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Gurowake

Hypothetical changes to Ozumo that make some sense but will likely never happen

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1) In the past, I've talked about the possibility of the extra time on Days 13-15, caused by the lower divisions being split among 3 days instead of 2, be utilized at least in part to have more matches among those who are in contention for Juryo, having such rikishi fight all three days instead of just once.  These matches would not be considered extra ones like a typical 8th match, but an integral part of the schedule, with the same weight as previous ones.  Those that would fight all 3 days are decided on by tiers:

Tier 1 - the promotion zone (ms1-ms5) - Everyone at least 2-4 fights on Day 13.  Those at least 3-4 fight Days 14 and 15. (8 rikishi Kyushu 2021).

Tier 2 - The next 5 ranks (ms6-ms10) - Everyone at least 3-3 fights on Day 13.  Those at least 4-3 fight Days 14 and 15. (6 rikishi)

Tier 3 - The next 5 ranks (ms11-ms15) - Everyone at least 4-2 fights Day 13.  Those at least 5-2 fight Days 14 and 15 (2 rikishi)

Tier 4 - The rest of Makushita - Everyone at least 5-1 fights Day 13.  Those at least 6-1 fight Days 14 and 15.  (6 rikishi)

That's 11 extra matches for Days 14 and 15, but the entire schedule would be balanced so it's really only 7 extra each of the three days.  There clearly is time for this, as they go from around 150 lower division matches per day in the first 6 rounds to around 100 per day the last round.  If there's not an even number of rikishi, then add someone else close to the cutoff points by rank.  Whether there's an even number of rikishi also depends on the number of them needed to go up into Juryo based on the number of sekitori to be scheduled Day 14 and 15.

Those with the worst possible records despite going 2-0 the last two days, especially those near the bottom of their tier, don't have much hope of being promoted, but hopefully there are enough such people fighting these last 3 days that it should never fall down to anyone that did NOT fight all three days; obviously anyone with a KK in the normal promotion zone fought all three days.  You might be able to pare down the numbers involved in the 2nd and 3rd tiers in terms of who is likely promotable, but as noted there's plenty of time, and more matches for those with a chance at getting into the promotion zone next basho are a good thing.  It should allow for a greater likelihood of rikishi outside the normal promotion zone to have records that can be seen as good enough for promotion over those with 5-4s in that zone.  It also gives them greater flexibility of sending Juryo prospects up into Juryo.  The entirety of Makushita that goes 6-1 gets in on it as well because of the Yusho race.  There will be plenty of 6-1s around to guarantee an 8-1 Yusho at worst unless they intentionally pair it so it might end up otherwise.

The above I think I've laid out before.  What prompted me to make this thread though, was another idea I had, one that makes the previous suggestion somewhat moot, but might be used in conjunction with it. So...

2) There are 90 honbasho days per calendar year, spread out somewhat evenly in a way such that there's no off-season.   I propose moving to 4 honbasho per year, each with 23 days and 11 lower division rounds, for a total of 92 honbasho days and 44 lower division rounds per year, each 2 more than current.  Honbasho would start on the first Saturday of the month and end on the Sunday 22 days later, at latest the 29th, so you would still keep the weekend -> weekend schedule.  You could keep 2 of the regional basho at the same time and location and move the third to be in between the other two, then have the Tokyo basho be either before or after those three.  That would keep one basho at each location, most of them at the same time they are now, but have a gap of at least 5 months between, say, Aki ending at the end of September and Haru beginning in the beginning of March.  This could lead to there being one long jungyo, if those ever return, encompassing multiple months, and still have some time left over for a real off-season.

Obviously there are a lot more changes that would need to be made in order for this to make sense, and this is definitely a much larger change that affects many more things than the small previous suggestion, but it might be something worth talking about.  In neither case do I actually expect anything like these to happen, but maybe people might like discussing some hypotheticals during our time between basho.  Your own suggestions are welcome too of course, provided they make some sense.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

1) In the past, I've talked about the possibility of the extra time on Days 13-15, caused by the lower divisions being split among 3 days instead of 2, be utilized at least in part to have more matches among those who are in contention for Juryo, having such rikishi fight all three days instead of just once.  These matches would not be considered extra ones like a typical 8th match, but an integral part of the schedule, with the same weight as previous ones.  Those that would fight all 3 days are decided on by tiers:

Tier 1 - the promotion zone (ms1-ms5) - Everyone at least 2-4 fights on Day 13.  Those at least 3-4 fight Days 14 and 15. (8 rikishi Kyushu 2021).

