Sakura

Promotion/Demotion/Yusho Discussion Aki 2021

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1 hour ago, Reonito said:

Jokoryu needs to hope for a Kyokushuho loss

Kyokushuho will never leave Juryo. Ever.

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28 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Kyokushuho will never leave Juryo. Ever.

Like Mitoryu?

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Day 14 (resultstext-only results)

12-2 Yw Terunofuji

11-3 M10w Myogiryu

Yusho and Sanyaku race

There is a debate elsewhere on the forum as to whether or not Takakeisho was trying yotsu-sumo or just got pulled into a grip. Whatever he was doing, it didn't work, as he was rolled over quite decisively by Terunofuji. The Yokozuna remained the sole leader at the end of the day. However, no Day 14 Yusho for him thanks to Myogiryu upsetting a lacklustre Shodai. The other challengers faced much stiffer competition. Onosho only has himself to blame for Meisei's henka. He was too low and wasn't looking at his opponent. Endo was defeated by a determined Ichinojo. Okinoumi was able to beat week-two-Mitakeumi, but was dismissed from the Yusho race after Terunofuji won later in the day.

Those Sanyaku results mean that Ichinojo will retain at least a Komusubi slot, as will Meisei. A win on the final day will see him retain his Sekiwake rank. That means we're confirmed to have just one slot open. At the moment Kiribayama, Daieisho and Onosho are nominally tied for the first place in that race, but that can change a lot, depending on Day 15 results.

Terunofuji faces Shodai on senshuraku. If he wins then the cup is his. The cup is also his if Myogiryu loses his tough matchup to Meisei. Mitakeumi and Takakeisho still exist, and have been paired against each other. 

 

  ky-COVID Hakuho Y Terunofuji 12-2  
  8-6 Shodai O Takakeisho 8-6  
  8-6 Mitakeumi S Meisei 7-7  
(x) susp Asanoyama S    
(x) 4-8-1 Takayasu K Ichinojo 8-6  
             
      M1 Takanosho 7-7  
      M2 Kiribayama 8-6  
  8-6 Wakatakakage M3      
      M4 Daieisho 9-5  
      M5 Takarafuji 7-7 (x)
      M6 Onosho 10-4  
      M7      
  10-4 Okinoumi M8      
      M9      
      M10 Myogiryu 11-3  
(x) 10-4 Endo M11      



Makuuchi-Juryo 

Further losses by Ichiyamamoto and Chiyonoo condemned to the M15 pair to Juryo, with banzuke luck not even an option now. Two of the three slots in Makuuchi are spoken for by Abi and Sadanoumi, two Makuuchi veterans. At the moment, Akua has the lead for the third slot, but he could be overtaken by Shohozan if Shohozan wins and Akua loses. Interestingly, Shohozan has been paired against Tsurugisho for Day 15. Tsurugisho needs one more win to stay in Makuuchi and Shohozan one more to return, so this seems to be an exchange bout. Such a scheduling arrangement should secure Akua a Makuuchi return. Either Shohozan will lose and Akua will be ahead of him in the queue, or Shohozan will win creating a fourth slot and room for both of them.

Daiamami is also up in Makuuchi, facing Kaisei. This can also be considered an exchange bout. Kaisei still needs the one win for safety. Daiamami needs some banzuke luck, but an 8-7 promotion from J2 is not uncommon. The scheduling means that everyone else who needed banzuke luck is not going to get it.

 

  ky-COVID Ishiura M12      
      M13 Tsurugisho 5-9 (1)
(1) 5-9 Kaisei M14      
(x) 4-10 Ichiyamamoto M15 Chiyonoo 4-10 (x)
      M16 Tokushoryu 3-10 (x)
      M17      
             
      J1 Akua 8-5 (o)
(~) 7-7 Daiamami J2      
(x) 7-7 Wakamotoharu J3 Sadanoumi 10-4 (o)
(1) 9-5 Shohozan J4      
(o) 12-2 Abi J5 Bushozan 8-6 (x)
      J6      
(x) 8-6 Daishomaru J7      
      J8      
(x) 10-4 Nishikifuji J9    
      J10 Nishikigi 10-4 (x)

 



