Kyushu 2021 discussion

[Kishinoyama 596]

7 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

They could very easily, and not unreasonably, retroactively count this 12-3 in a tsuna-run, but when I spoke above tsuna runs I meant a public comment setting him a target for January. I’m not sure this basho’s record will quite get us there.

As I stated in my post, time will tell.

[Amamaniac 2,079]

15 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

25 minutes ago, Kishinoyama said:

In my opinion if Takakeisho was to win the next tournament ,I believe that he would be promoted to Yokozuna, depending on his final score. I think a 14-1 or 15-0 would get him promoted to Yokozuna. A 13-2 might be enough. The fact that their is only one Yokozuna and he already has two yusho would work in his favor. Time will tell. 

They could very easily, and not unreasonably, retroactively count this 12-3 in a tsuna-run, but when I spoke above tsuna runs I meant a public comment setting him a target for January. I’m not sure this basho’s record will quite get us there.

The sad thing about all the tsuna-run speculation at this point is that we probably won't get to see if a promotion gets approved given the scenarios put forward.  I think Terunofuji has figured out how to deal with the feisty Takaeisho, which means it will be highly unlikely that Takakeisho will get a 15-0 in January.  Sadly and moreover, it is doubtful he will get a 14-1.  Nothing is impossible, and dreams are always welcome.

But my point is that we may and probably will never know if a promotion were possible... Sigh.

Edited November 28, 2021 by Amamaniac

[Eikokurai 3,437]

Just now, Amamaniac said:

The sad thing about all the tuna-run

Nothing about my old runs to Subway for Tuna Tuesday used to make me sad. 

[Amamaniac 2,079]

5 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Nothing about my old runs to Subway for Tuna Tuesday used to make me sad. 

Lucky you! 

Good thing they didn't give you the runs!

Spoiler

Damned auto correct!  Gets me many a time.  I'm getting too old for this new fangled software!

 

Edited November 28, 2021 by Amamaniac

[Hankegami 537]

Good end of basho, especially happy for Terunofuji's zensho yusho. Although as a sumo fan I hoped for more variety, I admit that such an icing on Terunofuji's Yokozuna cake is too good for me to cry over the unimpressive results my other favourites. 

About my favourites, I wouldn't think so bad of Takakeisho's low-key, joint jun-yusho. I completely agree that, as a stand-alone result, is not impressive at all but could nonetheless turn useful in the near future. Granted, Takakeisho must give much better results in the meanwhile. However, if (IF) he will score a proper yusho and a more convincing jun-yusho in the next two bashos (fine, quite difficult for his standard performances but it's him who's adamant in desiring that damn rope, so...) I believe the NSK will consider this yun-jusho as part of a JY-Y-JY (or similar formulas) strike and give him the rope. But again, Takakeisho MUST provide better results from now on.

11 minutes ago, Kishinoyama said:

In my opinion if Takakeisho was to win the next tournament ,I believe that he would be promoted to Yokozuna, depending on his final score. I think a 14-1 or 15-0 would get him promoted to Yokozuna. A 13-2 might be enough. The fact that their is only one Yokozuna and he already has two yusho would work in his favor. Time will tell. 

It's true this worked for Kisenosato, and that Takakeisho's two yushos could be compared to Kisenosato's long string of jun-yushos. However, I admit I would be disappointed whether this would occur. A JY-Y is NOT a Y-Y  and I hope that the NSK realizes this much. They pulled a loose interpretation for Kisenosato but he came from three straight JY before a less impressive 10-5 score in Aki 2016 but followed by his Kyushu 2016 jun-yusho and Hatsu 2017 yusho. I cannot see how a 2018 and 2020 yusho could count for a 2022 run for the rope. If I were the NSK, I would ask for another JY at least beside a yusho, otherwise they blatantly expose themselves as having double standards for Japanese and non-Japanese candidates (even more, I mean). Terunofuji had to provide another JY before being promoted to Yokozuna just because he got one of his two consecutive yushos as a Sekiwake (and it was preceded by two consecutive JY). I cannot see how a plain JY-Y could compete to a darn JY-JY-Y-Y-JY run just because a guy has "Ozeki" written on the banzuke.

