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Promotion & Demotion & Yusho Kyushu 2021

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During the broadcast yesterday I think, it was mentioned that Chiyoarashi's 5-2 from ms4e was enough for promotion, which I guess would work in the following scenario:

Hokuseihō, Kyokutaisei, Kyokushūhō go down, with an extra salaried space vacated by Hakuhō
Kotoyūshō, Shiba, Kitanowaka, Chiyoarashi go up

Relevant bouts tomorrow are Kitanowaka vs Kyokushūhō, and Yago vs Kotoyūshō, but considering the above, neither bout will have an impact on promotion/demotion, just on which position each competitor ends up on the next banzuke.

However if Yago finishes 4-11 from j10e, surely he'd be eligible for demotion. In which case, the next best candidate for promotion would be 4w Fukai if he wins tomorrow, or 6e Shimazuumi, but a 4-3 from all the way down there seems like a reach, so maybe Yago would be safe.

Edited by rokudenashi

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11 minutes ago, rokudenashi said:

6e Shimazuumi, but a 4-3 from all the way down there seems like a reach, so maybe Yago would be safe. 

Sure, looking at the last time people outside the promotion zone got in due to lack of other candidates (Hatsu 2018), the Juryo demotees were much deeper than what we'd see with Yago after he loses.  None of them had any chance at surviving so they had to go deep for candidates, while Yago is at least close enough to surviving that a 4-3 6e doesn't seem great to replace him.  Kyokushuho, having less space to drop, seems less likely to keep with the same rank/record placement number as Yago, but there's already a good replacement for him if he loses.

Edited by Gurowake

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If Yago survives with a 4-11 record, he'll be the first since Juryo contracted to something like its current size. Amusingly, the last two instances of a J10 getting demoted with a 4-11 record both featured none other than:

Spoiler

Yago

 

Edited by Reonito
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1 hour ago, Reonito said:

If Yago survives with a 4-11 record, he'll be the first since Juryo contracted to something like its current size. Amusingly, the last two instances of a J10 getting demoted with a 4-11 record both featured none other than:

  Hide contents

Yago

 

How did Farquaad-sama get on the Banzuke Committee?

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There's been some speculation that Shohozan might retire, which could open up a spot in Juryo.

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23 minutes ago, Reonito said:

There's been some speculation that Shohozan might retire, which could open up a spot in Juryo.

In order for that to happen, Nishonoseki would have to retire a month and a half early.  It might happen, but before the banzuke meeting?  Probably not.  He would likely miss at least one paycheck (I don't know how often they're paid).

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J4W Ichiyamamoto vs J7W Daishoho is the final TORCH MATCH of 2021.  Should the J4W holder win, it may be the highest the TORCH has ever finished (from the bottom of the banzuke in January, to the last match in November).

Thanks to all who contribute to this thread.

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Day 14 (results, text-only results)

14-0 Ye Terunofuji

13-1 ---

12-2 Ow Takakeisho, M15w Abi

Challenger Abi gave it his best shot and actually had the yokozuna on the brink of losing for a fleeting moment, but in the end things went like they had for all of the previous thirteen days. It's Terunofuji's sixth overall yusho and the fourth this year, firmly cementing himself as the central figure of sumo for 2021. (The most recent rikishi to win four or more yusho in a calendar year was Hakuho back in 2014.) And of course as has been variously mentioned Terunofuji is now the first yokozuna in almost 60 years to win his first two tournaments upon debuting at sumo's highest rank.

Day 14 also saw the two ozeki matched up, with Takakeisho prevailing clearly over Shodai. He now has an opportunity to secure a 13-win record if he can defeat the yokozuna tomorrow, although it doesn't really feel like much of an equivalent record with the yusho decided a day early and Takakeisho himself having been two wins behind after Day 13, and so I'm not sure if there's going to be much or even any tsunatori talk. Today's win does ensure that he will be featuring as the highest-ranked ozeki on the Hatsu 2022 banzuke, for the first time in a year.

Sekiwake Mitakeumi has achieved double-digit wins as sekiwake for the first time since Nagoya 2020, courtesy of a victory over his personal punching bag Tamawashi. 9+10 is arguably the bare minimum he has needed to have a shot at promotion to ozeki after the next tournament, but another win will definitely come in handy. I suspect the powers that be will be inclined to downplay it before Hatsu in any case, as pressure and Mitakeumi certainly don't seem to mix well.