Juryo - Makushita

Struggling Hakuyozan was able to secure his sekitori status with an oshidashi win over Yago. Earlier, there were a number of cross-divisional bouts that had promotion/demotion implications. First up, Churanoumi beat Kotokuzan. This ensured the Juryo man's eighth win to stay in the division. A win for Kotokuzan would have been his fifth and a guaranteed slot in Juryo. He had to settle for kachi-koshi and to wait on other results. Next up was Kyokushuho against Jokoryu. This time the Makushitan won. This leaves Kyokushuho still needing one more for safety and gives Jokoryu a kachi-koshi. Finally, Tohakuryu beat Chiyoarashi. This secured the Tamanoi-beya rikishi his sekitori status, and condemned Chiyoarashi to a make-koshi and a drop in Makushita. It also meant that Kotokuzan would be secure in the third promotion slot.

The only person left on the bubble is Kyokushuho. If he wins, he stays. If he loses, he may give up his slot to Jokoryu, but the committee may decide a 6-9 J12 is better than a 4-3 Ms4.

Kotoyusho goes for kachi-koshi against Asashiyu, but barring some retirements, shouldn't be promoted this time around even with a win.

 

      J6 Hakuyozan 4-10 (o)
      J7 Tohakuryu 4-10 (o)
      J8      
      J9 Takagenji removed (x)
      J10      
  ky-COVID Enho J11      
(1) 6-8 Kyokushuho J12 Hokuseiho ky-COVID  
(x) 3-11 Takakento J13 Asashiyu 1-13 (x)
(o) 8-6 Churanoumi J14      
             
(o) 5-1 Terasawa Ms1 Chiyoarashi 3-4 (x)
(o) 5-2 Hiradoumi Ms2 Kotokuzan 4-3 (o)
      Ms3      
  4-3 Jokoryu Ms4 Kotoyusho 3-3  
      Ms5      

 

Explanation of symbols.
(x) Target missed
(#) Number of wins required to reach positive outcome
(o) Target number of wins achieved (whether or not the positive outcome actually happens or not is another matter)
(~) Need banzuke luck

Edited by Sakura
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Day 14

Juryo race

12-2 J5e Abi, 

10-4 J3w SadanoumiJ9e Nishikifuji, J10w Nishikigi J14w Daishoho

A win by Abi over chaser Nishikigi, and a loss by Nishikifuji to promotion seeking Daiamami was enough to clinch the Juryo yusho with a day to spare. Abi's suspension dropped him to lower Makushita from Makuuchi, but he picked up two Makushita and one Juryo yusho and will find himself back in Makuuchi just 14 months after he was last ranked there.

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Hakuho's retirement should give us an unexpected additional spot in Makuuchi and Juryo.  For Makuuchi my guess is Tsurugisho will survive as M18e over Wakamotoharu taking his place.  For Juryo, well, it depends on what you were thinking previously as to Jokoryu taking Kyokushuho's spot, but Jokoryu should definitely get back into Juryo and the question is now whether Kotoyusho will take Kyokushuho's spot.  As strong as the line is at Ms5, I don't see Shiba being in consideration and Tsushimanada is way too far down the banzuke for promotion with a 6-1.

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27 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Hakuho's retirement should give us an unexpected additional spot in Makuuchi and Juryo.  For Makuuchi my guess is Tsurugisho will survive as M18e over Wakamotoharu taking his place.  For Juryo, well, it depends on what you were thinking previously as to Jokoryu taking Kyokushuho's spot, but Jokoryu should definitely get back into Juryo and the question is now whether Kotoyusho will take Kyokushuho's spot.  As strong as the line is at Ms5, I don't see Shiba being in consideration and Tsushimanada is way too far down the banzuke for promotion with a 6-1.

Are we sure about this? Want to make sure before I start messing with my GTB

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1 minute ago, Chartorenji said:

Are we sure about this? Want to make sure before I start messing with my GTB

I don't see any issues with drawing up the rest of the banzuke, and ether having Hakuho at Yokozuna, or Tsurugisho (or Wakamotoharu) at M18e.  There's no reason why anything in between should change.

