Promotion & Demotion & Yusho Kyushu 2021

[Reonito 1,296]

38 minutes ago, WAKATAKE said:

I’m surprised that Kagayaki is getting the talk more than Kaisei who finished 7-8 at the bottom, also four ranks below Kagayaki

3 ranks, and that's usually not enough to make up for 2 more losses.

[Kashunowaka 300]

Earlier this year a 10-5 from M2w only got Wakatakakage to M1e. Now he has gone 9-6 from M3e in Aki basho, followed by 8-7 this time. If he ends up at M1 on the next banzuke, he sure is getting his share of bad banzuke luck.

Edit: I wouldn't mind seeing Meisei dropped from Sw to M1 in favour of Wakatakakage, but I guess that is not going to happen unless we resurrect the banzuke committee from 1991-1992.

Edited November 28, 2021 by Kashunowaka

[Seiyashi 4,068]

4 minutes ago, Kashunowaka said:

Earlier this year a 10-5 from M2w only got Wakatakakage to M1e. Now he has gone 9-6 from M3e in Aki basho, followed by 8-7 this time. If he ends up at M1 on the next banzuke, he sure is getting his share of bad banzuke luck.

The solution is probably an overdemotion of Meisei, I think. It's 50/50 whether the komusubi + M1E shake out as Meisei, Daieisho, Wakatakakage, or Daieisho, Wakatakakage, Meisei in that order. Somewhat surprisingly, there have only been 7 occasions where a 7-8 S fell to M1, although Kyushu 1992's banzuke is the only one that contains two M1 with KKs. I wonder whether Daishoho's 9-6 as opposed to 8-7 for Daieisho would make any difference, but if Kyushu 1992's situation didn't exist I would have said Wakatakakage would almost certainly have been hard up.

[Hankegami 412]

51 minutes ago, Kashunowaka said:

Earlier this year a 10-5 from M2w only got Wakatakakage to M1e. Now he has gone 9-6 from M3e in Aki basho, followed by 8-7 this time. If he ends up at M1 on the next banzuke, he sure is getting his share of bad banzuke luck.

Edit: I wouldn't mind seeing Meisei dropped from Sw to M1 in favour of Wakatakakage, but I guess that is not going to happen unless we resurrect the banzuke committee from 1991-1992.

41 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

The solution is probably an overdemotion of Meisei, I think. It's 50/50 whether the komusubi + M1E shake out as Meisei, Daieisho, Wakatakakage, or Daieisho, Wakatakakage, Meisei in that order. Somewhat surprisingly, there have only been 7 occasions where a 7-8 S fell to M1, although Kyushu 1992's banzuke is the only one that contains two M1 with KKs. I wonder whether Daishoho's 9-6 as opposed to 8-7 for Daieisho would make any difference, but if Kyushu 1992's situation didn't exist I would have said Wakatakakage would almost certainly have been hard up.

I'm honestly surprised there are so many precedents for a Sekiwake > Maegashira 1 overdemotion. However, the last time it happened was 1991, and a wider research showed that in the last 30 years the most common demotion for a 7-8 Sekiwake was Komusubi. Moreover, both our M1 candidates scored just 8-7, which in my opinion hampers most incentives for promoting them to San'yaku.

IMHO, first of all Takanosho (11-4) will get Meisei's Sekiwake spot, and Meisei himself will fall to Komosubi East as usually happens in these occasions. Ichinojo (5-10) and Kiribayama (6-9) gave too poor of a result to hang on their rank (especially Ichinojo, which with a 7-8 would have had a chance to keep his status), so both Komusubi are to be replaced. Now, both Daieisho and Wakatakakage provided a modest 8-7, so their moving ups should be equally modest. Was I part of the NSK, I would make Daieisho Komusubi as the most senior (M1 East) and move Wakatakakage from M1 West to the same M1 East. Another option could be creating a Komusubi 2 East spot for Wakatakakage, but his result (and Daieisho's) aren't this high to incentive the creation of extra spots. Honestly, if one between Ichinojo and Kiribayama had provided a 7-8 I wouldn't have any of the M1 promoted.

