Sakura

Promotion/Demotion/Yusho Discussion Aki 2021

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2 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Sitting over my GTB draft, I'm rather clueless whether Asanoyama or Hokutofuji will be ranked higher.

And where will they be ranked relative to Abi? That whole M10-M15 area is kind of a mess.

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5 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Sitting over my GTB draft, I'm rather clueless whether Asanoyama or Hokutofuji will be ranked higher.

They will occupy the same slot by merging into singular being called Asanofuji.

Thankfully this also opens up another slot in Juryo (as long as the merge is complete by Wednesday noon time)

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5 hours ago, Reonito said:
7 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Sitting over my GTB draft, I'm rather clueless whether Asanoyama or Hokutofuji will be ranked higher.

And where will they be ranked relative to Abi? That whole M10-M15 area is kind of a mess.

I have the order as Hokutofuji, Abi, Asanoyama. Asanoyama may get a more than the standard demotion for being a very naughty boy. In the same section of the banzuke you have the "frozen" Ishiura which makes things even trickier.

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3 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

I have the order as Hokutofuji, Abi, Asanoyama. Asanoyama may get a more than the standard demotion for being a very naughty boy. In the same section of the banzuke you have the "frozen" Ishiura which makes things even trickier.

Abi has already sinned, and is atoning for them.  Asanoyama is still descending the long staircase to Sumo Purgatory, so must defer to a recovering sinner.  I checked with the Pope; he's cool with it, too.  I guess Ishiura is in Limbo or sumpin'.

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On 28/09/2021 at 08:36, Jakusotsu said:

Sitting over my GTB draft, I'm rather clueless whether Asanoyama or Hokutofuji will be ranked higher.

I'm wondering if how they treated him as basically nonexistent at Aki and promoted Meisei anyway if they don't just drop him right to the last makuuchi slot. He is going to spend 1 more basho there and 1 in Juryo no matter where he ends up so it doesn't matter in the end where he ends up. Maybe?

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12 hours ago, Rocks said:

He is going to spend 1 more basho there and 1 in Juryo no matter where he ends up so it doesn't matter in the end where he ends up. Maybe?

Do you think they will be arbitrary about where they put him?  That doesn't seem like them.

I'm sure your not saying that they'll go S2e - M1w - J12e, but they must have historical examples to help work this out.

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19 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Do you think they will be arbitrary about where they put him?  That doesn't seem like them.

I'm sure your not saying that they'll go S2e - M1w - J12e, but they must have historical examples to help work this out.

Arbitrary, no. I meant maybe put him at M18 in November and J15 in January. 

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13 hours ago, Rocks said:

I'm wondering if how they treated him as basically nonexistent at Aki and promoted Meisei anyway if they don't just drop him right to the last makuuchi slot. He is going to spend 1 more basho there and 1 in Juryo no matter where he ends up so it doesn't matter in the end where he ends up. Maybe?

Well he has to go *somewhere*.  I see no reason why he wouldn't just go somewhere around M8-12 like other kyujo Sekiwake.  Perhaps he'll get dropped a little further than he might otherwise have been as punishment, but they really haven't made anything extreme in the suspension cases of others.  It's easy to create another Sekiwake slot and rank everyone else as though he's not there.  You can't really do that with maegashira.  They're numbered in order they appear on the banzuke.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Rocks said:

Arbitrary, no. I meant maybe put him at M18 in November and J15 in January. 

So you're saying put 18 maegashira on the east and 16 on the west?  Then 15 Juryo on the east and 13 on the west in January?

Edited by Gurowake

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Just now, Gurowake said:

So you're saying put 18 maegashira on the east and 16 on the west?  Then 15 Juryo on the east and 13 on the west in January?

I just messed up the numbers. Whichever place ends up the last place in each division.

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14 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

So you're saying put 18 maegashira on the east and 16 on the west?  Then 15 Juryo on the east and 13 on the west in January?

 

12 minutes ago, Rocks said:

I just messed up the numbers. Whichever place ends up the last place in each division.

