Hatsu 2022 discussions (results)

[Eikokurai 3,433]

1 hour ago, Kaninoyama said:

Anyone have a handy list of rikishi who have accomplished this?

Yeah, I made a thread on it last year. I'm waiting to see if I need to update the table at the end of this basho!

[jsolo 106]

January (Hatsu) 2022 Basho--DAY 4 Links and Statistics Blog--videos, photos, match articles, quotes, results and standings, kimarite statistics, time of match statistics, top rank performance, Maegashira v san'yaku, Rookie performances and more.

[Kaninoyama 1,649]

50 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Yeah, I made a thread on it last year. I'm waiting to see if I need to update the table at the end of this basho!

Thanks, completely missed that thread. Good work!

[Eikokurai 3,433]

RE: earlier talk about first-time yusho winners at Hatsu, I looked up how many hatsu yusho have been won at each of the six honbasho. I checked manually by reading down the list, so I hope I didn't miss any. 

Hatsu:                 18 first-time yusho winners
Haru:                   10
Natsu:                 16
Nagoya:              11
Aki:                      7
Fukuoka:            7

As you can see, Hatsu is aptly named as it really has seen the most hatsu yusho, though only slightly ahead of Natsu. Fukuoka is a tough place to get off the mark. I wonder what the lower numbers for September and November indicate, if anything. 

[Kaninoyama 1,649]

39 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

RE: earlier talk about first-time yusho winners at Hatsu, I looked up how many hatsu yusho have been won at each of the six honbasho. I checked manually by reading down the list, so I hope I didn't miss any. 

Hatsu:                 18 first-time yusho winners
Haru:                   10
Natsu:                 16
Nagoya:              11
Aki:                      7
Fukuoka:            7

As you can see, Hatsu is aptly named as it really has seen the most hatsu yusho, though only slightly ahead of Natsu. Fukuoka is a tough place to get off the mark. I wonder what the lower numbers for September and November indicate, if anything. 

One explanation I think ex-Kisenosato offered on a preview show recently was that the Yokozuna and Ozeki, secure in their ranks, indulge in a little too much holiday cheer and are slower to get off the blocks at Hatsu, opening the way for a more eager and motivated contender to jump off to a good start and steal a yusho at the end. 

Edited January 13, 2022 by Kaninoyama

[Eikokurai 3,433]

2 minutes ago, Kaninoyama said:

One explanation I think ex-Kisenosato offered on a preview show recently was that the Yokozuna and Ozeki, secure in their ranks, indulge in a little too much holiday cheer and are slower to get off the blocks at Hatsu, opening the way for a more eager and motivated contender to jump off to a good start and steal a yusho at the end. 

Yeah, I think that explains Hatsu, but why the dip at the end of the year? In other sports, I might say fatigue, but the gaps between basho are pretty consistent. There's no real off-season. Perhaps psychologically there is though. Rikishi are human and may treat January as a new season and November the end.

[Seiyashi 4,068]

Nor does it explain the surge in Natsu either, which to my mind is the weakest link in the "fresh start Hatsu" theory. I don't think it's quite as clean as Nishonoseki suggests and there are other factors like jungyo recovery at play as well, although the full list of hatsu yusho winners is needed to derive further explanations.

Edited January 13, 2022 by Seiyashi

[since_94 650]

Hoshoryu did NOT like that harite from Tobizaru. Suspect he’ll try to knock the flying monkey’s block off next time they meet. In fairness, it looked like Tobizaru accidentally caught the nephew’s eye with a finger, thus the disgruntlement, not necessarily indignation with the slap per se.

[since_94 650]

23 hours ago, Faustonowaka said:

Terunofuji barely wins the battle of wounded knee(s)

Such a great fight, but the ending felt almost anticlimactic after the effort Ura put in. He really threw everything he had at the Yokozuna. 

[Seiyashi 4,068]

Nice reappearance of the sky crane from Tochinoshin. Sucks to be Kotoeko, though, who was a victim of it in its last appearance in Nagoya as well.

Some matta fest that was between Ishiura and Myogiryu. Not surprising then that the bout proper started with half a henka. With Myogiryu's loss, and Onosho also suffering his first loss, the leaders are thinning.

NHK also playing catchup with Abema. The yobidashi are getting their own on-screen captions with name, shusshin and heya. 