A third option (highly unlikely in my view) is to skip all the 8-7 high Maegashira (Daieisho, Wakatakakage, Endo) and hand over the Komusubi spot to the first Maegashira with an outstanding result. This would be either M6 Tamawashi (9-6) or more properly M7 Ura (10-5 & gino-sho). M12 Hokutofuji (11-4) and M15 Abi (12-3, JY & kanto-sho) are probably too low for such a jump. Although I am an Ura fan, I believe that a 8-7 should be awarded at least a little, and moving up the M1 spots just the bare minimum is in my view the most equilibrate approach.

Edited November 28, 2021 by Hankegami
removed link not working

[bettega 422]

5 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

I’m surprised that Kagayaki is getting the talk more than Kaisei who finished 7-8 at the bottom, also four ranks below Kagayaki

Kaisei is a nicer guy

[Reonito 1,296]

So who do we think will occupy the makushita promotion zone next time? Here are the candidates:

Juryo MK: J14 Kyokushoho (6-9), J9 Kyokutaisei (2-13) ?

Ms1-Ms5 MK: Ms1e Jokoryu (3-4)

Ms1-Ms5 KK: none; all are moving up to juryo

7-0: Ms47 Ryuden

6-1: Ms14 Atamifuji, Ms19 Dewanoryu ?

5-2: Ms8e Tamashoho, Ms10e Kairyu, Ms10w Tochimaru, Ms13e Roga?

4-3: Ms6e Shimazuumi, Ms6w Takakento, Ms9w Kotodaigo ?

Seems like 9 pretty clear choices for 10 spots, with the last one going to one of the 4 guys with ? next to their names. Thoughts, @Asashosakari ?

Edited November 30, 2021 by Reonito

[Eikokurai 3,433]

4 hours ago, Kashunowaka said:

Earlier this year a 10-5 from M2w only got Wakatakakage to M1e. Now he has gone 9-6 from M3e in Aki basho, followed by 8-7 this time. If he ends up at M1 on the next banzuke, he sure is getting his share of bad banzuke luck.

Edit: I wouldn't mind seeing Meisei dropped from Sw to M1 in favour of Wakatakakage, but I guess that is not going to happen unless we resurrect the banzuke committee from 1991-1992.

Daieisho’s 13-2 yusho from M1w earned him only a third Komusubi slot back in Jan/March.

[Asashosakari 18,668]

Rounding things up here...

Day 15 (results, text-only results)

15-0 Ye Terunofuji

14-1 ---

13-2 ---

12-3 Ow Takakeisho, M15w Abi

It wasn't the prettiest sumo ever seen in a musubi no ichiban, but there's no denying that there's a certain electricity every time Terunofuji and Takakeisho meet on the dohyo. The yokozuna proceeded to take every power pushing move Takakeisho had to offer, and ultimately rallied with his own advancing action to dispatch the ozeki across the tawara. Congrats to Terunofuji on his first-ever undefeated tournament! He finishes three wins ahead of the field, the first one to do that since Hakuho in Kyushu 2019 (with a 14-1 record).

The penultimate match of the basho saw old collegiate rivals Shodai and Mitakeumi matched up, which proved an easy victory for the sekiwake. I'd say Mitakeumi is on a bonafide ozeki run now with 20 wins from his last two tournaments, and I would reckon that 12 more wins will do it, should he actually get that far for the first time in over two years. I can't imagine that 11 for a total of 31 will, not only because nobody's gotten promoted with that few in yoinks, but rather because the top end of the rankings is sufficiently depleted these days that an 11-4 record is unlikely to pass the eye test. (Just like arguably his campaign this time around was just good, not great.)

Sekiwake-to-be Takanosho tacked on an 11th win against Abi, which resulted in him earning the second kanto-sho award of his career. Abi himself was already assured of a kanto-sho of his own (his third) for his role in this tournament's yusho race. One further sansho - a gino-sho - went Ura's way as his first special prize ever, despite a final day defeat at the hands of low-ranked Chiyomaru.

