho - 3

Aoiyama - 2

Tochinoshin - 2

Wakamotoharu - 1

Ichiyamamoto - 2

Yutakayama - 2

Chiyotairyu - 2

Terutsuyoshi - 1

Akua - 2

Chiyonokuni - 3

Hidenoumi will presumably be demoted unless there is a serious lack of candidates to take his spot.  Takayasu should stay put as he's out due to Covid.  No one in serious trouble here, with the worst three only needing winning records over the last 5 days. 

Juryo candidates, with wins needed for promotion by-the-numbers;

Kagayaki - 2

Nishikigi - 4

Kotoshoho - 1

Daiamami - 4

Kotokuzan - 4

Kaisho - 4

Azumaryu - 5

Asanowaka - 4

Tohakuryu - 4

Not very many serious candidates to go up to go along with few people in danger of demotion, so we'll likely not have all that many exchanges.

Juryo rikishi in trouble, with wins needed:

Hiradoumi - 2

Chiyoarashi - 5

Kotoyusho - 1

Shiden - will be demoted

Chiyonoo - will be demoted

Hakuyozan - 2

Enho - 2

Tokushoryu - 1

Churanoumi - 2

Asanoyama is in a similar boat to Hidenoumi, but is slightly more likely to survive on a first pass, though as I've mentioned earlier they'll likely find someone to replace him if needed.  So there's likely going to be at least 4 spots plus retirements, with outside chances at a couple more.

Makushita candidates:

Atamifuji had his 6th match early and won to bring him level for the tournament.  He will be promoted with a win, while he'll try again from a few ranks lower with a loss.  Ryuden probably has done enough already at 5-0 Ms5e given how many people will likely be demoted, but there's Shimazuumi, Takakento, and Tochimaru at 3-2 who might still finish with as good of a record ranked higher, and Atamifuji is ahead of him with a win, so it's not case closed on Ryuden being promoted yet.  Outside of those 5 who have the best shot there's also Kairyu who might finish with a KK.  I'll not speculate on where in the queue he might finish.

In Day 11 action in makushita we have Takakento vs. Tochimaru, so one will get a KK this round.  Shimazuumi is up in Juryo against Kotoyusho.  Kairyu faces Ms7 Hokaho and Ryuden faces Ms30 Akiseyama in the Makushita semifinal (kinda).

Edited by Gurowake
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Makuuchi Yusho:  People talk about this in many places.  I won't.

Juryo:

J14 Yago leads at 9-1 but given he's at the lowest rank, he's not faced anyone ranked higher than J10 so far.  He faces J7 Daishoho Day 11.

J2 Kotoshoho and J8 Tohakuryu are one behind and have not met.  They face J5 Kaisho and J6 Asanowaka respectively Day 11.

Asanowaka and Kitanowaka are 2 behind, and the latter faces J8 Midorifuji, while having previously already met Tohakuryu.

None of these people are in the same heya.

Makushita:

Only 3 undefeated headed into Round 6 as Sandanme rikishi won enough matches to take their normal 4th one away.  Besides Ryuden vs. Akiseyama, we have  Ms35 Nishikawa vs. Sd6 Roman in the other sorta-semifinal.  I suspect no one will be able to stop Ryuden, but Akiseyama probably has the best chance of those in Makushita.  Maybe someone in Juryo might give him a struggle for his 7th win, which will almost certainly be where they'll find his last opponent if Roman defeats Nishikawa.  I have no clue about their matchup by the way.

None of these rikishi are in the same heya.

Sandanme:

On top of Roman, we have Sd19 Osanai vs. Sd34 Hodaka, Sd50 Kototaiki vs. Sd73 Chiyodaigo, and Sd81 Mukainamano vs. Jd10 Inoue.  I don't know either of the guys in the first match, but the lower ranked two in the other matches are clearly favorites being well underranked. 

None of these guys are in the same heya.

