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Asashosakari

Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Hatsu 2022

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Posted (edited)

Sorry this is so late again...I meant to wait to see if any more stables were going to be affected by Covid timeouts and then got sidetracked on my intended posting days. Without further ado, the lineup for Hatsu 2022, LKS's 75th edition:

 1. Terunofuji     16  [score?]
 2. Kotoyusho       7
 3. Mitakeumi       6  [score?]
 4. Atamifuji       6*
 5. Abi             5
 6. Asanowaka       5
 7. Kanno           5*
 8. Tomokaze        5
 9. Kaishinmaru     5
10. Tanji           5
11. Nagata          5*
12. Shodai          4  [score?]
13. Bushozan        4

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

  • For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.
  • For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

(For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 13 guys up there and the further 13 12 rikishi (6 'veterans'6 5 newcomers (please disregard Nishihara), and returnee Kototaikiwho are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 26 25. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 12 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Terunofuji.

Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order).

Final tie-breaker: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi noon JST.

-----

Simplified entry template:

1. Terunofuji W-L
2. Kotoyusho KKMK
3. Mitakeumi W-L
4. Atamifuji KKMK
5. Abi KKMK
6. Asanowaka KKMK
7. Kanno KKMK
8. Tomokaze KKMK
9. Kaishinmaru KKMK
10. Tanji KKMK
11. Nagata KKMK
12. Shodai W-L
13. Bushozan KKMK

TB xx

-----

Good luck!

Edited by Asashosakari

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The delayed announcement does mean I can immediately point out that one of the intended starters will not be part of the game: Off-ballot rikishi Nishihara is listed as kyujo by the Kyokai, so please take that into account in making your tie-breaker selections.

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Check the year.

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1. Terunofuji    13-2
 2. Kotoyusho       MK
 3. Mitakeumi       9-6
 4. Atamifuji       KK
 5. Abi             KK
 6. Asanowaka       MK
 7. Kanno           KK
 8. Tomokaze        KK
 9. Kaishinmaru     MK
10. Tanji           KK
11. Nagata          KK
12. Shodai          8-7
13. Bushozan        MK

TB 14

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1. Terunofuji        14-1
2. Kotoyusho                                    MK
3. Mitakeumi       10-5
4. Atamifuji                        KK
5. Abi                                  KK
6. Asanowaka                   KK
7. Kanno                            KK
8. Tomokaze                     KK
9. Kaishinmaru                                 MK
10. Tanji                                             MK
11. Nagata                                        MK
12. Shodai         9-6
13. Bushozan                    KK

TB 12

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1. Terunofuji 13 - 2
2. Kotoyusho MK
3. Mitakeumi 9 - 6
4. Atamifuji KK
5. Abi KK
6. Asanowaka KK
7. Kanno KK
8. Tomokaze KK
9. Kaishinmaru KK
10. Tanji KK
11. Nagata MK
12. Shodai 8 - 7
13. Bushozan KK

TB 14

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1. Terunofuji 13-2
2. Kotoyusho MK
3. Mitakeumi 10-5
4. Atamifuji KK
5. Abi KK
6. Asanowaka KK
7. Kanno KK
8. Tomokaze KK
9. Kaishinmaru KK
10. Tanji KK
11. Nagata MK
12. Shodai 9-6
13. Bushozan MK

TB 13

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 1. Terunofuji     14 : 1
 2. Kotoyusho      MK
 3. Mitakeumi      10 : 5
 4. Atamifuji      KK
 5. Abi            KK
 6. Asanowaka      KK
 7. Kanno          KK
 8. Tomokaze       KK
 9. Kaishinmaru    KK
10. Tanji          KK
11. Nagata         MK
12. Shodai          9 : 6
13. Bushozan       MK

TB: 13

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1. Terunofuji     12-3
 2. Kotoyusho       KK
 3. Mitakeumi       10-5
 4. Atamifuji       KK
 5. Abi             KK
 6. Asanowaka   KK
 7. Kanno           KK
 8. Tomokaze        KK
 9. Kaishinmaru     KK
10. Tanji           KK
11. Nagata          KK
12. Shodai          9-6
13. Bushozan        KK

TB: 16

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. Terunofuji  14
2. Kotoyusho MK
3. Mitakeumi 9
4. Atamifuji KK
5. Abi KK
6. Asanowaka KK
7. Kanno KK
8. Tomokaze KK
9. Kaishinmaru MK
10. Tanji MK
11. Nagata KK
12. Shodai 9
13. Bushozan KK