Tier 2 - The next 5 ranks (ms6-ms10) - Everyone at least 3-3 fights on Day 13.  Those at least 4-3 fight Days 14 and 15. (6 rikishi)

Tier 3 - The next 5 ranks (ms11-ms15) - Everyone at least 4-2 fights Day 13.  Those at least 5-2 fight Days 14 and 15 (2 rikishi)

Tier 4 - The rest of Makushita - Everyone at least 5-1 fights Day 13.  Those at least 6-1 fight Days 14 and 15.  (6 rikishi)

That's 11 extra matches for Days 14 and 15, but the entire schedule would be balanced so it's really only 7 extra each of the three days.  There clearly is time for this, as they go from around 150 lower division matches per day in the first 6 rounds to around 100 per day the last round.  If there's not an even number of rikishi, then add someone else close to the cutoff points by rank.  Whether there's an even number of rikishi also depends on the number of them needed to go up into Juryo based on the number of sekitori to be scheduled Day 14 and 15.

Those with the worst possible records despite going 2-0 the last two days, especially those near the bottom of their tier, don't have much hope of being promoted, but hopefully there are enough such people fighting these last 3 days that it should never fall down to anyone that did NOT fight all three days; obviously anyone with a KK in the normal promotion zone fought all three days.  You might be able to pare down the numbers involved in the 2nd and 3rd tiers in terms of who is likely promotable, but as noted there's plenty of time, and more matches for those with a chance at getting into the promotion zone next basho are a good thing.  It should allow for a greater likelihood of rikishi outside the normal promotion zone to have records that can be seen as good enough for promotion over those with 5-4s in that zone.  It also gives them greater flexibility of sending Juryo prospects up into Juryo.  The entirety of Makushita that goes 6-1 gets in on it as well because of the Yusho race.  There will be plenty of 6-1s around to guarantee an 8-1 Yusho at worst unless they intentionally pair it so it might end up otherwise.

The above I think I've laid out before.  What prompted me to make this thread though, was another idea I had, one that makes the previous suggestion somewhat moot, but might be used in conjunction with it. So...

2) There are 90 honbasho days per calendar year, spread out somewhat evenly in a way such that there's no off-season.   I propose moving to 4 honbasho per year, each with 23 days and 11 lower division rounds, for a total of 92 honbasho days and 44 lower division rounds per year, each 2 more than current.  Honbasho would start on the first Saturday of the month and end on the Sunday 22 days later, at latest the 29th, so you would still keep the weekend -> weekend schedule.  You could keep 2 of the regional basho at the same time and location and move the third to be in between the other two, then have the Tokyo basho be either before or after those three.  That would keep one basho at each location, most of them at the same time they are now, but have a gap of at least 5 months between, say, Aki ending at the end of September and Haru beginning in the beginning of March.  This could lead to there being one long jungyo, if those ever return, encompassing multiple months, and still have some time left over for a real off-season.

Obviously there are a lot more changes that would need to be made in order for this to make sense, and this is definitely a much larger change that affects many more things than the small previous suggestion, but it might be something worth talking about.  In neither case do I actually expect anything like these to happen, but maybe people might like discussing some hypotheticals during our time between basho.  Your own suggestions are welcome too of course, provided they make some sense.

 

 

 

There's a boatload to unpack here, but I'll make a couple of comments to get the ball rolling.

1) The first idea kind of made my head hurt trying to figure out all the combinations and strategies.  I can't imagine the torikumi committee would embrace it.  They seem to have their hands full with the current procedure [I would not be surprised if they still do everything by hand, without even the help of a suporeddoshito].

2) With this idea you are suggesting the NSK reduce their main money-making venues from 6 to 4.  Also, a 23-day basho seems like a bad idea if you want to prevent injuries.  In addition, it could really kill the buzz if on day 20 the winner had the tourney already wrapped up.

