Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Nagoya 2021

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I had it mapped out that way too, but I see @Asashosakari's point that despite the numbers, the banzuke committee could easily give the nod to Takanosho over Hoshoryu if both win.

I agree.  I wasn't looking too hard and failed to notice that Takanosho was still in contention for a KK.  It's definitely likely that he will get the spot at 8-7 over a victorious Hoshoryu, having to endure a full sanyaku schedule and being a former Sekiwake while Hoshoryu had only a few sanyaku opponents, neither of the top guys, and would be making a sanyaku debut.

You could even make the same argument that Hokutofuji should get the slot before Hoshoryu even if the former loses, but that's a bit further to go.

Edited by Gurowake

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

the sanyaku soroibumi comprising the participants of the final three bouts of the basho will actually feature 6 sanyaku-ranked wrestlers for the first time since Haru 2019.

Wow.  That's unbelievable.  I guess a lot of them were due to not having the ability to still have 3 such matches after withdrawals.  There also were a lot of low score lines recently that made them bring up maegashira to fight the high rankers, but I'm really surprised that one of those two (or something else, like the theoretical skipping of the match this basho) happened each tournament for so long.

Edited by Gurowake

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29 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

You could even make the same argument that Hokutofuji should get the slot before Hoshoryu even if the former loses, but that's a bit further to go.

Yeah, it would be hard to justify jumping an 8-win M3 over a 10-win M5, especially after a head-to-head win by the latter.

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Tokushoryu just won to go 7-8 at M15w. Does this mean there's no room in maku'uchi for Mitoryu (12-3 at J6w)?

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Shodai just defeated Takayasu to stave off kadoban, but also clog up sanyaku - in combination with Meisei's KK earlier today and Asanoyama's scheduled demotion, there won't be space for sanyaku debutants next basho.

Maegashira joi likely to be Ichinojo, Takanosho, Hoshoryu and Hokutofuji.

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1 hour ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Tokushoryu just won to go 7-8 at M15w. Does this mean there's no room in maku'uchi for Mitoryu (12-3 at J6w)?

It seems that way.  Yutakayma (10-5, J1E) should get the lone promotion.  Mitoryu should hope that there is an intai or two at the Makuuchi rank. 

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Could we not have avoided spoilers in this topic.

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2 minutes ago, lackmaker said:

Could we not have avoided spoilers in this topic.

Why even enter any of these threads if you don't already know the results?!  (Scratchingchin...)

 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

It seems that way.  Yutakayma (10-5, J1E) should get the lone promotion.  Mitoryu should hope that there is an intai or two at the Makuuchi rank. 

Not likely, I don't think. The only double-digit howlers are from single-digit maegashira ranks (Okinoumi, who has been shuttling between M10+- and the joi for a few basho now, the obviously in-over-their-heads trio of Kotoeko, Chiyotairyu and Tobizaru), sanyaku-class rikishi having a bad basho (Wakatakakage, Daieisho, Endo), or elevator rikishi (Daiamami).

Maybe the only ones likely to retire are Okinoumi (but Kotoyuki is sitting on his kabu right now) and Tochinoshin (if and only if he decides he's had enough), but I don't foresee any retirements from makuuchi between this basho and the next.

Edited by Seiyashi

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6 minutes ago, lackmaker said:

Could we not have avoided spoilers in this topic.

How is this thread possible without spoilers?

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Chiyonokuni has gone 7-8 at M16e, so he's one rung below Tokushoryu. Could that open the door for Mitoryu? It certainly looks as though at least one of this trio is going to be the recipient of a huge portion of banzuke bad luck.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Chiyonokuni has gone 7-8 at M16e, so he's one rung below Tokushoryu. Could that open the door for Mitoryu? It certainly looks as though at least one of this trio is going to be the recipient of a huge portion of banzuke bad luck.

I think it will. Kotoshoho's last 12-3J also from J6, gave him the up over Meisei, who at M17e (in a banzuke extending to M18e) also went 7-8, with at least one other surefire demotable rikishi (Daiamami in both scenarios, will you believe it or not). So it should be Yutakayama and Mitoryu going up at the expense of Chiyonokuni and Daiamami, and no other exchanges; I doubt Tokushoryu's 7-8 2 ranks above juryo is bad enough to justify exchanging him for Akua's 8-7 at J2.

Edited by Seiyashi

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1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

Shodai just defeated Takayasu to stave off kadoban, but also clog up sanyaku - in combination with Meisei's KK earlier today and Asanoyama's scheduled demotion, there won't be space for sanyaku debutants next basho.

Maegashira joi likely to be Ichinojo, Takanosho, Hoshoryu and Hokutofuji.

The phantom presence of Asanoyama on the banzuke is going to cost Meisei a sekiwake promotion and Ichinojo a return to sanyaku. Wouldn't it be fairer to have 3 sekiwake with Asanoyama as the hanger (not the proper term I know but I'm sure you get the meaning).

