Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

[Yamanashi 3,794]

9 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Was Takarafuji out of the race before the bouts?  If Terunofuji lost, then the winner of Mitakeumi-Abi vs. Terunofuji would not guarantee someone at 12 wins.  They're quite clearly paranoid about maegashira outside the joi winning without being tested against the sanyaku, especially after the losses of both leaders Day 12.  Enough that the scheduled matches between sanyaku simply don't matter - only the Yusho race does.  They've definitely totally shifted to Bench Sumo thinking.  Now with Terunofuji winning, we're guaranteed 12 wins for either him or Mitakeumi (after he beat Abi) unless they decide for some reason to not do Terunofuji-Mitakeumi Day 15, which puts all the 9 win people out of the race, but that wasn't the case when the matchups were decided.

I think I want to give this a "Like", but first I have to go through the myriad of possibilities.  Ah, what the heck ...

[Sakura 1,484]

16 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I don't think their records can be strong enough to push down any of the borderline incumbents, and Kotokuzan is guaranteed a better promotion case, so this could only come into play if all of the guys with the (2) next to them lose both of their remaining bouts. 

I agree. If it weren't for the (2) guys, I'd say it was impossible. As you say, I don't think they'd be better candidates for Makuuchi over any of the rikishi with a (1 - except maybe Oho). It'd take Ichiyamamoto, Tsurugisho, Oho, Nishikigi and Daiamami to lose their next two bouts for both to have a shot (and not guaranteed even then). As Nishikigi and Ichiyamamoto face each other, I'd say that only one really has a shot, albeit very unlikely. My point is that it's not impossible yet.

[Yamanashi 3,794]

9 hours ago, Sakura said:

Since Takarafuji was out of the race, essentially, before the bouts started, why not Mitakeumi - Kotonowaka? (They could still do Takanosho - Takarafuji). My guess is that Takarafuji is in the same heya as Terunofuji and thus has motivation to perform against Mitakeumi. Even so, I'm not sure there was a need not to do Mitakeumi - Takanosho.

Á la Terutsyoshi on Asanoyama.  Besides, now I have a chance to see of my Ridiculous Prediction comes through.  Look for Filipino food hidden in Takarafuji's mawashi.

[Reonito 1,387]

3 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Á la Terutsyoshi on Asanoyama.  Besides, now I have a chance to see of my Ridiculous Prediction comes through.  Look for Filipino food hidden in Takarafuji's mawashi.

Bonus points if Takarafuji goes for an ashitori 

[Gurowake 4,031]

Sanyaku:

The number of slots is still in the air with Takanosho still failing to secure a 7th win (4 straight losses) and MItaekumi looking reasonable but not certain for Ozeki promotion.  Wakatakakage as a KK top-ranked maegashira has one slot guaranteed.  The race for the remaining 1-3 slots is between:

Abi - M(1)w

Onosho - M0e

Hoshoryu - M1e

Tamawashi - M2e

Ura - M3e

None of these 5 fight each other, though there is Onosho vs. Wakatakakage which has Sekiwake implications for each.

One thing to consider is how ties and other close calls might be settled.  Abi has a weaker schedule than Onosho, and so might end up behind Onosho even if they both have the same result.  The same is true with Tamwashi if he wins and Abi loses.  Tamawashi and Onosho being tied I have no idea about; there's nothing to suggest one way or the other.  If Ura ties with Hoshoryu, Ura will probably get the nod for the harder schedule, but he's probably too far behind Abi to have that schedule be enough to get past him.

[Gurowake 4,031]

Makuuchi <-> Juryo

We have two sure promotions in Kotoshoho and Kagayaki, and two sure demotions in Hidenoumi and Kaisei.  Those not surely demoted, with the highest rank they could be headed to by the numbers:

Oho - M17e

Tsurugisho - M17w

Ichiyamamoto - M19w

Promotion contenders, with lowest rank they could be headed to by the numbers

Nishikigi - J1e

Kotokuzan - J1w

Tohakuryu - J3e

Kaisho, Daiamami - J4e

There is one match between these: Tohakuryu-Tsurugisho.  It's possible this isn't an exchange match as Nishikigi, Kotokuzan, and Oho could all win, and the two extra slots go to the first two of those while Oho survives.  Tohakuryu still might not get that spot since he's so low ranked, but I would think being given an exchange match in the lower half of the division bodes well for his chances.  Kaisho and Daiamami are almost certainly out of contention since a third spot only opens up if Tohakuryu wins and they are always behind the first two candidates.

Ichiyamamoto needs a win to survive, since even if Oho and Tsurugisho lose, Nishikigi, Kotokuzan (even if they lose) and Tohakuryu (who would beat Tsurugisho) would all have strong enough records to replace him.  He still probably doesn't survive with a win, as either Nishikigi or Kotokuzan winning should be enough to take his spot, though an Oho loss and only one of Kishikigi and Kotokuzan winning would complicate things, since Oho may need to be demoted regardless of numbers since his rank is likely to disappear.  This could mean anyone with worse numbers might also be demoted, or it could mean that Ichiyamamoto gets good banzuke luck.

