Hatsu 2022 discussions (results)

[Yamanashi 3,687]

5 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

12 is enough for me, but even with a good 11 they might have a chat. As I’ve argued before, if there’s a need for an Ozeki (and let’s be honest, there is) they could easily interpret his long tenure in sanyaku the way they took Kisenosato’s consistent performance at Ozeki as a sort of yusho equivalent. Mitakeumi’s shown he can hold his own at the top end of the banzuke fighting an Ozeki schedule, so it’s not like he’s an unknown quantity. 9-6, 11-4, 11-4 plus about five years of K/S appearances behind him makes a case, doesn’t it? I expect they’d ask for one more go, but I wouldn’t question a promotion on the strength of that myself.

Well, he's been in Sanyaku for 10 straight basho, and averaged 9.0 wins over the last nine.  With 9-6, 11-4 in the last two basho, he'd need 13 wins to nail it, IMHO.  12?  I dunno.

[Reonito 1,296]

12 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Well, he's been in Sanyaku for 10 straight basho, and averaged 9.0 wins over the last nine.  With 9-6, 11-4 in the last two basho, he'd need 13 wins to nail it, IMHO.  12?  I dunno.

With 12, it could well depend on to whom those losses are, when they happen, and the "quality of the sumo." 

[Reonito 1,296]

2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

If there are enough more compelling Juryo demotees and not enough viable Makushita promotees, it's within the realm of possibility that someone with an absence at Asanoyama's rank manages to stay in Juryo.

Given that they've been willing to go down as far as Ms11 for promotees (who didn't go 7-0) when really necessary, I don't think that's really an issue.

[WAKATAKE 2,614]

Kisenosato and Goeido both had 32 wins on their way to ozeki.

Kise —> 10-12-10

Goeido —> 12-8-12

If Mita beats both Shodai and Teru, I think he’s in

[Godango 956]

30 minutes ago, WAKATAKE said:

Kisenosato and Goeido both had 32 wins on their way to ozeki.

Kise —> 10-12-10

Goeido —> 12-8-12

If Mita beats both Shodai and Teru, I think he’s in

Even more recently we had:

• Shodai --> 8-11-13Y
• Asanoyama --> 11-10-11

Given the perceived disappointment of these two ozeki, it may well hurt Mitakeumi's chances rather than help as a precedent. 

That said, I reckon 12Y or 12D is a shoe-in.

Edited January 13, 2022 by Godango
Corrected shoe-in scores.

[Kashunowaka 300]

3 minutes ago, Godango said:

Even more recently we had:

• Shodai --> 8-11-13Y
• Asanoyama --> 11-10-11

Given the perceived disappointment of these two ozeki, it may well hurt Mitakeumi's chances rather than help as a precedent. 

That said, I reckon 13Y or 13D is a shoe-in.

I think that 13-2 is a shoe-in for Mitakeumi even if he comes in fifth place.

[Shatsume 116]

I'll take up the mantle of reminding people:

Still week 1 Mitakeumi... 

 

(He's looking good though, eh!) 

[Seiyashi 4,068]

Asanoyama had 10-11-10-11 over the last few basho prior to his promotion, and was clearly putting up regular performances in the sanyaku, though. His ozeki debut also was extremely promising until something broke in his brain with Terunofuji's return. Shodai's the more questionable pick, but if he can start an ozeki run with 8 wins, Mitakeumi is in far better shape.

13Y/D is almost for sure. I don't see it with 11 - who are the extra two losses (and to look good losing them) going to come from, when there's only Shodai and Terunofuji who outrank him now? 12 is the dicey one, IMO. If he goes 12J to Teru's 13Y and the extra loss is to Teru himself or something, or if he otherwise keeps up with Teru all the way till day 14, then he probably gets the nod. But if he drops 3 early in week 2 and rallies, that's a much harder sell.

Edited January 13, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Godango 956]

2 minutes ago, Kashunowaka said:

I think that 13-2 is a shoe-in for Mitakeumi even if he comes in fifth place.

Right yeah, sorry. I meant 12-3Y or 12-3D.

[Godango 956]

6 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Asanoyama had 10-11-10-11 over the last few basho prior to his promotion, and was clearly putting up regular performances in the sanyaku, though. His ozeki debut also was extremely promising until something broke in his brain with Terunofuji's return. Shodai's the more questionable pick, but if he can start an ozeki run with 8 wins, Mitakeumi is in far better shape.

