Gurowake

Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

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24 minutes ago, Reonito said:

A Mote reference!!!

I've never read the source material, but I like the idiom.

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3 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I've never read the source material, but I like the idiom.

It's good if you like scifi #offtopic

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2 hours ago, Katooshu said:

Mukainakano was virtually unstoppable in his final year of middle school, winning 2 of the 3 major national titles and coming 3rd in the other tournament (loss via henka). He then went on to Tottori Johoku, where he was a regular on the 5 and 3 man teams even as a freshman. In his 2nd-year he made the finals of a national tournament and was ranked as ozeki on the high school banzuke, the highest spot of anyone in his year and right next to high school and ozumo stablemate Hokuseiho. His 3rd year of high school was pretty much destroyed by COVID cancellations. 

He was also primary school yokozuna I believe....so a long and successful history in amasumo. He is much better than the standard super heavyweight kid who dominated when younger due to size, and his success hasn't sputtered out as he's gotten older. He does strong and composed oshi sumo, and should make sekitori eventually. An obvious lack of speed and undeveloped belt game are his main limitations.

So a very solid prospect. Aside from Inoue, he also bulldozed collegiate opposition like Hitoshi and Miyagi....

I remember he was called "Block Musashimaru" on his crop's recruit thread here, and everyone agreed the resemblance was uncanny.

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2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

really hard to type, with basically no pattern of letters that's typically used in shiknoa.

That's not the only term ...

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Kaisei's withdrawal cements a quick return for Kagyaki, and drops Kaisei to juryo unless he can return and rack up some wins.

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4 hours ago, Katooshu said:

Mukainakano was virtually unstoppable in his final year of middle school, winning 2 of the 3 major national titles and coming 3rd in the other tournament (loss via henka). He then went on to Tottori Johoku, where he was a regular on the 5 and 3 man teams even as a freshman. In his 2nd-year he made the finals of a national tournament and was ranked as ozeki on the high school banzuke, the highest spot of anyone in his year and right next to high school and ozumo stablemate Hokuseiho. His 3rd year of high school was pretty much destroyed by COVID cancellations. 

He was also primary school yokozuna I believe....so a long and successful history in amasumo. He is much better than the standard super heavyweight kid who dominated when younger due to size, and his success hasn't sputtered out as he's gotten older. He does strong and composed oshi sumo, and should make sekitori eventually. An obvious lack of speed and undeveloped belt game are his main limitations.

So a very solid prospect. Aside from Inoue, he also bulldozed collegiate opposition like Hitoshi and Miyagi....

Due to being out in September due to Covid, he has gone under the radar slightly. But his Shindeshi class is also really good. Shunrai and Kiryuko both have either won or contended for a yusho, Hitoshi won September's Jonidan Yusho, and Nobehara and Miyagi have both looked impressive. 

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14 hours ago, Kashunowaka said:

But Takanosho only needs one win to stay in sanyaku, so I still think it's unlikely that lower sanyaku is completely vacated.

It'll be a hard buy after today's loss to Abi. He still has Terunofuji and Mitakeumi to go and he's almost certain to lose to them, so that instantly puts him makekoshi. His last opponent is one of the Hakkaku-beya pair or Chiyoshoma, which looks slightly ok but could be risky if he gets Hokutofuji. 

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Day 12

Meisei made a step towards protecting his komusibi slot and made the championship race more interesting by beating Terunofuji, after Mitakeumi dropped his bout to Onosho, who is KK. Mitakeumi and Abi, both at 10-2, are scheduled to meet on Day 13. Hoshoryu is KK, Chiyoshoma is MK after today.

  10-2 Terunofuji Y      
  1-3-8 Takakeisho O Shodai 5-7  
  10-2 Mitakeumi S Takanosho 6-6  
  5-7 Meisei K Daieisho 4-8 (x)
  6-6 Wakatakakage M1 Kiribayama 5-7  
  6-6 Ura M2 Ichinojo 6-6  
  7-5 Tamawashi M3 Endo 5-7  
      M4 Hokutofuji 5-7  
  8-4 Onosho M5 Chiyoshoma 4-8 (x)
  8-4 Hoshoryu M6 Abi 10-2  
      M7 Takarafuji 8-4  

Wakamotoharu removes all doubts that existed in my head whether he would be demoted with a 6-9 record by winning his 7th bout. So did Aoiyama, who has now entered a safe harbour. Barring a return and winning at least 2 of the 3 remaining bouts, Kaisei will be heading to juryo after today's withdrawal.

Picking up a default win against Kaisei, Kagayaki ensured his promotion back to makuuchi. Asanowaka is removed from contention after today's loss to Chiyoarashi.