Would it be possible to reduce the time between basho, and turn that time into a larger jungyo/vacation season?

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As @Yamanashi notes, fighting for 23 days would be awfully hard on rikishi, many of whom are already limping to the finish line on day 15, if they make it there at all.

And from a financial and fan perspective, giving up 2 basho in Tokyo seems like a nonstarter.

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49 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

With this idea you are suggesting the NSK reduce their main money-making venues from 6 to 4.

That's why I kept the same number of honbasho days.

 

25 minutes ago, Reonito said:

And from a financial and fan perspective, giving up 2 basho in Tokyo seems like a nonstarter. 

Yeah, perhaps they'd cut one of the regional basho before cutting the second Tokyo basho.  Also, that way would allow them to cleanly cut the one that would have to be moved so all basho end up the same months they were before.

 

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52 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Also, a 23-day basho seems like a bad idea if you want to prevent injuries.

 

27 minutes ago, Reonito said:

fighting for 23 days would be awfully hard on rikishi, many of whom are already limping to the finish line on day 15, if they make it there at all.

While I understand what you're saying, I don't think this is as big of a deal as you seem to think it is.  First, the number of honbasho days is going up only very slightly.  Second, I don't see how rikishi aren't effectively fully recovered from one day of a honbasho to the next.  The bouts aren't that long.  There's already events where people fight multiple times per day by default.  Having a full day to recover from each bout should be fine.  I don't think there's a significant amount of injuries that occur later in the tournament as opposed to earlier.  Here's even some data to support that: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query_bout.aspx?show_form=0&group_by=day&year=>1960&kimarite=74&gsort_by=day

 

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3 hours ago, Gurowake said:

 I propose moving to 4 honbasho per year

To me this is the real big issue... more tournament days might even out the number of bouts fought but economically it would be a major step backwards. As you have suggested, you would lose one regional market and one tournament in Tōkyō, which I'd imagine would damage Kokugikan profits somewhat, external leases notwithstanding.

Competitively speaking I see where you're coming from (although I fear for the health of the rikishi in the last few days) but considering the bottom line I can't see it working. One tournament every other month is a reasonable frequency for profits and for the rikishi - it has worked for 60+ years after all.

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22 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

 

While I understand what you're saying, I don't think this is as big of a deal as you seem to think it is.  First, the number of honbasho days is going up only very slightly.  Second, I don't see how rikishi aren't effectively fully recovered from one day of a honbasho to the next.  The bouts aren't that long.  There's already events where people fight multiple times per day by default.  Having a full day to recover from each bout should be fine.  I don't think there's a significant amount of injuries that occur later in the tournament as opposed to earlier.  Here's even some data to support that: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query_bout.aspx?show_form=0&group_by=day&year=>1960&kimarite=74&gsort_by=day

 

As an *extremely* amateur rikishi myself, I can say from experience this doesn't hold up. Short, high impact bouts mean high-impact injuries, and they often aren't ones you can simply recover from in a day. Battering and bruising aside, you'd be looking at tired, weaker bodies producing poorer form through to day 23, which means a greater possibility of injuries and unsatisfying spectator sumo.

Also in the spirit of correlation does not equal causation, there are likely other reasons for seeing data supporting less kyujo in later days of a basho. Off the top of my head:

  • an injured rikishi is often underperforming and needs those crucial wins for kk
  • an injured rikishi sees fighting 2-3 more times as less detrimental than 12-13 more times.

I love the idea of giving these guys more time off and an off-season, but I think extending basho by 8 days (even if they are less frequent) won't achieve the desired outcome.

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I honestly don’t buy the idea that rikishi need much of an ‘off season’. Sure, I get that there are injuries and wear and tear, but let’s face it, unless they’re Takayasu, most sekitori fight for a total of about five minutes a basho, spread across 15 days every six weeks. Rugby players in England run and (get) hit for up to 80 minutes a game, for up to 30 games a season (35 if only a sub). They get a mandatory five weeks of rest (2 of ‘absolute rest‘ and 3 of ‘active rest’) between seasons. I’m not saying sumo is crochet, but I think there’s a tendency to overstate the physical impact of a basho. I think the few hours of training they do each day is where the real fatigue and injury occurs, and that’s unlikely to stop even with reduced number of basho. Mandatory holidays are the way forward. A minimum of a week off after every basho for all sekitori; 3 days for makushita and below (because they get days off during tournaments anyway).

