Death Note: Wakanohana III's Unfortunate Predictions

[Seiyashi 4,071]

Changelog:

• 5/7/21: Nagoya 2021 prediction: Terunofuji.
• 18/7/21: Nagoya 2021 conclusions: Hakuho wins, ensuring Wakanohana's duck remains quacking.
• 12/9/21: Aki 2021 prediction: Terunofuji.
• 26/9/21: Aki 2021 conclusions: Terunofuji takes the yusho, and Wakanohana finally breaks his duck.
• 14/11/21: Kyushu 2021 prediction: Daieisho. I'll update the table after the basho.
• 28/11/21: Kyushu 2021 conclusions: Terunofuji wins and Daieisho barely KKs, reviving Wakanohana's duck. Also struckout the original writeup which was only correct as of Natsu 2021.

Ever since Wakanohana became a regular guest commentator on Abema's sumo broadcasts, he's been asked to predict the eventual yusho winner. Notoriously, he's failed to get it right every single time, although his prediction of Takakeisho this (Natsu 2021) basho was arguably the closest he's ever been.

I also seem to recall he has been predicting since before 2019 Nagoya, and he has nakabi predictions in the basho where his original pick has gone kyujo or otherwise flunked, but I can't find reliable sources for most of them so I haven't bothered. But of course if anyone has this information, please feel free to tell me (whether by replies or DM) and I will try and maintain that information.

This table was compiled from screencaps of Abema's own tabulations I can find on Twitter, supplemented by tweets from Abema viewers. Hokutofuji is in red because I cannot confirm that that was the prediction made; screencaps from Abema for the relevant basho show "No prediction" but tweets obliquely suggest that Hokutofuji was suggested. Whether this was in jest or otherwise I cannot confirm.

Here's a compilation of his predictions and the actual yusho winner. I feel like there's a game to be made out of predicting the prediction and predicting when Wakanohana will break the duck, but I'll leave that up to someone more versed in running sumo games or polls to do.

Basho	Shonichi	Result	Actual	Result
2021.11	Daieisho	8-7	Terunofuji	15-0 Y
2021.09	Terunofuji	13-2 Y	Terunofuji	13-2 Y
2021.07	Terunofuji	14-1 J	Hakuho	15-0 Y
2021.05	Takakeisho	12-3 D	Terunofuji	12-3 Y
2021.03	Hakuho	2-1-12	Terunofuji	12-3 Y
2021.01	Shodai	11-4 J	Daieisho	13-2 Y
2020.11	Shodai	3-2-10	Takakeisho	13-2 Y
2020.09	Takakeisho	12-3 J	Shodai	13-2 Y
2020.07	Hakuho	10-3-2	Terunofuji	13-2 Y
2020.05	No basho
2020.03	Shodai	8-7	Hakuho	13-2 Y
2020.01	Hakuho	1-3-11	Tokushoryu	14-1 Y
2019.11	Hokutofuji	7-8	Hakuho	14-1 Y
2019.09	Hakuho	0-2-13	Mitakeumi	12-3 Y
2019.07	Takayasu	8-3-4	Kakuryu	14-1 Y

Stats time! Death Note Wakanohana really lives up to it:

• • Hakuho has been his pick on 4 occasions and he has gone kyujo every single time.
  • Shodai picked thrice and Takakeisho twice.
  • The last two picks are Hokutofuji and Takayasu
• Shonichi pick has gone kyujo on 6 occasions.
  • 4 of these were Hakuho
    • 3 of these were before nakabi
  • The other 2 were Takayasu and Shodai
• Three of his picks have come close.
  • Takakeisho has gone 12-3 both times he's been picked; once he was junyusho to Shodai's 13-2, and the other (this basho) he lost the playoff to Terunofuji.
  • The other was Shodai with an 11-4 J.

Interestingly, he's never picked Terunofuji once even during the period of Terunofuji's resurgence; it's been Shodai, twice, then Hakuho and Takakeisho.

Moral of the story for Wakanohana: never pick Hakuho, and pick Takakeisho more, please!~

Edited November 28, 2021 by Seiyashi

[Yaochozuna 137]

I like how when he picks Takakeisho, it's Shodai. When he goes for Shodai next basho, it's Takakeisho. Ok, let's pick Shodai once again, that's a pattern that could work… Nope sir, it's Daieisho

[Sue 483]

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Moral of the story for Wakanohana: never pick Hakuho, and pick Takakeisho more, please!~

Why do you want to jinx poor Takakeisho?

[Seiyashi 4,071]

Just now, Sue said:

Why do you want to jinx poor Takakeisho?

Because ironically, Takakeisho has had the best results out of all his picks by a country mile (with his results improving over time), and Wakanohana's only missed Takakeisho's yusho because of Shodai's yusho the previous time round.

Setting aside the jinx joke for a bit, Takakeisho and Terunofuji are the most realistic rikishi to pick for Wakanohana to break his duck. For some reason he doesn't want to pick Terunofuji, so that leaves only Takakeisho. And Takakeisho doesn't seem to be super affected by the jinx (cf Shodai and Hakuho), so that leaves everyone relatively happy.

[Churaumi 728]

His picks are almost as bad as mine, thinking about my responses in the polls each basho.

[neonbelly 226]

That Hokutofuji pick was hot stuff.