(x) 0-0-12 Hidenoumi M8      
(1) 2-10 Chiyonokuni M9      
      M10 Akua 3-9 (1)
      M11      
      M12 Chiyotairyu 4-8 (1)
      M13 Yutakayama 4-8 (2)
      M14 Ichiyamamoto 4-8 (2)
(o) 7-5 Wakamotoharu M15 Tochinoshin 5-7 (2)
(o) 7-5 Aoiyama M16 Tsurugisho 5-7 (2)
      M17 Kaisei 5-7 (x)
(1) 7-5 Oho M18      
             
(o) 8-4 Kagayaki J1      
(3) 6-6 Nishikigi J2 Kotoshoho 10-2 (o)
(2) 7-5 Daiamami J3      
      J4 Kotokuzan 8-4 (2)
(3) 7-5 Kaisho J5 Azumaryu 7-5 (3)
(x) 7-5 Asanowaka J6      
      J7      
(3) 9-3 Tohakuryu J8      

Churanoumi, Enho and Hakuyozan draw one win closer to safety. 

Takakento confirms his repromotion to juryo after 2 tournaments today by winning his exchange bout with Hiradoumi. The fourth juryo promotion still undecided so far. Atamifuji has not been scheduled to fight on Day 13, and neither have been Kairyu or Tochimaru.

(x) 0-0-12 Asanoyama J4      
      ...      
      J9 Churanoumi 4-8 (1)
      J10 Enho 5-7 (1)
(1) 5-7 Hakuyozan J11 Chiyonoo 0-5-7 (x)
(x) 0-0-12 Shiden J12 Kitanowaka 7-5 (o)
(1) 6-6 Kotoyusho J13 Chiyoarashi 3-9 (x)
(2) 6-6 Hiradoumi J14      
             
      Ms1 Atamifuji 3-3 (1)
      Ms2 Shimazuumi 4-2 (o)
(o) 4-3 Takakento Ms3      
(~) 3-3 Kairyu Ms4 Tochimaru 4-2 (~)
(o) 6-0 Ryuden Ms5      
  3-3 Dewanoryu Ms6      
  3-3 Roga Ms7      
  3-3 Kotoozutsu Ms8 Fukai 4-2 (x)
      Ms9 Kanno 5-1 (~)

***

18 hours ago, Sue said:

Why are Fukai and Kanno at two wins out? They're outside the Ms5 promotion zone, and should have needed a zensho to advance.

In addition to what Reonito pointed out, Hakuho's promotion in 2003 has also been noted earlier in the topic.

18 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Wakamotoharu is already safe by-the-numbers.

Putting numbers on Makushita rikishi is kinda hard, because there are much loose rules for determining who is promotable.  It's obviously an issue for other promotions as well, but there's no "one win over loss equals one rank" kinda of thing like there is for sekitori, which makes it not necessarily obvious how to compare records and to determine what exactly a minimally demotable rikishi will be replaced for.  The deep 4-1s in Makushita might even get in without 2 wins simply because they're needed and are the best available.

Fair enough. I wasn't very comfortable with counting Wakamotoharu as safe, considering M18 is the border between makuuchi and juryo, and might not even exist next tournament. I'll adjust the method starting from this post.

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Are we sure a 4-3 Takakento would be ahead of a 5-2 Tochimaru if it came to choosing one over the other, especially given the head-to-head result?

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2 hours ago, Reonito said:

Are we sure a 4-3 Takakento would be ahead of a 5-2 Tochimaru if it came to choosing one over the other, especially given the head-to-head result?

1.5 ranks difference and 2 wins against juryo opponents by Takakento should probably outweigh a 5-2 record with maybe 1 exchange bout won out of 2 (currently 0 out of 1) by Tochimaru. Though maybe this particular puzzle plays itself out in a more confidence-inspiring fashion.

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Wow, so possible Ms9 promotion without a zensho? I guess in that case Tochimaru would surely get in too.

Like Reonito I wouldn't have thought a 4-3 Ms3e would be a lock over a 5-2 Ms4w, though admittedly I don't follow this stuff closely. Database shows very similar results for those rank + record combinations. 

Edited by Katooshu

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11 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

Wow, so possible Ms9 promotion without a zensho? I guess in that case Tochimaru would surely get in too.

After Takakento's win, we have 3 clear promotion cases; Tochimaru will be somewhere between 4th and 6th in line depending on how the remaining bouts go. So probably no need for unorthodox promotions, unless perhaps Hiradoumi loses the rest of his bouts.

Edited by Reonito

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Day 12 update to sanyaku promotion race:

Abi - M1w

Wakatakakage, Tamawashi, Onosho - M4e

Ura, Hoshoryu - M5e

Ichinojo - M5w

Kiribayama, Takarafuji - M6w

Endo - M8w

Hokutofuji - M9w

Abi has a large enough lead that he will continue to lead tomorrow, but can still be overtaken over 3 days by enough rikishi to not make him a lock for promotion.
 