Jonidan:

Besides Inoue, we have Jd27 Asahanshin (Takasago) vs. Jd48 Mienosato, Jd42 Asashinjo (Takasago) vs. Jd69 Kawamaru, and Jd100 Kitanomine vs. Jk16 Nakashima.  I've never heard of any of them (besides Inoue).  Nakashima though has been as high as Makushita and is coming off a long injured break.  The rest have all been to Sandanme but at best in the mid-range, which also means none of them are fresh recruits or probably worth considering as viable candidates, so it'll likely be Inoue with the Yusho here unless he gets knocked out by Chiyodaigo in Round 7.

Jonokuchi:

The other undefeated rikishi in Jonidan is Aoifuji, somewhat weird given that he did not win any Mz matches.  He only got 1 chance then though, and avenged that loss in a real bout.  He faces 4-1 Tanimoto, who had a 6-1 in low jonidan before being injured. 

Edited by Gurowake

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Ryuden should be ahead of Karyu no matter what, and he'll be ahead of Tochimaru if the latter loses. With 4 likely promotion slots, I think the only way he misses out is if he somehow loses both of his remaining bouts, Atamifuji wins, Shimazuumi and Takakeknto get their KK, and Tochimaru wins out. Or if Chiyoarashi wins out, leaving one less slot, but I'm guessing the scheduling will not make all of this possible.

Broadly agree on the rest; I'll chime in as the various exchange pictures get a little clearer in a day or two. I think Kotoshoho's done enough already, unless he completely collapses again and a lot of other results go against him.

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29 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Ryuden probably has done enough already at 5-0 Ms5e given how many people will likely be demoted, but there's Shimazuumi, Takakento, and Tochimaru at 3-2 who might still finish with as good of a record ranked higher, and Atamifuji is ahead of him with a win, so it's not case closed on Ryuden being promoted yet.

Well, as I noted, Takakento faces Tochimaru, so both can't finish 5-2.  Still, it's not in the bag because Chiyoarashi isn't quite dead yet and Takakento is likely ahead of Ryuden with one less win.

Edited by Gurowake
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Thanks for doing this. May I suggest changing the title to Hatsu?

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Just a graphic for J/Ms border to show how obscene the situation is so far (and if really mess up this thread maybe it will push Asashosakari to come back :-D)

image.png

Chiyoarashi could survive with 6-9, but that might be moot. The last time we had a non-Yusho, non-Scandal Ms8/9 promotee to Juryo was Hakuho in 2003.

 

 

Edited by Tsuchinoninjin
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6 minutes ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

Just a graphic for J/Ms border to show how obscene the situation is so far (and if really mess up this thread maybe it will push Asashosakari to come back :-D)

 

Mitoryu's heya is out with COVID induced absences, so he'd likely stay.

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9 minutes ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

The last time we had a non-Yusho, non-Scandal Ms8/9 promotee to Juryo was Hakuho in 2003.

And even that was an exceptional circumstance, since the sekitori ranks expanded by 4 that basho, necessitating more makushita promotions than usual. Makuuchi went from 40 to 42 and juryo from 26 to 28.

Edited by Seiyashi

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Just now, Sakura said:

Mitoryu's heya is out with COVID induced absences, so he'd likely stay.

Indeed, the fusenpai caught me off guard there.

Also Hakuho got promoted because sekitori spots were created. So everything is wrong!

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Asanoyama is going down because the NSK is still making an example of him. The real question is what will they do with J1W Bushozan if he goes 0-15?

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13 hours ago, Sakura said:

Thanks for doing this. May I suggest changing the title to Hatsu?

Thank you.  It bugged me after I went to bed that I wasn't really sure I had the right name for the thread, but I wasn't going to get out of bed to check it.

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Day 11

San'yaku: K1w Daieisho (3-8) has opened up the first slot. K1e Meisei (4-7) is within one loss of opening a second, and faces the Yokozuna tomorrow. With S1e Mitakeumi at 10-1 and S1w Takanosho at 6-5 with some tough bouts to come, the possibility of all four slots coming open is still very much alive. M6w Abi (9-2) is the leading promotion contender, and he faces Takanosho tomorrow.

Juryo: J2e Kotoshoho (9-2) is the first to stake a real promotion claim. J1e Kagayaki (7-4) is one win away from joining him and would of course have top priority with a KK. Absent Hidenoumi's Makuuchi slot is the only one available at the moment, but Tsurugisho, Kaisei and Chiyonokuni all need more wins than losses from here on out to be safe.