Actually, there are clues they may realize this much themselves. I remember reading your comments for Hatsu 2021 concerning how the NSK was silent about Takakeisho's chances for the rope despite him having won the previous basho. My take is they waited to see how he performed in January: had he won, he could get his rope. But in case of JY, I believe they planned to come out with "we'd prefer to see at least another JY". I think that a "two JY make a Y" rule would be rather fair, and I really hope they will stick to it.

6 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

On the other hand, Terunofuji is walking on two time bombs. Better to provide a second yokozuna in time before his knees crumble for good.

I never understood why this discussion ever comes up. There have been other periods without Yokozuna in sumo history. The most recent happened, I believe, from January 1992 (when Asahifuji retired) to January 1993 (when Akebono became Yokozuna). A whole year, with of course Konishiki's failed attempt (Kyushu 1991 to Haru 1992) to the rope. Different times, perhaps, with Futahaguro's embarrassing tenure (1986-1987) still burning, not to mention they did not have suitable Japanese candidates to the rope. However, I think the NSK has learned their lesson. They simply cannot afford unsuitable Yokozuna. They are not as adamant in requiring two yushos as they did for many years after 1986, but they are unlikely to go back to very loose interpretations of minimum requirements just to have a Yokozuna on the banzuke.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

36 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

1 hour ago, Jakusotsu said:

On the other hand, Terunofuji is walking on two time bombs. Better to provide a second yokozuna in time before his knees crumble for good.

I never understood why this discussion ever comes up. There have been other periods without Yokozuna in sumo history.

This discussion only makes sense when there are as few yokozuna/ozeki as we currently have, and where there is little prospect of them being replaced. A quick reminder that the banzuke dictates at least two yokozuna/ozeki, one east and one west, and that while we have had periods without yokozuna, we have never had periods with less than two yokozuna and ozeki combined.

The previous sengoku period had clear ozeki-level prospects in Musashimaru and the Hanada brothers as well as a strong ozeki/yokozuna potentiate in Akebono, so ozeki replacements were no concern, even discounting the late 80's ozeki duo of Kirishima and Konishiki.

But right now, with Asanoyama demoted and a long way before he challenges for ozeki again, Terunofuji and Takakeisho both one bad injury away from retirement/demotion, Shodai being Shin-Goeido in terms of kadobanability, and no obvious replacements for any of them at either ozeki or yokozuna, there is a very real risk of the "<2 yokozuna/ozeki" scenario. The NSK being the NSK, I do agree that the desire to avoid that risk of the unknown will shade into their decision-making, but only when it comes to the laxity of ozeki (not yokozuna) promotions. It won't be explicit, but I could see a possibility of Mitakeumi being promoted with even 31 next basho if let's say, touch wood, one of Takakeisho or Terunofuji is injured early next basho. But you're probably right in that a desire for a "backup" yokozuna is barking up the wrong tree as far as promotion criteria for yokozuna are concerned.

[Gurowake 4,104]

The only way Takakeisho's 12-3 J should count towards a tsuna run is an extended Kisenosato-style run where he puts up consistent numbers that good or better.  Maybe a zensho next time might do it given that they're likely to want a Japanese Yokozuna, but I don't think it'll be enough.  Maybe 12J-15-12J could be enough is the first two aren't good enough, but not having 13 in the final tournament to me seems like not having 10 for an Ozeki promotion, and 15-13 by itself should be enough for someone with 2 other Yusho, though the leading 12 doesn't hurt in that case.  On the other hand, 12-12-12-13 even with no honors might be enough and would fulfill my 49/4 criteria that basically all Yokozuna meet at some point and only Konishiki met without being promoted.