Edited January 13, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Seiyashi 4,068]

How jinxed is the observation that Mitakeumi looks more like an ozeki than the two serving incumbents?

Less facetiously, and Isegahama's "zensho" joke prior to the basho aside, IMO if Mitakeumi manages to stay on par with Terunofuji all the way and only then falls behind in the yusho race, and doesn't more than two bouts otherwise, the NSK might talk about it. So a -1J or a D might well do it, for instance.

[Akinomaki 39,497]

28 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

NHK also playing catchup with Abema. The yobidashi are getting their own on-screen captions with name, shusshin and heya. 

NHK always had a day to present the gyoji, sometimes not all on one day and not at all basho

[Kurowashi 42]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

How jinxed is the observation that Mitakeumi looks more like an ozeki than the two serving incumbents?

Less facetiously, and Isegahama's "zensho" joke prior to the basho aside, IMO if Mitakeumi manages to stay on par with Terunofuji all the way and only then falls behind in the yusho race, and doesn't more than two bouts otherwise, the NSK might talk about it. So a -1J or a D might well do it, for instance.

also Takakeisho pulling out, will probably help for this decision..

[Seiyashi 4,068]

5 minutes ago, Kurowashi said:

also Takakeisho pulling out, will probably help for this decision..

Perhaps only insofar as Mitakeumi has one less hard bout to fight. Takakeisho being injury prone isn't exactly news to the NSK, so his unreliability will already have been a factor in deciding how lightly to promote Mitakeumi even before his current kyujo.

[Yokozuna Hattorizakura 149]

The way things are going perhaps Asanoyama may get lucky and stay in Juryo next basho, with Chiyonoo and Shiden also out and Chiyoarashi likely to finish quite badly.

[Seiyashi 4,068]

2 minutes ago, Yokozuna Hattorizakura said:

The way things are going perhaps Asanoyama may get lucky and stay in Juryo next basho, with Chiyonoo and Shiden also out and Chiyoarashi likely to finish quite badly.

Highly unlikely. The only 0-0-15 results from J4 that weren't kosho fell to J17-18, a rank which doesn't exist today. There's the "exceptions" of Takimiyama and Hirakagawa who fell to J14/15, but those were also in the days where Juryo extended to J24.

The last "proper" equivalent, Baruto with 0-1-14, still went down with 3 other demotees from juryo and 2 slots freed up by sekitori retirements. The last direct equivalent, however, is Kiyoseumi, who was suspended, along with many others, from J4 as a result of the fallout from the Kotomitsuki scandal. He went to Ms4.

Considering both the usual and the punishment 0-0-15 results go down to makushita in recent times, Asanoyama will have to be very lucky and hope for an upper makushita meltdown to stay in juryo for one more basho. But there are a lot of strong candidates in upper makushita, including Tomokaze at Ms15 with 3-0 so far.

[Leo C 52]

Akua's kakenage hijinks haven't been too effective in the mid maegashira, unfortunately. Hopefully he doesn't end up with a bad losing record.

Love watching Tobizaru fight, he just throws everything at the wall. First sweep attempt looked like he was trying to score a penalty kick or something. Hoshoryu definitely didn't like that slap, but I did.

[Yarimotsu 513]

I'm worried for bushozan, he'd been steadily improving for as long as I've been watching but do we think he's injured? maybe hit a physical wall this basho, carrying that much weight on a small frame like takakeisho?

[rhyen 1,798]

6 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Nor does it explain the surge in Natsu either, which to my mind is the weakest link in the "fresh start Hatsu" theory. I don't think it's quite as clean as Nishonoseki suggests and there are other factors like jungyo recovery at play as well, although the full list of hatsu yusho winners is needed to derive further explanations.

The Japanese academic year ends around March, people take time off to see Sakura blossoms and enjoy the golden week. So it is also a fresh start in May. 

[Eikokurai 3,433]

5 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

How jinxed is the observation that Mitakeumi looks more like an ozeki than the two serving incumbents?

Less facetiously, and Isegahama's "zensho" joke prior to the basho aside, IMO if Mitakeumi manages to stay on par with Terunofuji all the way and only then falls behind in the yusho race, and doesn't more than two bouts otherwise, the NSK might talk about it. So a -1J or a D might well do it, for instance.