The other sekiwake Meisei kept up his chances to stay in sanyaku with a defeat of Ura, having anticipated his aite's tactics well. Takanosho should now be the certain new West Sekiwake with 10 wins of his own, while the two top maegashira Daieisho and Wakatakakage have worked their way up to 7-7 apiece on the back 4 and 5 day winning streaks and into contention for the second and maybe third open lower sanyaku slot. Should they fail to claim as many as will be available, it'll be up to Endo, Tamawashi and Ura to provide more komusubi for January.

    14-0  Terunofuji    Y    ---
     9-5  Shodai        O    Takakeisho   12-2
    10-4  Mitakeumi     S    Meisei        6-8
(x)  5-9  Ichinojo      K    Kiribayama    5-9  (x)

     7-7  Daieisho      M1   Wakatakakage  7-7
                        M2   Takanosho    10-4  (o)
(x)  6-8  Okinoumi      M3
                        M4   Endo          7-7
                        M5
                        M6   Tamawashi     9-5
    10-4  Ura           M7
                        ...
                        M15  Abi          12-2

Most sanyaku contenders will have to deal with 7-7 opponents on senshuraku, with the following matches having been set: Daieisho vs M12e Ishiura, Wakatakakage vs M8w Tobizaru, Endo vs M17e Kaisei, and Ura vs M15e Chiyomaru. Other pairings will see Meisei against Ichinojo as part of the sanyaku soroibumi trio of matches, and Tamawashi going up against Kiribayama.

Deviating from strictly hierarchical matchmaking, yokozuna Terunofuji's final challenger will be Takakeisho, while Shodai will meet Mitakeumi.

__________________________________________________________________

Having already been all but certain to stay in the top division, Tochinoshin and Chiyomaru made entirely sure of it today with another win each. Kaisei was also successful and should have enough wiggle room to stay as well, even if he misses out on his kachikoshi tomorrow. Kagayaki finally ended a 7-day losing streak to retain a sliver of hope.

In any case the three definitely available promotion slots are now claimed after Tsurugisho earned his KK at Enho's expense, running their personal head-to-head record to 6-0. What remains to be seen is if there's going to be a fourth exchange - should Kagayaki drop to 4-11 he will almost certainly be replaced by either Oho or Bushozan, while a 5-10 finish would make it much less clear, even if Oho wins tomorrow to close with a by-the-numbers good enough score. Both Oho and Bushozan were victorious on Day 14, defeating Hiradoumi and Kotoshoho respectively.

                        M10  Asanoyama    susp. (x)
                        M11
                        M12
                        M13  Tochinoshin  6-5-3 (o)
(~)  4-10 Kagayaki      M14
(o)  7-7  Chiyomaru     M15
                        M16
(1)  7-7  Kaisei        M17  Shohozan      3-11 (x)

(o)  8-6  Tsurugisho    J1   Wakamotoharu 10-4  (o)
                        J2
                        J3   Bushozan      7-7  (~)
                        J4   Ichiyamamoto 12-2  (o)
                        J5
(x)  8-6  Kotoshoho     J6
(1) 10-4  Oho           J7

Kagayaki's last chance will come against Kotonowaka (M11e 6-8). Down in juryo it's Bushozan against a fellow 7-7'er, J8e Midorifuji, while Oho gets a superficially easy matchup with Chiyonoo (J5e 4-10). (Of course I thought that Chiyonoo would be an easy matchup for 8-5 Tohakuryu today as well, and that didn't quite turn out that way...)

Kotoshoho and Bushozan will meet on Day 14 to eliminate one more promotion contender, while Tsurugisho will try to secure his KK against Enho.

__________________________________________________________________

The banzuke makers are getting spoiled for choice when it comes to freeing up spots in juryo on Wednesday, after both Yago and Kyokushuho dropped to demotable loss totals today. Kyokutaisei's tiny last bit of hope also evaporated in a one-sided loss to Tokushoryu.

Yago's defeat came at the hands of visiting makushitan Shiba, who has capped off his prior achievement - securing his first ever KK in the promotion zone in his 6th attempt - by now making sure of his juryo debut as well. December 24th will be an auspicious day for him, as not only is it the banzuke release day that will officially see him ranked as sekitori for the first time, he's also turning 30 years old that day.

