Tsuna runs without renzoku yusho

[Eikokurai 3,437]

Inspired by a discussion elsewhere, how would you rank the following tsuna runs in order of strength?

1. JY > Y

2. Y > JY

3. D > D

4. D > JY

5. JY > D

Feel free to explore nuance if you wish, but I’ve purposely avoided reference to complicating factors like basho records (e.g. 12-3Y v 13-2JY?) or strength of schedule (no Yokozuna beaten, etc) to focus on the core value of each combo. Would you consider a double doten superior to the options 1 and 2 because doten are “yusho equivalent” or does an actual yusho supersede two equivalents?

I haven’t included D > Y, Y > D or Y > Y because those are cast iron promotion cases. 

Edited May 22, 2021 by Eikokurai

[Seiyashi 4,087]

I think any dimuendo will be ranked below a crescendo, simply because an inferior performance will leave the shimpan scratching their heads. For that reason I'd leave D>D as 3rd, but I'd go for this:

1. JY > Y
2. JY > D
3. D > D
4. Y > JY
5. D > JY

So in this system a yusho is clearly superior to a doten, but not by that much.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

10 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I think any dimuendo will be ranked below a crescendo, simply because an inferior performance will leave the shimpan scratching their heads. For that reason I'd leave D>D as 3rd, but I'd go for this:

1. JY > Y
2. JY > D
3. D > D
4. Y > JY
5. D > JY

So in this system a yusho is clearly superior to a doten, but not by that much.

Would you rank a JY > Y above a Y > D since it’s an upward trajectory (a “crescendo” as you put it)?

[Seiyashi 4,087]

2 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Would you rank a JY > Y above a Y > D since it’s an upward trajectory (a “crescendo” as you put it)?

Bleargh, that's a surprisingly tough one. I think I probably overgeneralised with the crescendo/diminuendo, but to me a Y/D are much closer together than a JY (especially because JY can run the gamut of performances depending on how the rest of the banzuke does). I wouldn't rank JY > Y over a Y > D, but then that feels like cheating to say that a D is almost equivalent to Y.

Looking over what I just said, that adds an additional gloss of "not too bad a JY" as well, which starts veering off the course of the deliberately simplified structure of the five options you laid out.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

17 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Bleargh, that's a surprisingly tough one. I think I probably overgeneralised with the crescendo/diminuendo, but to me a Y/D are much closer together than a JY (especially because JY can run the gamut of performances depending on how the rest of the banzuke does). I wouldn't rank JY > Y over a Y > D, but then that feels like cheating to say that a D is almost equivalent to Y.

Looking over what I just said, that adds an additional gloss of "not too bad a JY" as well, which starts veering off the course of the deliberately simplified structure of the five options you laid out.

I think it’s inevitable that people will veer off course in the discussion. That’s fine. I just wanted a simple starting point to focus people’s thoughts on the underlying question. :)

[Ripe 71]

I do not consider a single JY to be a "Yusho equivalent" so any option that include it is not a tsuna run for me... three JY over four preceding tournaments or four JY over 5 (provided there is no MK in between) would qualify but just one is not enough.

Meaning that D > D is the only thing that I'd consider and it's a rather weak one at that...

[Koorifuu 999]

11 minutes ago, Ripe said:

I do not consider a single JY to be a "Yusho equivalent" so any option that include it is not a tsuna run for me... three JY over four preceding tournaments or four JY over 5 (provided there is no MK in between) would qualify but just one is not enough.

Meaning that D > D is the only thing that I'd consider and it's a rather weak one at that...

Personally I agree. Even D > D is going too much into Futahaguro territory.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

48 minutes ago, Ripe said:

I do not consider a single JY to be a "Yusho equivalent" so any option that include it is not a tsuna run for me... three JY over four preceding tournaments or four JY over 5 (provided there is no MK in between) would qualify but just one is not enough.

Meaning that D > D is the only thing that I'd consider and it's a rather weak one at that...

