Kintamayama

Hatsu 2022 ISP carnage

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I don't remember anything remotely like these first two days. Only 13 players with 2 wins after two days?

Edited by Kintamayama

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Obviously the fault of the guy choosing the bouts. You should reprimand him.

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5 minutes ago, Benihana said:

Obviously the fault of the guy choosing the bouts. You should reprimand him.

On the contrary, he's fully enjoying it. (Laughing...)

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2 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

I don't remember anything remotely like these first two days. Only 13 players with 2 wins after two days?

Rare to have two matches in a row go against a lopsided recent history for the 2 rikishi. 

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2 hours ago, Rocks said:

Rare to have two matches in a row go against a lopsided recent history for the 2 rikishi. 

Oh, we've had many, many  of those but usually players in the past would take a bit more into consideration than recent scores. And lopsided recent history? Anyone who relies on that deserves to lose. But this discussion has been had many times before and I always disagreed with the notion that only even recent history bouts should be picked. Tamawashi-Daieishou - 8-8 in past meetings. Hokutofuji- Ounoshou- 6-6 past meetings. Maybe I'll go tomorrow with an 11-3 matchup where the guy with the three won his last two. Not. For the record, I lost both bouts as well. 

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31 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

 For the record, I lost both bouts as well. 

It's ok, we're only 121 of those...
As for "go for or against recent lopsided recent history" with so many players with zero wins, I'm sure that all "strategies" have been used among them.

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48 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

Oh, we've had many, many  of those but usually players in the past would take a bit more into consideration than recent scores. And lopsided recent history? Anyone who relies on that deserves to lose. But this discussion has been had many times before and I always disagreed with the notion that only even recent history bouts should be picked. Tamawashi-Daieishou - 8-8 in past meetings. Hokutofuji- Ounoshou- 6-6 past meetings. Maybe I'll go tomorrow with an 11-3 matchup where the guy with the three won his last two. Not. For the record, I lost both bouts as well. 

I didn't mean to make a big deal of it. Just pointing out many rely on that to make their picks which could explain why so few winning picks.

Edited by Rocks
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And it gets even better! More than half the field stand on zero wins after day 3. I almost picked Chiyomaru, but no...

Edited by Kashunowaka

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Just now, Kashunowaka said:

And it gets even better! About 2/3 of the field stand on zero wins after day 3. I almost picked Chiyomaru, but no...

And it's not that these were major upsets.  All matchups were equal. Today? 10-10 between Ishiura and Chiyomaru, but Ishiura has more muscles..

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1 minute ago, Kintamayama said:

And it's not that these were major upsets.  All matchups were equal. Today? 10-10 between Ishiura and Chiyomaru, but Ishiura has more muscles..

Yes, I always tend to underestimate Chiyomaru. Always.

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1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

And it's not that these were major upsets.  All matchups were equal. Today? 10-10 between Ishiura and Chiyomaru, but Ishiura has more muscles..

True. All even matches talent wise. But I thought Ishiura would win after looking so good the day before when he tossed Sadanoumi around. Just got blown away.

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3 minutes ago, Rocks said:

True. All even matches talent wise. But I thought Ishiura would win after looking so good the day before when he tossed Sadanoumi around. Just got blown away.

And if we go with the logic of "their last matchups", well, Chiyomaru leads 7-2 in their last 9 matchups. And yet, we are wrong..

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And the carnage continues with many sumo game leaders hovering around 2-9, which is really unheard of. As usual, I can't understand this, but let's not get into that discussion again.. Anyhow, makekoshi line at 24th place.. out of 179 players..

Edited by Kintamayama

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3 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

And the carnage continues with many sumo game leaders hovering around 2-9, which is really unheard of. As usual, I can't understand this, but let's not get into that discussion again.. Anyhow, makekoshi line at 24th place.. out of 179 players..