Outgoing sekiwake Meisei likely secured himself a minimal demotion to komusubi for Hatsu basho after he quickly overwhelmed Ichinojo. He'll be joined by top-ranked maegashira Daieisho who clinched the last-minute kachikoshi against Ishiura to finish the basho with five straight wins. Fellow M1 Wakatakakage even went one better with 6 winning days (today against Tobizaru) to close out his tournament with an 8-7 record as well, but he will in all likelihood find himself stuck below sanyaku. I suppose an expanded sanyaku with three komusubi spots is in the realm of possibility, but that was true of the Kyushu banzuke as well and they were happy enough to go into it with just 7 sanyaku wrestlers by not promoting Daieisho's M4w 10-5 nor Wakatakakage's M3e 9-6, so it would be a bit surprising to see the chips fall differently this time around.

Komusubi Ichinojo has ended the basho with double-digit losses and will find himself as a maegashira again after two appearances in the titled ranks. Sanyaku debutant Kiribayama managed to win the internal duel by finishing 6-9 with a senshuraku win over Tamawashi, and we'll probably be seeing the 25-year-old's shikona back in large print before too long.

    15-0  Terunofuji    Y    ---
     9-6  Shodai        O    Takakeisho   12-3
    11-4  Mitakeumi     S    Meisei        7-8
(x)  5-10 Ichinojo      K    Kiribayama    6-9  (x)

(o)  8-7  Daieisho      M1   Wakatakakage  8-7  (?)
                        M2   Takanosho    11-4  (o)
                        M3
                        M4   Endo          8-7
                        M5
                        M6   Tamawashi     9-6
    10-5  Ura           M7   Chiyoshoma    8-7
                        ...
                        M12  Hokutofuji   11-4
                        ...
                        M15  Abi          12-3

At first glance I would say we're going to see all the guys now listed on the final table getting ranked at M5 and above next time, alongside Okinoumi (M3e 7-8).

__________________________________________________________________

Last-ranked maegashira Kaisei wasn't able to pull off the KK-clinching victory in his tough matchup with joi member Endo, but as detailed before 7-8 should be enough to see him hang on for Hatsu basho anyway. Kagayaki may or may not have saved himself with his last day win over Kotonowaka, meanwhile. 37-year-old veteran Shohozan, amid rumours of retirement, got to close out his potentially final top division campaign on a high note by defeating Shimanoumi.

Over in juryo both remaining candidates for promotion were successful as well, which meant kachikoshi for Bushozan and an outright promotable 11-4 record for youngster Oho. In fact, all five promotion contenders scored senshuraku victories. Wakamotoharu and Ichiyamamoto should be able to enter Hatsu basho with a bit of a ranking cushion, while Tsurugisho will likely require 7 or even 8 wins to stay.

                        M10  Asanoyama    susp. (x)
                        ...
(?)  5-10 Kagayaki      M14
                        M15
                        M16
(o)  7-8  Kaisei        M17  Shohozan      4-11 (x)

(o)  9-6  Tsurugisho    J1   Wakamotoharu 11-4  (o)
                        J2
                        J3   Bushozan      8-7  (x)
                        J4   Ichiyamamoto 13-2  (o)
                        J5
                        J6
(?) 11-4  Oho           J7

In the current banzuke-making era I'd say there's basically no chance that Bushozan will replace Kaisei, or that they'll demote Kaisei but not Kagayaki, so I'm calling the Brazilian veteran safe. I'd probably be saying that even if the next banzuke ended at just M17e rather than the current M17w or the M18e we're likely to get for next time.

Kagayaki versus Oho, on the other hand - it's true that Kagayaki is eminently demotable and Oho has done enough to merit consideration for promotion by the numbers, but this still feels like a complete 50/50 decision to me, given Oho's age and relative lack of track record. That's actually kind of true even for this basho - en route to his 11 wins he didn't beat a single rikishi who finished the basho better than 8-7: He lost to all three guys who are set to be promoted as well as to Kotokuzan (11-4), and faced none of Asanowaka (10-5), Azumaryu (9-6) and Tohakuryu (9-6). Time to wait and see.