You discount options 1 and 2 as well, even though they include yusho? I’m curious about this as it’s not aligned with YDC thinking, historically speaking. In the modern era, Hokutoumi was promoted after a Y > JY and Wakanohana I after a JY > Y. (I limited the examples to who didn’t have other JYs in the previous two basho.)

We even have an example like Mienoumi who got promoted after a JY > D! (Futahaguro too but I’ll ignore him for obvious reasons.)

And do you regard all JY equally? Would something like a 14-1, which nine times out of ten would win the yusho or get you to a playoff, test your resolve? (Ichinojo only got a JY with 14-1 not long ago when Hakuho finished 15-0.)

Edited May 22, 2021 by Eikokurai

[Godango 984]

My 2 cents, in order of strength:

1. D -> D

2. JY -> Y

3. Y -> JY

4. JY -> D

5. D -> JY

Of those five though I think only D -> D is the a truly promotable record. But then this loses all context of numbers, etc. 

For example, a 15-0 doten and then a 14-1 JY would be pretty darn promotable, I suppose.

[Ripe 71]

1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

You discount options 1 and 2 as well, even though they include yusho? I’m curious about this as it’s not aligned with YDC thinking, historically speaking. In the modern era, Hokutoumi was promoted after a Y > JY and Wakanohana I after a JY > Y. (I limited the examples to who didn’t have other JYs in the previous two basho.)

We even have an example like Mienoumi who got promoted after a JY > D! (Futahaguro too but I’ll ignore him for obvious reasons.)

And do you regard all JY equally? Would something like a 14-1, which nine times out of ten would win the yusho or get you to a playoff, test your resolve? (Ichinojo only got a JY with 14-1 not long ago when Hakuho finished 15-0.)

Most of those cases happened before Futahaguro's fall from grace. So looking at just last 30 years, yes, I do discount those options even with a yusho.

But even looking at those cases you mentioned: Wakanohana I by time he was promoted spent 10 yushos as Ozeki. He went 10-5 once, 11-4 three times, 12-3 four times and 13-2 twice with two Yushos, one D and two JY's... that is Yokozuna level performance, especially considering there were already four Yokozunas active at the time! Mienoumi went 68-22 over six basho (with last being 14-1 D) showing consistency. Hokutoumi... well, you might have a point there but him and Onokuni got lucky to be promoted at that point because just a few months later Futahaguro happened and they might never held the rank.

As for all JY being the same... yes, 14-1 JY might be fine but only if that 1 loss came from eventual winner (especially if that match happened on final day). Which wasn't the case with Ichinojo... he lost to Tochinoshin on day 8 and never even faced Hakuho (or even Kakuryu who was also available). So even all 14-1 JY's are not equal.

Edited May 22, 2021 by Ripe

[Mightyduck 67]

Slightly off topic, but can anyone tell me if jun-yusho has any financial reward either as a one off payment or prize, or as a component of the cumulative pay awards? 

Or is it just kudos?

[Eikokurai 3,437]

20 minutes ago, Ripe said:

As for all JY being the same... yes, 14-1 JY might be fine but only if that 1 loss came from eventual winner (especially if that match happened on final day). Which wasn't the case with Ichinojo... he lost to Tochinoshin on day 8 and never even faced Hakuho (or even Kakuryu who was also available). So even all 14-1 JY's are not equal.

Ichinojo didn't face Hakuho because he was too far down the banzuke, but they'd never have let Ichinojo avoid facing Hakuho if it was he who was leading and the Yokozuna in pursuit. An Ozeki would almost certainly have faced Hakuho, whether as the pursuer or the pursued, so it's safe to assume a 14-1 record by an Ozeki on a tsuna run would include a bout against the eventual winner.

Edited May 22, 2021 by Eikokurai

[Ripe 71]

2 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

Ichinojo didn't face Hakuho because he was too far down the banzuke, but they'd never have let Ichinojo avoid facing Hakuho if it was he who was leading and the Yokozuna in pursuit. An Ozeki would almost certainly have faced Hakuho, whether as the pursuer or the pursued, so it's safe to assume a 14-1 record by an Ozeki on a tsuna run would include a bout against the eventual winner.