 

[Gurowake 4,031]

Juyro <-> Makushita

Going down we have Asanoyama, Shiden, Chiyonoo, and Chiyoarashi.  Coming up we have Atamifuji, Shimazuumi, Takakento, and Ryuden.  On the bubble going down:

Hiradoumi - J13e

Kotoyusho, Hakuyozan - J14e

Possibly going up:

Kairyu - 3-3 Ms4e, faces Chiyoarashi

Tochimaru - 4-3 Ms4w

In general however, I would say that a 4-3 Ms4 (or the 6-1 Ms9 I didn't list) doesn't have much chance at dislodging someone with a minimally demotable record.  Kairyu might get the nod with a win and a loss by one of the two worse-off bubble Juryo, but I wouldn't count on it, and he certainly wouldn't replace Hiradoumi if the latter was the only loser.  Tochimaru lost his match up in Juryo that would have made him a reasonable candidate to push down someone minimally demotable, so I don't think he has a chance. Thus I'm of the opinion we probably only have 4 exchanges and Day 15 doesn't matter.

 

[Gurowake 4,031]

Juryo Yusho:

Kotoshoho and Yago have the lead.  Kotoshoho's opponent is Nishikifuji, who doesn't have much to fight for except a slightly higher ranking (and mochikyukin points), while Yago faces Nishikigi, who is in contention for promotion to Makuuchi.

If both of those lose, then one-behind Tohakuryu, who as mentioned faces Tsurugisho up in Makuuchi, has a chance to turn the playoff into a tomoe-sen.

[Reonito 1,387]

7 hours ago, Gurowake said:

If Ura ties with Hoshoryu, Ura will probably get the nod for the harder schedule

I feel like Ichinojo still has an outside chance to sneak in if there are 4 slots and everyone ahead of him loses, as they might not take into account east vs. west when comparing him to Hoshoryu

[Reonito 1,387]

7 hours ago, Gurowake said:

There is one match between these: Tohakuryu-Tsurugisho.

Kotokuzan-Tsurugisho

[Gurowake 4,031]

39 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Kotokuzan-Tsurugisho

Huh.  I must have really spaced out.  I have no clue where I got Tohakuryu-Tsurugisho.  That makes a good deal of what I said worthless.

[Gurowake 4,031]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

I feel like Ichinojo still has an outside chance to sneak in if there are 4 slots and everyone ahead of him loses, as they might not take into account east vs. west when comparing him to Hoshoryu

That's true.  I think i excluded Ichinojo on the basis of always being behind enough people, but you're right that he's probably ahead of Hoshoryu in reality if behind in the numbers in the best possible scenario.

[Reonito 1,387]

I'm starting to rough out the next makushita joi.

So far I've got Asanoyama, Chiyoarashi, Tochimaru (or whomever he pushes down), Kairyu if he wins (or whomever he pushes down). So that leaves either 6 or 7 openings. Nishikawa (7-0), Kanno (Ms9, 6-1) and Dewanoryu (Ms6, 4-3) will take three of them. Tsushimanada (Ms11, 5-2) should take another. That leaves 2 or 3 slots for Ms12w Hokuseiho (5-2) and Ms8 Fukai (4-2) and Ms12e Oshoma (4-2), who are matched up tomorrow. If Kairyu loses, all 3 should get in. If Kairyu wins, a Fukai win gives the two slots to him and Hokuseiho. I think an Oshoma win would still leave Fukai ahead of Hokuseiho, who could end up at Ms6e with the "wrong" set of results.

Does this make sense?

[Sven H. 4]

This thread is tremendous as always. Any thoughts as to the priority for the open Sekiwake slot(s)?

[Reonito 1,387]

22 minutes ago, Sven H. said:

This thread is tremendous as always. Any thoughts as to the priority for the open Sekiwake slot(s)?

1. Abi with a win. 2. winner of Onosho vs. Wakatakakage. 3. Hoshoryu with a win.

[Hankegami 454]

Well, ladies and gentlemen, here we go. Mitakeumi won his third yusho and 99,99% also his Ozeki promotion. As a result, the NSK will have to fill two Sekiwake and one Komusubi slots (the other K slot arguably going to demoted Sk Takanosho).

7 hours ago, Reonito said:

1. Abi with a win. 2. winner of Onosho vs. Wakatakakage. 3. Hoshoryu with a win.

I believe this is still the case. However, as Onosho lost to Wakatakakage, I would put him out of the discussion. The front-runners for Sekiwake are therefore Wakatakakage (M1e, 9-6), Hoshoryu (M6e, 11-4) and Abi (M6w, 12-3 J).

