Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Nagoya 2021

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1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

That isn't the bad part (slightly biased, speaking as someone whose first job was to attempt to scrape over a million records), but once you have data you have to decide how to store it, which is the problem. I couldn't decide if I should store it on a per-rikishi basis or on a basho basis.

Per-rikishi makes more sense, but I really didn't want the NN to screw up and learn promotion trends based on rikishi rather than result. Unless there's a solution to that in terms of restraining what the NN learns from.

If we go deeper into this is it still technically on topic, or should we open up a new thread in Ozumo Discussions?

No offence but most of the last two pages have been rather off-topic for me. I wonder if I'm the only one here who doesn't play GTB. I'm interested in the sanyaku placings and between division promotions, not predicting a whole banzuke. Just waiting for Asashosakari's Day 15 wrap up...

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I couldn't decide if I should store it on a per-rikishi basis or on a basho basis.

Per-rikishi makes more sense, but I really didn't want the NN to screw up and learn promotion trends based on rikishi rather than result.

The issue of who a rikishi faces during a basho very rarely makes much of a difference.  What matters more is whether they are in the top X rikishi to finish a basho, where X is approximately 16.  That won't exactly tell you who had a full joi schedule, but will give you a very good idea, and you generally will only need to distinguish between "joi schedule" and "not joi schedule", even though of course there will be people with partial joi schedules, and you can basically determine that by counting from the top of the banzuke.  Thus, I think all you really need is the number of wins of each rikishi and their rank on the previous banzuke.  It might not be perfect, but getting it perfect would require a whole lot more work for minimal gain.

 

Edited by Gurowake

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2 hours ago, ryafuji said:

No offence but most of the last two pages have been rather off-topic for me. I wonder if I'm the only one here who doesn't play GTB. I'm interested in the sanyaku placings and between division promotions, not predicting a whole banzuke. Just waiting for Asashosakari's Day 15 wrap up...

Well, for sanyaku it depends if the committee feels that Asanoyama should take up a whole sekiwake slot himself, or if he should go to S2 and Meisei gets sekiwake which means ichinojo slots into komusubi. Usually an 8-7 isn't enough to force a 3rd Sekiwake slot but strange times...

For makuuchi, Yutakayama and Mitoryu up, and Daiamami and unlucky Chiyonokuni down probably. But we are all just guessing anyway, so what do you think?

And once you've guessed up your promotion/demotions, that's half the battle. Might as well fill out the rest of the banzuke and submit it to GTB!

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2 hours ago, ryafuji said:

No offence but most of the last two pages have been rather off-topic for me. I wonder if I'm the only one here who doesn't play GTB.

I've never once played, and don't plan to. I had some thoughts of trying to train some sumo-related ML models once, but that was out of curiosity for how well I could predict things, and not to try to play online sumo games.

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Posted (edited)

This has relevance for GTB players,  but for the rikishi and the kyokai themselves, it doesn't really matter what they do.  Life will go on.  None of the involved appear to be on an Ozeki run.

Edited by Asojima

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4 hours ago, Asojima said:

This has relevance for GTB players,  but for the rikishi and the kyokai themselves, it doesn't really matter what they do.  Life will go on.  None of the involved appear to be on an Ozeki run.

Not that any of us see this happening, but if Ichinojo were to string together two more double-digit basho, with say 23-25 wins, it could well make a difference whether he's ranked M1e or K at Aki—one joi maegashira basho occasionally counts as the start of a run, but two never have.

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8 hours ago, Reonito said:

Not that any of us see this happening, but if Ichinojo were to string together two more double-digit basho, with say 23-25 wins, it could well make a difference whether he's ranked M1e or K at Aki—one joi maegashira basho occasionally counts as the start of a run, but two never have.

12-13 wins at M1e would force an extra sanyaku slot, so if it was the start of an ozeki run it would be the only maegashira result.

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4 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

12-13 wins at M1e would force an extra sanyaku slot, so if it was the start of an ozeki run it would be the only maegashira result.

Sorry, I wasn't clear, I was thinking of the current 10-5 at M2w as a potential (if unlikely) start of a run, but only if he's ranked in sanyaku for the next basho.

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On 22/07/2021 at 18:10, ryafuji said:

No offence but most of the last two pages have been rather off-topic for me. I wonder if I'm the only one here who doesn't play GTB. I'm interested in the sanyaku placings and between division promotions, not predicting a whole banzuke. Just waiting for Asashosakari's Day 15 wrap up...

Thank you. I share your feeling.

This used to be my favourite post during bashos and I was always waiting for Day 10 to read what Asashosakari had to say. Nowadays it is very rare for me to open it. It's just off topic comments from people that just want to write something, just because...

Think that even Asashosakari has been losing interest.

Yes, I know my post might offend some users, but if you are one of them, there are so many topics already where you can post something every 5 minutes, so don't go spoil the quality topics that many people come here to read, just because you have a need to write in every topic, even if it is to say nothing or just repeat what someone just said.

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Fair enough. What does everyone think of creating a dedicated GTB discussion thread in the Sumo Games subforum and splitting off all GTB-related matters there, leaving Asashosakari's thread behind in its original form?

There's an additional advantage in that we can create a long-running archive for it, instead of having it fragmented over each basho.

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