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Lower division yusho:

No action, but we know what they're going with in terms of Yusho deciders:

Makushita is indeed a straight fight for the Yusho between Ryuden and Nishikawa.

Sandanme will have at least one 7-0 between Osanai and Chiyodaigo, while Mukainakano is up against 5-1 Sd59 Miyagi, who's been mentioned in this thread before.

Jonidan thus has the expected straight fight for the Yusho between Asahanshin and Kawamura.

The 6-0 Jk rikishi, Nakashima, actually faces a 5-1 from Jk as well, Nishikimaru, who has more motivation than a random 5-1 from lower Jonidan to win.  Of course, with a 38-72 lifetime record, i doubt he'll put up much of a fight.

 

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Juryo Yusho:

Only Kotoshoho was victorious among the leaders, though his opponent was one of the other leaders, Tohakuryu.  Yago failed to keep pace against Churanoumi.  Since there was no one at 1 behind yesterday, those two falling off the pace are the only ones one-behind today.  They're putting Yago up against the leader, while Tohakuryu faces Kagayaki who I guess is the next best opponent as one of those 2 off the pace.  Kotokuzan is the only other remaining rikishi at 2 behind, and he faces someone who definitely is not in his heya, Kotoyusho, who is at 6-6 and needs one more wins to stay assured of a place in Juryo.  Note Kotokuzan is likewise definitely not in Kotoshoho's heya, and they met on Day 4.

Edited by Gurowake

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So they went with Abi-Terunofuji for Day 14, but Mitakeumi gets Takarafuji, not Takanosho (who fights Kotonowaka) (Scratchingchin...)

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33 minutes ago, Reonito said:

So they went with Abi-Terunofuji for Day 14, but Mitakeumi gets Takarafuji, not Takanosho (who fights Kotonowaka) (Scratchingchin...)

The thought process has to be that Takarafuji would have less to prove than Takanosho. 

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So what is this, the 3rd time in the last 5 basho that Shodai isn't fighting Teru?

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9 hours ago, Reonito said:

So they went with Abi-Terunofuji for Day 14, but Mitakeumi gets Takarafuji, not Takanosho (who fights Kotonowaka) (Scratchingchin...)

Since Takarafuji was out of the race, essentially, before the bouts started, why not Mitakeumi - Kotonowaka? (They could still do Takanosho - Takarafuji). My guess is that Takarafuji is in the same heya as Terunofuji and thus has motivation to perform against Mitakeumi. Even so, I'm not sure there was a need not to do Mitakeumi - Takanosho.

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36 minutes ago, Sakura said:

Since Takarafuji was out of the race, essentially, before the bouts started, why not Mitakeumi - Kotonowaka? (They could still do Takanosho - Takarafuji). My guess is that Takarafuji is in the same heya as Terunofuji and thus has motivation to perform against Mitakeumi. Even so, I'm not sure there was a need not to do Mitakeumi - Takanosho.

Was Takarafuji out of the race before the bouts?  If Terunofuji lost, then the winner of Mitakeumi-Abi vs. Terunofuji would not guarantee someone at 12 wins.  They're quite clearly paranoid about maegashira outside the joi winning without being tested against the sanyaku, especially after the losses of both leaders Day 12.  Enough that the scheduled matches between sanyaku simply don't matter - only the Yusho race does.  They've definitely totally shifted to Bench Sumo thinking.  Now with Terunofuji winning, we're guaranteed 12 wins for either him or Mitakeumi (after he beat Abi) unless they decide for some reason to not do Terunofuji-Mitakeumi Day 15, which puts all the 9 win people out of the race, but that wasn't the case when the matchups were decided.

Edited by Gurowake
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2 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

They've definitely totally shifted to Bench Sumo thinking.  

Not a bad thing, and I need to remember that for GHA in the future. However, it does mean that the potential for poorly performing Ozeki could miss out on tough bouts and waltz through to an easier 8 wins.

That being said, it is true that Takarafuji was not completely out of the race, but given that 11 wins was the minimum yusho line, he could only do that via playoff. Ishiura was in the same position and was not given a sanyaku foe. It could be that they really needed a genki sanyaku opponent for Kotonowaka and therefore Shodai, Meisei and Daieisho were out. They could have done Mitakeumi - Kotonowaka, though. 

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1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

Was Takarafuji out of the race before the bouts?

Yes, he was 8-4 on day 12, same as Ishiura IIRC. Technically not completely out at that time, but Terunofuji v Mitakeumi at some point meant it was highly unlikely that he would get a look in save by playoff. That's not the case with Abi or Kotonowaka.

