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Asashosakari

Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Aki 2021

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Another Covid-marred LKS edition, with shin-juryo Hokuseiho forced to sit out for the second time this year. He'll be back on the ballot (presumably) for Kyushu.

Still plenty of action to come here, however, courtesy of the following 14 entrants led by new yokozuna Terunofuji:

 1. Terunofuji     14  [score?]
 2. Ura            10
 3. Ichiyamamoto    8
 4. Meisei          7  [score?]
 5. Shishi          7*
 6. Fujikawa        7
 7. Hagiwara        7*
 8. Shimoyama       6*
 9. Chiyoshoma      5
10. Kotoyusho       5
11. Awanokuni       5
12. Akitoba         5
13. Mitakeumi       4  [score?]
14. Kaisho          4

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

  • For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.
  • For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

(For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 14 guys up there and the further 9 rikishi (5 'veterans' + Hatooka and 3 newcomerswho are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 23. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 13 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Terunofuji.

Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order).

Final tie-breaker: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi noon JST.

-----

Simplified entry template:

1. Terunofuji W-L
2. Ura KKMK
3. Ichiyamamoto KKMK
4. Meisei W-L
5. Shishi KKMK
6. Fujikawa KKMK
7. Hagiwara KKMK
8. Shimoyama KKMK
9. Chiyoshoma KKMK
10. Kotoyusho KKMK
11. Awanokuni KKMK
12. Akitoba KKMK
13. Mitakeumi W-L
14. Kaisho KKMK

TB xx

-----

Good luck!

Edited by Asashosakari

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 1. Terunofuji         13 
 2. Ura                      KK
 3. Ichiyamamoto   KK
 4. Meisei                 9 
 5. Shishi                  KK
 6. Fujikawa             KK
 7. Hagiwara            MK
 8. Shimoyama        KK
 9. Chiyoshoma       MK
10. Kotoyusho         KK
11. Awanokuni        KK
12. Akitoba              KK
13. Mitakeumi         9 
14. Kaisho               KK

 TB: 14

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1. Terunofuji          13
2. Ura                             MK
3. Ichiyamamoto         MK
4. Meisei                  8
5. Shishi                                 KK
6. Fujikawa                  MK
7. Hagiwara                           KK
8. Shimoyama                       KK
9. Chiyoshoma           MK
10. Kotoyusho            MK
11. Awanokuni           MK
12. Akitoba                 MK
13. Mitakeumi      9
14. Kaisho                              KK

TB 12

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1. Terunofuji 13-2
2. Ura MK
3. Ichiyamamoto MK
4. Meisei 8-7
5. Shishi MK
6. Fujikawa KK
7. Hagiwara MK
8. Shimoyama MK
9. Chiyoshoma MK
10. Kotoyusho KK
11. Awanokuni KK
12. Akitoba KK
13. Mitakeumi 9-6
14. Kaisho MK

TB 14

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1. Terunofuji 14-1
2. Ura KK
3. Ichiyamamoto KK
4. Meisei 6-9
5. Shishi KK
6. Fujikawa MK
7. Hagiwara KK
8. Shimoyama KK
9. Chiyoshoma MK
10. Kotoyusho KK
11. Awanokuni MK
12. Akitoba KK
13. Mitakeumi 9-6
14. Kaisho MK

TB 12

 

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1. Terunofuji 12-3
2. Ura MK
3. Ichiyamamoto MK
4. Meisei 7-8
5. Shishi KK
6. Fujikawa KK
7. Hagiwara KK
8. Shimoyama MK
9. Chiyoshoma KK
10. Kotoyusho MK
11. Awanokuni MK
12. Akitoba KK
13. Mitakeumi 9-6
14. Kaisho MK

TB 13

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On 08/09/2021 at 16:20, Asashosakari said:

1. Terunofuji 12-3
2. Ura KK
3. Ichiyamamoto MK
4. Meisei 8-7
5. Shishi MK
6. Fujikawa MK
7. Hagiwara MK
8. Shimoyama KK
9. Chiyoshoma MK
10. Kotoyusho MK
11. Awanokuni KK
12. Akitoba KK
13. Mitakeumi 9-6
14. Kaisho KK

TB 13

-----

Good luck!