Edited by Eikokurai
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5 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

The first idea kind of made my head hurt trying to figure out all the combinations and strategies.  I can't imagine the torikumi committee would embrace it.  They seem to have their hands full with the current procedure

It's true that on at least one occasion they have bungled things such that a Day 13 withdraw caused them to schedule a Day 14 8th match, and they were off the hook for scheduling a second 8th match when another sekitori withdrew, but the vast majority of the time they plan things very well in terms of making sure all the bases are covered.  It would not be particularly more difficult than what they have to do now, and as mentioned it would in some ways make things easier by having more available opponents to go up into Juryo.  If you ignored everyone's record and paired straight according to rank, you'd probably still make sure there was at least one 8-1 since all the lower half of the division taking part came in 6-1.  The only complex part is counting the number of eligible rikishi and number of sekitori and making sure to set things up correctly given those numbers for Day 14 and 15, something they already do for Day 13, and to a lesser extent every other round.

As to the suggestion that more energy has been focused to by prior commenters, I'll say that a lot less thought has gone into it than the first one, which has been rattling around in my head for years.  I was more impressed by how well all the numbers seemed to work out than anything else.  When I first thought of the concept, I didn't think there would be a way to get it to work with the numbers, but it works out quite nicely.  Real life intrudes though, and I'm rather oblivious when it comes to things other than those which I can quantify, as in the query I posted.

Edited by Gurowake

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This is a good discussion.  Some of these ideas seem nuts to me, but that's OK because it lets us ponder what's really important about Sumo (to us) and what's not.

Rest assured, however, not one molecule of this will ever happen in the real Sumo.  Right now someone in the jungyo committee may be saying, "this year let's shake things up!  I think the jinku for the last stop should be ... the pachanga!" (mid-80's movie reference).

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Sumo, and Japanese in general, are about keeping the traditions. Blindly, mindlessly, without a single question. Some might say this stubborness is to the detriment of the competitiveness and the betterment of all concerned, but, hey, what do they know, these pesky troublemakers. In short, all would stay the same. 

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1 hour ago, I am the Yokozuna said:

Sumo, and Japanese in general, are about keeping the traditions. Blindly, mindlessly, without a single question. Some might say this stubborness is to the detriment of the competitiveness and the betterment of all concerned, but, hey, what do they know, these pesky troublemakers. In short, all would stay the same. 

And yet we had basho increased to 15 days from 10, and the number of rikishi in each division meddled with as recently as Hakuho's sekitori promotion. Changes to sumo aren't quite as ancient history as we often think. I agree there's a high amount of institutional inertia, and the changes we want to see aren't likely to happen soon, but never say never.

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1 hour ago, I am the Yokozuna said:

Sumo, and Japanese in general, are about keeping the traditions. Blindly, mindlessly, without a single question. Some might say this stubborness is to the detriment of the competitiveness and the betterment of all concerned, but, hey, what do they know, these pesky troublemakers. In short, all would stay the same. 

 

11 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

And yet we had basho increased to 15 days from 10, and the number of rikishi in each division meddled with as recently as Hakuho's sekitori promotion. Changes to sumo aren't quite as ancient history as we often think. I agree there's a high amount of institutional inertia, and the changes we want to see aren't likely to happen soon, but never say never.

As administrators, the Kyokai are a lot less shy about change than we credit them with. It’s only as custodians of sumo as cultural heritage where they are more conservative, hence few changes in the actual way the sport is done. In terms of admin, yes, we’ve seen the number of basho fluctuate, the number of basho days grow, division sizes change, rule changes about intra-heya and intra-ichimon bouts, revisions to kimarite lists, adaptations for television like the removal of corner posts from the dohyo and moving shimpan to the floor, etc. They won’t change the pre-bout rituals, the costumes, the quasi-religious elements, etc, but if there’s a compelling case to change the sport’s governance, why not?

Edited by Eikokurai
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Then the question is, how would you characterise Gurowake's changes? To me, they appear to be mostly administrative, because the actual "core" of sumo: the mage, the training, the heya, the rules, don't actually change. But the reaction to it appears to be "it goes too far and it'll never be done", which seems to me to fall under the response that should be to the cultural side of things.