13Y/D is almost for sure. I don't see it with 11 - who are the extra two losses (and to look good losing them) going to come from, when there's only Shodai and Terunofuji who outrank him now? 12 is the dicey one, IMO. If he goes 12J to Teru's 13Y and the extra loss is to Teru himself or something, or if he otherwise keeps up with Teru all the way till day 14, then he probably gets the nod. But if he drops 3 early in week 2 and rallies, that's a much harder sell.

To be nitpicky, Asanoyama's ozeki run comprised of his entire stint in sanyaku, and prior to that he'd gone:

• M2 10-5
• M1 7-8
• M8 12-3Y

Prior to that, his highest rank was M5, 5KK (2 double digit), 6MK. I think based on this it's fair to say Asanoyama's 32 was guided by (justified) upside, especially given his yusho.  

Mitakeumi is the other side of the coin, a junior sanyaku (most recently since Natsu/Nagoya '20) mainstay with 2 yusho to his name. 2nd most calendar wins last year, KK in Junior sanyaku since Natsu '21. What Isegahama as stated publicly aside, if that's not a scenario that allows for a little bit of grace in the target I don't know what is. My opinion:

• 13 wins -- or any Y/D, a virtual certainty.
• 12 wins -- probably enough.
• 11 wins -- remote chance depending on other results, but unlikely.

[Yamanashi 3,687]

25 minutes ago, Kashunowaka said:

I think that 13-2 is a shoe-in for Mitakeumi even if he comes in fifth place.

I'd be nervous about a prediction of 13-2 Y, because that means Terunofuji kyujo, likely.  Listen: 13 wins means 33 over three basho, by the book.  "Not an impressive performance"? Wins in 2020-2021: Shodai 103, Takakeisho 97, Mitakeumi 98 (includes both Ozekis' yusho but not Mitakeumi's).

As mentioned above, this is Miss-akeumi, and anything can happen.

 

[Gurowake 3,875]

43 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Wins in 2020-2021: Shodai 103, Takakeisho 97, Mitakeumi 98

Considering there are 90 bouts per year, those numbers don't look impressive for anyone.  Oh, you did better than 50/50, big deal.  Ok, there were only 75 in 2020.  I guess that makes it a LITTLE better.  The Ozeki look actually better when you add that Shodai had 11 absences (both yasumi and fusenpai) and Takakeisho 23 while Mitakeumi had zero. 

Not that I don't feel much differently than Godango, though I would caution that an 11-4Y/D (or worse!) means almost nothing.

 

Edited January 13, 2022 by Gurowake

[Kintamayama 44,254]

Mitakeumi, because he is Mitakeumi and all that entails, needs 14 wins to be promoted to Ozeki, IMHO. Before the basho, it was reported he'll need a zensho to even start a conversation. But A) We know how this works when 14 wins actually happen, and B) there is no point in comparing former Ozeki runs of other rikishi, as each one is unique- sometimes 32 is enough, sometimes 34 isn't. Mitakeumi is a choker, but since there was near zero talk about an Ozeki run for him before the basho, there was near zero pressure on him from his peers and the press as well, hence his pretty good performance, record-wise and quality wise thus far.. Early days, yes, but something about him is different this basho. Does anyone know if he put on any weight recently? He sure looks heavier.

And 4 double digit wins at Sekiwake (two yushos) out of 17 bashos at the rank.. Mitakeumi.

Shoudai - 3 bashos at Sekiwake, 2 double digit wins. Takakeishou? 3 bashos at Sekiwake, all of them double-digit wins. Terunofuji? 4 bashos at Sekiwake including his second coming, all double digit wins, no less than 11 wins- and one basho where he left after starting 0-5 , starting his downward spiral with the injury.

Edited January 13, 2022 by Kintamayama

[ScreechingOwl 343]

1 hour ago, Godango said:

Mitakeumi is the other side of the coin, a junior sanyaku (most recently since Natsu/Nagoya '20) mainstay with 2 yusho to his name. 2nd most calendar wins last year, KK in Junior sanyaku since Natsu '21. What Isegahama as stated publicly aside, if that's not a scenario that allows for a little bit of grace in the target I don't know what is. My opinion:

• 13 wins -- or any Y/D, a virtual certainty.
• 12 wins -- probably enough.
• 11 wins -- remote chance depending on other results, but unlikely.