The only other makushita contender in action was Asabenkei, who was however defeated by Shimazuumi and has finished his Kyushu campaign with makekoshi.

                        J9   Kyokutaisei   2-12 (x)
(~)  4-10 Yago          J10
                        J11
                        J12  Hokuseiho   0-2-12 (x)
                        J13
(~)  6-8  Kyokushuho    J14

                        Ms1  Kotoyusho     4-2  (o)
                        Ms2  Shiba         5-2  (o)
     4-2  Kitanowaka    Ms3
     5-2  Chiyoarashi   Ms4  Fukai         3-3
                        Ms5  Asabenkei     3-4  (x)

All three remaining promotion zoners are getting sent up to juryo for senshuraku, and because rookie Hiradoumi was injured in his loss to Oho and has had to withdraw, an extra warm body had to be found to fill out the schedule. Tsushimanada (Ms2e 2-5) has gotten the customary call as the highest-ranked rikishi who has already finished his regular seven bouts and scored fewer than three wins in them, giving him an opportunity to be treated slightly better on the next banzuke should he win. On a trivia note, it will be the first time in just over 10 years that any basho day will see 4 makushita rikishi competing in juryo.

Both Kyokushuho and Yago will be part of the visitor bonanza, with Kyokushuho facing Kitanowaka and Yago going against Kotoyusho. They seem to have struggled to source somebody as Fukai's opponent as they've had to reach all the way up to Churanoumi (J8w 6-8) for it. Tsushimanada for his part will meet Kyokutaisei, unsurprisingly.

Either Kitanowaka or Chiyoarashi will join Kotoyusho and Shiba on the way up for sure, while it's at least conceivable that both Yago and Kyokushuho could stay with a senshuraku win, with Ms3e 4-3 and Ms4e 5-2 not really in the "must promote" realm. A loss by either juryo rikishi will surely see four promotions getting parcelled out, with probably Fukai getting in on the action as well if both lose and he wins. (Come to think of it, why isn't he facing Yago, rather than Kotoyusho?) I have no idea what's going to happen if all three of them are defeated.

__________________________________________________________________

Juryo yusho race through Day 14:

12-2 J4w Ichiyamamoto

11-3 J14w Kotokuzan

10-4 J1w Wakamotoharu, J7e Oho

It's a two-horse race after both the leader and his sole one-behind pursuer were successful today, eliminating the two-behinds but keeping the race open for senshuraku.

Up for Day 15:

J7w  Daishoho (7-7)    -  J4w  Ichiyamamoto (12-2)

J14w Kotokuzan (11-3)  -  J5w  Nishikigi (7-7)

Perfectly cromulent choices of opponents here, given the relative lack of options still available. Kotokuzan is going first, so he'll definitely still be in the running at the time of the match.

Edited by Asashosakari
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37 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Perfectly cromulent choices of opponents here, given the relative lack of options still available.

Trivia Bit: The fifth use of this phrase by @Asashosakari in a post on the SF.  No one else even registers (well, until now).  My question: is it possible to have choices that are cromulent but not perfectly cromulent?

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3 hours ago, shimodahito said:

J4W Ichiyamamoto vs J7W Daishoho is the final TORCH MATCH of 2021.  Should the J4W holder win, it may be the highest the TORCH has ever finished (from the bottom of the banzuke in January, to the last match in November).

And he'll likely carry that torch all the way into Makuuchi on Christmas Eve, just in time for the lighting of the new torch.

Edited by Sue
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2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

[TK] now has an opportunity to secure a 13-win record if he can defeat the yokozuna tomorrow, although it doesn't really feel like much of an equivalent record with the yusho decided a day early and Takakeisho himself having been two wins behind after Day 13, and so I'm not sure if there's going to be much or even any tsunatori talk.

Wasn't there a thread fairly recently ("recently" as in "during TnoF's tsuna run") analyzing proposed tsuna runs, and didn't that thread conclude that J->Y and D->Y tended to yield favourable results? He'd need to Y outright, but a Takakeisho yusho in January might merit at least a thought in that direction, especially if it's a 13-2 J and not a 12-3 J that starts it.

