Sign in to follow this  
Asashosakari

Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Kyushu 2021

Recommended Posts

The ballot for Kyushu basho:

 1. Terunofuji     15  [score?]
 2. Meisei          8  [score?]
 3. Hagiwara        8*
 4. Hokuseiho       6*
 5. Kotoyusho       6
 6. Awanokuni       6
 7. Mitakeumi       5  [score?]
 8. Kaisho          5
 9. Hiradoumi       5
10. Otsuji          5
11. Atamifuji       5*
12. Abi             4
13. Asanowaka       4

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

  • For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.
  • For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

(For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 13 guys up there and the further 7 rikishi (4 'veterans', 1 newcomer from maezumo + tsukedashi Kanno and Nishikawawho are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 20. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 12 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Terunofuji.

Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order).

Final tie-breaker: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi noon JST.

-----

Simplified entry template:

1. Terunofuji W-L
2. Meisei W-L
3. Hagiwara KKMK
4. Hokuseiho KKMK
5. Kotoyusho KKMK
6. Awanokuni KKMK
7. Mitakeumi W-L
8. Kaisho KKMK
9. Hiradoumi KKMK
10.Otsuji KKMK
11. Atamifuji KKMK
12. Abi KKMK
13. Asanowaka KKMK

TB xx

-----

Good luck!

Edited by Asashosakari

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My most profuse apologies - the Aki results will also be going up shortly. I hope you'll still be willing to play despite this major hiccup in the proceedings.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1. Terunofuji 12-3
2. Meisei 8-7
3. Hagiwara KK
4. Hokuseiho KK
5. Kotoyusho KK
6. Awanokuni KK
7. Mitakeumi 8-7
8. Kaisho KK
9. Hiradoumi KK
10.Otsuji KK
11. Atamifuji KK
12. Abi KK
13. Asanowaka KK

TB 13

-----

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

. Terunofuji 13-2
2. Meisei MK
3. Hagiwara MK
4. Hokuseiho KK
5. Kotoyusho MK
6. Awanokuni KK
7. Mitakeumi 10-5
8. Kaisho KK
9. Hiradoumi KK
10.Otsuji MK
11. Atamifuji KK
12. Abi KK
13. Asanowaka MK

 TB 12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1. Terunofuji KK 12-3
2. Meisei 7-8
3. Hagiwara MK
4. Hokuseiho KK
5. Kotoyusho KK
6. Awanokuni MK
7. Mitakeumi 8-7
8. Kaisho MK
9. Hiradoumi MK
10.Otsuji MK
11. Atamifuji KK
12. Abi KK
13. Asanowaka KK

TB 9

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

1. Terunofuji 13-2
2. Meisei 8-7
3. Hagiwara MK
4. Hokuseiho MK
5. Kotoyusho KK
6. Awanokuni MK
7. Mitakeumi 9-6
8. Kaisho KK
9. Hiradoumi KK
10.Otsuji KK
11. Atamifuji MK
12. Abi KK
13. Asanowaka MK

TB 12

-----

Good luck!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LKS Nov 21

 

1. Terunofuji 12

2. Meisei 8

3. Hagiwara kk

4. Hokuseiho KK

5. Kotoyusho KK

6. Awanokuni MK

7. Mitakeumi 8

8. Kaisho KK

9. Hiradoumi MK

10.Otsuji MK

11. Atamifuji KK

12. Abi KK

13. Asanowaka MK


TB 12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 1. Terunofuji       13
 2. Meisei                8
 3. Hagiwara        MK
 4. Hokuseiho       KK
 5. Kotoyusho       MK
 6. Awanokuni       KK
 7. Mitakeumi          9
 8. Kaisho              KK
 9. Hiradoumi        MK
10. Otsuji               KK
11. Atamifuji         KK
12. Abi                   KK
13. Asanowaka    KK

TB: 14

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Was a tad worried we wouldn't have Long Kachikoshi streaks for Kyushu, really glad it's back, thank you @Asashosakari!

1. Terunofuji 13-2
2. Meisei 7-8
3. Hagiwara KK
4. Hokuseiho KK
5. Kotoyusho MK
6. Awanokuni KK
7. Mitakeumi 9-6
8. Kaisho MK
9. Hiradoumi KK
10.Otsuji MK
11. Atamifuji KK
12. Abi KK
13. Asanowaka KK

TB 12

Edited by Hakuryuho

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The fastest entry I ever made for LKK . I'll finish last or....