If Mitakeumi gets 12 wins he'll have 32 over the last three basho, one less that the ideal number of 33 (and even that is no guarantee of promotion, and in rare circumstances 34 (Miyabiyama) hasn't been enough either) but many rikishi have been promoted with 32 (including Asanoyama and Kisenosato) and there is a real need at the top with Takakeisho perpetually plagued by injuried and Shodai perpetually plagued by, um, mediocrity. On the downside, this is a rather weak sanyaku (even further weakened with Takakeisho gone) and jo'i, so winning 12 against this bunch is hardly super impressive. But Mitakeumi, love him or loath him, has been steady over the last years and there is no reason to think that is going to stop any time soon. That's the kind of thing the JSA takes into account as well.

[Jakusotsu 5,743]

Quite funny that we have discussion after just 5 days when it's still Mitakeumi we're talking about.

That said, he would make no worse Ozeki than the current crop or any other Goeido regarding consistency.

[Kintamayama 44,254]

17 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Quite funny that we have discussion after just 5 days when it's still Mitakeumi we're talking about.

That said, he would make no worse Ozeki than the current crop or any other Goeido regarding consistency.

Because there is a general feeling that with Takakeishou out and Shoudai not present, it seems that maybe, just maybe, he can do it this time. 

Edited January 13, 2022 by Kintamayama

[Yamanashi 3,687]

10 minutes ago, ScreechingOwl said:

If Mitakeumi gets 12 wins he'll have 32 over the last three basho, one less that the ideal number of 33 (and even that is no guarantee of promotion, and in rare circumstances 34 (Miyabiyama) hasn't been enough either) but many rikishi have been promoted with 32 (including Asanoyama and Kisenosato) and there is a real need at the top with Takakeisho perpetually plagued by injuried and Shodai perpetually plagued by, um, mediocrity. On the downside, this is a rather weak sanyaku (even further weakened with Takakeisho gone) and jo'i, so winning 12 against this bunch is hardly super impressive. But Mitakeumi, love him or loath him, has been steady over the last years and there is no reason to think that is going to stop any time soon. That's the kind of thing the JSA takes into account as well.

Well exactly.  I don't think Mitakeumi is the next great thing, but he's holding a (current level) Ozeki winning percentage, and has been for five years.  He's also been out for 5 bouts in his career.  Anything can happen ...

[Reonito 1,296]

32 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

sometimes 32 is enough, sometimes 34 isn't

The only time 34 over 3 basho in san'yaku wasn't enough was when Miyabiyama was trying to regain the rank. Otherwise, it's been a stone-cold guarantee.

[Eikokurai 3,433]

2 hours ago, Godango said:

Even more recently we had:

• Shodai --> 8-11-13Y
• Asanoyama --> 11-10-11

Given the perceived disappointment of these two ozeki, it may well hurt Mitakeumi's chances rather than help as a precedent. 

That said, I reckon 12Y or 12D is a shoe-in.

There were no disappointments with Asanoyama as regards his performances. He had four double-digit records in his six Ozeki appearances and would probably have got another kachikoshi if he hadn’t been forced to withdraw from his final one the last three days. 

[Kintamayama 44,254]

8 minutes ago, Reonito said:

The only time 34 over 3 basho in san'yaku wasn't enough was when Miyabiyama was trying to regain the rank. Otherwise, it's been a stone-cold guarantee.

Indeed, and yet it happened.. That's why I think he needs 14 wins. Maybe 13 with a yusho and a win over Terunofuji. I don't think a "regular" 13 wins will cut it, guarantee or not. The elders seem to treat him harshly, do not like his keiko attitude, and generally seem to ignore him. 

Edited January 13, 2022 by Kintamayama

[Eikokurai 3,433]

3 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

Well, he's been in Sanyaku for 10 straight basho, and averaged 9.0 wins over the last nine.  With 9-6, 11-4 in the last two basho, he'd need 13 wins to nail it, IMHO.  12?  I dunno.

The 10th of course was the cancelled basho. He has 81 wins from a possible 135 in nine tournaments. 