Looking for Maegashira-to-Sekiwake precedents, I researched all previous appoinments up to Nagoya 2004. No Maegashira became Sekiwake below M7e (Toyonoshima, 12-3 J in Hatsu 2016), with the sole exception of M10e Ichinojo (13-2 J, Aki 2014). Moreover, no one was promoted with a 8-7 aside from Terunofuji (M2e in Hatsu 2015). This latter case was however marred by MK epidemic troghout the upper ranks, so Terunofuji and M6e Okinoumi (9-6) were the highest KK Maegashira in the banzuke.

Let's see relatable precedents for all candidates:

• Wakatakakage (M1e, 9-6): Sekiwake appointments at M1-6 positions with a 9-6 score happened six times since Nagoya 2004. It's unusual but not unheard of, especially given that Wakatakakage was the highest ranked Maegashira this basho.
• Hoshoryu (M6e, 11-4): his score is much standard for an upper Maegashira promotion to Sekiwake. However, An M6-7 promotion happened again no more than six times since Nagoya 2004, and four of them had a better score than Hoshoryu's. His closest comparison was Myogiryu, M6w at Nagoya 2014 with a 11-4 score. Again a basho full of MK, but interestingly he was chosen over 9-6 M4w Takekaze and 9-6 M6e Terunofuji. Neither of them was as high as Wakatakakage, however.
• Abi (M6w, 12-3 J): standard pair rank-score for a Sekiwake promotion. His recent past could work against him, however. I hope the NSK is not going to be so petty though.

All considered, Hoshoryu makes a less compelling case than his direct contestants. Moreover, both Wakatakakage and Abi were Komusubi before, while Hoshoryu never went above M1. The Sekiwake slots in my opinion will go to Wakatakakage and Abi, with Hoshoryu making it to Komusubi. This would be the highest career rank for all three of them.

 

[serge_gva 52]

Makuuchi jōi-jin will be very crowded next basho!
Unlike Abi and Hoshoryu, Wakatakakage has faced the whole top of the division, which, it seems to me, the Banzuke committee values... So, I would try:

S1e Wakatakakae, S1w Abi
K1e Hōshōryū, K1w Takanoshō

Then it get's complicated again... If I give all 8-7 rikishi a minimal +0,5 rank, we have:

M1e Onoshō, M1w Ura
M2e Ichinojō, M2w Tamawahsi
M3e Daieishō, M3w Meisei <<<<=== And here we have a problem, because a 7-8 Komusubi has never been sent further than the 2nd row :/ So we have to underpromote Onoshō A LOT, or deny a 8-7 a gain in position. What do you think?

(bold: highest rank ever - there are a lot!)

Note: going directly to Sekiwake would be a nice revenge for Abi, because he was denied three times in a row a Sekiwake spot despite a KK from K1e back in 2019!

 

Edited January 23, 2022 by serge_gva

[Hankegami 454]

6 minutes ago, serge_gva said:

M3e Daieishō, M3w Meisei <<<<=== And here we have a problem, because a 7-8 Komusubi has never been sent further than the 2nd row :/ So we have to underpromote Onoshō A LOT, or deny a 7-8 a gain in position. What do you think?

For me, M3e is just fine. I noticed above that several upper Maegashira were promoted to Sekiwake just because they were the highest to get a KK. The same logic should be applied for demotions. A MK guy gets the first spot available after all KK got theirs.

[Tigerboy1966 1,428]

Just looking at my first draft and I think that Oho might survive. Anyone agree or have I lost my wits?

[Kotononami 86]

Down : Hidenoumi, Tsurugisho, Kaisei, Oho 

Up : Kagayaki , Kotoshoho , Nishikigi , Kotokuzan

[Tigerboy1966 1,428]

2 minutes ago, Kotononami said:

Down : Hidenoumi, Tsurugisho, Kaisei, Oho 

Up : Kagayaki , Kotoshoho , Nishikigi , Kotokuzan

Down: Ichiyamamoto?

[Kotononami 86]

Just now, Tigerboy1966 said:

Down: Ichiyamamoto?

He's M17w on my first GTB try.

[Koorifuu 924]

15 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Just looking at my first draft and I think that Oho might survive. Anyone agree or have I lost my wits?

Since the M18e position is going to be extinct due to the extra ozeki, keeping Oho in makuuchi would mean he'd be promoted with a makekoshi. I've only seen that happen after the 'technical examination' basho. Oho's only minimally realistic chance of survival directly involves Mitakeumi being shown a massive middle finger by those in charge.

Edited January 23, 2022 by Koorifuu

[Tigerboy1966 1,428]

Just now, Kotononami said:

2 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Down: Ichiyamamoto?

He's M17w on my first GTB try.

Ah I see. If you keep Oho in makuuchi he would be promoted to M17w with a losing record and that won't happen. Lucky for Ichiyamamoto.

[ryafuji 811]

Chiyonokuni is safe right? I presume so as no-one is mentioning him!