I agree that Ozeki promotions will almost certainly be loosened because of the lack of Y+O now, and that 11 wins from Mitakeumi in Hatsu would likely be sufficient.  I might even say 10 as they really need Ozeki and Mitakeumi has shown he'll likely stay Ozeki a while given that he's performed at Ozeki maintenance level for 5 years or so (albeit with one MK-MK-10 run).  Takanosho might even benefit from weakened criteria, but I personally think he'll continue to struggle getting KKs and his double digit win tournaments will be too spread out to warrant promotion.  He's not nearly as consistent as Mitakeumi or Goeido, being more along the lines of Tochiozan, if not slightly worse.

[Morty 1,505]

1 hour ago, Hankegami said:

It's true this worked for Kisenosato, and that Takakeisho's two yushos could be compared to Kisenosato's long string of jun-yushos. However, I admit I would be disappointed whether this would occur. A JY-Y is NOT a Y-Y  and I hope that the NSK realizes this much. They pulled a loose interpretation for Kisenosato but he came from three straight JY before a less impressive 10-5 score in Aki 2016 but followed by his Kyushu 2016 jun-yusho and Hatsu 2017 yusho. I cannot see how a 2018 and 2020 yusho could count for a 2022 run for the rope. If I were the NSK, I would ask for another JY at least beside a yusho, otherwise they blatantly expose themselves as having double standards for Japanese and non-Japanese candidates (even more, I mean). Terunofuji had to provide another JY before being promoted to Yokozuna just because he got one of his two consecutive yushos as a Sekiwake (and it was preceded by two consecutive JY). I cannot see how a plain JY-Y could compete to a darn JY-JY-Y-Y-JY run just because a guy has "Ozeki" written on the banzuke.



The other thing about Kise is he had 6 years as an Ozeki putting up Yokozuna  level numbers without ever quite managing a yusho. Most of that time he was level with Harumafuji in terms of wins per basho (in 36 basho he only got less than ten wins six times), and he beat Hakuho 16(!) times and Harumafuji 24 times to that point so they knew he was the real deal. The instant he got a yusho he was getting the rope with that record. Takakeisho's record isn't even close to comparable - without the consistency Kise showed as an Ozeki over many years I agree that a JY-Y run for Takakeisho is not good enough. Kise had a special record that Takakeisho just doesn't have. He'll need two yushos or a yusho-doten to get it

[Mightyduck 67]

Congratulations to Terunofuji!

A well deserved zensho and he is clearly trying his hardest to fulfill his role as yokozuna and doing a fine job. 

As regards Takakeisho, I think we have to remember that Hakkaku etc were very critical of his sumo prior to his Ozeki promotion, and made him wait an extra Basho. He hasn't broadened his sumo, has been kadoban, and had to drop and recover the rank through injury. He will get no leniency in the application of the yokozuna criteria.

[Hankegami 537]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

This discussion only makes sense when there are as few yokozuna/ozeki as we currently have, and where there is little prospect of them being replaced. A quick reminder that the banzuke dictates at least two yokozuna/ozeki, one east and one west, and that while we have had periods without yokozuna, we have never had periods with less than two yokozuna and ozeki combined.

50 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I agree that Ozeki promotions will almost certainly be loosened because of the lack of Y+O now, and that 11 wins from Mitakeumi in Hatsu would likely be sufficient.  I might even say 10 as they really need Ozeki and Mitakeumi has shown he'll likely stay Ozeki a while given that he's performed at Ozeki maintenance level for 5 years or so (albeit with one MK-MK-10 run).  Takanosho might even benefit from weakened criteria, but I personally think he'll continue to struggle getting KKs and his double digit win tournaments will be too spread out to warrant promotion.  He's not nearly as consistent as Mitakeumi or Goeido, being more along the lines of Tochiozan, if not slightly worse.

I forgot they need at least two Ozeki on the banzuke. To this extent, having at least a Yokozuna to make a Yokozuna-Ozeki could be a solution, but it would be simpler to go back to the old 30 bouts criteria. They will have a handful of prospective Ozeki this way without embarrassing themselves with some cheap quality Yokozuna. I mean, they already have a cheap Ozeki (Shodai) but no one is really resented about it, as Ozeki are not the face of Sumo and having a guy hanging on on the rank is not really a big deal.

