Hatsu 2022 discussions (results)

[Seiyashi 4,068]

14 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

25 minutes ago, Kaninoyama said:

Mainoumi was of a different opinion. He thought that Mitakeumi getting driven out easily by a lower-ranked rikishi just as the powers that be were to begin musing about his promotion was a bad look for the Ozeki wannabe. 

Meh. Bigger names than Mitakeumi have fallen to this "lower-ranked rikishi". He's a former komusubi with seven kinboshi to his name. 

It's interesting that tomorrow of all opponents he could have, it's Shodai that he faces. It's a double-edged sword optics-wise: beat Shodai and not only does Mitakeumi show he can stop a funk, but also that the existing ozeki are unreliable as heck. Lose to a misfiring Shodai, and two losses in a row to a lower-ranked rikishi and a misfiring ozeki will doom his ozeki bid even before talking about his yusho chances. The loss to Hokutofuji is not going to be bad in and of itself because Hokutofuji is not to be underestimated even when on track for a MK, but it's the combination with tomorrow's result that really decides Mitakeumi's promotion chances IMO.

[Gospodin 185]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

Might still be doable.

It´s not his fault, but with one ozeki out and the second struggling, the field is even weaker than usual. I think this and a loss to a maegashira will be held against Mitakeumi. I doubt he will be promoted. Also, his past record isn´t exactly an endorsement as well. He´s performing on ozeki-maintenance level for some time now, as somebody here (can´t remember who, apologies) coined it, without any outstanding results. 

Edited January 18, 2022 by Gospodin

[Hankegami 412]

8 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

It's interesting that tomorrow of all opponents he could have, it's Shodai that he faces. It's a double-edged sword optics-wise: beat Shodai and not only does Mitakeumi show he can stop a funk, but also that the existing ozeki are unreliable as heck. Lose to a misfiring Shodai, and two losses in a row to a lower-ranked rikishi and a misfiring ozeki will doom his ozeki bid even before talking about his yusho chances. The loss to Hokutofuji is not going to be bad in and of itself because Hokutofuji is not to be underestimated even when on track for a MK, but it's the combination with tomorrow's result that really decides Mitakeumi's promotion chances IMO.

I'm surprised they put Mitakeumi-Shodai on schedule already. I thought it would have taken place on day 14 or 15. It's possible the NSK wants to test Mitakeumi especially after today's loss.

It's an unpredictable match, on paper. Record favours Mitakeumi 14-12, but Shodai won against him as recently as last July. Most important, it's a crucial match for both of them. Shodai (4-6) can afford only one loss (and he has yet to face Terunofuji) without getting MK. And I am pretty sure that Mitakeumi would see this match just like us. If he loses to Shodai tomorrow, his only chance to resurrect his Ozeki bid would be defeating Terunofuji himself. But I am quite sure he cannot bring elephant rifles on the dohyo.

[Seiyashi 4,068]

Just now, Hankegami said:

But I am quite sure he cannot bring elephant rifles on the dohyo.

He needs a Jaeger for that...

[Seregost 123]

Nice whirly dirly between Kotoyusho and Churanoumi. I hope none of them threw up after...

[RabidJohn 1,644]

As has been pointed out, 1 loss to a known giantkiller like Hokutofuji doesn't mean that much other than Mitakeumi can only afford 1 more loss if he wants to make the numbers for an ozeki run. I don't understand why anyone would think 33 won't be sufficient. 
And with a likelihood of both incumbents being kadoban next time, the NSK might settle for a 12-3 if it means getting an ozeki who hardly ever goes kyujo or MK. It would be far from the 1st time they've accepted <33.

Shodai was pathetic today. Looked to me like he just gave up trying.

Otherwise some very entertaining sumo, though it was strange seeing Tochinoshin featuring in the 1st makuuchi bout. 

While I don't particularly like Hoshoryu's shows of dismay when he loses, I can't help imagine him saying "Dagnabbit!" Yosemite Sam style.

I said last basho that Abi appears to have gained better control of himself both physically and mentally. That was evidenced again today with that great evasive move followed up immediately with a winning counterattack, then he didn't conduct his KK interview with that big dumb grin he always used to have. I hope Shikoroyama-san is happy with that.

Karma came a-knocking for Ichinojo today. Flow of the match and all that, but Tamawashi kept that nodawa going until the big fella was right off the dohyo...

Edited January 18, 2022 by RabidJohn

[Jakusotsu 5,761]

27 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

I'm surprised they put Mitakeumi-Shodai on schedule already. I thought it would have taken place on day 14 or 15. It's possible the NSK wants to test Mitakeumi especially after today's loss.

Today's loss didn't happen before the schedule was up, but perhaps they wanted to grant Mitakeumi at least one bout against an Ozeki before they both pull out.

[Kaito 272]

1 hour ago, since_94 said:

There was the feeling they fed a depleted Shohozan to the ex-Ozeki. I can’t be the only one.