TB 14

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1. Terunofuji 15 - 0
2. Kotoyusho MK
3. Mitakeumi 9 - 6
4. Atamifuji KK
5. Abi KK
6. Asanowaka KK
7. Kanno MK
8. Tomokaze KK
9. Kaishinmaru MK
10. Tanji KK
11. Nagata MK
12. Shodai 8 - 7
13. Bushozan KK

TB 12

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1. Terunofuji 14-1
2. Kotoyusho MK
3. Mitakeumi 9-6
4. Atamifuji KK
5. Abi KK
6. Asanowaka KK
7. Kanno KK
8. Tomokaze KK
9. Kaishinmaru KK
10. Tanji MK
11. Nagata MK
12. Shodai 9-6
13. Bushozan MK

TB 14

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1. Terunofuji 13-2
2. Kotoyusho MK
3. Mitakeumi 10-5
4. Atamifuji MK
5. Abi KK
6. Asanowaka KK
7. Kanno KK
8. Tomokaze KK
9. Kaishinmaru MK
10. Tanji MK
11. Nagata KK
12. Shodai 9-6
13. Bushozan MK

 TB 13

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1. Terunofuji 14-1
2. Kotoyusho KK
3. Mitakeumi 12-3
4. Atamifuji KK
5. Abi KK
6. Asanowaka KK
7. Kanno KK
8. Tomokaze KK
9. Kaishinmaru KK
10. Tanji KK
11. Nagata MK
12. Shodai 10-5
13. Bushozan 9-6

TB 12

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1. Terunofuji 12-3
2. Kotoyusho MK
3. Mitakeumi 11-4
4. Atamifuji KK
5. Abi KK
6. Asanowaka KK
7. Kanno MK
8. Tomokaze KK
9. Kaishinmaru MK
10. Tanji KK
11. Nagata MK
12. Shodai 9-6
13. Bushozan MK

TB 16

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13 Terunofuji
- Kotoyusho
10 Mitakeumi
+ Atamifuji
+ Abi
+ Asanowaka
- Kanno
+ Tomokaze
- Kaishinmaru
- Tanji
- Nagata
9 Shodai
+ Bushozan

TB 14

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Results?

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Eger, Heves, Hungary

On 08/01/2022 at 04:04, Asashosakari said:

1. Terunofuji 13
2. Kotoyusho MK
3. Mitakeumi 10
4. Atamifuji KKMK
5. Abi KKMK
6. Asanowaka KK
7. Kanno MK
8. Tomokaze KK
9. Kaishinmaru MK
10. Tanji MK
11. Nagata MK
12. Shodai 9
13. Bushozan MK

TB 13

 

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At last and finally...

Player Teru Koto Mita Atami Abi Asano Kanno Tomo Kaishin Tanji Nagata Shodai Busho   TB   Cons
Rocks - 13-2 - - 9-6 + + - + + - + + - 8-7 - 14 1.84
chishafuwaku + 14-1 - + 10-5 + + + + + - - - + 9-6 + 12 1.19
Athenayama - 13-2 - - 9-6 + + + + + + + - - 8-7 + 14 1.44
Hakuryuho - 13-2 - + 10-5 + + + + + + + - + 9-6 - 13 1.16
Profomisakari + 14-1 - + 10-5 + + + + + + + - + 9-6 - 13 1.19
Jejima - 12-3 + + 10-5 + + + + + + + + + 9-6 + 16 1.50
Mmikasazuma + 14-1 - - 9-6 + + + + + - - + + 9-6 + 14 1.42
Holleshoryu + 15-0 - - 9-6 + + + - + - + - - 8-7 + 12 1.62
WAKATAKE + 14-1 - - 9-6 + + + + + + - - + 9-6 - 14 1.37
ryafuji - 13-2 - + 10-5 - + + + + - - + + 9-6 - 13 1.65
Tameiki + 14-1 + + 12-3 + + + + + + + - + 10-5 + 12 1.40
Tsuchinoninjin - 12-3 - + 11-4 + + + - + - + - + 9-6 - 16 0.00
Asashosakari - 13-2 - + 10-5 + + + - + - - - + 9-6 + 14 1.37
  6:7 2:11 8:5 12:1 13:0 12:1 10:3 13:0 6:7 8:5 4:9 10:3 7:6    
Results - - + + + + + + - + - - -    

