Akinomaki

Kyushu 2021 discussion

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11 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

I’d count his 10-5 > 11-4 in March and July of last year too. The 10-5 was at M3e which would have been close enough to be counted if the third basho was decent.

Fair enough, I limited my search to when he was ranked san'yaku. IMO 9+ win san'yaku (or upper maegashira) basho are too common to count them as starts of runs, even though they may end up being such in retrospect.

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I would only count any two basho where the rikishi had at least 20 wins in the previous tournament and was in sanyaku for both.  If not in sanyaku for both, add one win per tournament as such (assuming still a full joi schedule).  That would leave us the two tournaments following the first Yusho, the tournament following the second Yusho, Aki 2020 coming off 10-11, and now.  I note how each of the runs seems in some way weaker to the one before.

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45 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

I’d count his 10-5 > 11-4 in March and July of last year too. The 10-5 was at M3e which would have been close enough to be counted if the third basho was decent. And tbh, we can count any time he scored a 9-6 or 10-5, as it could feasibly have been the first basho in a run. His 10-5 at Komusubi just in May could have started one.

Treating a single basho as a countable ozeki run is pretty silly unless it's a truly exceptional result. It's a run when there's an actual possibility that the next score can result in promotion. A single 9-6 or 10-5 does nothing of the sort.

Edited by Asashosakari
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4 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Treating a single basho as a countable ozeki run is pretty silly unless it's a truly exceptional result. It's a run when there's an actual possibility that the next score can result in promotion. A single 9-6 or 10-5 does nothing of the sort.

I’ll rephrase: Given Mitakeumi’s obvious talent and potential, anytime he scores a minimum of 9-6 there is discussion about whether he can build it into an Ozeki run, and then the disappointment when he follows it up with an underwhelming 8-7. This is what I mean. Mitakeumi specific.

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Those are pretty short discussions nowadays, as far as I can tell. I'd be inclined to apply the "pretty silly" descriptor to them, too, inasmuch as they're actually happening.

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3 hours ago, Naganoyama said:

Did I miss something or did they skip the pre-basho weigh-in?

They had one before the Aki basho

Another pic with the birthday of Hokuseiho, I don't think they do it every basho

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On 01/12/2021 at 04:13, Eikokurai said:

I’ll rephrase: Given Mitakeumi’s obvious talent and potential, anytime he scores a minimum of 9-6 there is discussion about whether he can build it into an Ozeki run, and then the disappointment when he follows it up with an underwhelming 8-7. This is what I mean. Mitakeumi specific.

I would question the use of the word "potential"... The problem for me is that I don't think that Mitakeumi has improved much in the last five years. In 2017 he beat Hakuho, Harumafuji (twice) and Kakuryu (twice).  I don't think he's really shown that kind of form recently: he looks slow and passive and appears pretty clueless every time he faces Terunofuji. As far as ozeki contenders are concerned, if he's the best we've got we are in big trouble.

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2 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

I would question the use of the word "potential"... The problem for me is that I don't think that Mitakeumi has improved much in the last five years. In 2017 he beat Hakuho, Harumafuji (twice) and Kakuryu (twice).  I don't think he's really shown that kind of form recently: he looks slow and passive and appears pretty clueless every time he faces Terunofuji. As far as ozeki contenders are concerned, if he's the best we've got we are in big trouble.

He got second-most wins for the year, and had the second best record against yokozuna and ozeki opponents of anyone who's faced them regularly. He is, and we are.

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2 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

I would question the use of the word "potential"... The problem for me is that I don't think that Mitakeumi has improved much in the last five years. In 2017 he beat Hakuho, Harumafuji (twice) and Kakuryu (twice).  I don't think he's really shown that kind of form recently: he looks slow and passive and appears pretty clueless every time he faces Terunofuji. As far as ozeki contenders are concerned, if he's the best we've got we are in big trouble.

I'm not going to disagree, but, as I've said before, Mitakeumi's problem is that he's doing Ozeki-level sumo without the crucial step of making Ozeki.

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12 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

They had one before the Aki basho

Another pic with the birthday of Hokuseiho, I don't think they do it every basho

...

