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Eikokurai

Tsuna runs without renzoku yusho

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@Eikokurai suggested I bring my post from the 'Natsu basho 2021' thread to here, I'm a bit clueless on how to do it effectively -- but the link is above and I'll copy the post itself below:

Alrighty, here's me with wasting time at work (and if this should move to another thread, someone let me know and/or Mods to your thing).

Since the 6-basho era, there have been 28 Yokozuna promotions.

Post-Futahaguro, there have been 12. 

----

Category 1: Back to Back Yusho

6-basho Era: 11 (39%) of promotions earned this way. No Ozeki who won back to back yusho in this time were denied. Minimum wins were 25 (Taiho, 1961).

Post-Futahaguro: 8 (67%) of promotions earned this way. No Ozeki who won back to back yusho in this time were denied. Minimum wins were 26 (Wakanohana III, 1998 & Musashimaru, 1999).

Conclusion: With 13-2 Y, Terunofuji's promotion is all but assured. 12-3 Y has historical precedent.

Category 2: Yusho + Jun-Yusho

6-basho Era: 7 (25%) of promotions earned this way. Minimum wins were 25 (Wakanohana I, 1957 & Hokutoumi, 1987). Average wins, 26.29.

Post-Futahaguro: 2 (17%) of promotions earned this way. Minimum wins were 25 (Hokutoumi, 1987). Average wins, 25.5.

Conclusion: With 13-2 JY, Terunofuji's promotion would not be unheard of.  14-1 JY would be wholly justifiable and in line with past and recent precedent.

Category 3: Yusho + Doten

6-basho Era: 2 (7%) of promotions earned this way. Minimum wins were 26 (Kitanoumi, 1974). Average wins, 27.

Post-Futahaguro: 1 (8%) of promotions earned this way. 28 wins (Kakuryu, 2014).

Conclusion: 15-D would be required for the win total precedent, but given the above on Y + JY

  • For Terunofuji 13-2 D is likely enough, 14-1 D a virtual guarantee.
  • Likewise for Takakeisho, 13-2 Y may be enough, a 14-1 Y should do the trick.

Category 4: 1 Yusho

6-basho Era: 1 (4%) of promotions happened this way, Tochinoumi 1963. 27 wins.

Post-Futahaguro: Hasn't happened.

Conclusion: 15-0 would be required to get to 27 wins. If Teru doesn't get Y/D/J, I'm sure we all agree he's no chance. I only included this for completeness.

Category 5:  2 Doten

6-basho Era: 1 (4%) of promotions happened this way, Wakanohana II 1978. 27 wins. Back-to-back 12-3D, 12-3Y wasn't enough to earn Wakanohana I promotion in 1956.

Post-Futahaguro: Hasn't happened.

Conclusion: 15-0 D would be required to get to 27 wins. You'd have to imagine they'd promote Takakeisho off the back of that. Takakeisho/Takanosho doten, anyone? I suppose at 13+ wins it would be unprecedented, and stranger things have happened.

Category 6:  1 Doten & 1 Jun-Yusho

6-basho Era: 2 (7%) of promotions happened this way, (Mienoumi 1979,  Futahaguro 1986). Average wins, 26.5.

Post-Futahaguro: Hasn't happened.

Conclusion: 15-0 would be required to get to 27 wins. Takakeisho needs doten at a minimum.

Category 7:  1 Doten 

6-basho Era: 2 (7%) of promotions happened this way, (Kashiwado 1961,  Tamanoumi 1969). Average wins, 23.

Post-Futahaguro: Hasn't happened.

Conclusion: Yeah we all know this isn't gonna happen. 

----

Well, forgive the long post, but if we go by historical standards that's what we're looking at.

Realistically, Takakeisho needs nothing less than 13-2 D to even start the conversation. 14-1 Y to be virtually assured of promotion. 

For Terunofuji, 13-2 Y/D/J is probably enough, 14-1 anything virtually assures it.

Now, tear my methodology apart, forum members!

Edited by Godango
Cat 5 should have been two doten, corrected Y/D/C typo.
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On 23/05/2021 at 02:57, Gurowake said:

Well, if they are allowed to fight honwari matches.   Sometimes there's multiple Yokozuna from the same heya.

Yes, that’s true. It’s been a while since the torikumi makers had to worry about that, mind you. The closest we’ve had in recent years is Yokozuna Kisenosato and Ozeki Takayasu being from the same stable but that never really caused much of a headache, for obvious reasons.

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2 hours ago, Godango said:

Alrighty, here's me with wasting time at work (and if this should move to another thread, someone let me know and/or Mods to your thing).

Since the 6-basho era, there have been 28 Yokozuna promotions.

Post-Futahaguro, there have been 12.

So the one thing this doesn't tell us (through no fault of yours) is that no yokozuna promotion exists with back to back doten, so we don't know how this stacks up against the other categories you've listed.

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11 hours ago, Godango said:

@Eikokurai suggested I bring my post from the 'Natsu basho 2021' thread to here, I'm a bit clueless on how to do it effectively -- but the link is above and I'll copy the post itself below:

Alrighty, here's me with wasting time at work (and if this should move to another thread, someone let me know and/or Mods to your thing).