 

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Posted (edited)

Day 8

ballot: KK (no point yet) for sekiwake Mitakeumi, KK for Tomokaze, MK for Bushozan

off-ballot: KK for Kototaiki
 

Day 8:
2/13 Decisions, TB 3-24
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Hakuryuho 2 13
1 Profomisakari 2 13
1 Rocks 2 14
1 ryafuji 2 13
1 WAKATAKE 2 14
6 Tsuchinoninjin 2 16
7 Asashosakari 1 14
7 Athenayama 1 14
7 Mmikasazuma 1 14
10 chishafuwaku 1 12
10 Holleshoryu 1 12
10 Tameiki 1 12
13 Jejima 1 16

 

Day 9

ballot: KK (no point yet) for yokozuna Terunofuji, KK for Kanno and Tanji

off-ballot: KK for Moji and Tatsuguchi, MK (absent after 1-3) for Kotodaigo
 

Day 9:
4/13 Decisions, TB 8-23
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Rocks 4 14
2 Hakuryuho 4 13
2 Profomisakari 4 13
4 Jejima 3 16
4 Tsuchinoninjin 3 16
6 Athenayama 3 14
6 WAKATAKE 3 14
8 ryafuji 3 13
9 Tameiki 3 12
10 Mmikasazuma 2 14
11 chishafuwaku 2 12
11 Holleshoryu 2 12
13 Asashosakari 1 14

 

Day 10

ballot: KK for Abi, MK for Kaishinmaru

off-ballot: KK for Fujitoshi, MK for Yoshino
 

Day 10:
6/13 Decisions, TB 10-21
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Rocks 6 14
2 Tsuchinoninjin 5 16
3 Hakuryuho 5 13
3 Profomisakari 5 13
3 ryafuji 5 13
6 Jejima 4 16
7 Athenayama 4 14
7 Mmikasazuma 4 14
7 WAKATAKE 4 14
10 chishafuwaku 4 12
10 Holleshoryu 4 12
10 Tameiki 4 12
13 Asashosakari 3 14

 

Edited by Asashosakari

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Day 11

ballot: 10th win and positive outcome for Mitakeumi, 7th loss and negative outcome (not MK yet) for ozeki Shodai

off-ballot: -
 

Day 11:
8/13 Decisions, TB 10-21
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Rocks 7 14
2 Tsuchinoninjin 6 16
3 Hakuryuho 6 13
3 Profomisakari 6 13
3 ryafuji 6 13
6 Jejima 5 16
7 Athenayama 5 14
8 chishafuwaku 5 12
8 Holleshoryu 5 12
8 Tameiki 5 12
11 Asashosakari 4 14
11 Mmikasazuma 4 14
11 WAKATAKE 4 14

 

Day 12

ballot: 2nd loss and negative outcome for Terunofuji, MK for Nagata

off-ballot: KK for Tatsukaze, MK for Mineyaiba and Kamitani
 

Day 12:
10/13 Decisions, TB 11-18
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Rocks 8 14
2 Hakuryuho 8 13
2 Tsuchinoninjin 8 16
4 Athenayama 7 14
5 Profomisakari 7 13
5 ryafuji 7 13
7 Asashosakari 6 14
8 Jejima 6 16
9 chishafuwaku 6 12
9 Holleshoryu 6 12
9 Tameiki 6 12
12 WAKATAKE 5 14
13 Mmikasazuma 4 14

 

Day 13

ballot: MK for Shodai

off-ballot: KK for Kamito

No change to the standings, possible TB range reduced to 12-17


Ballot rikishi remaining: 6-7 Kotoyusho and 3-3 Atamifuji (matched up on Day 14, impossible to have both finish KK), 7-6 Asanowaka

Off-ballot rikishi remaining: 3-3 Hokutoiwa, 3-3 Akisada

Still able to win the tournament:

  • with MK for Asanowaka: Rocks, regardless of other outcomes
  • with KK for Asanowaka:
    • KK for Kotoyusho, MK for Atamifuji: Tsuchinoninjin if two KK off-ballot, otherwise ryafuji
    • MK for Kotoyusho, KK for Atamifuji: Tsuchinoninjin if two KK off-ballot, otherwise Hakuryuho
    • MK for both Kotoyusho and Atamifuji: ryafuji
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