 

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LKS Nov 21

 

1. Terunofuji 13

2. Ura KK

3. Ichiyamamoto MK

4. Meisei MK

5. Shishi KK

6. Fujikawa MK

7. Hagiwara KK

8. Shimoyama KK

9. Chiyoshoma MK

10. Kotoyusho MK

11. Awanokuni MK

12. Akitoba KK

13. Mitakeumi 8

14. Kaisho KK

 

TB 10

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 1. Terunofuji     12-3
 2. Ura            MK
 3. Ichiyamamoto    KK
 4. Meisei          7-8
 5. Shishi          KK
 6. Fujikawa        KK
 7. Hagiwara        KK
 8. Shimoyama       KK
 9. Chiyoshoma      MK
10. Kotoyusho       KK
11. Awanokuni       KK
12. Akitoba         MK
13. Mitakeumi      9-6
14. Kaisho          MK

TB: 12

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1. Terunofuji 15-0
2. Ura KK
3. Ichiyamamoto KK
4. Meisei 8-7
5. Shishi KK
6. Fujikawa KK
7. Hagiwara KK
8. Shimoyama KK
9. Chiyoshoma KK
10. Kotoyusho KK
11. Awanokuni KK
12. Akitoba KK
13. Mitakeumi 9-6
14. Kaisho KK

TB 16

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1.  Terunofuji        14 - 1
2.   Ura                    KK
3.   Ichiyamamoto KK
4.   Meisei              8 - 7
5.   Shishi               MK
6.   Fujikawa          MK
7.   Hagiwara         MK
8.   Shimoyama     KK
9.   Chiyoshoma   MK
10. Kotoyusho      MK
11. Awanokuni     KK
12. Akitoba           KK
13. Mitakeumi     9 - 6
14. Kaisho            KK

TB 14

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1. Terunofuji 13-2
2. Ura KK
3. Ichiyamamoto KK
4. Meisei 8-7
5. Shishi KK
6. Fujikawa MK
7. Hagiwara KK
8. Shimoyama KK
9. Chiyoshoma KK
10. Kotoyusho KK
11. Awanokuni MK
12. Akitoba KK
13. Mitakeumi 8-7
14. Kaisho MK

TB 13

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On 08/09/2021 at 23:20, Asashosakari said:

1. Terunofuji 14-1
2. Ura KK
3. Ichiyamamoto KK
4. Meisei 9-6
5. Shishi MK
6. Fujikawa MK
7. Hagiwara KK
8. Shimoyama KK
9. Chiyoshoma MK
10. Kotoyusho KK
11. Awanokuni MK
12. Akitoba KK
13. Mitakeumi 9-6
14. Kaisho KK

TB 13

 

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And finally...

Player Teru Ura I'moto Meisei Shishi Fuji Hagi Shimo Chiyo Koto Awano Akito Mita Kaisho   TB   Cons
Profomisakari - 13-2 + + + 9-6 + + - + - + + + + 9-6 + 14 1.46
chishafuwaku - 13-2 - - + 8-7 + - + + - - - - + 9-6 + 12 1.73
ryafuji - 13-2 - - + 8-7 - + - - - + + + + 9-6 - 14 1.95
Hakuryuho + 14-1 + + - MK + - + + - + - + + 9-6 - 12 1.57
WAKATAKE - 12-3 - - - MK + + + - + - - + + 9-6 - 13 2.04
Sakura - 12-3 + - + 8-7 - - - + - - + + + 9-6 + 13 1.63
Ryoshishokunin - 13-2 + - - MK + - + + - - - + - 8-7 + 10 1.73
Rocks - 12-3 - + - MK + + + + - + + - + 9-6 - 12 1.82
Jejima + 15-0 + + + 8-7 + + + + + + + + + 9-6 + 16 1.63
Athenayama + 14-1 + + + 8-7 - - - + - - + + + 9-6 + 14 1.68
Holleshoryu - 13-2 + + + 8-7 + - + + + + - + - 8-7 - 13 1.73
Tameiki + 14-1 + + + 9-6 - - + + - + - + + 9-6 + 13 1.52
  4:8 8:4 7:5 8:4 8:4 5:7 8:4 10:2 3:9 7:5 6:6 10:2 10:2 7:5    
Results - - - + - - + - - + + - + +    


Sanyaku targets of 14-1 for Terunofuji, 8-7 for Meisei and 9-6 for Mitakeumi.