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2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

                        M10  Asanoyama    susp. (x)
                        M11
                        M12
                        M13  Tochinoshin  6-5-3 (o)
(~)  4-10 Kagayaki      M14
(o)  7-7  Chiyomaru     M15
                        M16
(1)  7-7  Kaisei        M17  Shohozan      3-11 (x)

If Kagayaki survives and Shohozan retires, that'll be two intai and one suspension opening up the three promotion slots in Makuuchi, and nobody going down on the strength of their own record. How often does that happen? (And who gets the extra open slot in Juryo?)

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2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

[P]ressure and Mitakeumi certainly don't seem to mix well.

Deviating from strictly hierarchical matchmaking... Shodai will meet Mitakeumi.

Clearly, the title of "Next Ozeki" will be at stake in that match. I can't quite figure out whether it goes to the winner, though, or to the loser.

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1 hour ago, Yamanashi said:

Trivia Bit: The fifth use of this phrase by @Asashosakari in a post on the SF.  No one else even registers (well, until now).  My question: is it possible to have choices that are cromulent but not perfectly cromulent?

Hesitating to respond and send this thread off topic, but yes, absolutely possible. Using cromulent in the sense of being apt, perfectly acts as an intensifier or verifier. Should one doubt that the torikumi construction was cromulent, 'perfectly' embiggens its appropriateness. Compare with reasonable and perfectly reasonable or absolutely possible.

Nevertheless, 'perfectly cromulent' as used by @Asashosakari is becoming an idiom.

(Punkrocker...)

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I have a feeling that, despite the horrible performance, they will keep Kagayaki in Makuuchi. There is now rhyme nor reason to it, just gut feeling and the anecdotal observation over the last few years that there is a tendency to underpromote. 

Edited by Thorbjarn

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On NHK they were not sure if Bushozan or Oho should be promoted with 4 spots available, both are without makuuchi experience, but Oho should be it. I don't think the shimpan will drop Kaisei for Bushozan, at times they certainly would have, but recently they act even less predictable than usual.

Edited by Akinomaki

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18 hours ago, rokudenashi said:

During the broadcast yesterday I think, it was mentioned that Chiyoarashi's 5-2 from ms4e was enough for promotion, which I guess would work in the following scenario:
(...)

Nice words, but I believe they will somehow save Yago at the expense of Chiyoarashi. Well, we'll see.

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5 hours ago, Sue said:

If Kagayaki survives and Shohozan retires, that'll be two intai and one suspension opening up the three promotion slots in Makuuchi, and nobody going down on the strength of their own record. How often does that happen? (And who gets the extra open slot in Juryo?)

Technically Asanoyama is going down on the strength of his own record, which is a 0-0-15. As far as suspensions are concerned, since we can count them on one hand, I don't think the answer to your question involves a suspension at all. The baseball suspensions in Nagoya 2010 involved Tamaasuka and Shotenro falling out of makuuchi with twin 5-10s from M16 (the last position), so it definitely wasn't then.

However, the mass retirements in the wake of the yaocho scandal did result in no demotions from both makuuchi and juryo for the Natsu 2011 Technical Examination basho. In fact, they even promoted 3-4 Kakizoe and Arawashi from makushita to fill the juryo gaps, and Kimurayama with 7-8 from M17e went up to M15w the next basho.

Unfortunately, the DB has gone 404 on me right now, so the research is going to have to take a hiatus.

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While I can see an argument for keeping Kagayaki over Oho, Oho is promotable by the numbers and Kagayaki is demotable by the numbers, and is more than minimally demotable.  Kaisei is minimally demotable (and not demotable if you look at the next banzuke) and Bushozan is not promotable by the numbers, so I don't see that exchange happening.

The promotions from Makushita work out nicely in the sense that Yago ended up winning and there's no one remotely available to take his place due to Fukai's loss, while Kyokushuho lost to Kitanowaka and is clearly demotable so Chiyoarashi (and Kitanowaka) should get in.

There's a big hole to fill in Juryo which will lead to some big promotions for most of the KK rikishi.  The big exceptions will likely be Enho and Hakuyozan, who might end up with minimum promotions due to how crowded the bottom half of the division is, unless they overdemote Tokushoryu or Churanoumi.  That's a striking contrast to Azumaryu who I have going up 5.5 ranks with a 9-6; Kotokuzan looking to go up 10 ranks with an 11-4; Mitoryu, Kotoshoho and Nishikigi looking to go up 3.5 ranks with 8-7s; and Asanowaka looking to get 7 ranks for his 10-5.