[白魔ガシ 8]

Soooo... 

 

Are we predicting who Waka predicts now or nah? :3

I'd say now he'll finally go with Teru. If he breaks the curse the Kyokai can't look past a Yokozuna Promotion.

[Yamanashi 3,725]

"Let the midwits and hacks drool over the insane ramblings of Takanohana's  older brother.  The real cognoscenti are waiting for the skinny from Takatoriki."

Says a guy I know ... [edited to make him sound intelligent and not stupid]

[Seiyashi 4,071]

This (Nagoya 2021) basho's Death Note is for Terunofuji.

[rhyen 1,809]

23 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

This (Nagoya 2021) basho's Death Note is for Terunofuji.

Was that after he saw Takakeisho’s match?

[Seiyashi 4,071]

3 minutes ago, rhyen said:

Was that after he saw Takakeisho’s match?

No, this was on day 1. Although he must be feeling pretty relieved he didn't pick Takakeisho again this basho.

[rhyen 1,809]

6 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

No, this was on day 1. Although he must be feeling pretty relieved he didn't pick Takakeisho again this basho.

Maybe he wanted to test his jinx out, and clear the way for Takakeisho.

[Joaoiyama 306]

On 05/07/2021 at 06:21, Seiyashi said:

This (Nagoya 2021) basho's Death Note is for Terunofuji.

Hakuho yusho confirmed.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

On 07/07/2021 at 00:23, Joaoiyama said:

Hakuho yusho confirmed.

I need to get you to predict my lottery tickets...

Yes, Hakuho won with a zensho, leaving Wakanohana's duck well alive and quacking. To be fair, Wakanohana has been at least picking the right horses in the race, because his last two picks have taken things down to the wire. Will he finally pick the right horse next time?

[WAKATAKE 2,631]

11 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I need to get you to predict my lottery tickets...

Yes, Hakuho won with a zensho, leaving Wakanohana's duck well alive and quacking. To be fair, Wakanohana has been at least picking the right horses in the race, because his last two picks have taken things down to the wire. Will he finally pick the right horse next time?

He’ll pick Hakuho for Aki and somehow someway he’ll pull out mid basho

[Seiyashi 4,071]

5 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

He’ll pick Hakuho for Aki and somehow someway he’ll pull out mid basho

If the "Hakuho intais after 900 wins" theory is true then yeah, that's very likely, in which case Wakanohana should ask Hakuho to be a pallbearer at his funeral. Or maybe not. 

Edited July 19, 2021 by Seiyashi

[WAKATAKE 2,631]

On 18/07/2021 at 18:08, WAKATAKE said:

He’ll pick Hakuho for Aki and somehow someway he’ll pull out mid basho

Well now we know that he's not going to be able to pick Hakuho for Aki 2021. Does this mean he might finally get his pick right with Terunofuji???

[Kintamayama 44,354]

New gig for Wakanohana- a column on Nikkan Sports, starting Saturday the 11th. "Wakanohana's Eyes" will be its title.

[sahaven111 172]

2 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

Well now we know that he's not going to be able to pick Hakuho for Aki 2021. Does this mean he might finally get his pick right with Terunofuji???

I don't think he'll pick Terunofuji, most yokozuna don't win their first tournament.

 

[Yamanashi 3,725]

47 minutes ago, sahaven111 said:

I don't think he'll pick Terunofuji, most yokozuna don't win their first tournament.

 

So, he'll pick him!

[Seiyashi 4,071]

Legitimately, with Hakuho out of the picture, surely Terunofuji is the best bet for the yusho relative to the rest of sanyaku. I know Hakuho didn't win the yusho in his shin-yokozuna basho either, but surely Kotomitsuki, Kotooshu and Chiyotaikai were better contenders than the current crop of sanyaku? And also surely the general lack of socialisation and celebrations means Terunofuji will be in better shape/attitude heading into this basho than most shin-yokozuna.

The only real unknown now is Takakeisho's condition. If he is healthy, I'd say it's 60/30 that Terunofuji/Takakeisho take the yusho. The remaining 10% is maybe for a wildcard like Mitakeumi or Shodai or Takayasu, but I don't see those three being realistic yusho winners when there are two strong contenders.

So maybe bearing in mind the shin-yokozuna jinx, Wakanohana picks Takakeisho again - then finds out his jinx is stronger than the shin-yokozuna jinx. Of course, if Wakanohana has goss that gets him a better pulse on the rikishis' condition, then that could change.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

On 19/07/2021 at 09:08, WAKATAKE said:

He’ll pick Hakuho for Aki and somehow someway he’ll pull out mid basho

Crystal ball confirmed - except he pulled out before the basho rather than midway!

[Seiyashi 4,071]

Two in a row? For only the second time, Wakanohana sticks with the same pick two basho in a row, tipping Terunofuji to win the yusho. Admittedly, that's the most obvious and reliable choice this basho, with Hakuho out and both ozeki losing on day 1.

Stay tuned to find out if Wakanohana finally breaks his duck!

[Seiyashi 4,071]

It ain't over till the duck stops quacking, but not really, as it was over once Myogiryu lost to Meisei. Wakanohana finally breaks his duck with Terunofuji's 13-2Y.

[Yokozuna Hattorizakura 151]

Never actually thought this day would come lol. can he make it two in a row?