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Day 7

An early exit from future ballot consideration for Kototaisei with an 0-4 start.

Day 8

Kachikoshi for new yokozuna Terunofuji.

Day 9

First points scored courtesy of Chiyoshoma's quick MK, which was predicted correctly by most players. In Sadanohikari and Kyoda two more backup rikishi departed the competition.

Day 10

And another ballot makekoshi, on this day for Shishi, expected by only a minority of entrants.
 

Day 10:
2/14 Decisions, TB 1-18
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Sakura 2 13
1 Tameiki 2 13
3 Athenayama 2 14
3 ryafuji 2 14
5 Ryoshishokunin 1 10
6 chishafuwaku 1 12
6 Hakuryuho 1 12
6 Rocks 1 12
9 Profomisakari 1 14
10 Holleshoryu 0 13
10 WAKATAKE 0 13
12 Jejima 0 16

 

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Day 11

The busiest day of Aki basho in LKS terms. Three more balloteers fell to MK with Ichiyamamoto, Fujikawa and Shimoyama, while semi-prospect Hagiwara became the first non-sanyaku to defend his KK streak. He was joined by Mitakeumi, who remained one win away from meeting his target record for now.

Two rikishi assured themselves of a ballot debut for Kyushu on Day 11 as well with Hiradoumi and much-hyped Atamifuji.

Nobody scored the full four points, mostly because only two ballot submissions featured a negative vote on Shimoyama. One of these players led the way with three correct predictions, joined by another duo who got everything right but Shimoyama.

None of Day 10's leading quartet was among the top scorers, so...
 

Day 11:
6/14 Decisions, TB 5-15
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Ryoshishokunin 4 10
2 chishafuwaku 4 12
3 Sakura 4 13
3 Tameiki 4 13
5 ryafuji 4 14
6 Hakuryuho 3 12
7 WAKATAKE 3 13
8 Athenayama 3 14
9 Rocks 2 12
10 Holleshoryu 2 13
11 Profomisakari 1 14
12 Jejima 1 16

 

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Day 12

More downer results with Ura's makekoshi, as well as Terunofuji picking up loss #2 to fall short of his 14-1 target. Backup duo Hatooka and Arauma also became the latest rikishi who did not complete a fifth straight KK for ballot inclusion.

Two of five leaders stayed in front:
 

Day 12:
8/14 Decisions, TB 5-12
Pos Player Pts TB
1 chishafuwaku 6 12
2 ryafuji 6 14
3 Ryoshishokunin 5 10
4 Sakura 5 13
4 WAKATAKE 5 13
6 Rocks 4 12
7 Tameiki 4 13
8 Hakuryuho 3 12
9 Athenayama 3 14
9 Holleshoryu 3 13
11 Profomisakari 2 14
12 Jejima 1 16


Only the three leaders and their two immediate pursuers were still in with a shot at the yusho at this point.

Edited by Asashosakari

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Day 13

Finally another KK as we entered the basho home stretch: Fairly unheralded youngster Awanokuni collected his sixth straight winning record. Fellow young rikishi Akitoba fell just short in his last bout, however.
 

Day 13:
10/14 Decisions, TB 6-11
Pos Player Pts TB
1 chishafuwaku 7 12
1 ryafuji 7 14
3 Rocks 6 12
3 Sakura 6 13
5 Ryoshishokunin 5 10
6 WAKATAKE 5 13
7 Athenayama 4 14
7 Tameiki 4 13
9 Hakuryuho 3 12
9 Holleshoryu 3 13
9 Profomisakari 3 14
12 Jejima 2 16


Akitoba's makekoshi ended Sakura's limited yusho chances. WAKATAKE and Ryoshishokunin retained small possibilities to dislodge the two leaders, but WAKATAKE needed three specific ballot results to go his way, and Ryoshishokunin even all four and the two off-ballot ones (in order to win via tie-breaker, his only chance).