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I would be surprised if they promote Bushozan with a 8-7 score as J#3 West. But, if @Totorofuji is right and the NSK wants some promising first-timers to go up, they will hardly keep Kagayaki when their first choices for an extra spot are two young rikishi both fitting the bill. To this extent, Oho with its 11-4 fits the bill better, not to mention him being Taiho's grandson will unavoidably attract some extra attention for Hatsu 2022.

All considered, I believe they will demote Shohozan and Kagayaki (alongside with Asanoyama) to Juryo, and "demote" Kaisei to M18 East, the last Maakuchi spot for Hatsu 2022 if I did my maths right. Their spots (more the extra Hakuho spot) will be therefore filled by Tsurugisho (9-6 as J#1 East), Wakamotoharu (11-4 as J#1 West), Ichiyamamoto (Juryo yusho as J#4 West) and Oho (11-4 as J#7 East). Granted, if they REALLY want to bring some more young blood they can also take Bushozan for Kaisei, but it would be somehow unfair to J#5 West Nishikigi (8-7) and J#6 East Kotoshoho (8-7). On the other hand, Oho's 11-4 is more presentable in my opinion, not to mention Kaisei did a "respectable" 7-8 MK and not a total disaster like Kagayaki and Shohozan.

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2 hours ago, Hankegami said:

I believe they will demote Shohozan and Kagayaki (alongside with Asanoyama) to Juryo, and "demote" Kaisei to M18 East, the last Maakuchi spot for Hatsu 2022 if I did my maths right. Their spots (more the extra Hakuho spot) will be therefore filled by Tsurugisho (9-6 as J#1 East), Wakamotoharu (11-4 as J#1 West), Ichiyamamoto (Juryo yusho as J#4 West) and Oho (11-4 as J#7 East).

That's exactly how I have it. On my reading of the "numbers" I can't see Bushozan being placed ahead of Kagayaki, let alone Kaisei. With one more win he would have leapfrogged both of them: now there's a mental image for you.

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28 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

That's exactly how I have it. On my reading of the "numbers" I can't see Bushozan being placed ahead of Kagayaki, let alone Kaisei. With one more win he would have leapfrogged both of them: now there's a mental image for you.

I admit that my knowledge with banzuke proceedings is limited, but I consider a 8-7 as a "do your homework" KK. From 9 wins onwards a rikishi is clearly starting to move his sumo longbottom appreciably, although the "good boy" status goes better from 10 wins onwards. I believe it's as much as your reading goes too. I expect an 8-7 J#3 to be made J#1 East, especially since a prospectively promoted J#1 Tsurugisho  managed a 9-6.

(I admit that imagining any rikishi leapfrogging anything took a tool on my sense of balance)

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I’m surprised that Kagayaki is getting the talk more than Kaisei who finished 7-8 at the bottom, also four ranks below Kagayaki

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4 minutes ago, WAKATAKE said:

I’m surprised that Kagayaki is getting the talk more than Kaisei who finished 7-8 at the bottom, also four ranks below Kagayaki

That's about numbers. M14 East Kagayaki with 5-10 gives a much worse impression than M17 East Kaisei with 7-8. Different levels of MK. If the bottom rank for Hatsu 2022 would have been M17 Kaisei would have been probably demoted, but will be M18. This situation can allow Kaisei to lose a rank (17>18) without falling down to Juryo, while Kagayaki's very poor performance requires a harsher treatment. Of course, Kagayaki could be simply put at M17 and Oho left in Juryo, but part of the discussion concerns the NSK wanting more "new blood" in Maakuchi. Trading Oho for Kaisei instead of Kagayaki would give the impression that a 5-10 is not this critical of a MK.

Moreover, Kaisei has a better record than Kagayaki overall. Kaisei's last KK was in Natsu 2021 (preceded by another in Haru 2021), while Kagayaki has been MK for 7 bouts straight, its last KK being in Aki 2020 (8-7). Their difference in position is that Kagayaki started his losing strike as M3, while Kaisei has always been part of the lower Maegashira ranks since his return from Juryo in Hatsu 2020. Not to mention that Kaisei never scored a 5-10 or worse, while for Kagayaki is the second time since he began being regularly MK.

But of course you may be right and the NSK will look at their ranks first. My argument is that at least Kaisei showed room for improvement (a 7-8 is just a win away from KK), while Kagayaki is in a free fall.

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