Gurowake

Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

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1 hour ago, Reonito said:

Having done a bit of research, I'm pretty sure Kotoyusho is going down and Tochimaru is coming up. 6-9 at J13 isn't borderline, and they only stay up when there's no one eligible to go up in the promotion zone. See this banzuke for a direct case.

Well that's good news for Tochimaru, who's been close-but-not-quite to Juryo on a few times before.  I think I was influenced by recent things like http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=202109#J - but there's a difference between J12 and J13.  The only recent 6-9 J13s to survive had worse replacements available than the recent 6-9 J12s.

 

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2 hours ago, Oortael said:

It would be weird to demote one 6-9 J13 rikishi and not the other. Tho of course, I'm sure we can find one exemple where it happened in history.

But on the other hand :
Kotoyusho was 6-6 vs actual Juryo rikishi and 0-3 vs Makushita.
Chiyoarashi was 3-8 vs actual Juryo rikishi and 3-1 vs Makushita.
Kotokyusho had better results against better competition, while Chiyoarashi would be definitely demotable on his intra-Juryo bouts alone. Not that all of this matters, of course. 

And Tochimaru finished 'only' 4-3 while losing both his exchange bouts. Not really forcing the banzuke-makers hand.

Also, Kotoyusho beat Chiyoarashi H2H, and he's J13e vs C's J13w (does that even mean anything anymore?)  On Chiyoarashi's side, the optics look better because he lost his five-in-a-row in the middle of the basho instead of at the end.

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4 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Also, Kotoyusho beat Chiyoarashi H2H, and he's J13e vs C's J13w (does that even mean anything anymore?)  On Chiyoarashi's side, the optics look better because he lost his five-in-a-row in the middle of the basho instead of at the end.

Oh, there's no question that Chiyoarashi gets demoted ahead of Kotoyusho since they have the same score and Chiyoarashi is 13w. The only question is whether it's neither, just Chiyoarashi, or both. Im pretty sure it'll be both (see a couple of posts above).

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3 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Oh, there's no question that Chiyoarashi gets demoted ahead of Kotoyusho since they have the same score and Chiyoarashi is 13w. The only question is whether it's neither, just Chiyoarashi, or both. Im pretty sure it'll be both (see a couple of posts above).

OK, got it.

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On 22/01/2022 at 15:00, Reonito said:

I'm starting to rough out the next makushita joi.

So far I've got Asanoyama, Chiyoarashi, Tochimaru (or whomever he pushes down), Kairyu if he wins (or whomever he pushes down). So that leaves either 6 or 7 openings. Nishikawa (7-0), Kanno (Ms9, 6-1) and Dewanoryu (Ms6, 4-3) will take three of them. Tsushimanada (Ms11, 5-2) should take another. That leaves 2 or 3 slots for Ms12w Hokuseiho (5-2) and Ms8 Fukai (4-2) and Ms12e Oshoma (4-2), who are matched up tomorrow. If Kairyu loses, all 3 should get in. If Kairyu wins, a Fukai win gives the two slots to him and Hokuseiho. I think an Oshoma win would still leave Fukai ahead of Hokuseiho, who could end up at Ms6e with the "wrong" set of results.

Does this make sense?

Given today's results, and not worrying about the order, I think the top 10 will be:

Asanoyama, Chiyoarashi, Kotoyusho, Nishikawa, Kanno, Dewanoryu, Tsushimanada, Hokuseiho, Fukai and Oshoma. Asanoyama wont fight of course, but it should be a very competitive promotion battle in March.

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A small blessing in disguise of not getting to write for this thread was that I didn't have to comment on Yago's quest for the yusho as it was happening. People with a memory for irrelevant information may recall that I was never enamoured with Yago's sumo prowess, not even when he was briefly doing his thing successfully up in makuuchi, but this basho really took the cake. 11 wins, of which maybe three were the result of actually good sumo. The rest looked as though he was projecting some kind of force field of suck that made his opponents forget how to wrestle. I can't remember the last time that I found myself actively rooting against somebody in a lower division yusho race, but this did it.

As for the Kotoyusho-or-Tochimaru question, I'll throw Nagoya 2016 with Kitataiki vs Daishoho onto the (relatively limited) pile of precedents. While the Nagoya 2018 Kizenryu vs Akua case looks compelling, that's also the only recent case of a demoted J13e where the replacement rikishi was as low as Tochimaru is now, and it may well have been relevant that Kizenryu was a perennial failure at the juryo level, that having been his 9th unsuccessful attempt. That said, while I enjoyed Kotoyusho's work this basho I'm hoping that Tochimaru will finally get his chance to shine after the multiple near misses last year (and more even earlier in his career).

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On 23/01/2022 at 18:19, Gurowake said:

Well that's good news for Tochimaru, who's been close-but-not-quite to Juryo on a few times before. 

Similar-but-opposite, I'm very sad for Kairyu, who's been bouncing around the Ms1 to Ms30 range for a full decade now without ever getting that promotion to Juryo, even if it's just for one basho. Don't know how much time he has left now getting further into his thirties :-(.