The juryo yusho race ended up thusly:

13-2 J4w Ichiyamamoto

12-3 ---

11-4 J1w Wakamotoharu, J7e Oho, J14w Kotokuzan

Ichiyamamoto didn't even need the 13th shiroboshi over Daishoho after his sole remaining pursuer Kotokuzan had lost his do-or-die match against Nishikigi a few minutes earlier.

In any case, four guys at 11-4 or better ranks among the stronger top of the line juryo performances ever - I'd tell you exactly how strong, but the DB has been offline all day and unlike rikishi career records that's not something I can just fish out of Google's vast cache of the internet.

__________________________________________________________________

The situation in low juryo and high makushita cleared itself up in very straight-forward fashion in the end. Kyokushuho lost to visiting Kitanowaka and thus assured himself of a trip to the unpaid ranks of sumo alongside stablemate Kyokutaisei, opening up the last required bit of space for the four promotion contenders. Yago proceeded to defeat Kotoyusho in the next match to give himself a shot at survival, and his success became all but certain when Fukai was unable to clinch his kachikoshi against Churanoumi later on, leaving the hoshitori without any obvious or even non-obvious fifth candidate to replace Yago now.

                        J9   Kyokutaisei   2-13 (x)
(o)  5-10 Yago          J10
                        J11
                        J12  Hokuseiho   0-2-13 (x)
                        J13
(x)  6-9  Kyokushuho    J14

                        Ms1  Kotoyusho     4-3  (o)
                        Ms2  Shiba         5-2  (o)
(o)  5-2  Kitanowaka    Ms3
(o)  5-2  Chiyoarashi   Ms4  Fukai         3-4  (x)
                        Ms5

On the back of five consecutive makekoshi (all 6-9's) for Kyokushuho, it's the end of the longest ongoing presence in the juryo division after 27 tournaments - and 9 uninterrupted years as sekitori altogether - and I'm not all that sure that we're going to see the 33-year-old back here again. (33 years?! Feels like only yesterday that he was heralded as the next big thing to come out of Mongolia...) His best bet for at least one more juryo appearance is probably via immediate bounceback in January, where it should take just 4 wins as he is very likely to be ranked as Ms1e. If he starts dropping in makushita, I don't really see a way back. Kyokutaisei is also no spring chicken at 32, but he was still perfectly competitive in juryo until his injury woes of the last two tournaments, so depending on how his recovery goes he may have a much better shot at getting some more paychecks.

Hokuseiho will of course be back for sure, barring catastrophic injury, but he'll drop low enough after his zero-win outing that it'll take a 7-0 in January to stage an immediate return.

And in final news, senshuraku also saw the decision for the jonidan title, where 20-year-old Yurikisho did come through against his bigger and older aite Kaiho, largely as a result of a mighty disorienting harite directly followed by a (possibly not quite intentional) hand in the face. Ouch.

I've probably forgotten something I meant to write about, but let's leave it at this. Until next time!

Edited November 30, 2021 by Asashosakari

[Reonito 1,296]

10 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Tsurugisho will likely require 7 or even 8 wins to stay.

I know I tend to overestimate where the juryo guys end up, but it seems like 9-6 at J1e should leave him with a bit of a cushion, no?

[Asashosakari 18,668]

1 minute ago, Reonito said:

I know I tend to overestimate where the juryo guys end up, but it seems like 9-6 at J1e should leave him with a bit of a cushion, no?

I've got him provisionally pencilled in at M17e, though even if that's off I don't think he'll go high enough that 6-9 would be a staying record.