The crossover matches so far:

M18e vs J1e

M17w vs J1w

M17e vs J2e

M16w vs J2w

M16e vs J3e

M15w vs J3w

No conspiracy here,  just following the formula.

[Orudo Toriitorunku 12]

1 hour ago, RabidJohn said:

I said last basho that Abi appears to have gained better control of himself both physically and mentally. That was evidenced again today with that great evasive move followed up immediately with a winning counterattack, then he didn't conduct his KK interview with that big dumb grin he always used to have. I hope Shikoroyama-san is happy with that.

I fully agree. During his relegation he bulked up. As a result he has gained stability without losing to much speed. Abi used to be all about lightning attacks that either gave him a win or lost him the match. This version of Abi seems to be a lot harder to beat, while still capable of beating anyone. If he keeps his focus and stays injury free I expect him to make Ozeki within the year.

Never liked his old erratic windmill style much, but the new concentrated Abi is a joy to behold.

[Kintamayama 44,275]

And I think if Mitakeumi recovers and will be 11-1 together with Terunofuji and Shoudai heading for makekoshi, they may forego custom and schedule the Mitakeumi - Terunofuji bout for senshuraku. The decision has to be made right after day 12.

Edited January 18, 2022 by Kintamayama

[lackmaker 428]

I'd be pleased to be facing Shodai next if I was Mitakeumi. The ozeki is in no good form and it's a real chance to boost the confidence and get back on track.

[Godango 956]

It's been said, but it bears repeating; the very real prospect of two kadoban ozeki, with only one yokozuna on the banzuke, surely means Mitakeumi only needs 12. Beating Shodai is still practically a must, not just for the optics but because Mitakeumi needs Shodai MK nearly as much as he needs the win for his tally. 

[Morty 1,480]

24 minutes ago, lackmaker said:

I'd be pleased to be facing Shodai next if I was Mitakeumi. The ozeki is in no good form and it's a real chance to boost the confidence and get back on track.

Shodai looked like a completely broken man after that loss today. He has lost his mojo and doesn't know how to get it back. I feel really sorry for him, he seems like a nice guy. This version of Mitakeumi should smoke him.

[Sakura 1,465]

2 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Today's loss didn't happen before the schedule was up, but perhaps they wanted to grant Mitakeumi at least one bout against an Ozeki before they both pull out.

Actually, it was perfectly standard scheduling. It would have have happened that way even if Shodai had a decent score.

[Rocks 1,805]

39 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

And t think if Mitakeumi recovers and will be 11-1 together with Terunofuji and Shoudai heading for makekoshi, they may forego custom and schedule the Mitakeumi - Terunofuji bout for senshuraku. The decision has to be made right after day 12.

Yup.  Did anyone think Shodai would beat Takanosho? It would be interesting to know the pick numbers in Toto. They figured Shodai was likely to lose and he would be 4-6. I may be wrong but I don't think Shodai has come back to KK from 4-6 in his whole career.  He gives up. They figured get his match with Mitakeumi over early and keep it from stinking up the end of the basho. I think Mitakeumi wins easy tomorrow. 

[Rocks 1,805]

33 minutes ago, Godango said:

It's been said, but it bears repeating; the very real prospect of two kadoban ozeki, with only one yokozuna on the banzuke, surely means Mitakeumi only needs 12. Beating Shodai is still practically a must, not just for the optics but because Mitakeumi needs Shodai MK nearly as much as he needs the win for his tally. 

12 is a lock for promotion IMO. Maybe even 11 if he's sole jun-yusho. Ozeki rank at this point is too fragile to get picky. Mitakeumi has been Sanyaku for 5 years now.  Once he's an Ozeki he might be kadoban once, rarely twice, a year. They need that anchor. 

[Rocks 1,805]

30 minutes ago, Sakura said:

Actually, it was perfectly standard scheduling. It would have have happened that way even if Shodai had a decent score.

I'll bow to your scheduling knowledge but I don't think it would have if Shodai had a decent record. That might be standard but Mitakeumi basically became 2nd Ozeki the moment Takakeisho dropped out. It would be standard for Terunofuji to face Shodai Day 15 but I think you might just see that match on Day 12. They need quality opponents for Terunofuji, either by rank or record, and I think they get him against Shodai before Shodai goes MK.

[dingo 1,133]

Even if Mitakeumi crumbles in the next bouts he still has the next basho as a cushion for his Ozeki run. Of course double digits are never guaranteed but in the worst case both ozeki might be demoted next time. So even if Mitakeumi doesn't get promotable numbers this time, he still has a very good shot next basho. 

[Seiyashi 4,068]

39 minutes ago, Rocks said:

1 hour ago, Sakura said:

Actually, it was perfectly standard scheduling. It would have have happened that way even if Shodai had a decent score.

I'll bow to your scheduling knowledge but I don't think it would have if Shodai had a decent record. That might be standard but Mitakeumi basically became 2nd Ozeki the moment Takakeisho dropped out. It would be standard for Terunofuji to face Shodai Day 15 but I think you might just see that match on Day 12. They need quality opponents for Terunofuji, either by rank or record, and I think they get him against Shodai before Shodai goes MK.