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Day 14

All remaining ballot outcomes were delayed to senshuraku in the end, only the final two ballot pretenders saw their results finalized on the penultimate day: Otsuji obtained his last-minute kachikoshi to move on to Kyushu basho, while veteran Sasakiyama unfortunately dropped to 3-4.

No change in the standings, but Ryoshishokunin was eliminated from contention anyway; he required wins by both Otsuji and Sasakiyama. The actual results left him still with a shot at either the joint lead or the tie-breaker score, but not both.

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Day 15

What could have been a suspenseful senshuraku race was over after the first relevant match, as Kotoyusho's clinching of his KK served to remove both chishafuwaku and WAKATAKE from the title picture, leaving ryafuji as the last man standing. Congrats on your third career yusho and second of 2021!

Further results saw KK for Kaisho in juryo as well as Meisei in makuuchi (moving him up to his target record). And last not least Mitakeumi secured his 9-6 target at the last time of asking, following three straight losses since he had earned his Day 11 KK.

Overall we end with a two-way tie at the top, throwing us to a bracket playoff which was decided in ryafuji's favour on the fifth slot (Shishi's MK) against runner-up chishafuwaku.

The final standings for Aki 2021:
 

Day 15:
14/14 Decisions, TB 10
Pos Player Pts TB
1 ryafuji 10 14
2 chishafuwaku 10 12
3 Sakura 9 13
4 Rocks 8 12
4 Tameiki 8 13
6 Athenayama 7 14
6 Profomisakari 7 14
8 Ryoshishokunin 6 10
9 Jejima 6 16
9 WAKATAKE 6 13
11 Hakuryuho 5 12
11 Holleshoryu 5 13


For the third straight basho just one player managed to hit the TB.


The new ballot for Kyushu 2021:

 1. Terunofuji     15
    Ura            10
    Ichiyamamoto    8
 2. Meisei          8
    Shishi          7*
    Fujikawa        7
 3. Hagiwara        8*
 4. Hokuseiho       6*
    Shimoyama       6*
    Chiyoshoma      5
 5. Kotoyusho       6
 6. Awanokuni       6
    Akitoba         5
 7. Mitakeumi       5
 8. Kaisho          5
 9. Hiradoumi       5
10. Otsuji          5
11. Atamifuji       5*
---
12. Abi             4
13. Terasawa        4

Featuring Hokuseiho after his second Covid-19 timeout, of course, plus bad boy Abi and sekitori debutant Terasawa (name changing to Asanowaka).

Edited by Asashosakari
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Scores for banzuke purposes:

ryafuji    11 (10+Top)
chishafuwaku 11 (10+Top)
Sakura 9
Rocks 8
Tameiki 8
Athenayama 7
Profomisakari 7
Ryoshishokunin 7 (6+TB)
Jejima 6
WAKATAKE 6
Hakuryuho 5
Holleshoryu 5

Total: 90 / 12 = 7.50 ---> no adjustment


The new banzuke for Kyushu 2021:

Asashosakari (Yw kosho)  Y   Mmikasazuma (Ye 0-0-15)
Athenayama (Oe 7-8)      O   chishafuwaku (S2w 11-4 D)
ryafuji (M3w 11-4 Y)     S   Sakura (M2w 9-6)
Rocks (M1w 8-7)          K   Profomisakari (S1w 7-8)
Tameiki (NR 8-7)         M1  Jejima (Kw 6-9)
Hakuryuho (S1e 5-10)     M2  WAKATAKE (M1e 6-9)
robnplunder (M3e kosho)  M3  Ryoshishokunin (NR 7-8)
Holleshoryu (M2e 5-10)   M4  Kashunowaka (Ke 0-0-15)

The first perfectly-sized sanyaku in LKS history. B-) Too bad it has come on the heels of both yokozuna being absent. On the plus side, a very much deserved immediate return to the ozeki rank for chishafuwaku following his yusho-doten performance.

And a belated welcome to newcomer Tameiki as well as to Ryoshishokunin who had dropped off the banzuke after three missed tournaments.

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