True... still, it would make a difference if they both enter final day at 14-0 or if they meet at some earlier day. But that is pretty much the only way JY could count... and I'd still require the following Y to be 15-0 in order to promote someone to Yokozuna.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

1 minute ago, Ripe said:

True... still, it would make a difference if they both enter final day at 14-0 or if they meet at some earlier day. But that is pretty much the only way JY could count... and I'd still require the following Y to be 15-0 in order to promote someone to Yokozuna.

Hardly anyone would ever be promoted under your terms and conditions! 

[Eikokurai 3,437]

2 hours ago, Mightyduck said:

Slightly off topic, but can anyone tell me if jun-yusho has any financial reward either as a one off payment or prize, or as a component of the cumulative pay awards? 

Or is it just kudos?

None that I’m aware of but if a hiramaku manages it they usually get an indirect reward for it by getting a sansho.

[Ripe 71]

1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

Hardly anyone would ever be promoted under your terms and conditions! 

I just feel that Yokozuna should be someone who can prove he is capable of competing for yusho on regular basis, not someone who lucked out and win once in a while. So back-to-back Yusho (Yusho and one Doten is also OK) or at the least 70-20 score over 6 bashos with at least 1 Yusho and 3 JY of any kind is what it takes... if a rikishi can't achieve that, then he don't deserve the rank.

[Gurowake 4,052]

4 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

safe to assume a 14-1 record by an Ozeki on a tsuna run would include a bout against the eventual winner.

Well, if they are allowed to fight honwari matches.   Sometimes there's multiple Yokozuna from the same heya.

[WAKATAKE 2,656]

Post Futahaguro I believe the non consecutive tsuna runs are Kakuryu and Kisenosato

[Yamanashi 3,840]

27 minutes ago, WAKATAKE said:

Post Futahaguro I believe the non consecutive tsuna runs are Kakuryu and Kisenosato

So, the last two?

[WAKATAKE 2,656]

1 hour ago, Yamanashi said:

So, the last two?

Basically yes

[Sue 508]

Does it matter whether a jun-yusho was a solo jun-yusho, or shared? Does it matter enough to be a factor in a run?

[Eikokurai 3,437]

8 hours ago, Sue said:

Does it matter whether a jun-yusho was a solo jun-yusho, or shared? Does it matter enough to be a factor in a run?

It’s a good question. There are times when 3 or 4 rikishi share the JY, which takes the sting out of it a little, especially if the Ozeki shares it with a hiramaku (even accounting for schedule difficulty). There are also JYs that fall well behind the yusho score, e.g. a 14-1Y but with 11-4JYs. For this thought exercise I had in mind ‘promotable’ records only, so that would be JYs with scores close to the yusho total (i.e. one win behind) and where the Ozeki alone got the JY.

Edited May 23, 2021 by Eikokurai

[白魔ガシ 8]

IMO a Tsuna-Run strength (why is it called tsuna actually? I'm relatively new in fan areas) relies heavily on factors like wins, overall performance and strength of opponents. There's a reason there's no rule for a promotion and I think that's a good case. I will of course still rank this but with the premise that all of them are the same score (e.g. 13-2 with very strong Sumo, or 14-1 with weak Sumo by Yokozuna standards - as far as that's possible)

JY->Y

Y->JY

D->D (if losing both Yusho to Hakuho)

D->D = JY->D

D->JY

Losing in a Doten twice often looks like weak mentality. Getting promoted on a JY without a Y beforehand just looks awful to me lol.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

4 minutes ago, 白魔ガシ said:

why is it called tsuna actually?

Tsuna is Japanese for ‘rope’, the rope Yokozuna wear in their ring-entering ceremony. It’s the same character as the ‘zuna’ in Yokozuna but in Japanese the pronunciation of certain sounds changes when they appear as the second kanji in a compound.

[白魔ガシ 8]

Thanks. I love learning Japanese through Sumo. I know such obscure Kanji because they appear in Shikona but can't even write Katakana correctly.