Hatsu 2022 discussions (results)

[Eikokurai 3,433]

Fair to say Chiyoshoma is not a rikishi I like much, but respect for actually giving Terunofuji a proper belt battle today. That’s what sumo needs more of!

[Godango 956]

I'm going to be that guy to bring things back to the Mitakeumi discussion.

So here's where we're at:

• Takakeisho will be kadoban for Haru
• Shodai will almost certainly be kadoban for Haru
• We have one Yokozuna
• No-one else can be reasonably entertained as even beginning an ozeki run.

If the powers-that-be were to decide that Mitakeumi needs to prove himself in another tournament, we have a genuine chance of both ozeki being demoted after losing records in Haru, and Mitakeumi also not putting up a respectable score.

This would be mean NO ozeki, and with only one yokozuna, that's impossible, right? What could be done (genuine question, can anything be done in that event?).

The only way to avoid that is to promote Mitakeumi here. That means worst case you have two more tournaments of breathing room for a 10+ ozekiwake performance (if needed), or for someone else to start a half-decent run to justify promotion. Banzuke crisis short-term avoided.

If Mitakeumi gets 8+ next tournament, wonderful. Otherwise, you NEED him to get double digits again to save your bacon.

So let's look where we could end up with Mitakeumi and where it lines up with historical precedent (modern era only):

• 30 wins (which he's currently on)
  • This has been a promotable record 5 times, most recently Kaiketsu in 1974/75.
  • 2/5 included a yusho in the run (1 of which also had a JY)
  • 1/5 included a jun-yusho in the run.
  • Two of them started on 7-8 records.
  • Summary -- there is precedent for this. And if they're desperate, anything is possible.
• 31 wins
  • This has been a promotable record 4 times, most recently Onokuni in 1985.
  • 1/4 included a yusho in the run
  • 3/4 included a jun-yusho in the run.
  • Summary -- there's a current oyakata/former yokozuna who was promoted to ozeki with this record. Entirely justfiable, especially considering Mitakeumi's consistency in sanyaku and the dire ozeki situation. 11-4 Y or J and I think it'll happen.
• 32 wins
  • This has been a promotable record 9 times, most recently Shodai in 2020.
  • 5/9 included a yusho in the run
  • 5/9 included a jun-yusho in the run.
  • This was how Goeido was promoted -- granted, with two J (12-3 J, 8-7, 12-3 J)
  • Summary -- I'm convinced a 12-3 Mitakeumi gets promoted.

I'm not even going to get into this anymore. I wouldn't be surprised if they promote him as is, but 2 more wins and I think it's guaranteed given current circumstances and Mitakeumi's prior yushos and sanyaku mainstay-ness.

 

[since_94 650]

If there were no Ozeki, Terunofuji would just be listed as Y/O on the banzuke, as I understand it, though I stand to be corrected. Meanwhile, the NSK would be left ******** bricks and making sacrifices to the gods to protect the grand champion’s knees until the precarious potential power vacuum could be resolved without compromising the established promotion criteria.

[RabidJohn 1,663]

I am in the unusual position of being happy to hear Myogiryu and Shimanoumi are injured.

Edited January 19, 2022 by RabidJohn

[Morty 1,480]

57 minutes ago, Godango said:

 

I'm not even going to get into this anymore. I wouldn't be surprised if they promote him as is, but 2 more wins and I think it's guaranteed given current circumstances and Mitakeumi's prior yushos and sanyaku mainstay-ness.

 

He's making it easier for them with a near flawless performance so far. He had a close call one day and lost to Hokotofuji - the rest has been near perfect in terms of the sumo he has displayed. Nothing but oshidashi and yorikiri wins. He has beaten both Komosubi and the one remaining Ozeki, he has one Sekiwake and the Yokozuna to go. The other two are Onosho and maybe Chiyoshoma? The way he is going he wins two, maybe three of those (maybe all four) and if that happens they won't deny him I think.