These have been good match picks if that's what's worrying you. They just haven't gone the way of the "percentages" an awful lot this basho. But that happens. I don't really calculate percentages on paper but but looking at things like the record this basho, recent few matches, head to head records, etc. I put Tobizaru and Takanosho as slight favorites the last couple matches. They lost. That's been true a lot for ISP this basho. But still fine picks for matches. I had a feeling Hoshoryu might  win but still didn't start him in bench as Takaknosho has looked good and was coming off an Ozeki win. I was sure Chiyonokuni would beat Okinoumi but didn't start him as I  didn't want to pick that match unless I had to as that could have gone any which way. I don't have any clue why anyone picked Okinoumi last night unless they absolutely had to. Yes, he's better that Choyonkuni but his movement is nonexistent this basho and Chiyonokuni was bound to beat somebody.

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2 hours ago, Rocks said:

These have been good match picks if that's what's worrying you. 

I'm not worried at all- on the contrary, I'm worried. Seriously though, i will never understand the extent of the lopsidedness some of these matchups produced. In the past, we could see other peoples' picks before the deadline so I thought it was the "sheep" phenomenon, but now that the guesses are not public beforehand, I simply have no idea why what seems to me like totally even matchups produce these lopsided numbers.

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1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

I'm not worried at all- on the contrary, I'm worried. Seriously though, i will never understand the extent of the lopsidedness some of these matchups produced. In the past, we could see other peoples' picks before the deadline so I thought it was the "sheep" phenomenon, but now that the guesses are not public beforehand, I simply have no idea why what seems to me like totally even matchups produce these lopsided numbers.

I can usually guess which side will be more popular, no problem. It's just amazing how you can constantly pick matchups where the underdog wins.

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9 minutes ago, Kaito said:

I can usually guess which side will be more popular, no problem. It's just amazing how you can constantly pick matchups where the underdog wins.

That's my superpower , but only this basho..

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51 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

That's my superpower , but only this basho..

It's not usually this extreme, but it's been similar for me for as long as I've been playing the game. If I could stick to always picking the unpopular sides, I'd probably do better.

It's gotten to the point where you're spoiling the results and making me want to change Toto picks. And it's a shame because I really needed Oho to win today for the Norizo Cup special question.

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10 minutes ago, Kaito said:

It's gotten to the point where you're spoiling the results and making me want to change Toto picks. And it's a shame because I really needed Oho to win today for the Norizo Cup special question.

Sorry..

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24 KK, 155 MK, 100 double digit MK. That's brütal! It looks like some MK player could even rise in rank, because everyone around them effed up even more horribly.

M8w Achiyama is the highest rank with a KK. That will be a hell of a jump in ranks for a mere 8-7. Then there are Pirikarafuji (9-6 M12W) and Kishikaisei (9-6 M15W). And that's it for makuuchi KKs. I wonder where Gobofuji  (10-5 J10W) will end up.

Could we do a GTB special for the next ISP banzuke?

 

Edited by Benihana

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55 minutes ago, Benihana said:

Could we do a GTB special for the next ISP banzuke?

I'm 100% sure I would win this contest  (Whistling...)

Ganzohnesushi

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10 hours ago, Benihana said:

24 KK, 155 MK, 100 double digit MK. That's brütal! It looks like some MK player could even rise in rank, because everyone around them effed up even more horribly.

M8w Achiyama is the highest rank with a KK. That will be a hell of a jump in ranks for a mere 8-7. Then there are Pirikarafuji (9-6 M12W) and Kishikaisei (9-6 M15W). And that's it für makuuchi KKs. I wonder where Gobofuji  (10-5 J10W) will end up.

Could we do a GTB special for the next ISP banzuke?

 

Usually there is a compensation up-curve 'when results like this happen and vice versa. I'm sure our esteemed banzuke-maker will know how to handle this, although nothing even remotely close has ever happened in ISP, and I daresay, in any game before..

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1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

...nothing even remotely close has ever happened in ISP, and I daresay, in any game before...

Different, but just as ugly...

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