No, technically Mitakeumi stayed S1E because Teru and Shodai would have taken YOE/W respectively, in a 6-man bare minimum sanyaku. Takakeisho was YW by dint of being second man on the banzuke, placing Shodai in an odd haridashi spot (or Mitakeumi being 2nd Ozeki in your schema), but once he pulled out the scheduling involved a lot less mental gymnastics. For starters, assuming Shodai doesn't pull out, the kore yori sanyaku would actually have been the komusubi, sekiwake, and Y/O matchups as it should be.

If Shodai is on course for kadoban before senshuraku I don't know if he'll still be Terunofuji's opponent, or if Mitakeumi will be "promoted" to the ozeki bout on senshuraku in lieu of Shodai if Mitakeumi is still in contention by then. But if the shimpan think that it's justified to put Mitakeumi in the musubi on senshuraku, that same train of thought is likely to get him promoted.

Edited January 18, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Sakura 1,465]

56 minutes ago, Rocks said:

I'll bow to your scheduling knowledge but I don't think it would have if Shodai had a decent record. That might be standard but Mitakeumi basically became 2nd Ozeki the moment Takakeisho dropped out. It would be standard for Terunofuji to face Shodai Day 15 but I think you might just see that match on Day 12. They need quality opponents for Terunofuji, either by rank or record, and I think they get him against Shodai before Shodai goes MK.

As soon as Takakeisho went out, there really was only one way the intra-sanyaku bouts were going, all because of Terunofuji's scheduling, and that meant that Shodai-Mitakeumi had to happen day 11, regardless.

[Jakusotsu 5,761]

4 hours ago, Rocks said:

Did anyone think Shodai would beat Takanosho? It would be interesting to know the pick numbers in Toto.

32-6-44

[Jakusotsu 5,761]

2 hours ago, Sakura said:

As soon as Takakeisho went out, there really was only one way the intra-sanyaku bouts were going, all because of Terunofuji's scheduling, and that meant that Shodai-Mitakeumi had to happen day 11, regardless.

And yet I was hoping they would postpone Terunofuji's final Maegashira matchup (i.e. giving him Meisei on day 11) to make him available for Abi or Takarafuji if necessary without some major skippings like last basho.

[Gurowake 3,886]

3 hours ago, Sakura said:

As soon as Takakeisho went out, there really was only one way the intra-sanyaku bouts were going, all because of Terunofuji's scheduling, and that meant that Shodai-Mitakeumi had to happen day 11, regardless.

That's not quite true.  They could have had Terunofuji vs. Meisei earlier instead of later.  

7 hours ago, Hankegami said:

I'm surprised they put Mitakeumi-Shodai on schedule already. I thought it would have taken place on day 14 or 15.

The general, no exceptional circumstances, scheduling has all Y v Y matches as late as possible, with O v Y matches right before them, and Y v S and O v O matches just before them, and Y v K, O v S just before them, etc.  That means you would have Terunofuji-Shodai on 15, Terunofuji-Mitakeumi on 14, Terunofuji-Takanosho on 13, and then have a choice between Meisei-Terunofuji and Shodai-Mitakeumi on 12.  However, in order for the latter to happen on 12, they'd have to have done Meisei-Terunofuji on a previous day, and while they could have done it day 11, with them having already done Shodai-Takanosho Day 10, it stood to reason that Shodai-MItakeumi was more likely for Day 11, not breaking the pattern of whether SvO or YvK was higher priority. 

Connected with this, they will have 3 intrasanyaku matches on Day 15 planned to go with the kore yori sanyaku soroibumi ceremony, and then spread the remaining matches evenly on the rest of the days (including Day 15 if there's enough), which meant after Takakeisho's withdrawal there was only 1 such match each day.  That part's not relevant for why they couldn't do Shodai-Mitakeumi 14 or 15 (they were already planned to be scheduled against someone else), but it might be helpful in the future to figure out why the schedule looks the way it does.

Edited January 18, 2022 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 3,886]

That said, I won't be surprised for them to take the circumstances of this basho and do Terunofuji-MItakeumi on Day 15.  They already broke the unwritten rule of the highest ranked rikishi fighting in the last match of the tournament back when Terunofuji was Komusubi, simply to get the relevant match on the last day.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see them skip Terunofuji-Shodai to put Terunofuji against Abi or Takarafuji, not only for the Yusho race's sake, but because they want to do as much as they can to get Shodai his KK that's not totally obviously done for just that purpose.  WIth the pattern as I mentioned in my previous post, there wasn't a way to skip Shodai-Mitakeumi without arousing suspicion, since there are still plenty of days left for the maegashira to lose to other people.

Edited January 18, 2022 by Gurowake

[Thorbjarn 214]

It took him 10 days, but Mitakeumi finally made it to Weak 2. I hope he bounces back, but that was a bad loss, tbh. 

It was fun while it lasted, but we will see how he deals with a first setback. 

Lots of exciting bouts once more! Tournament is fun to watch.