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40 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Hakuho's retirement should give us an unexpected additional spot in Makuuchi and Juryo.  For Makuuchi my guess is Tsurugisho will survive as M18e over Wakamotoharu taking his place.  For Juryo, well, it depends on what you were thinking previously as to Jokoryu taking Kyokushuho's spot, but Jokoryu should definitely get back into Juryo and the question is now whether Kotoyusho will take Kyokushuho's spot.  As strong as the line is at Ms5, I don't see Shiba being in consideration and Tsushimanada is way too far down the banzuke for promotion with a 6-1.

In addition to being half-a-rank lower than Jokoryu, Kotoyusho doesn't have a head-to-head win over Kyokushuho, FWIW.

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7 hours ago, Gurowake said:

...and Tsushimanada is way too far down the banzuke for promotion with a 6-1.

Ironically, the last person being promoted from Ms9 with a 6-1 record was . . . Hakuho!

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20 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:
7 hours ago, Gurowake said:

...and Tsushimanada is way too far down the banzuke for promotion with a 6-1.

Ironically, the last person being promoted from Ms9 with a 6-1 record was . . . Hakuho!

... and that was also after a yokozuna retirement (Musashimaru).

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1 hour ago, Tigerboy1966 said:
1 hour ago, Jakusotsu said:
9 hours ago, Gurowake said:

...and Tsushimanada is way too far down the banzuke for promotion with a 6-1.

Ironically, the last person being promoted from Ms9 with a 6-1 record was . . . Hakuho!

... and that was also after a yokozuna retirement (Musashimaru).

Eh, the people I'm quoting probably know this, but that was because Hakuho was the beneficiary of an expansion of the sekitori ranks. Makuuchi/juryo was 40/26 during Hakuho's Ms9 basho, and was expanded to 42/28 for a total of 4 bonus places even without factoring in Musashimaru's retirement. With two demotees due to double digit howlers, that led to a bumper crop of 7 (4+1+2) promotions from makushita: 6 KKs counting from Ms1e down (interestingly, Ama and Tokitenku were the Ms1s but both turned in 3-4 MKs). Hakuho was literally the last promotee, being the eighth-highest ranked rikishi to have a KK, but he beat out the seventh-ranked half a rank above him who only had a 4-3.

I highly doubt Tsushimanada will get that promotion this time, unless it's now a tradition to expand the sekitori ranks on a yokozuna retirement.

Credit to Chris Gould, who covered this in one of his videos, which is how I know this offhand.

Edited by Seiyashi
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21 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I highly doubt Tsushimanada will get that promotion this time, unless it's now a tradition to expand the sekitori ranks on a yokozuna retirement.

That's actually not a bad idea at all, considering the excruciating amount of idle time they had to butcher in recent bashos. And Kyokushuho needs to be saved!

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Day 15 (resultstext-only results)

13-2 Yw Terunofuji

11-4 M10w Myogiryu, M11e Endo

Yusho and Sanyaku race

A tough final day opponent for Myogiryu in rank-saving Meisei. Meisei was determined and was just too much for the veteran in the end. That result solidified Meisei at Sekiwake West for November, and confirmed the yusho for Terunofuji before he had even fought. The Yokozuna's own bout was a non-event. At 8 wins and nothing to play for, Shodai seemed to be there just to make up the numbers and was defeated easily.

Takakeisho also had nothing to gain by trying, and so didn't, beaten in short order by Mitakeumi who only had marginally more to gain (one more win for an Ozeki run, should he ever put one together). Finally, Ichinojo was beaten soundly by a determined Daieisho.

After the basho, it was announced that Hakuho is going to retire. Should this happen before the banzuke making session on Wednesday, the Sanyaku will shrink to 7 (counting also Asanoyama's drop), one more than the absolute minimum (given the fact that there were only 7 participating Sanyaku members this time around, we have a good idea as to what it will look like torikumi wise). Hakuho's achievements are superlative and there really is no need to list his many accomplishments and records here. He at least retires after a last zensho-yusho (being forced to sit this one out due to COVID) and at the rank of East Yokozuna. 