I agree that cutting down the basho is not likely to be done, but for financial reasons rather than admin reasons. 6x15 is a more steady cash flow as opposed to 4x23, and I can see how the argument will be made that it's too big a risk to take to tinker with basho formats in that drastic a fashion. I could, however, see a possibility that maybe Natsu ends up being held somewhere in the North, maybe Sendai or Sapporo, because that makes more sense from a jungyo logistics perspective if and when jungyo resumes. 

And if they can tinker with basho days and sekitori promotions, I wouldn't rule out them implementing some improved - or at least clearer - rules for promotion. The only objection I have to Gurowake's solution is that at least as it is explained now, it seems more trouble than it is worth when the existing promotion system seems to be working well enough.

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One change I wouldn’t object to seeing is a gradual rise in the number of bouts by division, so e.g. Makushita fight 11 bouts, Sandanme 9, and only the bottom two 7. It’d better prepare them for sekitori life fighting every day, though I guess it’d open a can of worms about compensation. There’s also a lot of rikishi to schedule 11 bouts for so it may not be possible just practically speaking. One alternative could be to split the divisions so only the joi fight longer schedules, but can still be pitted against anyone from lower in the division if needed. Obviously this would mean only joi rikishi could win the yusho though, so that’s an obstacle. 

Edited by Eikokurai

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1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

One alternative could be to split the divisions so only the joi fight longer schedules, but can still be pitted against anyone from lower in the division if needed. Obviously this would mean only joi rikishi could win the yusho though, so that’s an obstacle. 

I like this the best, to be honest, because for all intents and purposes the joi and sanyaku are virtually a separate division from the rest of makuuchi for the purposes of scheduling. I don't think restricting the yusho is a problem; at least it saves the honour of the joi/sanyaku if nothing else.

Splitting makuuchi into half with 21 rikishi each, though, is cutting it a bit close for finding 14 opponents for a full basho. A few bad kyujo and/or do-beya matchups and you will have to call up opponents from the lower division, which while regularly done, defeats the point of the halving. I think I'd like to see maybe a more even spread between juryo and makuuchi - maybe 34 juryo rikishi and 36 makuuchi rikishi rather than the current 28-42. If nothing else it saves some makuuchi salaries.

1 hour ago, Kaninoyama said:

Top of my wish list: 

A video replay screen for live viewing at the Kokugikan. 

The boat on this is quite unfortunately missed, I think. It would be cheaper and faster to enable this via the NSK's official app. I was entertaining daydreams about masu-seats coming with a nice monitor for this so your party could rewatch bouts, but that'd hardly be a justifiable infrastructure expense.

Edited by Seiyashi

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42 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

One change I wouldn’t object to seeing is a gradual rise in the number of bouts by division, so e.g. Makushita fight 11 bouts, Sandanme 9, and only the bottom two 7. It’d better prepare them for sekitori life fighting every day, [...] There’s also a lot of rikishi to schedule 11 bouts for so it may not be possible just practically speaking.

To go along with your idea, I'd rather go with a 9-bouts schredule for Makushita and keep the 7-bouts schredule for lower divisions. Keeping a swiss-round like schredule would be impossible, so I'd make Makushita rikishi face their closer neighbours regardless of W-L record for the first 6 bouts, then yusho contenders start facing each others from there. I think that would be an easier to put in place than @Gurowake 's changes, while keeping it closer to nowdays basho. That would increase the number of bouts per day slightly, so that might require some timing adjustment (starting Jk ealier, or whathever).

What's I'd like to see too is 8 basho per year, which makes a basho every 6 weeks (2 weeks or rest, 2 weeks of possibly provincial tour, banzuke day then 2 weeks of preparation, 2 weeks of actual basho). 2 extra events increase income for NSK and give more sumo to fans. You can probably add a basho at the Kyokugikan and one rotation somewhere across Japan (Kobe, Kyoto, Sapporo, Hiroshima ...).

No that any of this would ever happen.

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23 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Splitting makuuchi into half with 21 rikishi each, though, is cutting it a bit close for finding 14 opponents for a full basho

Sorry, I just meant for the lower divisions. The top two work fine as they are for me.