Since the 6-basho era, there have been 28 Yokozuna promotions.

Post-Futahaguro, there have been 12. 

----

Category 1: Back to Back Yusho

6-basho Era: 11 (39%) of promotions earned this way. No Ozeki who won back to back yusho in this time were denied. Minimum wins were 25 (Taiho, 1961).

Post-Futahaguro: 8 (67%) of promotions earned this way. No Ozeki who won back to back yusho in this time were denied. Minimum wins were 26 (Wakanohana III, 1998 & Musashimaru, 1999).

Conclusion: With 13-2 Y, Terunofuji's promotion is all but assured. 12-3 Y has historical precedent.

Category 2: Yusho + Jun-Yusho

6-basho Era: 7 (25%) of promotions earned this way. Minimum wins were 25 (Wakanohana I, 1957 & Hokutoumi, 1987). Average wins, 26.29.

Post-Futahaguro: 2 (17%) of promotions earned this way. Minimum wins were 25 (Hokutoumi, 1987). Average wins, 25.5.

Conclusion: With 13-2 JY, Terunofuji's promotion would not be unheard of.  14-1 JY would be wholly justifiable and in line with past and recent precedent.

Category 3: Yusho + Doten

6-basho Era: 2 (7%) of promotions earned this way. Minimum wins were 26 (Kitanoumi, 1974). Average wins, 27.

Post-Futahaguro: 1 (8%) of promotions earned this way. 28 wins (Kakuryu, 2014).

Conclusion: 15-D would be required for the win total precedent, but given the above on Y + JY

  • For Terunofuji 13-2 D is likely enough, 14-1 D a virtual guarantee.
  • Likewise for Takakeisho, 13-2 Y may be enough, a 14-1 Y should do the trick.

Category 4: 1 Yusho

6-basho Era: 1 (4%) of promotions happened this way, Tochinoumi 1963. 27 wins.

Post-Futahaguro: Hasn't happened.

Conclusion: 15-0 would be required to get to 27 wins. If Teru doesn't get Y/D/J, I'm sure we all agree he's no chance. I only included this for completeness.

Category 5:  1 Doten & 1 Jun-Yusho

6-basho Era: 1 (4%) of promotions happened this way, Wakanohana II 1978. 27 wins. Back-to-back 12-3D, 12-3Y wasn't enough to earn Wakanohana I promotion in 1956.

Post-Futahaguro: Hasn't happened.

Conclusion: 15-0 D would be required to get to 27 wins. You'd have to imagine they'd promote Takakeisho off the back of that. Takakeisho/Takanosho doten, anyone? I suppose at 13+ wins it would be unprecedented, and stranger things have happened.

Category 6:  1 Doten & 1 Jun-Yusho

6-basho Era: 2 (7%) of promotions happened this way, (Mienoumi 1979,  Futahaguro 1986). Average wins, 26.5.

Post-Futahaguro: Hasn't happened.

Conclusion: 15-0 would be required to get to 27 wins. Takakeisho needs doten at a minimum.

Category 7:  1 Doten 

6-basho Era: 2 (7%) of promotions happened this way, (Kashiwado 1961,  Tamanoumi 1969). Average wins, 23.

Post-Futahaguro: Hasn't happened.

Conclusion: Yeah we all know this isn't gonna happen. 

----

Well, forgive the long post, but if we go by historical standards that's what we're looking at.

Realistically, Takakeisho needs nothing less than 13-2 D to even start the conversation. 14-1 Y to be virtually assured of promotion. 

For Terunofuji, 13-2 Y/D/C is probably enough, 14-1 anything virtually assures it.

Now, tear my methodology apart, forum members!

I might have put Hokutoumi and Okinoumi in "pre-Futahaguro" category (while his promotion was unusual, it's wasn't necessarily undeserved so it was his fall from grace that made tightening of promotion criteria), but other than that nice recap.

Just one thing... you put the same options for both Category 5 and Category 6 (1 Doten & 1 Jun-Yusho). I'm assuming that Category 5 should have been 2 Doten since you list Wakanohana II under it.

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9 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

So the one thing this doesn't tell us (through no fault of yours) is that no yokozuna promotion exists with back to back doten, so we don't know how this stacks up against the other categories you've listed.

I think this is just an oversight. 

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=4095

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4 hours ago, Ripe said:

I might have put Hokutoumi and Okinoumi in "pre-Futahaguro" category (while his promotion was unusual, it's wasn't necessarily undeserved so it was his fall from grace that made tightening of promotion criteria), but other than that nice recap.

Just one thing... you put the same options for both Category 5 and Category 6 (1 Doten & 1 Jun-Yusho). I'm assuming that Category 5 should have been 2 Doten since you list Wakanohana II under it.

Correct you are. 

 

14 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

So the one thing this doesn't tell us (through no fault of yours) is that no yokozuna promotion exists with back to back doten, so we don't know how this stacks up against the other categories you've listed.

See above. 

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