About potential candidates, Mitakeumi has already a 9-6 and 11-4 now, and if they really need an extra Ozeki they can take his 9-6 as good (highly unorthodox, but it's just one win away from the minimum requirement) and ask for a 10+ performance next basho (30 bouts in total) although things would be better if he manages a 13-2 so to reach 33. A yusho or a jun-yusho would smooth things further. However, all depends on how much desperate the NSK is.

Beside Mitakeumi, going back to a 30 bouts rule could open a few more Ozeki spots. Wakatakakage almost did an Ozeki-like string twice (Nagoya-Aki 2020, 10-5 & 11-4, and on a lower key also Haru-Natsu 2021, 10-5 & 9-6). Granted, he's not even San'yaku right now, but he's nonetheless a good horse to point on in the middle term especially with a 30 bouts rule. Daieisho is another one with multiple 10+ hiccups, although at 28 years old he should be way more consistent or he will retire as a former Sekiwake nevertheless of which Ozeki rule is used. And of course everybody is waiting for Hoshoryu to pass from a promise to an actual San'yaku rikishi.

Edited November 28, 2021 by Hankegami

[Eikokurai 3,437]

RE: Mitakeumi and the *need* for Ozeki. I see no particular reason why they couldn’t apply all the same arguments made for Kisenosato’s Yokozuna promotion to Mitakeumi for Ozeki. Their circumstances are only a difference of degree apart. Six years of consistently brilliant Ozeki sumo served as the justification for Kise’s rope, so they could quite reasonably take Mitakeumi’s five years of near-unbroken junior sanyaku occupancy as justification for an Ozeki nod. He’s been up there for 27 of the last 30 basho, so he has proven he can be relied upon for kachikoshi at that level. If they feel they absolutely need someone for the rank, lowering the usual standards for him can be easily explained away.

Edited November 28, 2021 by Eikokurai

[Sakura 1,495]

3 hours ago, Hankegami said:

 If I were the NSK, I would ask for another JY at least beside a yusho, otherwise they blatantly expose themselves as having double standards for Japanese and non-Japanese candidates (even more, I mean). Terunofuji had to provide another JY before being promoted to Yokozuna just because he got one of his two consecutive yushos as a Sekiwake (and it was preceded by two consecutive JY).

From the database, a S-O-Y promotion only happened once, but that was in the 1890's and doesn't really apply to contemporary sumo. Terunofuji is only the second rikishi in the database to back-to-back yusho with the first being at Sekiwake and the second at Ozeki. Futabayama also didn't get promoted after that first Ozeki yusho either. They require at least two basho as an Ozeki before promotion. 

[Hankegami 537]

4 minutes ago, Sakura said:

From the database, a S-O-Y promotion only happened once, but that was in the 1890's and doesn't really apply to contemporary sumo. Terunofuji is only the second rikishi in the database to back-to-back yusho with the first being at Sekiwake and the second at Ozeki. Futabayama also didn't get promoted after that first Ozeki yusho either. They require at least two basho as an Ozeki before promotion. 

Sure, I wasn't criticising the NSK demands to Terunofuji. At least, they were perfectly in line with their post-1986 (Futahaguro) hard approach. My argument was part of my scepticism towards a lone JY-Y perspective promotion for Takakeisho, that one cannot receive a VERY favourable treatment just because already an Ozeki.

I gave Terunofuji's example as it is the most recent. Past examples may include Asahifuji (two consecutive yushos as an Ozeki), Konishiki (refused promotion as an Ozeki as two non-consecutive bashos did not fit the bill), Akebono (two yushos as an Ozeki), Takanohana (FIVE yushos without promotion and a relatively long tenure as Ozeki just because the NSK demanded two consecutive yushos) and so on. I believe Kisenosato was the first since Futahaguro to be promoted without a Y-Y streak, but we have already plenty discussed about his enviable curriculum as an Ozeki that made his bid believable nonetheless.