[Kaninoyama 1,660]

2 hours ago, Godango said:

Even more recently we had:

• Shodai --> 8-11-13Y
• Asanoyama --> 11-10-11

Given the perceived disappointment of these two ozeki, it may well hurt Mitakeumi's chances rather than help as a precedent. 

That said, I reckon 12Y or 12D is a shoe-in.

To boot, on yesterday's NHK broadcast Mainoumi remarked regarding Mitakeumi's potential promotion that given the poor performance of the current Ozeki, the promotion committee needs to avoid further promotion of "weak Ozeki." 

[Godango 956]

1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

There were no disappointments with Asanoyama as regards his performances. He had four double-digit records in his six Ozeki appearances and would probably have got another kachikoshi if he hadn’t been forced to withdraw from his final one the last three days. 

Agreed, that's why I threw 'perceived' in. The only thing that may make them wary of leniency again in regards to Asanoyama is the fact that the leniency ultimately blew up in their face, albeit not due to performance.

2 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Mitakeumi, because he is Mitakeumi and all that entails, needs 14 wins to be promoted to Ozeki, IMHO. Before the basho, it was reported he'll need a zensho to even start a conversation. But A) We know how this works when 14 wins actually happen, and B) there is no point in comparing former Ozeki runs of other rikishi, as each one is unique- sometimes 32 is enough, sometimes 34 isn't. Mitakeumi is a choker, but since there was near zero talk about an Ozeki run for him before the basho, there was near zero pressure on him from his peers and the press as well, hence his pretty good performance, record-wise and quality wise thus far.. Early days, yes, but something about him is different this basho. Does anyone know if he put on any weight recently? He sure looks heavier.

And 4 double digit wins at Sekiwake (two yushos) out of 17 bashos at the rank.. Mitakeumi.

Shoudai - 3 bashos at Sekiwake, 2 double digit wins. Takakeishou? 3 bashos at Sekiwake, all of them double-digit wins. Terunofuji? 4 bashos at Sekiwake including his second coming, all double digit wins, no less than 11 wins- and one basho where he left after starting 0-5 , starting his downward spiral with the injury.

Agreed on all of this too, to be fair. They may well want a third basho from him even though he hit 33, as they did with Takakeisho when they deemed his 9-13Y-11J to be not impressive enough. The only thing I would say is at that time (from the perspective of the NSK), -- they weren't hurting for Ozeki whereas now they have two who between them are kyujo/kadoban far more often than I'm sure they'd like.

To go a little deeper on this:

• Takakeisho
  • Since promotion (including his Ozekiwake basho) - he's completed 10/16 basho (63% attendance).
  • Of these completed basho - his cumulative scores are 106-44 (71% win rate, 1 Y, 2D, 2JY)
• Shodai
  • Since promotion he's completed 6/7 basho (86% attendance).
  • Of these completed basho - his cumulative scores are 52-38 (58% win rate, 1JY)

Let's refine this down to the last 6 basho for a fairer comparison to Mitakeumi's current run (All would have had the same schedule as Mitakeumi was Junior Sanyaku the whole time. ):

Rikishi	Attendance	Win Rate	Yusho	Doten	Jun-Yusho	KK	MK
Takakeisho	79%	63%	0	1	1	4	2
Shodai	100%	58%	0	0	1	5	1
Mitakeumi	100%	61%	0	0	0	6	0

Kind of demonstrates the point we're all making. Mitakeumi fits in nicely with our current ozeki, but they're hardly setting the world on fire. 

His weakness is also his strength, he's consistent as heck. No MK's, but just not blowing anyone away. My personal opinion is now upgraded to "Needs 12+ Y/D".

 

Edited January 14, 2022 by Godango

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,244]

Well, if you are a fan of weird unlikely things you will be rooting for a Shodai makekoshi and Mitakeumi to NOT get promoted to Ozeki this time, then in spring both Ozeki go makekoshi again and Mitakeumi gets forced promoted into Ozeki on a 8-7 or something...

[Yamanashi 3,687]

1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

The 10th of course was the cancelled basho. He has 81 wins from a possible 135 in nine tournaments. 

7/2020

9/2020

11/2020

1/2021

3/2021

5/2021

7/2021

9/2021

11/2021

 ... the tenth is this one, 1/2022.