Thanks. The reason I asked was because I always update my own database on banzuke day or shortly after with the sekitori heights and weights and then some time before the basho with the lower division heights and weights. This time NONE of the rikishi heights and weights had changed. I tried again just after the basho and still no changes.

Perhaps I should try again but I find it a very strange situation.

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Kyushu--November 2021 Basho--Links and Statistics Report--SUMMARY

Latest Chris Sumo videos (Top 10 earners 2021, Terunofuji, Shohozan, Hakuho assesses his former rivals).

Terunofuji--video links to each of his matches, his Kimarite summary, his time of match summary, other Division winners with links to videos of their championship winning matches (all available except the Jonidan playoff), special prize winners, Number of Kimarite as % of total wins (for Rikishi with 10 or more wins, Kimarite Cumulative statistics (November and September), Time of match statistics (cumulative and matches by time (November, September, July, May), KK/MK, Top Rank Performance, Maegashira v san'yaku, Juryo substitutes.

Complete index  of linked videos and photos day by day. 

Kyushu--November 2021 Basho--Links and Statistics Report--SUMMARY

Upcoming: 2021 Win sort for all Rikishi who participated in Makuuchi Basho in 2021. 

Enjoy

 

 

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12 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

I would question the use of the word "potential"... The problem for me is that I don't think that Mitakeumi has improved much in the last five years. In 2017 he beat Hakuho, Harumafuji (twice) and Kakuryu (twice).  I don't think he's really shown that kind of form recently: he looks slow and passive and appears pretty clueless every time he faces Terunofuji. As far as ozeki contenders are concerned, if he's the best we've got we are in big trouble.

With Mitakeumi is always the same feeling, or he's just like a bulldozer, or he gives up really fast, kinda Ichinojo in some way. 

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Here's some info on "Mitakeumi the second week dud."

There's some truth to it.  I've compiled his wins on each basho day since he broke into Makuuchi (36 basho); a summary broken down into 3-day increments.

Winning percentage:

day 1-3  72.2

day 4-6  57.4

day 7-9  50.9

day 10-12  45.4

day 13-15  62.0

If the comments about his slack pre-basho prep are true, it seems to show up in his record.  Still, most of these numbers are above 50%, and he has 8.64 wins per basho over that time.  Yeah, I get that the second week is "meet the top rankers", but his decline begins on day 4 with a 20% drop from day 3.

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1 hour ago, Yamanashi said:

Yeah, I get that the second week is "meet the top rankers", but his decline begins on day 4 with a 20% drop from day 3.

Yet I have the impression he doesn't do all that badly against the top rankers, generally. And there's a distinction between the joi of the Kise era and now. I wonder if his performance has actually improved somewhat ever since the changing of the guard. 

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16 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Yet I have the impression he doesn't do all that badly against the top rankers, generally. And there's a distinction between the joi of the Kise era and now. I wonder if his performance has actually improved somewhat ever since the changing of the guard. 

Yeah take a look at his schedule back in those days!

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16 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Yet I have the impression he doesn't do all that badly against the top rankers, generally. And there's a distinction between the joi of the Kise era and now. I wonder if his performance has actually improved somewhat ever since the changing of the guard. 

It's difficult for me to put hard numbers together on that; he hit Makuuchi in 11/2015 and Kisenosato was injured in 5/2017, so there's not much data to gnaw on.

He's "underwater" to a surprising list of opponents:

Expected:

Hakuho (4-12)

Kisenosato (2-6)

Terunofuji (4-12)

Mild surprise:

Takayasu (8-19)

Wut?:

Ryuden (1-5)

Kaisei (1-7).

I will check on the "old joi vs new joi" matter if time permits.

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11 hours ago, Reonito said:
11 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

Wut?:

Ryuden (1-5)

Kaisei (1-7).

Belt guys...

Compare with

Tamawashi (25-3)

Onosho (10-3)

Abi (7-2)

Daieisho (12-7)

and I think we see a pattern emerging.