[Rocks 1,807]

2 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

For the first time ever during a basho, I went to the 'Ozumo discussions' before this thread to see if there was any mention of Myogiryu's and Shimanoumi's unexpected kyujo. Nothing as I type. 

I should have said their names, sorry,  but I did say this a bit earlier. 

8 hours ago, Rocks said:

I imagine the Torikumi will be late tonight with 2 more guys dropping out. 

 

[Godango 956]

58 minutes ago, since_94 said:

If there were no Ozeki, Terunofuji would just be listed as Y/O on the banzuke, as I understand it, though I stand to be corrected. Meanwhile, the NSK would be left ******** bricks and making sacrifices to the gods to protect the grand champion’s knees until the precarious potential power vacuum could be resolved without compromising the established promotion criteria.

There needs to be two though, right? So if we had two yokozuna, less stress as they could both be Y/O, one Yokozuna, one ozeki, fine. But one yokozuna, no ozeki? From what I understand, that's not "allowed". 

[lackmaker 431]

So some think if Mitakeumi loses 4 straight he still gets promoted?

Equally unlikely but if takanosho wins 3or4  more why would he not be on an ozeki run?

[since_94 650]

14 minutes ago, Godango said:

There needs to be two though, right? So if we had two yokozuna, less stress as they could both be Y/O, one Yokozuna, one ozeki, fine. But one yokozuna, no ozeki? From what I understand, that's not "allowed". 

Quick google search suggests you are correct. It’s a conundrum, for sure, if the dual kadoban—> demotion scenario were to transpire before a Mitakeumi promotion.

[Rocks 1,807]

Mitakeumi is cream for here on out. He'll beat Onosho and Takanosho. That's 12 and  jun yusho at least. He's an Ozeki. Go ahead and book the caterer for the party. 

[Eikokurai 3,433]

2 hours ago, lackmaker said:

So some think if Mitakeumi loses 4 straight he still gets promoted?

Equally unlikely but if takanosho wins 3or4  more why would he not be on an ozeki run?

Well, he would be. Has anyone said otherwise? If he finishes with 10, that’s a perfectly respectable mid-run score following his 11 last time. But that’s all it’d be: the middle basho of a run. 

[hakutorizakura 590]

 

19 hours ago, hakutorizakura said:

It's sad to see Chiyonokuni going 0-10. Come on, you can do it, get that first win!!

Yay, he made it  More wins!

I was kind of hoping that Chiyoshoma would pull off a henka, just to see how the yokozuna handles it. On the contrary, he put up a valiant effort. Nice 

[Seregost 130]

I've been thinking for a while in this matter: it's really unusual to see someone doing henka against a yokozuna. Why this? Just because they are too good to fall for it? Or there's another reason? I mean, I woudn't like Hakuho's reaction, for sure...but still...

[Katooshu 3,132]

Can't mess around when the boss is there! I think it's a way of showing respect to the rank.

And in the case of facing Hakuho, not getting your head taken off in the next match.

Edited January 19, 2022 by Katooshu

[Akinomaki 39,768]

21 hours ago, Godango said:

There needs to be two though, right? So if we had two yokozuna, less stress as they could both be Y/O, one Yokozuna, one ozeki, fine. But one yokozuna, no ozeki? From what I understand, that's not "allowed". 

There have to be 2 ozeki on the banzuke, the yokozuna technically is one of them, but we will have our 2 present ozeki also next basho. They will both have to fail to get 8 wins next basho to get to that no ozeki situation, if we take for granted that Shodai will lose another bout - he is not yet kadoban. Only that unlikely case would cause the need to promote the best sekiwake also with less than the standard 33 wins in 3 basho, no need to do that already this basho.

This situation now might ensure a promotion for Mitakeumi with 13 wins (33 total) and give him the chance to get promoted also with 12 wins. Mainichi shimbun brings titles like "on the way to ozeki", but I'll only believe it when it happens.