12 is enough for me, but even with a good 11 they might have a chat. As I’ve argued before, if there’s a need for an Ozeki (and let’s be honest, there is) they could easily interpret his long tenure in sanyaku the way they took Kisenosato’s consistent performance at Ozeki as a sort of yusho equivalent. Mitakeumi’s shown he can hold his own at the top end of the banzuke fighting an Ozeki schedule, so it’s not like he’s an unknown quantity. 9-6, 11-4, 11-4 plus about five years of K/S appearances behind him makes a case, doesn’t it? I expect they’d ask for one more go, but I wouldn’t question a promotion on the strength of that myself.

[Seiyashi 4,068]

19 minutes ago, rhyen said:

7 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Nor does it explain the surge in Natsu either, which to my mind is the weakest link in the "fresh start Hatsu" theory. I don't think it's quite as clean as Nishonoseki suggests and there are other factors like jungyo recovery at play as well, although the full list of hatsu yusho winners is needed to derive further explanations.

The Japanese academic year ends around March, people take time off to see Sakura blossoms and enjoy the golden week. So it is also a fresh start in May. 

On this theory I wonder how many hatsu yusho winners in Natsu did in fact have their hatsu dohyo in Natsu as well, so they have the resolve of "this is my X year in sumo, I want to start it well".

[rhyen 1,798]

21 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

On this theory I wonder how many hatsu yusho winners in Natsu did in fact have their hatsu dohyo in Natsu as well, so they have the resolve of "this is my X year in sumo, I want to start it well".

Most of the debutants are registered for the March basho, skipping their convocations.

[BroadMeadow 32]

A third of the way through the basho and it looks like it is Terunofuji’s until someone takes it from him. Mitakeumi passes the eye test as doing the best sumo, but the history-test makes us skeptical. With Takakeisho’s withdraw will Abi face more of the joi early? Or will we have to wait for the send-up next Friday?

Of the five at 4-1, Tamawashi has done it before. Will Myogiru get the perpetually predicted breakthrough?

The 3-2/2-3 middle doesn’t have too many surprises. Tochinoshin’s place seems tenuous, even with today’s glimpse of the past. Rikishi do not live by glimpses alone.

Of the 1-4/0-5 bottom dwellers, the most pressing questions are the M1s and Ura. There doesn’t seem to be any reason Wakatakakage and Kiribayama can’t turn things around as the quality of competition decreases. Ura’s place appears a bit more tenuous. Shodai left him concussed while Takakeisho and Terunofuji took him to the physical limits. He didn’t seem to have anything in today’s match with Meisei. Tomorrow’s tussle with a motivated Kiribayama may tell the tale for both.  

[Gurowake 3,872]

6 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Highly unlikely. The only 0-0-15 results from J4 that weren't kosho fell to J17-18, a rank which doesn't exist today. There's the "exceptions" of Takimiyama and Hirakagawa who fell to J14/15, but those were also in the days where Juryo extended to J24.

The last "proper" equivalent, Baruto with 0-1-14, still went down with 3 other demotees from juryo and 2 slots freed up by sekitori retirements. The last direct equivalent, however, is Kiyoseumi, who was suspended, along with many others, from J4 as a result of the fallout from the Kotomitsuki scandal. He went to Ms4.

Considering both the usual and the punishment 0-0-15 results go down to makushita in recent times, Asanoyama will have to be very lucky and hope for an upper makushita meltdown to stay in juryo for one more basho. But there are a lot of strong candidates in upper makushita, including Tomokaze at Ms15 with 3-0 so far.

Every banzuke has to be analyzed separately. It's really not a good idea to look at where people ended up historically without also looking at the circumstances behind the movement.  If there are enough more compelling Juryo demotees and not enough viable Makushita promotees, it's within the realm of possibility that someone with an absence at Asanoyama's rank manages to stay in Juryo.  What makes it a lot less likely is the reason for his absence.  I have little doubt (but not no doubt) that they will find someone to promote at his expense regardless of how deep they have to go. 

[Seiyashi 4,068]

1 minute ago, Gurowake said:

I have little doubt (but not no doubt) that they will find someone to promote at his expense regardless of how deep they have to go. 

Hence the Kiyoseumi example: there were something like 6-7 demotions from Juryo that basho and a deeper than usual promotion zone from Makushita (Ms10, IIRC).