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Day 13

Yusho race continues with Terunofuji and Mitakeumi in the lead, Abi trailing by 1 win, having lost today to Mitakeumi. As Ross Mihara correctly pointed out on today's NHK stream, it's a round robin between the three rikishi on the last 3 days. Terunofuji vs Abi tomorrow and Terunofuji vs Mitakeumi on senshuraku.

Meisei complicated his sanyaku life by losing today. One more loss will definitely cost him his rank, but it is already shaky as it is with no shortage of rikishi gunning for KK in the joi. However, Kiribayama, Endo and Hokutofuji are not among those after today's losses.

  11-2 Terunofuji Y      
  1-3-9 Takakeisho O Shodai 5-8  
  11-2 Mitakeumi S Takanosho 6-7  
(?) 5-8 Meisei K Daieisho 5-8 (x)
  7-6 Wakatakakage M1 Kiribayama 5-8 (x)
  7-6 Ura M2 Ichinojo 7-6  
  7-6 Tamawashi M3 Endo 5-8 (x)
      M4 Hokutofuji 5-8 (x)
  9-4 Onosho M5      
  9-4 Hoshoryu M6 Abi 10-3  
      M7 Takarafuji 9-4  

Today's win by Chiyotairyu puts him into the safe territory by the numbers. Oho - Akua are matched up on Day 14, and a win by either rikishi would guarantee them safety from demotion.

Nishikigi and Ichiyamamoto will fight an exchange bout. Kaisho and Azumaryu are no longer in contention for promotion after losing today.

(x) 0-0-13 Hidenoumi M8      
(1) 2-11 Chiyonokuni M9      
      M10 Akua 3-10 (1)
      M11      
      M12 Chiyotairyu 5-8 (o)
      M13 Yutakayama 5-8 (1)
      M14 Ichiyamamoto 4-9 (2)
(o) 7-6 Wakamotoharu M15 Tochinoshin 6-7 (1)
(o) 8-5 Aoiyama M16 Tsurugisho 5-8 (2)
  8-5 Kotoeko M17 Kaisei 5-7-1 (x)
(1) 7-6 Oho M18      
             
(o) 8-5 Kagayaki J1      
(2) 7-6 Nishikigi J2 Kotoshoho 10-3
(o)
(2) 7-6 Daiamami J3      
      J4 Kotokuzan 9-4
(1)
(x) 7-6 Kaisho J5 Azumaryu 7-6
(x)
      J6      
      J7      
(2) 10-3 Tohakuryu J8      

Churanoumi and Enho pulled themselves into safety. 

Day 14 will see 3 exchange bouts between juryo and makushita: Chiyoarashi - Tochimaru, Kotoyusho - Atamifuji and Hiradoumi - Shimazuumi. A loss by Chiyoarashi will cement his trip back to makushita.

Dewanoryu also won today, further complicating the promotion situation. It really is going to depend on how many slots are available in juryo.

(x) 0-0-13 Asanoyama J4      
      ...      
      J9 Churanoumi 5-8 (o)
      J10 Enho 6-7 (o)
(1) 5-8 Hakuyozan J11 Chiyonoo 0-5-8 (x)
(x) 0-0-13 Shiden J12 Kitanowaka 8-5 (o)
(1) 6-7 Kotoyusho J13 Chiyoarashi 4-9 (x)
(2) 6-7 Hiradoumi J14      
             
      Ms1 Atamifuji 3-3 (1)
      Ms2 Shimazuumi 4-2 (o)
(o) 4-3 Takakento Ms3      
(~) 3-3 Kairyu Ms4 Tochimaru 4-2 (~)
(o) 6-1 Ryuden Ms5      
(~) 4-3 Dewanoryu Ms6      
(x) 3-4 Roga Ms7      
(x) 3-4 Kotoozutsu Ms8 Fukai 4-2  
      Ms9 Kanno 5-1 (~)
Edited by Masunofuji
mixed up NHK commentator's name
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1 hour ago, Masunofuji said:

Kaisho and Azumaryu are no longer in contention for promotion after losing today.

             

I wouldn't say that completely. There have been instances of a J5 with a 9-6 record going up, including Ichinojo in 2020. Sometimes rikishi who don't have the numbers for promotion get promoted when there is a corresponding rikishi who has to be demoted. In this case it doesn't seem likely that they'd make it, given the records in lower Makuuchi.

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18 minutes ago, Sakura said:

I wouldn't say that completely. There have been instances of a J5 with a 9-6 record going up, including Ichinojo in 2020. Sometimes rikishi who don't have the numbers for promotion get promoted when there is a corresponding rikishi who has to be demoted. In this case it doesn't seem likely that they'd make it, given the records in lower Makuuchi.

I don't think their records can be strong enough to push down any of the borderline incumbents, and Kotokuzan is guaranteed a better promotion case, so this could only come into play if all of the guys with the (2) next to them lose both of their remaining bouts. 

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