Gurowake

Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

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2 minutes ago, ryafuji said:

Chiyonokuni is safe right? I presume so as no-one is mentioning him! 

Looks rock solid safe to me. Maybe around M15.

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3 minutes ago, ryafuji said:

Chiyonokuni is safe right? I presume so as no-one is mentioning him! 

Chiyonokuni is M9e. Too high to be sent down to Juryo with a 4-11. My take is he will land somewhere around M12e. Possibly even further down (see Tigerboy M15 estimate), but there are several MK lower Maegashira this basho to be "punished". Not to mention he went outright banzai in his last bouts. The committee always appreciates shows of fighting spirit.

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18 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

Since the M18e position is going to be extinct due to the extra ozeki, keeping Oho in makuuchi would mean he'd be promoted with a makekoshi. I've only seen that happen after the 'technical examination' basho. Oho's only minimally realistic chance of survival directly involves Mitakeumi being shown a massive middle finger by those in charge.

Which isn't likely to happen at all since the shimpanbu have all but agreed to promote Mitakeumi, presenting the notification to the board:

https://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/202201230000799.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nikkansports_ogp

And so down Oho goes.

Edited by Seiyashi

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1 minute ago, Seiyashi said:

Which isn't likely to happen at all since the shimpanbu have all but agreed to promote Mitakeumi, presenting the notification to the board:

https://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/202201230000799.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nikkansports_ogp

Good to hear. Anyway, Oho going from 7-3 to 7-8 at M18e (dead last) is a bladant show of poor efforts. All he needed was one more win and he failed to get it five times straight. What incentives do they have to save him? His grandfather's memory?

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2 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

Good to hear. Anyway, Oho going from 7-3 to 7-8 at M18e (dead last) is a bladant show of poor efforts. All he needed was one more win and he failed to get it five times straight. What incentives do they have to save him? His grandfather's memory?

I wouldn't be so quick to damn him, since makuuchi is quite a bit different from juryo. But FWIW, to my eye his sumo is the worst looking of most of the hot young debutants (e.g. Hoshoryu, the two Kotos) so far, so I didn't quite understand why he was being spoken of as future sanyaku so quickly. He has an even bigger hill to scale than they do. Unfortunately another basho in juryo won't be the place to hone his skills against top flight competition.

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41 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

Chiyonokuni is M9e. Too high to be sent down to Juryo with a 4-11. My take is he will land somewhere around M12e. Possibly even further down (see Tigerboy M15 estimate), but there are several MK lower Maegashira this basho to be "punished". Not to mention he went outright banzai in his last bouts. The committee always appreciates shows of fighting spirit.

I started watching sumo in the era when the maegashira ranks never went lower than 14 - then a 4-11 at M9 and you'd be gone. I don't think I've mentally adjusted. 

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Sanyaku:

We should have two new Sekiwake with Abi and Wakatakakage. The open Komusubi slot is between Hoshoryu and Onosho, with the former being a rank ahead by the numbers, but the latter faced all the sanyaku and has previous sanyaku experience.  Also not in favor of Hoshoryu is his relative youth and newness to the division.  They've made multiple Komusubi decisions in recent where they've gone one rank against the numbers, and this could easily be one of them.  I don't want to say for sure it'll go to Onosho, but that's who I would lean to.

But now we have a real problem.  If we give Hoshoryu the top maegashira spot as might be expected from just barely missing out as a Komusubi, then promoting each of the 8-7 joi maegashira Ura, Ichinojo, and Tamawashi by the minimum half-rank, we have Daieisho sliding all the way to M3e with a 7-8 from Komusubi.  This seems like a particularly bad outcome because he should be ranked ahead of at least Tamawashi, and probably Ichinojo too.  One possible solution to this problem is adding Hoshoryu as another Komusubi.  Another would be to not promote some or all of the 8-7 joi maegashira.  The latter is particularly foul-tasting though because it would actually be a demotion in terms of space from the top of the banzuke due to the extra sanyaku.  Yet another solution would be to give the Komusubi spot to Hoshoryu and put Onosho as M3e.  You might even do the opposite, justifying it as Hoshoryu not having as difficult a schedule as everyone ranked above him other than Abi, but given how far he'd be located from Abi despite finishing within a win this also leaves a sour taste.  I don't have a good answer.  The best option is to make both Onosho and Hoshoryu Komusubi as well as have the demoted Takanosho there, but that requires considering the maegashira joi situation when making the decision for sanyaku, and I don't have any reason to believe that they'd backtrack upon realizing this problem.  If anyone can point to a situation where they've cleary made a decision in that way, it would be nice to know about.

Edited by Gurowake
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Makuuchi <-> Juryo

Well, we're pretty much stuck with demoting Oho unless they can justify giving him the nominal promotion due to the extra sanyaku, and both Tsurugisho and Ichiyamamoto have worse rank/record combinations, so that suggests that in fairness they should be demoted too, much like the situation when they last promoted two extra Komusubi because one was forced and the other had a better rank/record combination.  This would mean that most likely Azumaryu would sneak into the last spot of Makuuchi, being the only remaining Juryo within a win of promotion after Kagayaki, Kotokuzan, Nishikigi, and Kotoshoho.  In total, those 5 up for the first three mentioned plus Kaisei and Hidenoumi.  Now that I mention the last guy, it's within reason that he stays instead of promoting Azumaryu, but given the punishment nature of his kyujo, that seems unlikely.