Only two candidates remain for the open sanyaku slot vacated by Takayasu, Kiribayama and Daieisho who have equivalent rank-record combinations. Kiribayama is ranked higher, but Daieisho wouldn't be new to Sanyaku. Whatever way they go, the one that didn't make Komusubi should be the highest ranked maegashira.

  ky-COVID Hakuho Y Terunofuji 13-2  
  8-7 Shodai O Takakeisho 8-7  
  9-6 Mitakeumi S Meisei 8-7  
(x) susp Asanoyama S    
(x) 4-8-3 Takayasu K Ichinojo 8-7  
             
      M1 Takanosho 7-8 (x)
      M2 Kiribayama 9-6  
(x) 9-6 Wakatakakage M3      
      M4 Daieisho 10-5  
      M5      
      M6 Onosho 10-5 (x)
      M7      
(x) 10-5 Okinoumi M8      
      M9      
      M10 Myogiryu 11-4 (x)



Makuuchi-Juryo 

In the two crucial matches down here we had Kaisei save his rank against Daiamami, who was condemned to a make-koshi and no chance of promotion. Shohozan overcame cellulitis-sufferer Tsurugisho. In theory this should exchange the two, division-wise. However, Hakuho's retirement, should it become official before the banzuke creation will create an extra Makuuchi slot and I assume that it'll go to Tsurugisho instead of J3e Wakamotoharu (8-7). We'll gain at least an M17w due to Asanoyama dropping out from the Sanyaku ranks and Hakuho's retirement should create an M18, which we last saw in March 2020.

  ky-COVID Ishiura M12      
      M13 Tsurugisho 5-10 (~)
(o) 6-9 Kaisei M14      
(x) 4-11 Ichiyamamoto M15 Chiyonoo 4-11 (x)
      M16 Tokushoryu 4-11 (x)
      M17      
             
      J1 Akua 9-6 (o)
(x) 7-8 Daiamami J2      
      J3 Sadanoumi 10-5 (o)
(o) 10-5 Shohozan J4      
(o) 13-2 Abi J5      

 


Juryo - Makushita

Kyukushuho suffered a last day defeat to Kotoshoho and now has a demotable record. However it is not unheard of for a J12 with a 6-9 record to stay in Juryo, especially if the next best promotion candidate is an Ms4 with a 4-3 record, as is the case here. However, Hakuho's retirement (if official before the banzuke meking meeting) should mean that Jokoryu is back in the sekitori ranks and the decision then becomes Kyukushuho vs Kotoyusho, which I imagine will be inJuryo-man's favour.

      J9 Takagenji removed (x)
      J10      
  ky-COVID Enho J11      
(?) 6-9 Kyokushuho J12 Hokuseiho ky-COVID  
(x) 3-12 Takakento J13 Asashiyu 1-13 (x)
      J14      
             
(o) 5-1 Terasawa Ms1      
(o) 5-2 Hiradoumi Ms2 Kotokuzan 4-3 (o)
      Ms3      
(~) 4-3 Jokoryu Ms4 Kotoyusho 4-3 (?)
      Ms5      


Explanation of symbols.

(x) Target missed
(#) Number of wins required to reach positive outcome
(o) Target number of wins achieved (whether or not the positive outcome actually happens or not is another matter)
(~) Need banzuke luck

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7 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Eh, the people I'm quoting probably know this, but that was because Hakuho was the beneficiary of an expansion of the sekitori ranks. Makuuchi/juryo was 40/26 during Hakuho's Ms9 basho, and was expanded to 42/28 for a total of 4 bonus places even without factoring in Musashimaru's retirement. With two demotees due to double digit howlers, that led to a bumper crop of 7 (4+1+2) promotions from makushita: 6 KKs counting from Ms1e down (interestingly, Ama and Tokitenku were the Ms1s but both turned in 3-4 MKs). Hakuho was literally the last promotee, being the eighth-highest ranked rikishi to have a KK, but he beat out the seventh-ranked half a rank above him who only had a 4-3.

I highly doubt Tsushimanada will get that promotion this time, unless it's now a tradition to expand the sekitori ranks on a yokozuna retirement.

Credit to Chris Gould, who covered this in one of his videos, which is how I know this offhand.

Just a slight correction, there were actually two retirements following that basho: Musashimaru and J8w Aogiayama which opened 8 spots in Juryo between all the retirements, expansions and demotions. The final spot went either to Hakuho or to Daimanazuru who went 7-0 Y at Ms16w...

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2 hours ago, Sakura said:

Hakuho's retirement should create an M18, which we last saw in March 2020.

There's an opportunity for whoever lands at M18 to break the record for the lowest ranked makujiri yusho. No, seriously. Stranger (or equally strange) things have happened, and happened recently.