[Kashunowaka 300]

On 27/11/2021 at 07:04, Akinomaki said:

Hiradoumi injured his right ankle against Oho, out with the wheelchair and most likely his basho is over, so it's makekoshi tomorrow.

Hiradoumi finishes 7-7-1 with no fusenpai loss. As far as I could find, this has only happened once before in juryo or makuuchi.

Edited November 28, 2021 by Kashunowaka

[Gospodin 219]

47 minutes ago, Sakura said:

From the database, a S-O-Y promotion only happened once

Truly impossible to compare, a different era. However, I´d really like to know how a 6-1-1-2d could get him demoted from Ozeki, while a 7-2-1 record a few years later resulted in his promotion to Yokozuna 

I suppose kachikoshi alone didn´t automatically mean to at least stay at a rank.

Edited November 28, 2021 by Gospodin

[rzombie1988 159]

I didn't watch much of the basho as I figured Terunofuji would have an easy time. Glad to see he won.

I hope Mitakeumi doesn't get promoted yet. His record isn't impressive enough. 8-7 and 9-6 are hardly records to be excited about, especially with this less than stellar group.

Edited November 28, 2021 by rzombie1988

[Sakura 1,495]

4 minutes ago, Gospodin said:

Truly impossible to compare, a different era. However, I´d really like to know how a 6-1-1-2d could get him demoted from Ozeki, while a 7-2-1 record a few years later resulted in his promotion to Yokozuna 

It really was a different structure. This seems to be in the time of one set of rikishi stick to either East or West and they are essentially ranking them in order, as far as I can tell. A forumer with better sumo history knowledge may well correct me.

[Hankegami 537]

5 minutes ago, Gospodin said:

Truly impossible to compare, a different era. However, I´d really like to know how a 6-1-1-2d could get him demoted from Ozeki, while a 7-2-1 record a few years later resulted in his promotion to Yokozuna 

His Wikipedia page clarifies things up a bit. Basically, if I understood well, there could be only two Ozeki, Sekiwake, and Komusubi per rank back then. Nishinoumi simply scored worse than the Sekiwake East in Natsu 1885 and the two switched ranks. No wonder he was the Yokozuna who insisted to have his rank written in the banzuke. I bet he was somewhat tired to have his hard-earned placement stripped.

P.S.: Much as @Sakura has already explained, I think.

[Akinomaki 40,774]

With about 3700 spectators today, close the number allowed in, the house was declared full for the first time since day 15 of the 2020 Hatsu basho.

the banners, not seen down for nearly 2 years

o

Edited November 28, 2021 by Akinomaki

[Reonito 1,519]

Today's results give Kotoeko a narrow "victory" over Kagayaki for most top-division losses in 2021, 54-53.

[Shatsume 118]

Perfect retirement bout for brawler Shohozan I reckon; last bout on home soil, a win, and absolutely plastered in blood. 

[Thorbjarn 215]

6 hours ago, Hankegami said:

[...] I believe Kisenosato was the first since Futahaguro to be promoted without a Y-Y streak, but we have already plenty discussed about his enviable curriculum as an Ozeki that made his bid believable nonetheless.

Actually, Kakuryu was. I agree with you that Takakeisho's Ozeki track record doesn't compare to Kisenosato's for a "soft" promotion nonetheless. 

[Reonito 1,519]

7 minutes ago, Thorbjarn said:

Actually, Kakuryu was. I agree with you that Takakeisho's Ozeki track record doesn't compare to Kisenosato's for a "soft" promotion nonetheless. 

14-1 with a playoff loss to peak Hakuho, whom he beat in regulation, followed by 14-1 Y with wins over both current Yokozuna was hard to argue with.

[Thorbjarn 215]

Not arguing it at all. It wasn't a Y-Y though and it  was after Futahaguro and before Kisenosato. 

[Reonito 1,519]

I wasn't implying that you were, just noting that it was as close to Y-Y as one could possibly get.