1. Terunofuji 13-2
2. Meisei 8-7
3. Hagiwara KK
4. Hokuseiho KK
5. Kotoyusho MK
6. Awanokuni MK
7. Mitakeumi 9-6
8. Kaisho KK
9. Hiradoumi KK
10.Otsuji MK
11. Atamifuji KK
12. Abi KK
13. Asanowaka MK

TB 11

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1. Terunofuji 12-3
2. Meisei MK
3. Hagiwara KK
4. Hokuseiho KK
5. Kotoyusho MK
6. Awanokuni MK
7. Mitakeumi 9-6
8. Kaisho KK
9. Hiradoumi MK
10.Otsuji MK
11. Atamifuji KK
12. Abi KK
13. Asanowaka MK

TB 13

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1. Terunofuji 14-1
2. Meisei 8-7
3. Hagiwara KK
4. Hokuseiho KK
5. Kotoyusho KK
6. Awanokuni MK
7. Mitakeumi 9-6
8. Kaisho KK
9. Hiradoumi KK
10.Otsuji KK
11. Atamifuji KK
12. Abi KK
13. Asanowaka MK

TB 12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 1. Terunofuji     13-2
 2. Meisei         MK
 3. Hagiwara        MK
 4. Hokuseiho       KK
 5. Kotoyusho       MK
6. 
Awanokuni       MK
 7. Mitakeumi       9-6
 8. Kaisho          MK
9. Hiradoumi       MK
10. Otsuji          MK
11. Atamifuji       KK
12. Abi             KK
13. Asanowaka       MK

TB: 8

Edited by Rocks
Changed pick 13 and TB.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1. Terunofuji 13-2
2. Meisei 8-7
3. Hagiwara KK
4. Hokuseiho KK
5. Kotoyusho KK
6. Awanokuni MK
7. Mitakeumi 9-6
8. Kaisho KK
9. Hiradoumi KK
10.Otsuji MK
11. Atamifuji MK
12. Abi KKMK
13. Asanowaka KKMK

TB 12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1. Terunofuji                    13
2. Meisei                            8
3. Hagiwara                             KK
4. Hokuseiho                           KK
5. Kotoyusho                                   MK
6. Awanokuni                                  MK
7. Mitakeumi                    9
8. Kaisho                                         MK
9. Hiradoumi                           KK
10.Otsuji                                          MK
11. Atamifuji                           KK
12. Abi                                     KK
13. Asanowaka                              MK

TB 11

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

13 Terunofuji
8 Meisei
- Hagiwara
+ Hokuseiho
- Kotoyusho
- Awanokuni
9 Mitakeumi
- Kaisho
+ Hiradoumi
- Otsuji
+ Atamifuji
+ Abi
+ Asanowaka

TB 12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The selection stats for Kyushu basho:

Player Teru Meisei Hagi Hoku Koto Awano Mita Kaisho Hirado Otsuji Atami Abi Asano   TB   Cons
Jejima - 12-3 + 8-7 + + + + - 8-7 + + + + + + 13 1.86
ryafuji + 13-2 - MK - + - + + 10-5 + + - + + - 12 1.44
Tsuchinoninjin - 12-3 - MK - + + - - 8-7 - - - + + + 9 1.89
Sakura + 13-2 + 8-7 - - + - + 9-6 + + + - + - 12 1.87
Ryoshishokunin - 12-3 + 8-7 + + + - - 8-7 + - - + + - 12 1.63
Profomisakari + 13-2 + 8-7 - + - + + 9-6 + - + + + + 14 1.65
Hakuryuho + 13-2 - MK + + - + + 9-6 - + - + + + 12 1.56
Athenayama + 13-2 + 8-7 + + - - + 9-6 + + - + + - 11 1.10
WAKATAKE - 12-3 - MK + + - - + 9-6 + - - + + - 13 1.49
Holleshoryu + 14-1 + 8-7 + + + - + 9-6 + + + + + - 12 1.34
Rocks + 13-2 - MK - + - - + 9-6 - - - + + - 8 1.49
Tameiki + 13-2 + 8-7 + + + - + 9-6 + + - -     12  
chishafuwaku + 13-2 + 8-7 + + - - + 9-6 - + - + + - 11 1.22
Asashosakari + 13-2 + 8-7 - + - - + 9-6 - + - + + + 12 1.37
  10:4 9:5 8:6 13:1 6:8 4:10 11:3 9:5 9:5 4:10 12:2 13:0 5:8    
Results + - - - + - + - - - + + +    


Unfortunately Tameiki will have to play two slots short due to invalid picks.