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

The phantom presence of Asanoyama on the banzuke is going to cost Meisei a sekiwake promotion and Ichinojo a return to sanyaku. Wouldn't it be fairer to have 3 sekiwake with Asanoyama as the hanger (not the proper term I know but I'm sure you get the meaning).

I believe the term you're looking for is haridashi. And yes, personally I'm sympathetic to that option, but technically speaking it's unprecedented so we really don't know what this banzuke committee will do.

For GTB purposes I think a lot of people are going to go with the sanyaku clog option (i.e. no S2e Asanoyama), but I'm inclined to agree with you and actually send in the haridashi option as my GTB, seeing how crazy the shimpan have been recently.

Edited by Seiyashi
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25 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

The phantom presence of Asanoyama on the banzuke is going to cost Meisei a sekiwake promotion and Ichinojo a return to sanyaku. Wouldn't it be fairer to have 3 sekiwake with Asanoyama as the hanger (not the proper term I know but I'm sure you get the meaning).

I believe they will treat Asanoyama as if he isn't there as far as promotions. Meisei will get a Sekiwake slot. Also think Chiyonokuni goes down to Juryo. Harsh but it would be harsher to keep Mitoryu down with 12 wins and a yusho. 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Rocks said:

I believe they will treat Asanoyama as if he isn't there as far as promotions. Meisei will get a Sekiwake slot. Also think Chiyonokuni goes down to Juryo. Harsh but it would be harsher to keep Mitoryu down with 12 wins and a yusho. 

Hm. That's interesting. Straw poll of the regular denizens of this thread: haridashi or non-haridashi Asanoyama? Seems to be 3-0 so far, although if I read Asashosakari's comments in another thread to mean what I think he means it seems we might be 4-0.

So the haridashi Asanoyama option might not be the hipster one after all.

(I'm aware the term is technically deprecated, but it seems the most useful to describe what Asanoyama is in relation to the banzuke at the moment - a hanger-on.)

Edited by Seiyashi

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49 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Straw poll of the regular denizens of this thread: haridashi or non-haridashi Asanoyama?

Should it happen? YES

Will it happen? Absolutely no idea.

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Heart says haridashi. 

Head says no haridashi. 

Haven't done a draft banzuke yet though 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I think it will. Kotoshoho's last 12-3J also from J6, gave him the up over Meisei, who at M17e (in a banzuke extending to M18e) also went 7-8, with at least one other surefire demotable rikishi (Daiamami in both scenarios, will you believe it or not).

The next banzuke ended at only M17w though, so the optics of demoting Meisei weren't nearly as bad as they would be with Chiyonokuni, who might have to get demoted from M16e all the way past M17w (if two sekiwake).

Edited by Asashosakari

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3 hours ago, Athenayama said:

Why even enter any of these threads if you don't already know the results?!  (Scratchingchin...)

 

It's more about the timing. Not having the chance to see it live and trying to catch up with comments. The basho thread usually has a spoiler alert which should be the place for instant reaction. But hey, I get it, some like to be first with opinions.

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Banzuke making is my area of least expertise here, but... Would you say the fact we know Asanoyama isn't competing at all, is likely to influence the decision? As in, put him as haridashi since there's be a de facto gap in the titled ranks.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

The next banzuke ended at only M17w though, so the optics of demoting Meisei weren't nearly bad as they would be with Chiyonokuni, who might have to get demoted from M16e all the way past M17w (if two sekiwake).

I might jump ship to the non-haridashi hype train if it means Chiyonokuni has a higher chance of makujiri'ng his way back to the makuuchi section of the banzuke, honestly. I hadn't considered that.

Edited by Koorifuu

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3 hours ago, Katooshu said:

How is this thread possible without spoilers?

To be fair, the main basho thread is supposed to be the only place for spoilers while the basho is ongoing. 

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, ryafuji said:

To be fair, the main basho thread is supposed to be the only place for spoilers while the basho is ongoing. 

Well, the question is, how long is a spoiler ban in effect? Because when Naganoyama updates the leaderboards and heya watch posts an hour after the basho, presumably those threads are also spoilery, no?

Admittedly we are almost in play-by-play commentary mode here, but still...

I do take the point though if we have been grossly transgressing on a rule of Forum procedure.

Edited by Seiyashi

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4 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Well, the question is, how long is a spoiler ban in effect? Because when Naganoyama updates the leaderboards and heya watch posts an hour after the basho, presumably those threads are also spoilery, no?

Admittedly we are almost in play-by-play commentary mode here, but still...

I do take the point though if we have been grossly transgressing on a rule of Forum procedure.

I get that - there's a balance to be struck. I don't think there's a set time. This early many people probably haven't had a chance to watch the matches yet. On the other hand, you could say why read this thread before watching the matches. 

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