A quick attempt at the next juryo and makushita-joi banzuke:

Oho (J7e 11-4)           J1   Bushozan (J3w 8-7)
Nishikigi (J5w 8-7)      J2   Kotoshoho (J6e 8-7)
Daiamami (J2e 6-9)       J3   Shohozan (M17w 4-11)
Kotokuzan (J14w 11-4)    J4   Azumaryu (J10w 9-6)
Asanowaka (J13e 10-5)    J5   Kaisho (J2w 5-10)
Asanoyama (M10w 0-0-15)  J6   Mitoryu (J9e 8-7)
Daishomaru (J3e 5-10)    J7   Tohakuryu (J12e 9-6)
Daishoho (J7w 7-8)       J8   Nishikifuji (J4e 5-10)
Midorifuji (J8e 7-8)     J9   Churanoumi (J8w 7-8)
Tokushoryu (J6w 6-9)     J10  Enho (J11e 8-7)
Hakuyozan (J11w 8-7)     J11  Chiyonoo (J5e 4-11)
Shiba (Ms2w 5-2)         J12  Kitanowaka (Ms3e 5-2)
Kotoyusho (Ms1w 4-3)     J13  Chiyoarashi (Ms4e 5-2)
Hiradoumi (J13w 7-7-1)   J14  Yago (J10e 5-10)

Like Gurowake, I'm afraid that Enho and Hakuyozan will probably not enjoy their promotions all that much.

Kyokushuho (J14e 6-9)    Ms1  Tamashoho (Ms8e 5-2)
Shimazuumi (Ms6e 4-3)    Ms2  Takakento (Ms6w 4-3)
Jokoryu (Ms1e 3-4)       Ms3  Atamifuji (Ms14w 6-1)
Kairyu (Ms10e 5-2)       Ms4  Tochimaru (Ms10w 5-2)
Kyokutaisei (J9w 2-13)   Ms5  Ryuden (Ms47w 7-0 Y)
Dewanoryu (Ms19e 6-1)    Ms6  Roga (Ms13e 5-2)
Kotodaigo (Ms9w 4-3)     Ms7  Hokaho (Ms3w 3-4)
Tsushimanada (Ms2e 3-5)  Ms8  Fukai (Ms4w 3-4)
Kotoozutsu (Ms11e 4-3)   Ms9  Asabenkei (Ms5w 3-4)
Mineyaiba (Ms16e 5-2)    Ms10 Tsukahara (Ms17e 5-2)
Kanno (Ms13w 4-3)        Ms11 Oshoryu (Ms30e 6-1)
Hokuseiho (J12w 0-2-13)  Ms12 Oshoma (Ms15Td 4-3)
Chiyonoumi (Ms33e 6-1)   Ms13 Asagyokusei (Ms7e 3-4)
Chiyosakae (Ms23e 5-2)   Ms14 Kamito (Ms18e 4-3)
Shonannoumi (Ms5e 2-5)   Ms15 Kitaharima (Ms9e 3-4)
Tomokaze (Ms37e 6-1)     Ms16 Tochikodai (Ms20e 4-3)

Could go either way between top 5 / not top 5 for Ryuden, as well as top 15 / not top 15 for Tomokaze, IMHO. 

[Katooshu 3,082]

I am rooting for Kagayaki - give him the chance to make history in makuuchi!

Edited November 30, 2021 by Katooshu

[Rocks 1,804]

GTB seems deceptively easy this time around. Either I am way off, which would not be surprising, or it's going to be a very high scoring game this time. 

[Rocks 1,804]

17 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Kagayaki versus Oho, on the other hand - it's true that Kagayaki is eminently demotable and Oho has done enough to merit consideration for promotion by the numbers, but this still feels like a complete 50/50 decision to me, given Oho's age and relative lack of track record. That's actually kind of true even for this basho - en route to his 11 wins he didn't beat a single rikishi who finished the basho better than 8-7: He lost to all three guys who are set to be promoted as well as to Kotokuzan (11-4), and faced none of Asanowaka (10-5), Azumaryu (9-6) and Tohakuryu (9-6). Time to wait and see.

This is a tough one. Kagayaki usually gets pretty soft demotions. If Kagayaki had gotten a KK recently I would say he stays for sure. But since he has gone a whole year without one maybe they'll figure a drop to Juryo is just the kick in the ass he needs to get going again.