Yokozuna Terunofuji's target record will be 13-2 this time around, one win down from Aki, while the sekiwake pair are going for the same records again: Mitakeumi 9-6 and Meisei 8-7.

Edited by Asashosakari
Results added
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 7

The earliest result was posted off-ballot by Tomokaze, whose continued comeback will thus become part of LKS next year.

Day 8

Another nakabi KK for Terunofuji, while sekitori newcomer Hokuseiho's makekoshi became official in the wake of his Day 2 withdrawal. The first point of the basho (and only one of the day) was scored by Sakura for that.

Day 9

Mitakeumi achieved another early KK by a sanyaku-ranked rikishi, leaving him just one win away from his target record already. Top division returnee Abi also moved up to kachikoshi, in his case enough to score for LKS - however irrelevant in this basho as nobody expected differently.

In addition a second kyujo rikishi found himself MK with Hagiwara, withdrawn after his second bout. This was a slight minority prediction.

Not joining the game for January is teenage prospect Nabatame who has missed out on a 5th straight KK for already the second time in his young career (4 KK, 1 MK, 4 KK, 1 MK).

The early standings:
 

Day 9:
3/13 Decisions, TB 4-17
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Sakura 3 12
2 Asashosakari 2 12
2 ryafuji 2 12
2 Tsuchinoninjin 2 9
5 Rocks 2 8
6 Profomisakari 2 14
7 Athenayama 1 11
7 chishafuwaku 1 11
9 Hakuryuho 1 12
9 Holleshoryu 1 12
9 Ryoshishokunin 1 12
12 Jejima 1 13
12 WAKATAKE 1 13
14 Tameiki 0 12

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 10

Two top prospects went opposite ways in the makushita joi on this day: Atamifuji improved to 4-1 to run his debut KK streak to a full year, while Otsuji's streak has ended at 5 basho.

Both results were highly expected by us, and no less than nine entrants picked up both points for it. The erstwhile leader was the only player to whiff on both, though:
 

Day 10:
5/13 Decisions, TB 5-16
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Asashosakari 4 12
1 ryafuji 4 12
1 Tsuchinoninjin 4 9
4 Rocks 4 8
5 Athenayama 3 11
5 chishafuwaku 3 11
7 Hakuryuho 3 12
7 Ryoshishokunin 3 12
7 Sakura 3 12
10 WAKATAKE 3 13
11 Profomisakari 3 14
12 Holleshoryu 2 12
13 Jejima 2 13
14 Tameiki 1 12

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 11

A plethora of new results today: Mitakeumi picked up the target-clinching 9th win, his fastest 9-win score in almost two years. The other results were posted in and around juryo: Kaisho's bid for a possible top division debut ended in makekoshi today, while this basho's juryo rookie Asanowaka and next basho's debutant Kotoyusho achieved their respective 5th and 7th KK.

This foursome of results led to somewhat depressed scoring as only Mitakeumi's outcome saw a majority vote. Three players did come away with 3 points, the lowest score was 1 point by four players, with the remaining half of the field in between at 2 points.

The leading quartet was cut in half:
 

Day 11:
9/13 Decisions, TB 7-15
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Asashosakari 7 12
2 Tsuchinoninjin 7 9
3 Hakuryuho 6 12
4 Rocks 6 8
5 chishafuwaku 5 11
6 ryafuji 5 12
6 Sakura 5 12
8 Profomisakari 5 14
9 Athenayama 4 11
10 Holleshoryu 4 12
10 Ryoshishokunin 4 12
12 Jejima 4 13
12 WAKATAKE 4 13
14 Tameiki 3 12


The yusho race is largely down to the two leaders and two pursuers. Profomisakari is still in as contender #5, but will need to hit a highly special combination of results to outpace the frontrunners.

Edited by Asashosakari

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 12 only had marginal relevance to LKS with three further rikishi deciding whether or not they're joining the ballot, but no points being scored. We get to welcome Kaishinmaru and Tanji to the game for January, while collegiate prospect Nishikawa was absent following his Day 9 fusenpai and can no longer achieve kachikoshi.