Edited January 20, 2022 by Akinomaki

[Reonito 1,335]

50 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

if we take for granted that Shodai will lose all remaining bouts - he is not yet kadoban

lose one of his remaining bouts—he's at 7 losses

[WAKATAKE 2,631]

10-5 will not do it even if Shodai goes MK. An 11-4 possibly if that 11th win is against Terunofuji. 12 wins he is in. 

[lackmaker 431]

5 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

Well, he would be. Has anyone said otherwise? If he finishes with 10, that’s a perfectly respectable mid-run score following his 11 last time. But that’s all it’d be: the middle basho of a run. 

 

9 hours ago, Godango said:

No-one else can be reasonably entertained as even beginning an ozeki run.

I'd say Takanosho has a reasonable chance.

Edited January 19, 2022 by lackmaker
Clarity

[Godango 956]

3 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

There have to be 2 ozeki on the banzuke, the yokozuna technically is one of them, but we will have our 2 present ozeki also next basho. They will both have to fail to get 8 wins next basho to get to that no ozeki situation, if we take for granted that Shodai will lose all remaining bouts - he is not yet kadoban. Only that unlikely case would cause the need to promote the best sekiwake also with less than the standard 33 wins in 3 basho, no need to do that already this basho.

This situation now might ensure a promotion for Mitakeumi with 13 wins (33 total) and give him the chance to get promoted also with 12 wins. Mainichi shimbun brings titles like "on the way to ozeki", but I'll only believe it when it happens.

This is what I thought. The way I see it, Mitakeumi is insurance against the possibility of both kadoban ozaki (assuming a Shodai MK) getting losing records next tourney.

2 hours ago, lackmaker said:

 

I'd say Takanosho has a reasonable chance.

Fair point, but given his upcoming schedule and who he has lost to so far this basho, I think an 8-7 is a good result for this this time out.

Also - 11-4 @ M2 (not even jun-yusho), he'd need a bit of luck and two strong follow-ups for that to count in his favour.

Edited January 19, 2022 by Godango

[Reonito 1,335]

The nightmare scenario if they don't promote Mitakeumi this time is neither he nor either of the current Ozeki get 8 next time (and Takanosho's "run" fizzles) ... it's really hard to see who'd be the second Y/O in May.

[Sue 481]

9 hours ago, lackmaker said:

So some think if Mitakeumi loses 4 straight he still gets promoted?

If he loses 4 straight, he's on an 11-10-X run for next time, and would be targeting, ideally, a 12. 9-11-10-11 might do it, but who can say?

[Godango 956]

12 hours ago, Godango said:

I'm not even going to get into this anymore.

Famous last words. I fear I may be dragging this thread off-topic, so I've started a "Mitakeumi Ozeki Prospects" in Ozumo discussions - mods, feel free to move whatever you think is relevant there.

Edited January 20, 2022 by Godango

[Kamitsuumi 384]

4 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

There have to be 2 ozeki on the banzuke, the yokozuna technically is one of them

Has this rule been written down somewhere or actually been tested in modern times? Sure there have been yokozuna-ozeki, but I'm not aware of any promotions that were due to an immediate lack of ozeki (rather than speculated to be due to imminent lack of ozeki).

[Reonito 1,335]

7 minutes ago, Kamitsuumi said:

Has this rule been written down somewhere or actually been tested in modern times? Sure there have been yokozuna-ozeki, but I'm not aware of any promotions that were due to an immediate lack of ozeki (rather than speculated to be due to imminent lack of ozeki).

It hasn't been tested, at least not since 1958. The only time the Y/O numbers dropped as low as 2 was Hatsu 1993, and Takanohana was (uncontroversially) promoted after that basho.

[Katooshu 3,132]

So the only 2 options if there's no one to fill the spot are (1) sumo ends forever or (2) they bring back a long retired yokozuna or ozeki and insert him into the ranking, in the laugh out loud family comedy of the year