From where Asanoyama is now, the db is pretty straightforward about what a "normal" string of kyujo would produce; latest results:

S1e 0-0-15 M11e (Myogiryu 2014.09)

M11e 0-0-15 J7w (Yoshikaze 2019.07)

J7w 0-0-15 M6e (Chiyonokuni 2019.05)

M6e 0-0-7 Ms46w (Chiyonokuni 2019.07); Terunofuji 2018.07 = Ms47e

Ms46w 0-0-7 Sd26w (Tokitenku 2016.05)

Sd26w 0-0-7 Sd86w (4 rikishi).

There isn't much variation in these numbers unless you go back to the 90's.

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13 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

 

From where Asanoyama is now, the db is pretty straightforward about what a "normal" string of kyujo would produce; latest results:

S1e 0-0-15 M11e (Myogiryu 2014.09)

M11e 0-0-15 J7w (Yoshikaze 2019.07)

J7w 0-0-15 M6e (Chiyonokuni 2019.05)

M6e 0-0-7 Ms46w (Chiyonokuni 2019.07); Terunofuji 2018.07 = Ms47e

Ms46w 0-0-7 Sd26w (Tokitenku 2016.05)

Sd26w 0-0-7 Sd86w (4 rikishi).

There isn't much variation in these numbers unless you go back to the 90's.

If Abi is any guide, he got dropped from M5e to M14w after a 3-4-8 record, which is a rank or two harsher than GTB players expected (Okinoumi went M5w 3-12 -> M12w earlier this year) though not unprecedented. And it seemed like he ended up a tad lower than he should have by the numbers on his subsequent demotions as well. But nothing extreme.

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1 minute ago, Reonito said:

If Abi is any guide, he got dropped from M5e to M14w after a 3-4-8 record, which is a rank or two harsher than GTB players expected (Okinoumi went M5w 3-12 -> M12w earlier this year) though not unprecedented. And it seemed like he ended up a tad lower than he should have by the numbers on his subsequent demotions as well. But nothing extreme.

I'd chalk that up to him being assigned last place in every "banzuke luck" decision, and I'd expect the same for Asanoyama. S1e -> M11e sounds appropriate, until you have half a dozen folks all landing around M11e from their records. Victimizing Asanoyama a bit more in that case, instead of underpromoting or overdemoting someone who'll actually be competing in the next several basho, is the right move.

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On 29/09/2021 at 04:20, Tigerboy1966 said:
On 28/09/2021 at 23:04, Reonito said:
On 28/09/2021 at 20:36, Jakusotsu said:

Sitting over my GTB draft, I'm rather clueless whether Asanoyama or Hokutofuji will be ranked higher.

And where will they be ranked relative to Abi? That whole M10-M15 area is kind of a mess.

I have the order as Hokutofuji, Abi, Asanoyama. Asanoyama may get a more than the standard demotion for being a very naughty boy. In the same section of the banzuke you have the "frozen" Ishiura which makes things even trickier.

My mess is more in the M7-M8 area. Past that it's easy to have relatively lenient half-rank movements for all marginal KK/MKs. I have Hokutofuji as a beneficiary of significant banzuke luck due to insufficient KKs in the lower half of the banzuke, so he's not falling quite as far as 13 losses would usually have him; Asanoyama is just above COVID-kyujo Ishiura for me, and Abi comes in behind Chiyonokuni with the "makuuchi KK > juryo KK" rule.

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17 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Abi comes in behind Chiyonokuni with the "makuuchi KK > juryo KK" rule.

The "rule" they broke last basho?

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10 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Abi comes in behind Chiyonokuni with the "makuuchi KK > juryo KK" rule.

Snap! But remember that a strict interpretation of the guideline would put him behind Chiyomaru.

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2 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Snap! But remember that a strict interpretation of the guideline would put him behind Chiyomaru.

And therein lies the rule breaking XD

13 hours ago, Reonito said:

The "rule" they broke last basho?

 

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