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4 hours ago, Sakura said:

We'll gain at least an M17w due to Asanoyama dropping out from the Sanyaku ranks and Hakuho's retirement should create an M18, which we last saw in March 2020.

And that was the only time since the 1950s!

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I think Kotoyusho is a great-sounding shikona. :-) IIUC, the -yusho part is pronounced the same as the regular word for yusho, but it's written with different kanji? Could someone tell what the shikona means?

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1 hour ago, Kashunowaka said:

I think Kotoyusho is a great-sounding shikona. :-) IIUC, the -yusho part is pronounced the same as the regular word for yusho, but it's written with different kanji? Could someone tell what the shikona means?

 

The Kanji being pronounced "Yu" means "abundant, rich, plentiful".  The "Sho" is the same as in "shogun", and while there are two entirely separate meanings associated with that kanji, it presumably means "commander" in this situation.  There's no entry on Wikitionary for the two kanji compounded like that, though plenty of hits on Google that I have little hope of reading.

Edited by Gurowake

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7 hours ago, Sakura said:

However, Hakuho's retirement (if official before the banzuke meking meeting) should mean that Jokoryu is back in the sekitori ranks and the decision then becomes Kyukushuho vs Kotoyusho, which I imagine will be inJuryo-man's favour.

I guess if we see four sekitori promotions, that won't necessarily tell us whether Hakuho's retirement was official in time, since we won't know Kyokushuho's fate.

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6 hours ago, Gurowake said:

 

The Kanji being pronounced "Yu" means "abundant, rich, plentiful".  The "Sho" is the same as in "shogun", and while there are two entirely separate meanings associated with that kanji, it presumably means "commander" in this situation.  There's no entry on Wikitionary for the two kanji compounded like that, though plenty of hits on Google that I have little hope of reading.

Having tried it myself I suspect you are getting a lot of hits in Chinese. There is a Japanese impresario with the same kanji but pronounced Yusuke, though I doubt there is any link. If indeed he is promoted I expect we should hear more about him soon enough, and we'd be happy to cover it in the Shikona megathread.

This is the only article I can find on him which is a non-DB source: https://hochi.news/articles/20200115-OHT1T50310.html

Edited by Seiyashi

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Sitting over my GTB draft, I'm rather clueless whether Asanoyama or Hokutofuji will be ranked higher.

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21 hours ago, Ripe said:
On 27/09/2021 at 09:42, Seiyashi said:

Eh, the people I'm quoting probably know this, but that was because Hakuho was the beneficiary of an expansion of the sekitori ranks. Makuuchi/juryo was 40/26 during Hakuho's Ms9 basho, and was expanded to 42/28 for a total of 4 bonus places even without factoring in Musashimaru's retirement. With two demotees due to double digit howlers, that led to a bumper crop of 7 (4+1+2) promotions from makushita: 6 KKs counting from Ms1e down (interestingly, Ama and Tokitenku were the Ms1s but both turned in 3-4 MKs). Hakuho was literally the last promotee, being the eighth-highest ranked rikishi to have a KK, but he beat out the seventh-ranked half a rank above him who only had a 4-3.

I highly doubt Tsushimanada will get that promotion this time, unless it's now a tradition to expand the sekitori ranks on a yokozuna retirement.

Credit to Chris Gould, who covered this in one of his videos, which is how I know this offhand.

Just a slight correction, there were actually two retirements following that basho: Musashimaru and J8w Aogiayama which opened 8 spots in Juryo between all the retirements, expansions and demotions. The final spot went either to Hakuho or to Daimanazuru who went 7-0 Y at Ms16w...

Given how high Hakuho got promoted - ahead of three other promotees - I rather doubt that he was the last (or even second-last) one to be selected for promotion when they decided who should be going up. 

As for, "but other than Daimanazuru with his 7-0, they clearly just promoted KK rikishi from the top down", you'll want to check out what they did in similarly excessive situations after Nagoya 2010 and Nagoya 2011 for how many higher-ranked KKs got passed by a 6-1 there. Not applicable to the current basho, naturally, since we're now talking about a 6-1 outside the top 5 ranks and other KKs inside of them, but when everybody's outside the "rules" are quite different.

Edited by Asashosakari
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