Makushita: Everyone who was in action today and needed a win got one, which means we still have 6 rikishi ranked in the top 10 with a shot at promotion. Ms5e Ryuden (6-0) continued his march through the third division by defeating Akiseyama; his opponent in the yusho-deciding bout will be collegian Ms35 Nishikawa. Ms2w Shimazuumi (4-2) has clinched a salaried slot by blowing away J13 Kotoyusho; he can finish no worse than 3rd in the promotion queue. Ms3e Takakento will have his fate decided tomorrow when he visits Juryo to take on Hiradoumi. Ms1w Atamifuji (3-3) will be first or second in line with a win, but eliminated with a loss. Ms4w Tochimaru (4-2) probably needs help from others, although a win would go a long way to help his chances, while Ms4e Kairyu (3-3) must win and hope for losses by others. J13 Chiyoarashi (2-9) lost today, ensuring that a 4th slot is available if needed.

Edited by Reonito

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21 minutes ago, Reonito said:

With S1e Mitakeumi at 10-1 and S1w Takanosho at 6-5 with some tough bouts to come, the possibility of all four slots coming open is still very much alive.

I wonder when was the last basho which saw a complete turnover in lower sanyaku (i.e. none of the 4 incumbents remaining in lower sanyaku). It almost certainly has to be before Mitakeumi's time, since he's been a lower sanyaku fixture for so long.

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14 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I wonder when was the last basho which saw a complete turnover in lower sanyaku (i.e. none of the 4 incumbents remaining in lower sanyaku). It almost certainly has to be before Mitakeumi's time, since he's been a lower sanyaku fixture for so long.

Seems to be http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201603

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But Takanosho only needs one win to stay in sanyaku, so I still think it's unlikely that lower sanyaku is completely vacated.

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I've always liked these threads by Asashosakari, these have always been very insightful. So I'm going to give this a try. But, a fair warning, I only have a vague idea what I'm doing, so read further at your own peril. Though who knows, maybe this post is so bad that the senior members of this forum will wake up from their slumber and teach me how it's really done.

***

One sanyaku slot has been opened up today with Daieisho losing his bout. The slot is anyone's game, really. This in theory favours the upper maegashira, since they are into their week 2 scheduling now, having met the sanyaku opponents. Abi might be in line for it as well.

  10-1 Terunofuji Y      
  1-3-7 Takakeisho O Shodai 4-7  
  10-1 Mitakeumi S Takanosho 6-5  
  4-7 Meisei K Daieisho 3-8 (x)
  5-6 Wakatakakage M1 Kiribayama 5-6  
  5-6 Ura M2 Ichinojo 5-6  
  7-4 Tamawashi M3 Endo 4-7  
      M4 Hokutofuji 5-6  
  7-4 Onosho M5 Chiyoshoma 4-7  
  7-4 Hoshoryu M6 Abi 9-2  
      M7 Takarafuji 8-3  

One definite demotion from the top division so far is Hidenoumi, who is embroiled in a gambling scandal and might be facing bigger problems than just a demotion. Kotoshoho, on the other hand, is poised to return to makuuchi. Kagayaki might accompany him if he wins once more.

(x) 0-0-11 Hidenoumi M8      
(2) 1-10 Chiyonokuni M9      
      M10 Akua 3-8 (1)
      M11      
      M12 Chiyotairyu 4-7 (1)
      M13 Yutakayama 4-7 (2)
      M14 Ichiyamamoto 4-7 (2)
(1) 6-5 Wakamotoharu M15 Tochinoshin 5-6 (2)
(1) 6-5 Aoiyama M16 Tsurugisho 4-7 (3)
      M17 Kaisei 5-6 (3)
(1) 7-4 Oho M18      
             
(1) 7-4 Kagayaki J1      
(4) 5-6 Nishikigi J2 Kotoshoho 9-2 (o)
(3) 6-5 Daiamami J3      
      J4 Kotokuzan 7-4 (3)
(4) 6-5 Kaisho J5 Azumaryu 6-5 (4)
(4) 7-4 Asanowaka J6      
      J7      
(3) 9-2 Tohakuryu J8      

Things are a lot more spicy on the juryo-makushita border. With four definite departures from juryo there are just two definite promotions from makushita with 4 more rikishi in pursiut (and two more ranked further down, as a promotion from Ms9 to juryo with 6 wins is not unprecedented).