Day 13

And the backuppers are done with the highest- and lowest-ranked of them deciding their fates today, both in positive fashion - Kanno and Nagata are also joining the next ballot. More importantly though we received resolution of half the remaining ballot slots - yusho leader Terunofuji collected his 13th win to not only remain unbeaten but also secure his LKS target, while sekiwake Meisei's run of KKs is over after eight successful tournaments.

A lot more crowded at the top now:
 

Day 13:
11/13 Decisions, TB 11-13
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Asashosakari 8 12
1 Hakuryuho 8 12
3 Rocks 8 8
3 Tsuchinoninjin 8 9
5 ryafuji 7 12
6 Sakura 6 12
7 chishafuwaku 6 11
8 Profomisakari 6 14
9 Holleshoryu 5 12
10 Athenayama 5 11
10 WAKATAKE 5 13
12 Ryoshishokunin 4 12
12 Tameiki 4 12
14 Jejima 4 13


Meisei's loss eliminated Profomisakari's sole path to the yusho, but it also removed a lot of Asashosakari's options, while Terunofuji's victory did the same to Tsuchinoninjin - and in fact the latter is out altogether because of it: While it's still possible for Tsuchinoninjin to tie for the most points, his wrong prediction on Terunofuji will make him fail in the ensuing tie-break if it comes to that.

Altogether three players can still win, depending on the final results of Hiradoumi (currently 7-6) and Awanokuni (3-3):

  • KK for Hiradoumi and MK for Awanokuni are Asashosakari's predictions and would give him an outright victory.
  • MK for both was predicted by Rocks and Tsuchinoninjin and would see the former prevail over the latter on a bracket tie-breaker.
  • KK for both was Hakuryuho's entry and would be an outright victory for him.
  • MK for Hiradoumi and KK for Awanokuni would mean one point for everybody bar Asashosakari for a three-way tie atop, with Hakuryuho then hitting the TB score on the nose at 12 to take the yusho that way. The TB hit is crucial in this scenario as a bracket comparison would have gone Rocks' way.
Edited by Asashosakari

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 14

Youngster Awanokuni was unable to complete a 7th straight KK, which eliminated Hakuryuho from LKS contention. Hiradoumi then was defeated in juryo and dropped to 7-7, which would have taken our yusho decision to the final day - if he hadn't suffered an injury during the loss and been forced to withdraw. With KK now impossible for him we're already done here after all. Congratulations to Rocks, who wins his second LKS yusho after Hatsu 2020. Tsuchinoninjin finishes doten runner-up, having lost the bracket playoff on the first slot.

The final standings:
 

Day 15:
13/13 Decisions, TB 11
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Rocks 10 8
2 Tsuchinoninjin 10 9
3 Asashosakari 9 12
4 Hakuryuho 8 12
5 chishafuwaku 7 11
6 Profomisakari 7 14
6 ryafuji 7 12
6 Sakura 7 12
6 WAKATAKE 7 13
10 Athenayama 6 11
11 Holleshoryu 6 12
11 Ryoshishokunin 6 12
13 Tameiki 5 12
14 Jejima 4 13


Administrivia tomorrow, as the lineup for Hatsu basho isn't quite finalized yet.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Woohoo! Thanks for the game! (Clappingwildly...)(Clappingwildly...)(Clappingwildly...)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The new ballot for Hatsu 2022:

 1. Terunofuji     16
    Meisei          8
    Hagiwara        8*
    Hokuseiho       6*
 2. Kotoyusho       7
    Awanokuni       6
 3. Mitakeumi       6
    Kaisho          5
    Hiradoumi       5
    Otsuji          5
 4. Atamifuji       6*
 5. Abi             5
 6. Asanowaka       5
 7. Kanno           5*
 8. Tomokaze        5
 9. Kaishinmaru     5
10. Tanji           5
11. Nagata          5*
---
12. Shodai          4
13. Bushozan        4

So exactly the same setup again, with 13 ballot rikishi in total including 3 sanyaku (Shodai replacing Meisei) and 2 additional sekitori on 4-KK streaks. Bushozan got in at the last minute having clinched his KK only on senshuraku.

On a side note, there's a spectacularly low number of rikishi on streaks of 3 KK right now, namely just 15. After Aki basho there were 46... We may be feeling the effects of that in a couple more tournaments.

Edited by Asashosakari

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this