Edited by apraxin

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Hope Tochimaru didn't see that....

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Seemed clear to me that Chiyoarashi slammed the door shut on Kairyu and Tochimaru and left it open for himself and Kotoyusho.

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22 hours ago, ryafuji said:

Hope Tochimaru didn't see that....

Not sure what happened but he was in the initial list given.

His scheduled zoom call link was still listed in the media email for interviews on the day as well. 

Very strange.

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1 hour ago, Inside Sport Japan said:

Not sure what happened but he was in the initial list given.

His scheduled zoom call link was still listed in the media email for interviews on the day as well. 

Very strange.

Either it's linked to the Hidenoumi/Shiden affair where Shiden was supposed to be demoted but got a stay of execution at the last minute (which suggests Shiden is getting a "kosho"-style pass) or someone looked at Mitoryu's 0-1-14 and forgot it was COVID kosho.

Edited by Seiyashi
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4 hours ago, Inside Sport Japan said:

Not sure what happened but he was in the initial list given.

His scheduled zoom call link was still listed in the media email for interviews on the day as well. 

Very strange.

This is pretty good evidence actually that Shiden is not getting demoted.  I can't think of any other reason why he would be scheduled for promotion and then not be, while the time-table on the Shiden decision makes it a reasonable hypothesis.

edit: The Mitoryu hypothesis seems very far-fetched.  I don't think they would make such a huge blunder when it comes to sekitori status.  They've done similar mistakes in the past like reading a 7-0 D as a 6-1, but those didn't determine who was a sekitori.

Edited by Gurowake
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6 hours ago, Inside Sport Japan said:

Not sure what happened but he was in the initial list given.

His scheduled zoom call link was still listed in the media email for interviews on the day as well. 

Very strange.

Wow, crazy!

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 Man that sucks for Tochimaru if he was told a promotion was happening

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On 23/01/2022 at 05:57, Gurowake said:

The best option is to make both Onosho and Hoshoryu Komusubi as well as have the demoted Takanosho there, but that requires considering the maegashira joi situation when making the decision for sanyaku, and I don't have any reason to believe that they'd backtrack upon realizing this problem.

Also, as you mentioned lower down in the thread, it is already very difficult to find anyone remotely deserving to occupy the area staring at M7w, and creating an extra komusubi slot would only exacerbate this. 

Edited by Reonito

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I cant see having more imbalance with 3 K

So who will join Takanosho?

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1 hour ago, SDM said:

I cant see having more imbalance with 3 K

So who will join Takanosho?

Hell, who will join Wakatakakage at Sekiwake?  Ura or Ichinojo?  Historically not likely: Terunofuji did it in 2015, but no one else for 37 years before that.  Abi (12-3 @ M6) at least has historical precedent behind him.  I'm assuming they won't leave Takanosho at S1W, which has never happened.

Looking at Ura and Ichinojo for Komosubi, it's razor-thin between them for a spot.  Ichinojo won H2H, but Ura has the half-step head start.  As explained above, putting 3 K's on the banzuke just means filling up M1-M7 with an additional loser.

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I'd go with Abe for the other S

Performance based he is as justified as anyone and, as you say, there is precedent

I agree Takanosho will be expected to drop at least a half.

Ura or Ichinojo for K ? or is that too much?

Also cant see Daieisho falling all the way down to M3 so consequently one person will be underpromoted.

Edited by SDM

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20 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

Looking at Ura and Ichinojo for Komosubi, it's razor-thin between them for a spot.  Ichinojo won H2H, but Ura has the half-step head start.

It's a fundamental rule of banzuke construction that Ichinojo can't be ranked ahead of Ura after putting up the same record at a lower rank.

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2 hours ago, Reonito said:

It's a fundamental rule of banzuke construction that Ichinojo can't be ranked ahead of Ura after putting up the same record at a lower rank.

THUS SPAKE ZARATHUSTRA ... Boom! Boom! Boom! Boom!

Yeah, I agree :-D.

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You need a lot of slipperyness to make up any kind of banzuke

I found theres an even more impossible gap in the mid M

Maybe Ura gets KW

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If they go ahead and put Hidenoumi down to Juryo as a puishment wil that mean:

A) Tsurugisho will be saved and only demoted to M17

B)They promote Kotokuzan as well as the the 3 higher winners to make up a four

 

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I've got Wakatakakage as S1E, and Abi as S1W. Komusubi was a lot harder to figure out. I did Takanosho as K1E and Hoshoryu as K1W. Ura and Onosho get snubbed at least according to my GTB predictions

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Problem with putting Hoshoryu  all the way up to K is the log jam.

Ichinojo, Ura, Tamawashi all had KK and need a small up.

and surely you cant move 7-8 Daieisho too far down?

also 5 1/2 levels for 11-4? Cant recall if that has a lot of precedent

I guess no one wants to post their whole Banzuke bec theres too much guess work  :-O

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