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7 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Compare with

Tamawashi (25-3)

Onosho (10-3)

Abi (7-2)

Daieisho (12-7)

and I think we see a pattern emerging.

We can add 12-10 vs Takakeisho, counting the playoff win.

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The "old joi vs new joi" situation:

Mitakeumi has been in Makuuchi 36 basho -- six years.  He took one year to get to M1, then mostly Komosubi or Sekiwake for five years.

Total number of Y-O-S-K faced by Mitakeumi for each six-basho "year":

Year 1  14

Year 2  52

Year 3  35

Year 4  40

Year 5  35

There are always two S and 2 K, so what matters is how many competing Ozeki and Yokozuna there are during the basho.  When he hit Sanyaku there were 3 Yokozuna and 4 Ozeki online for each basho.  When he hit the joi at M1 in July 2016, he faced 10 of 11 of them out of 15 matches.  At the end of this year, with 1 Yokozuna and 2 Ozeki, he faced 5.  If he's going for Ozeki, he couldn't pick a better time for it.

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15 hours ago, Reonito said:
22 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Compare with

Tamawashi (25-3)

Onosho (10-3)

Abi (7-2)

Daieisho (12-7)

and I think we see a pattern emerging.

We can add 12-10 vs Takakeisho, counting the playoff win.

When I want to get an understanding of a wrestler's style I have usually gone to the database and looked up his list of winning techniques: in future i will be looking at the losses as well.

In the case of Mitakeumi 43% of his losses come by yorikiri while 18% come by oshidashi. Glancing through the upper ranks the only others with ratios like that are Terunofuji, Ichinojo and Okinoumi but they are all yotsu specialists who try to take every bout to the belt: they get most of their WINS by YK as well.

Depending on how you look at the glass of milk, you could say that Mitakeumi is either vulnerable to yotsu, or really good against oshi, or both.

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2 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

In the case of Mitakeumi 43% of his losses come by yorikiri while 18% come by oshidashi. Glancing through the upper ranks the only others with ratios like that are Terunofuji, Ichinojo and Okinoumi but they are all yotsu specialists who try to take every bout to the belt: they get most of their WINS by YK as well.

Depending on how you look at the glass of milk, you could say that Mitakeumi is either vulnerable to yotsu, or really good against oshi, or both.

If you continue with that line of analysis but comparing him to the other oshi types in Takakeisho, Daieisho, and Onosho, his loss pattern is also quite funny: all of them have yorikiri loss rates of about 12% compared to Mitakeumi's 43%. And Onosho, famously another "inconsistent" oshi-type, is the only one who has oshidashi loss rates comparable to Mitakeumi at 17%; Takakeisho and Daieisho clock at about 25%.

The other side is this is also what Mitakeumi is good at. He's traditionally "known" as an oshi-type, but if you compare him to Takakeisho, Daieisho, and Onosho, he has a significant number of wins by yorikiri (24% according to NSK); the next closest is Onosho with 14% and yorikiri doesn't even feature in the top 3 of the other two.

It's funny because you wouldn't really class Onosho and Mitakeumi as having similar styles off the top of your head, but maybe the kimarite data betrays that general impression. I still think Onosho is more pure oshi than what the data says, but Mitakeumi might be having a jack of all trades problem here: he might have started as an oshi wrestler and diversified into yotsu, but whatever advantage this gives him over oshi wrestlers gets flipped into a super disadvantage against yotsu wrestlers who know exactly what he's doing and how to counter it.

Considering the sanyaku have always had a significant yotsu presence, perhaps that's why he keeps falling short of the ozeki standards: he can clean house against the oshi types that are increasingly prevalent in sumo, but has a bad time against the yotsu types. And this might explain some of his week 2 fade as well: that's the sanyaku week for him, which consists both of more difficult opponents as well as more yotsu types than week 1. So in some senses the fault might not be mental, but this hypothesis needs further and more rigorous testing I'm not inclined to do at the moment.

The natural follow up question is why he doesn't just revert to oshi. He could take a few leaves out of Takakeisho's book here, as the ozeki has had decent success against Terunofuji and Shodai in not being the obvious gimme that many thought he would have been.

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