How many yusho will Terunofuji win in his career?

[Eikokurai 3,437]

As of May 2021, Terunofuji has four yusho, just two less than recent retiree Yokozuna Kakuryu and five fewer than Harumafuji. Who of these will he surpass and how many can he manage in total?

Edited June 10, 2021 by Eikokurai

[Seiyashi 4,106]

I think he will at least want to match Harumafuji for old times' sake. And ironically, once he gets the rope he can actually take his foot off the pedal a little; he doesn't need to put together as many outstanding back to back performances as he has to right now. Between the motivation and the better pacing, he might be good for a few more yusho in this period, especially as his only reliable challengers (i.e. only persons likely to give him much trouble) are Takakeisho and Takayasu.

[Swami 245]

Perhaps 6 to 7 tops, I know all seems to be going well now, but he is still walking a tightrope - the next bad injury may well be curtains for his career.  It was unfortunate that the last four years being ravaged by injury robbed Terunofuji of being at his peak.

Swami

[just_some_guy 281]

This, like everything else involving him, is just asking "how long will he hold together before he retires?"

With Hakuho fading, Terunofuji has to be the favorite going into every tournament, but yeah.... injuries.

So my guess is 8-9 since he seems to be as stable as we could hope, but who knows? Every basho could be his last.

[chishafuwaku 476]

16+. In this quality desert, his knees don't need to be strained to the max...

[Godango 1,001]

My gut says 8-9, and my head says everything Terunofuji has done since his return has far exceeded expectations.

 

Hedged my bets with 10-11.

[Sakura 1,493]

22 minutes ago, chishafuwaku said:

16+. In this quality desert, 

I'm hungry and I misread that. ...

... We need an ice-cream emoticon.

[WAKATAKE 2,667]

I think he'll get to 8. A 14-1, 13-2 x 2, and one more 12-3

[Eikokurai 3,437]

5 hours ago, chishafuwaku said:

16+. In this quality desert, his knees don't need to be strained to the max...

Wow. He has the talent for sure, but another 12 yusho minimum requires at least two more years active, and that’s if he breaks all sumo records and wins every basho for two years straight. Realistically it will take 3-4 years to accrue that many. At nearly 30 years old, I wonder if he can last out.

[Pitinosato 120]

This mainly depends on his physical condition

depending on his knees everything is possible between 4 and 15...

Pitinosato

[Churaumi 743]

I call him for 8-9, he's going to dominate for the next year or so, but I doubt he has much time left as such.

[Kaminariyuki 499]

I could see this going in almost any direction except dai-yokozuna. There are too many other credible contenders and a new crop of hungry youngsters coming up the banzuke.

[Seiyashi 4,106]

48 minutes ago, Kaminariyuki said:

I could see this going in almost any direction except dai-yokozuna. There are too many other credible contenders and a new crop of hungry youngsters coming up the banzuke.

While I agree dai-yokozuna is a long shot, I wouldn't rule it out for the reasons stated. IMO Takakeisho is more likely to torpedo Terunofuji's dai-yokozuna hopes than any of those youngsters who have yet to establish themselves much less prove to be serious yusho contenders at the moment.

[Kaminariyuki 499]

20 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

While I agree dai-yokozuna is a long shot, I wouldn't rule it out for the reasons stated. IMO Takakeisho is more likely to torpedo Terunofuji's dai-yokozuna hopes than any of those youngsters who have yet to establish themselves much less prove to be serious yusho contenders at the moment.

Well, particularly judging from the last day of sumo, I'd have to agree, but those knees. I've had two ACL surgeries myself so I can relate to this issue. I'd read that he had a little difficulty getting down on the tatami for his ozeki ceremony. This might have been overstated as he's certainly looked ozeki-worthy the last couple of basho.

[Seiyashi 4,106]

21 minutes ago, Kaminariyuki said:

Well, particularly judging from the last day of sumo, I'd have to agree, but those knees. I've had two ACL surgeries myself so I can relate to this issue. I'd read that he had a little difficulty getting down on the tatami for his ozeki ceremony. This might have been overstated as he's certainly looked ozeki-worthy the last couple of basho.

Oh yeah, there's always the knees. Ajigawa was actually commenting throughout the basho that Terunofuji's knees were actually not in a good condition before the basho, and not during it either. Injury and Takakeisho are the things most likely to stand in the way of yusho, not some whippersnappers who at most will run away with the Hatsu basho if that trends continue.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

15 hours ago, Kaminariyuki said:

I could see this going in almost any direction except dai-yokozuna. There are too many other credible contenders and a new crop of hungry youngsters coming up the banzuke.

It's a tantalising target though. Six more yusho over, say, two years is certainly doable if his health holds up. That will surpass Harumafuji and earn him the 'dai' status.

[Seiyashi 4,106]

1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

It's a tantalising target though. Six more yusho over, say, two years is certainly doable if his health holds up. That will surpass Harumafuji and earn him the 'dai' status.

Quick clarification - dai-yokozuna is 10 yusho as yokozuna, or a yokozuna who has won 10 yusho over his whole career including any before his promotion?

[Eikokurai 3,437]

20 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Quick clarification - dai-yokozuna is 10 yusho as yokozuna, or a yokozuna who has won 10 yusho over his whole career including any before his promotion?

I’ve always taken it to mean total.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/sports/2019/10/23/sumo/quest-capture-10-titles-tough-challenge-current-crop-star-wrestlers/

[Kaminariyuki 499]

4 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

I’ve always taken it to mean total.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/sports/2019/10/23/sumo/quest-capture-10-titles-tough-challenge-current-crop-star-wrestlers/

Great article, thanks. And, thanks to Seiyashi for the question. I'd always assumed it was only a general term with no specific definition. The article alludes to that view but then defines it. As an engineer/scientist, I rather appreciate solid definitions when possible.

[Churaumi 743]

The closest non-Hakuho yokozuna we've had in my sumo-watching years was Harumafuji, and I remember Parr of the disappointment with that situation was he was considered one yusho short of dai-yokozuna status.

[Katooshu 3,265]

Anywhere in the 5-10 range seems realistic. A lot depends on how his body holds up and that can be tough to predict; if he crumples a few basho from now would it really be much of a shock?

But I think, even with just another year in his current form, he'll reach at least 6-7, and I get the sense that he is very focused on doing the right things in his training, lifestyle, and sumo these days to maximize his longevity.

Hmmm...I'll say he ends up with 7-8

Edited July 26, 2021 by Katooshu

[Kishinoyama 595]

I chose 6-7. I hope that he proves me wrong! 

[Sue 508]

Now that he can rest his knees from time to time without penalty (other than the YDC squawking at him), my estimate goes up.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

Well, the five people who voted for 4-5 are out of the running. Six yusho* for Terunofuji now.

 

*While I don’t wish to denigrate the man’s achievements—he’s obviously a major talent and will win championships regardless—I put a teensy weensy little asterisk because in retrospect that hiramaku yusho from M17 looks more and more like a gimme. Sure, at the time we were all swept up in the romance of the comeback, but now we know his level, we can see that that basho was a snooze for him.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

Why is the poll closed to new votes? I don’t remember putting a deadline on it.