Akinomaki

Hatsu 2022 discussions (results)

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I would say Mitakeumi is, he is one win ahead and is the only one who can decide his own fate. Plus Terunofuji is definitely injured. 

Abi did what he did in November, only this time he was able to keep it up, probably aided a little by Terunofuji's knees. 

Hoshoryu seemed LIVID, but maybe he has just inherited his uncle's scowl. 

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So tomorrow … Abi v Kotonowaka and Mitakeumi v Terunofuji? That will drop one of the three chasers out of playoff contention, and then bring us either a three-way tie or Mitakeumi as outright winner. Yes?

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This is turning out to be the most exciting finish in a long while.   Who'd thought?

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5 minutes ago, Godango said:

I recognise how gingerly Terunofuji stepped off the dohyo from my own knee troubles going downstairs. He's not in a good way.

Yeah, he's definitively hurt. I feel a bit guilty thinking about it, but perhaps this could help the chances for Mitakeumi to win against him tomorrow. Honestly, everything is aligning in favour of Mitakeumi's Ozeki run despite his own shortcomings: Takakeisho out, Shodai underperforming even for his standards, Terunofuji limping... If he fails this time he should blame only himself.

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1 minute ago, Eikokurai said:

So tomorrow … Abi v Kotonowaka and Mitakeumi v Terunofuji? That will drop one of the three chasers out of playoff contention, and then bring us either a three-way tie or Mitakeumi as outright winner. Yes?

Yes, mmmm.

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Just now, robnplunder said:

This is turning out to be the most exciting finish in a long while.   Who'd thought?

Hatsu. Joker's always wild (since the end of Hakuho's dominance, anyway)

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2 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

Yeah, he's definitively hurt. I feel a bit guilty thinking about it, but perhaps this could help the chances for Mitakeumi to win against him tomorrow. Honestly, everything is aligning in favour of Mitakeumi's Ozeki run despite his own shortcomings: Takakeisho out, Shodai underperforming even for his standards, Terunofuji limping... If he fails this time he should blame only himself.

Frankly, he’s already succeeded. If he “fails”, it’s down to the pettiness of the Kyokai taking the 33-wins thing too literally.

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44 minutes ago, since_94 said:
45 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

This is turning out to be the most exciting finish in a long while.   Who'd thought?

Hatsu. Joker's always wild (since the end of Hakuho's dominance, anyway)

Hatsu has gone down to the wire for four years straight (i.e. the yusho result depended on senshuraku bouts). The last time it didn't was when Tochinoshin wrapped up the basho by day 14 in 2018, although it was pretty much clear he was going to win a couple of days before that.

Edited by Seiyashi

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13 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

There’s plenty to be enjoyed about a level playing field though while we have it. 

 

12 minutes ago, since_94 said:

Indeed. Feels like the nadir. Yet I am still entertained by today's bouts, and there are a lot of rikishi to support/follow, nothwithstanding.

Yeah, absolutely, me too. I even think quality wise 2019 was way worse than now.. It only shows how close the joi and sanyaku are and how far above the yokozuna is these days.. (besides maybe this tournament :-D)

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41 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:
44 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

Yeah, he's definitively hurt. I feel a bit guilty thinking about it, but perhaps this could help the chances for Mitakeumi to win against him tomorrow. Honestly, everything is aligning in favour of Mitakeumi's Ozeki run despite his own shortcomings: Takakeisho out, Shodai underperforming even for his standards, Terunofuji limping... If he fails this time he should blame only himself.

Frankly, he’s already succeeded. If he “fails”, it’s down to the pettiness of the Kyokai taking the 33-wins thing too literally.

Agreed. I don't see why Shodai can start a run with 8-7 while this is only treated as the second basho in a run for Mitakeumi.

To play devil's advocate, though, Shodai's record in the year preceding his promotion was fairly impressive, clocking up 4 double digit records, 2 junyusho, a yusho, 4(!) kantosho and a shukunsho on his way to ozeki. (Where the hell is that Shodai now?) In contrast, Mitakeumi's record in the past 6 basho (including this) was 3 double digits, 1 9-6, and 2 8-7s. Mitakeumi's sanyaku record is also much longer and much less obviously illustrious, with honours strung out but rarely concentrated.

While he would have been stable at ozeki had he been promoted anytime before this, he would not have been a great ozeki, with double digit scores being somewhat rare. Out of 28 basho in sanyaku he has only gone double digits 7 times, a hit rate of 25%. For contrast, Shodai has gone double digits as an ozeki once in 8 basho with 1 JY, a somewhat comparable rate allowing for the low sample size. Takakeisho went 5 DD in 15 (6 in 16 if you count his ozekiwake basho) with 4 JY and 1 Y, a much better strike rate, and Asanoyama went 4 DD in all 4 basho he completed as an ozeki with 2 JY.

If Mitakeumi had been promoted and put up the same numbers as he had, he wouldn't be a great ozeki, somewhat Kaio-esque in his results, and would land somewhere between Takakeisho and Shodai in the assessment of his sumo, and way below Asanoyama in terms of stability and high performance.

So the flip side of the coin is that other than a sudden burst of form, Mitakeumi isn't really making it easy for his supporters to say that he's turned a corner. if Shodai's performance as an ozeki is bad, there aren't that many grounds to suggest that Mitakeumi will be that much better. Ordinarily I would think it wouldn't be necessary to beat Terunofuji to secure ozeki promotion, since that's an acceptable loss, but I think he now needs to secure the yusho outright to force the conversation. Otherwise, he might get the Takakeisho treatment where the NSK says they will wait one more basho to see his sustained performance. Then we will really see if Mitakeumi's mental game is up to snuff. I don't think it is, but I wouldn't bet against it either.