Edited November 30, 2021 by Rocks

[Ack! 424]

2 hours ago, Rocks said:

GTB seems deceptively easy this time around. Either I am way off, which would not be surprising, or it's going to be a very high scoring game this time. 

M9 to M11 seems messy and a lot of arbitrary placements could happen, but otherwise I agree.

[Ack! 424]

This has the feel of an ongoing changing of the guard.  Akiseyama dropped from Makuuchi to Makushita and Hakuho retired.  Tokushoryu was demoted to Juryo for Kyushu and continues his downward slide.  Shohozan will return to Juryo next basho, and the bottom of Makuuchi (i.e. the demotion zone) will be occupied by older rikishi such as Kaisei, Tochinoshin, Aoiyama and Myogiru.

Edited November 30, 2021 by Ack!

[Reonito 1,296]

42 minutes ago, Ack! said:

M9 to M11 seems messy and a lot of arbitrary placements could happen, but otherwise I agree.

Myogiryu is probably the biggest banana peel on this banzuke.

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,244]

1 hour ago, Ack! said:

This has the feel of an ongoing changing of the guard.  Akiseyama dropped from Makuuchi to Makushita and Hakuho retired.  Tokushoryu was demoted to Juryo for Kyushu and continues his downward slide.  Shohozan will return to Juryo next basho, and the bottom of Makuuchi (i.e. the demotion zone) will be occupied by older rikishi such as Kaisei, Tochinoshin, Aoiyama and Myogiru.

This assumes of course that Akiseyama was guarding anything in the first place!

[Rocks 1,804]

On 10/12/2021 at 16:55, Totorofuji said:

Grand Sumo Breakdown banzuke prediction: podcast and table

Interesting. Fairly different from mine. He can mock me when I'm wrong but I don't see Endo ahead of Tamawashi. 

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,244]

On 14/12/2021 at 00:13, Rocks said:

Interesting. Fairly different from mine. He can mock me when I'm wrong but I don't see Endo ahead of Tamawashi. 

Endo had a full joi schedule and Tamawashi didn't.

[Rocks 1,804]

15 hours ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

Endo had a full joi schedule and Tamawashi didn't.

Tamawashi faced 3 Sanyaku to Endo's 5. He also faced Abi, Endo didn't. He also beat Endo. He has 1 more win also while Endo needed a win against M17E Kaisei on Day 15 just to get his KK. By the numbers Tamawashi should be ahead of Endo.

[Yamanashi 3,687]

2 hours ago, Rocks said:

Tamawashi faced 3 Sanyaku to Endo's 5. He also faced Abi, Endo didn't. He also beat Endo. He has 1 more win also while Endo needed a win against M17E Kaisei on Day 15 just to get his KK. By the numbers Tamawashi should be ahead of Endo.

Both arguments have merits.  At the end of the day, Endo would have a very slight edge (historically).  Which means, of course, that something random will determine the final ranking.

[Reonito 1,296]

6 hours ago, Rocks said:

Tamawashi faced 3 Sanyaku to Endo's 5. He also faced Abi, Endo didn't. He also beat Endo. He has 1 more win also while Endo needed a win against M17E Kaisei on Day 15 just to get his KK. By the numbers Tamawashi should be ahead of Endo.

"By the numbers" they are exactly tied: Tamawashi has 1 more win from 2 ranks lower, with both on the west side. Whether higher rank or more wins takes precedence in such cases depends on which part of the banzuke the two rikishi occupy.

[Rocks 1,804]

On 16/12/2021 at 20:53, Reonito said:

"By the numbers" they are exactly tied: Tamawashi has 1 more win from 2 ranks lower, with both on the west side. Whether higher rank or more wins takes precedence in such cases depends on which part of the banzuke the two rikishi occupy.

It's usually more wins. I still don't know why so many had Endo ahead of Tamawashi. 9 over 8 is the safe bet. 

[Reonito 1,296]

Just now, Rocks said:

It's usually more wins. I still don't know why so many had Endo ahead of Tamawashi. 9 over 8 is the safe bet. 

In the upper maegashira, it's usually rank, while lower down it tends to be wins, but it can obviously go either way.