If they don't decide that Tsurugisho and Ichiyamamoto have to both go, they'd have to somehow decide between them or not promote Kotokuzan.  I don't have a good answer there.

Edited by Gurowake

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6 minutes ago, ryafuji said:

I started watching sumo in the era when the maegashira ranks never went lower than 14 - then a 4-11 at M9 and you'd be gone. I don't think I've mentally adjusted. 

I can relate. This was the second most maegashira-friendly basho with a M18e position (only a basho without a Yonozuna in the Banzuke would go further and provide a M18w position). Welp, I looked up and turned out the last basho with a 18w position was Aki 1959 (!). Furthermore, the M18 position didn't exist at all between Kyushu 1959 and Hatsu 2020, just to pop up with a M18e spot in Haru 2020 (Kotonowaka).

Strange enough, having a M18 was quite common from 1911 to 1959. I couldn't find a clear explanation for this, but reading up my main source for sumo history (Cuyler 1979) it came out the Maakuchi included only 36 rikishi at the time (1979). I guess this might have been a consequence of ex-Futabayama's reforms (1957 onwards). The number was agumented to 42 in 2004 but clealy some time was needed to wear down the ranks.

5 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Sanyaku:

We should have two new Sekiwake with Abi and Wakatakakage. The open Komusubi slot is between Hoshoryu and Onosho, with the former being a rank ahead by the numbers, but the latter faced all the sanyaku and has previous sanyaku experience.  Also not in favor of Hoshoryu is his relatively youth and newness to the division.  They've made multiple Komusubi decisions in recent where they've gone one rank against the numbers, and this could easily be one of them.  I don't want to say for sure it'll go to Onosho, but that's who I would lean to.

But now we have a real problem.  If we give Hoshoryu the top maegashira spot as might be expected from just barely missing out as a Komusubi, then promoting each of the 8-7 joi maegashira Ura, Ichinojo, and Tamawashi by the minimum half-rank, we have Daieisho sliding all the way to M3e with a 7-8 from Komusubi.  This seems like a particularly bad outcome because he should be ranked ahead of at least Tamawashi, and probably Ichinojo too.  One possible solution to this problem is adding Hoshoryu as another Komusubi.  Another would be to not promote some or all of the 8-7 joi maegashira.  The latter is particularly foul-tasting though because it would actually be a demotion in terms of space from the top of the banzuke due to the extra sanyaku.  Yet another solution would be to give the Komusubi spot to Hoshoryu and put Onosho as M3e.  You might even do the opposite, justifying it as Hoshoryu not having as difficult a schedule as everyone ranked above him other than Abi, but given how far he'd be located from Abi despite finishing within a win this also leaves a sour taste.  I don't have a good answer.  The best option is to make both Onosho and Hoshoryu Komusubi as well as have the demoted Takanosho there as well, but that requires considering the maegashira joi situation when making the decision for sanyaku, and I don't have any reason to believe that they'd backtrack upon realizing this problem.  If anyone can point to a situation where they've cleary made a decision in that way, it would be nice to know about.

Was it me, I'd add an extra Komusubi slot if they really care for Daieisho's right to not fall this much down the ladder. It's not usual for a M6e to get one (as extra) with a 11-4, but for instance it happened with Tochiazuma in Natsu 1997 (M6e, 11-4 > K2w).

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Juryo <-> Makushita

As I mentioned yesterday, I don't think anything that happened on Day 15 mattered much, but we did get Kairyu losing which makes it even more likely that Kotoyusho stays, as his replacement, Tochimaru, is now another half-rank from the top of Makushita.  We definitely have Asanoyama, Shiden, Chiyoarashi, and Chiyonoo down for Atamifuji, Shimazuumi, Ryuden, and Takakento, though one might find reason to argue Chiyoarashi should stay over Takakento.  If you don't argue that, then you could argue for Tochimaru replacing Kotoyusho, which is certainly possible, but I would lean against.

Edited by Gurowake

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I'll also point out there is a massive gaping hole in the banzuke starting after Takayasu that continues for some time so there are going to be a lot of overpromotions and underdemotions in the middle of the maegashira pack.  I don't want to give much in a the way of hints as to exactly how I think things will work out, but it's going to be crazy.

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24 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

Was it me, I'd add an extra Komusubi slot if they really care for Daieisho's right to not fall this much down the ladder. It's not usual for a M6e to get one (as extra) with a 11-4, but for instance it happened with Tochiazuma in Natsu 1997 (M6e, 11-4 > K2w).