(x) 0-0-11 Asanoyama J4      
      ...      
      J9 Churanoumi 3-8 (2)
      J10 Enho 4-7 (2)
(2) 4-7 Hakuyozan J11 Chiyonoo 0-5-6 (x)
(x) 0-0-11 Shiden J12 Kitanowaka 7-4 (o)
(1) 6-5 Kotoyusho J13 Chiyoarashi 2-9 (x)
(2) 6-5 Hiradoumi J14      
             
      Ms1 Atamifuji 3-3 (1)
      Ms2 Shimazuumi 4-2 (o)
(1) 3-3 Takakento Ms3      
(1) 3-3 Kairyu Ms4 Tochimaru 4-2 (1)
(o) 6-0 Ryuden Ms5      
  2-3 Dewanoryu Ms6      
  3-2 Roga Ms7      
  3-2 Kotoozutsu Ms8 Fukai 4-1 (2)
  2-3 Mineyaiba Ms9 Kanno 4-1 (2)

I also assumed that Takayasu and Mitoryu will be keeping their rank because of the covid forced kyujo.

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1 hour ago, Masunofuji said:

 

  3-2 Kotoozutsu Ms8 Fukai 4-1 (2)
  2-3 Mineyaiba Ms9 Kanno 4-1 (2)

Why are Fukai and Kanno at two wins out? They're outside the Ms5 promotion zone, and should have needed a zensho to advance.

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6 minutes ago, Sue said:

Why are Fukai and Kanno at two wins out? They're outside the Ms5 promotion zone, and should have needed a zensho to advance.

There are exceptions, when they really need to fill slots in juryo.

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1 hour ago, Masunofuji said:

I only have a vague idea what I'm doing, so read further at your own peril.

Wakamotoharu is already safe by-the-numbers.

Putting numbers on Makushita rikishi is kinda hard, because there are much loose rules for determining who is promotable.  It's obviously an issue for other promotions as well, but there's no "one win over loss equals one rank" kinda of thing like there is for sekitori, which makes it not necessarily obvious how to compare records and to determine what exactly a minimally demotable rikishi will be replaced for.  The deep 4-1s in Makushita might even get in without 2 wins simply because they're needed and are the best available.

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Here's a list of sanyaku candidates by order they would go in, with the placement being where they're headed to by the numbers if they win no more matches.  One win will put them up 2 projected ranks.

Abi - M3w

Tamawashi - M4e

Wakatakakage, Onosho, - M6e

Kiribayama, Takarafuji - M6w

Ura , Hoshoryu- M7e

Ichinojo - M7w

Hokutofuji - M9w

Endo - M10w

After that it doesn't seem plausible. (Sadanoumi - M12e, Chiyoshoma - M12w, Kotonowaka - M13e still have tiny chances if enough spots open up and they win out)

Since there's no one even within one win of "deserving" a sanyaku spot right now, it's still somewhat plausible to not demote Daieisho if he wins out, though I don't think there's ever been a case of that.  What's more frequent is not demoting a 7-8 on the east side, and generally you would need a score that's good enough for promotion to take the west spot over a 7-8 east side Komusubi, so Meisei could easily hang on with a 7-8 here unless enough people step up and get good records.

Edited by Gurowake

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Juryo yusho race:

A loss by Yago and wins by the two followers put 3 rikishi tied for the Juryo lead at 9-2, while there is no one at a single win behind.  Yago is lobbed a softball with the MK J9 Churanoumi, while they've already decided to schedule the other two leading rikishi, Tohakuyru and Kotoshoho, against each other for Day 12.