Edited by Seiyashi
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8 hours ago, robnplunder said:

Compare to his 1st run at Makuuchi division, Ura's current sumo style is almost orthodox.   Back then, he was like a headless chicken running around and bumping into walls.  

IIRC it was his first basho in Makuuchi where he once crouched all the way back at the tawara to start a bout.

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23 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Otherwise, he might get the Takakeisho treatment where the NSK says they will wait one more basho to see his sustained performance. 

Takakeisho’s was as much about his age and experience as his performance. He’d only been in Makuuchi two years by that point and was very young; Mitakeumi has had five in sanyaku. Of course, there are two ways of looking at that: he’s brilliantly consistent or he peaked at his true level.

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27 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Then we will really see if Mitakeumi's mental game is up to snuff. I don't think it is, but I wouldn't bet against it either.

Even if Mita's mental game does not improve, he will go KK more often than Shodai did so far.  If he fixes his 2nd half collapses, he will have double-digit-win basho more often.

Edited by robnplunder
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Now I'm 100% rooting for a Kotonowaka yusho, although it will need a whole flock of pigs flying.

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1 hour ago, TakanohanaFan said:

Oho can still secure kk tomorrow. 

Just checking results and Wakatakakage and his brothers all got kk by winning today.

The papers already go for "on the way to 3 sekitori brothers at the same time" - the Izutsu 3 failed to manage this - but Wakatakamoto with a simple kachikoshi will only move into the makushita top 15, where he has been several times before without getting higher than ms7. He is already 30 and the lightest of the 3, it will be hard for him to make it to juryo. I'm still hoping for that though.

1 hour ago, Thorbjarn said:

Edit: With the end of the Hoshoryu vs Shodai bout I have to ask the stupid question... Is the gyoji actually allowed to call a torinaoshi himself? 

He can't. He can't call a mono-ii and can't take part in the shimpan decision - they only ask him about the reason for HIS decision.

Edited by Akinomaki
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45 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Agreed. I don't see why Shodai can start a run with 8-7 while this is only treated as the second basho in a run for Mitakeumi.

Shodai was promoted with a 13-2 yusho, anything less would have meant nothing - a 12-3 yusho after a ketteisen tomorrow should be enough for Mitakeumi, otherwise his chances are 50% at best, I'd say

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Oh my, we could be set for a very interesting senshuraku with the distinct possibility of a tomoesen finish.

Mitakeumi can now do no worse than a 12-3D, which ought to be enough (IMO) considering his extended sanyaku tenure and reliability in terms of attendance and KK, especially set against a backdrop of 2 kadoban ozeki in March.

---

Mmm, schadenfreude... although I thought Chiyoshoma looked more amused than annoyed by Tsurugisho's henka today. 

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What was Terutsuyoshi trying there a the tachiai ? Chiyonokuni was almost a foot behind the shikiri. I suppose a little hop and presenting his head to him was not Terutsuyoshi´s plan.(Eh?)

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Hot take(s): 

 

I really don't think Mitakeumi will be able to beat Terunofuji tomorrow, even if he is injured.
Mitakeumi's fighting style is just not suitable against a stronger, taller opponent who loves fighting on the belt.

I actually think Mitakeumi is the least likely to win the cup tomorrow...

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2 minutes ago, Hakuryuho said:

I really don't think Mitakeumi will be able to beat Terunofuji tomorrow, even if he is injured.

If this happens, we might get the eternal tomoesen - Mita can beat Abi, but loses to Terunofuji, who loses to Abi, and so on...

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I say this even though Terunofuji is one of my favorite rikishi but I am hoping that Mitakeumi wins tomorrow. It is painfully obvious that Terunofuji's knee or knees are not good at all. A playoff match or matches won't help his knees.:-(

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To state the obvious, Mitakeumi will go all-out at the tachiai, looking for a quick finish. If I were Terunofuji, I´d do a henka. That might also keep Mitakeumi honest in the ensuing playoff bout.

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1 minute ago, Gospodin said:

To state the obvious, Mitakeumi will go all-out at the tachiai, looking for a quick finish. If I were Terunofuji, I´d do a henka. That might also keep Mitakeumi honest in the ensuing playoff bout.

Unfortunately Terunofuji has been scared straight after that infamous henka over Kotoshogiku. And he's now a yokozuna too. Won't be worth the scolding he will get from the YDC. 

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I have followed Mitakeumi for the last few years and think it is logical that it took him all this time to get into a position where he can get to Ozeki. He started out as a very one sided wrestler in the same extreme pusher style as Meisei, Takaleisho, Deisho and Onosho. Of these only Takaleisho has been able to win relatively consistently. But he fights on a knife edge with his body weight resulting in frequent injuries. Mitakeumi instead  changed his fighting style to include more throws and belt work. At first with disastrous results. He was really bad at anything than pushing. Over time his technique has improved and he has now got a much wider arsenal than the other pushers. I think he now has the chance to become a good Ozeki. A few years back an ozeki promotion would have been a catastrophy (like Shodai's).

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6 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Unfortunately Terunofuji has been scared straight after that infamous henka over Kotoshogiku. And he's now a yokozuna too. Won't be worth the scolding he will get from the YDC. 

I know, just a little game theory :-). Having been the arch villain already once, I think Terunofuji would weather that storm. He was injured then, and supposedly is now.

And if Hakuho could pull that off..

Edited by Gospodin

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