This seems to me to be the clearly best solution in terms of fairness so long as they have a problem not promoting 8-7s.  However, 1997 was a long time ago and things were generally different then.  There's definitely been a trend towards not creating extra Komusubi since then.  The only times they have anytime recently was when Hokutofuji had a 9-6 at M1e but there were no demotions, and when Daieisho won the yusho from M1w with no demotions.  There's just little compelling reason to make an extra slot just based on the record, as they've denied extra slots recently to records like 10-5 M2w twice despite giving an extra slot to Asanoyama with that record when Hokutofuji was forced to be given an extra one presumably because Asanoyama deserved the spot more (I always found it odd that he got promoted as well, but was ranked behind Hokutofuji).  They basically have to be giving an extra slot specifically because of the crunch in the joi maegashira, and I simply don't know of any precedent of them doing that.

Edited by Gurowake

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2 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

and when Daieisho won the yusho from M1w with no demotions

Worth pointing out that in that particular instance, based on historical precedent alone, everyone was expecting him to be a 3rd sekiwake rather than a 3rd komusubi. I guess it's safe to say that the current iteration of the banzuke committee is much more stingy with extra sanyaku slots if they have to create them, so I'd expect some hard luck amongst the joi maegashira if that happens.

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11 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

This seems to me to be the clearly best solution in terms of fairness so long as they have a problem not promoting 8-7s.

I'll point out that they actually don't have any problems not promoting 8-7s if the situation is right  - see Yutakayama after Kyushu 2019.  http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201911&amp;heya=-1&amp;shusshin=-1&amp;snr=on  They could have easily given Takanosho an even stingier promotion to give Yutakayama the half-rank promotion usually given at minimum, but they didn't.  Now in that situation the sanyaku was getting much smaller (one less Ozeki, 2 less Komusubi), whereas in this situation the sanyaku is actually expanding, but they at least set the precedent then that it's possible.

Edited by Gurowake

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6 hours ago, ryafuji said:

Chiyonokuni is safe right? I presume so as no-one is mentioning him! 

yes, very

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5 hours ago, Gurowake said:

If you don't argue that, then you could argue for Tochimaru replacing Kotoyusho, which is certainly possible, but I would lean against.

I'd say there's a fairness argument that both J13's with a 6-9 should go down, which would have Tochimaru replacing Kotoyusho. The equivalent argument is that neither should go down, but keeping Chiyoarashi over Takakento seems more against precedent.

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6 minutes ago, Reonito said:
5 hours ago, Gurowake said:

If you don't argue that, then you could argue for Tochimaru replacing Kotoyusho, which is certainly possible, but I would lean against.

I'd say there's a fairness argument that both J13's with a 6-9 should go down, which would have Tochimaru replacing Kotoyusho. The equivalent argument is that neither should go down, but keeping Chiyoarashi over Takakento seems more against precedent.

Technically, with a somewhat borderline result, couldn't you argue that the J13w would go down while a J13e might just hang on at J14w? It's not like both went 5-10.

Edited by Seiyashi

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29 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Technically, with a somewhat borderline result, couldn't you argue that the J13w would go down while a J13e might just hang on at J14w? It's not like both went 5-10.

Yeah, that's what Gurowake is arguing

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So to add some numbers here, a 4-3 Ms3e has been promoted >50% of the time in recent years; a 4-3 Ms4w <50%. A 6-9 J13e surviving is unusual but not unprecedented, while a 6-9 J13w hasn't survived since 2000. Personally, I'd go with Tochimaru over Kotoyusho, but it's a close call. We'll find out soon, unlike the rest of the banzuke.

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1 hour ago, Reonito said:

I'd say there's a fairness argument that both J13's with a 6-9 should go down, which would have Tochimaru replacing Kotoyusho. The equivalent argument is that neither should go down, but keeping Chiyoarashi over Takakento seems more against precedent.

It would be weird to demote one 6-9 J13 rikishi and not the other. Tho of course, I'm sure we can find one exemple where it happened in history.

But on the other hand :
Kotoyusho was 6-6 vs actual Juryo rikishi and 0-3 vs Makushita.
Chiyoarashi was 3-8 vs actual Juryo rikishi and 3-1 vs Makushita.
Kotokyusho had better results against better competition, while Chiyoarashi would be definitely demotable on his intra-Juryo bouts alone. Not that all of this matters, of course. 

And Tochimaru finished 'only' 4-3 while losing both his exchange bouts. Not really forcing the banzuke-makers hand.

Edited by Oortael

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Having done a bit of research, I'm pretty sure Kotoyusho is going down and Tochimaru is coming up. 6-9 at J13 isn't borderline, and they only stay up when there's no one eligible to go up in the promotion zone. See this banzuke for a direct case.

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What rank might Kitanowaka be looking at with 8-7 at J12?

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22 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

What rank might Kitanowaka be looking at with 8-7 at J12?

J9-ish?

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9 minutes ago, Reonito said:
31 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

What rank might Kitanowaka be looking at with 8-7 at J12?

J9-ish?

I've got him at J9e in my draft.

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8 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I'll also point out there is a massive gaping hole in the banzuke starting after Takayasu that continues for some time so there are going to be a lot of overpromotions and underdemotions in the middle of the maegashira pack.  I don't want to give much in a the way of hints as to exactly how I think things will work out, but it's going to be crazy.

Yeah I just made my first draft and oh boy (Shakinghead...)

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