Of those two wins behind, Kagayaki is being sent up to Makuuchi, Kotokuzan faces 5-6 J7 Daishoho, Asanowaka faces demotion-bound Chiyoarashi, Nishikifuji faces 6-5 J5 Azumaryu, and Kitanowaka faces 5-6 J2 Nishikigi.

Edited by Gurowake

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Lower division yusho races:

Ryuden gets the expected win and will probably face off against the other 6-0 from Makushita who beat his Sandanme opponent, Ms35 Nishikawa.  With Ryuden having already clinched Juryo promotion, I don't see a good reason to put him up into Juryo and potentially causing a big 6-1 Makushita playoff

In Sandanme, Osanai, Chiyodaigo, and Mukainakano picked up wins, with the last being a bit of a surprise to me.  I don't recall hearing anything about him coming in, but he's put up a good start for a 19 year old, including a win over someone who should be ranked much higher, Inoue. 

The top Jonidan 6-0, Asahanshin, is probably high enough ranked to warrant putting against Mukainakano.  On the other hand, there's only one other undefeated Jonidan rikishi, Kawamura. On the gripping hand, there's just one undefeated Jonokuchi rikishi, Nakashima, after a loss by Aoifuji.  If they pair down the line, they wouldn't have anyone undefeated face someone with a loss, but it opens up the chance that there's a Jonidan playoff at 6-1, which would have a lot of rikishi.  To prevent this they'll probably put the Jonidan guys against each other, with Mukainakano and Nakashima against someone a bit higher ranked with one loss.

I'd also like to point out Mukainakano is really hard to type, with basically no pattern of letters that's typically used in shiknoa.

Edited by Gurowake

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22 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

After that it doesn't seem plausible. (Sadanoumi - M12e, Chiyoshoma - M12w, Kotonowaka - M13e still have tiny chances if enough spots open up and they win out)

I've provisionally kept just Chiyoshoma on my list, as he's sort of in the joi.

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30 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Lower division yusho races:

Ryuden gets the expected win and will probably face off against the other 6-0 from Makushita who beat his Sandanme opponent, Ms35 Nishikawa.  With Ryuden having already clinched Juryo promotion, I don't see a good reason to put him up into Juryo and potentially causing a big 6-1 Makushita playoff

In Sandanme, Osanai, Chiyodaigo, and Mukainakano picked up wins, with the last being a bit of a surprise to me.  I don't recall hearing anything about him coming in, but he's put up a good start for a 19 year old, including a win over someone who should be ranked much higher, Inoue. 

The top Jonidan 6-0, Asahanshin, is probably high enough ranked to warrant putting against Mukainakano.  On the other hand, there's only one other undefeated Jonidan rikishi, Kawamura. On the gripping hand, there's just one undefeated Jonokuchi rikishi, Nakashima, after a loss by Aoifuji.  If they pair down the line, they wouldn't have anyone undefeated face someone with a loss, but it opens up the chance that there's a Jonidan playoff at 6-1, which would have a lot of rikishi.  To prevent this they'll probably put the Jonidan guys against each other, with Mukainakano and Nakashima against someone a bit higher ranked with one loss.

I'd also like to point out Mukainakano is really hard to type, with basically no pattern of letters that's typically used in shiknoa.

Mukainakano was virtually unstoppable in his final year of middle school, winning 2 of the 3 major national titles and coming 3rd in the other tournament (loss via henka). He then went on to Tottori Johoku, where he was a regular on the 5 and 3 man teams even as a freshman. In his 2nd-year he made the finals of a national tournament and was ranked as ozeki on the high school banzuke, the highest spot of anyone in his year and right next to high school and ozumo stablemate Hokuseiho. His 3rd year of high school was pretty much destroyed by COVID cancellations. 

He was also primary school yokozuna I believe....so a long and successful history in amasumo. He is much better than the standard super heavyweight kid who dominated when younger due to size, and his success hasn't sputtered out as he's gotten older. He does strong and composed oshi sumo, and should make sekitori eventually. An obvious lack of speed and undeveloped belt game are his main limitations.

So a very solid prospect. Aside from Inoue, he also bulldozed collegiate opposition like Hitoshi and Miyagi....

Edited by Katooshu
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