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13 minutes ago, Oortael said:

What's I'd like to see too is 8 basho per year, which makes a basho every 6 weeks (2 weeks or rest, 2 weeks of possibly provincial tour, banzuke day then 2 weeks of preparation, 2 weeks of actual basho). 2 extra events increase income for NSK and give more sumo to fans. You can probably add a basho at the Kyokugikan and one rotation somewhere across Japan (Kobe, Kyoto, Sapporo, Hiroshima ...).

Setting aside my concerns about the feasibility of such tight scheduling, I actually wonder whether it might damage the Kyokai’s finances, since you can have too much of a good thing. People may be less inclined to rush for tickets knowing another tournament is just around the corner. Six is about right for keeping a steady flow of income while leaving enough time between tournaments for people to get withdrawal symptoms and need a fix. It may just about work if you went to Sapporo or Sendai up north where they don’t get sumo, but no more basho in Tokyo. They’ve got enough.

(Btw, there actually are about 6-7 weeks between basho, since you have to count from the end date to the start date. An eight-basho schedule would leave about a month between each one.)

Edited by Eikokurai

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29 minutes ago, Oortael said:

To go along with your idea, I'd rather go with a 9-bouts schredule for Makushita and keep the 7-bouts schredule for lower divisions. Keeping a swiss-round like schredule would be impossible, so I'd make Makushita rikishi face their closer neighbours regardless of W-L record for the first 6 bouts, then yusho contenders start facing each others from there.

Slight problem with this is that the top Ms guys would all be beating each other and it would be unlikely that any of them would get to 6-0 which is what you need to be in contention.

My suggestion for the lower divisions is that they match the top unbeaten man with the lowest ranked opponent with a similar record. That way there would be a much better chance of ending with the two best wrestlers facing off for the yusho, which seldom happens under the current system.

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4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I could, however, see a possibility that maybe Natsu ends up being held somewhere in the North, maybe Sendai or Sapporo, because that makes more sense from a jungyo logistics perspective if and when jungyo resumes. 

Now that's an idea that is within the realm of possibility.  Hokkaido and Aomori were once the stronghold of Sumo; maybe a little PR will help to reverse this trend:

Hokkaido Susshin, rikishi birthdates

1961 - 1970   107

1971 - 1980   73

1981 - 1990   42

1991 - 2000   30

[No, I don't think this is the one thing yadda yadda ... ]

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I would introduce what I’m going to call the ‘Shodai law’ to tighten up minimum required standards to retain the Ozeki rank. Alongside the current rules, Ozeki will be required to attain 10 wins at least once in a rolling 3 basho period, thus ending the ability to hang onto the Ozeki rank for years by getting an 8 win kachikoshi once every couple of basho.

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2 hours ago, Jemuzu said:

I would introduce what I’m going to call the ‘Shodai law’ to tighten up minimum required standards to retain the Ozeki rank. Alongside the current rules, Ozeki will be required to attain 10 wins at least once in a rolling 3 basho period, thus ending the ability to hang onto the Ozeki rank for years by getting an 8 win kachikoshi once every couple of basho.

I wouldn't go that far, but I would support making 8 or 9 wins not clear kadoban status.  You still need an MK to be demoted, but you don't automatically clear the first MK with 8 or 9 wins.  Of course, we're talking about making it harder to maintain Ozeki when there are so very few of them that I don't know how welcome such a change would seem.

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2 hours ago, Jemuzu said:

I would introduce what I’m going to call the ‘Shodai law’ to tighten up minimum required standards to retain the Ozeki rank.

WAIT, IS SHODAI AN OZEKI?(Detective...)

 

2 hours ago, Jemuzu said:

I would introduce what I’m going to call the ‘Shodai law’ to tighten up minimum required standards to retain the Ozeki rank. Alongside the current rules, Ozeki will be required to attain 10 wins at least once in a rolling 3 basho period, thus ending the ability to hang onto the Ozeki rank for years by getting an 8 win kachikoshi once every couple of basho.

How about double digits at least once in a calendar year?  That seems reasonable.  [Also, Mitakeumi would clear that bar:-)]

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