Seiyashi

Asanoyama caught violating COVID restrictions

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7 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Pardon me (again!) for a stupid question, but how is he going to be docked half his pay?  Do they mean that when he falls to Makushita he'll receive half of nothing?

Half of nothing is better than all of nothing. The Kyokai may have overlooked this technicality and end up needing to give Asanoyama something.

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9 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Pardon me (again!) for a stupid question, but how is he going to be docked half his pay?  Do they mean that when he falls to Makushita he'll receive half of nothing?

That’s why it’s a six month dock. He’ll still be in Juryo.

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Forgive my ignorance.

Will Asanoyama actually appear on the Banzuke for each Basho but then never be scheduled for a bout.?

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Millwood said:

Forgive my ignorance.

Will Asanoyama actually appear on the Banzuke for each Basho but then never be scheduled for a bout.?

No, he will be ranked but treated as kyujo, and each basho he will drop further down, till he returns somewhere in Sandanme in a year, unless he decides to retire before that.

Edited by Kintamayama

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Millwood said:

Forgive my ignorance.

Will Asanoyama actually appear on the Banzuke for each Basho but then never be scheduled for a bout.?

That's how it worked for Abi.  There's no reason to believe it will be any different.  He'll take up a Sekiwake slot, then a Makuuchi slot, then a Juryo slot, etc, even though he won't be able to enter the tournament.   It's going to be really annoying for the sanyaku ranks next tournament; I hope they just create a 3rd Sekiwake even if it's not needed.

Edited by Gurowake

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4 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

That's how it worked for Abi.  There's no reason to believe it will be any different.  He'll take up a Sekiwake slot, then a Makuuchi slot, then a Juryo slot, etc, even though he won't be able to enter the tournament.   It's going to be really annoying for the sanyaku ranks next tournament; I hope they just create a 3rd Sekiwake even if it's not needed.

that's what's confusing me.  what does it mean to "take up a Sekiwake ... slot" (actually Ozeki first - he's Kadoban).  What will the Banzuke look like?  In May Hakuho was on the Banzuke but I don't remember when he went kyujo.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Millwood said:

that's what's confusing me.  what does it mean to "take up a Sekiwake ... slot" (actually Ozeki first - he's Kadoban).  What will the Banzuke look like?  In May Hakuho was on the Banzuke but I don't remember when he went kyujo.

The Banzuke is a listing of all the ranked rikishi, regardless of whether they will participate.  The Nagoya banzuke was created the next Wednesday after Natsu, so I wasn't considering that.  Asanoyama will be a Sekiwake (or retired) for Aki, and if there aren't two other rikishi who qualify for automatic Sekiwake slots, whether by being KK as Sekiwake or getting 11 wins as a Komusubi, they would in general only have one other rikishi as Sekiwake.  There's never been a situation before for a Ozeki being demoted because of suspension, and in this case the suspension even means that he'll miss the basho in which he'll have dropped down to Sekiwake, so it might make sense for them to promote a 3rd Sekiwake regardless of how well they deserve it, just to have a normal number of junior sanyaku in the basho.  But they probably won't, since it would cost them money and they don't like ever creating more sanyaku slots than absolutely forced to, and junior sanyaku sometimes miss the whole tournament regardless, so there's no real reason why they need all 4.  It just would be a nice gesture to see given that they know when the banzuke is being made that one of the Sekiwake will be forbidden from competing.

Edited by Gurowake

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50 minutes ago, Rocks said:

So yes, he'll get half of nothing 

Shades of the Greek job market here.

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Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, Gurowake said:
1 hour ago, Millwood said:

that's what's confusing me.  what does it mean to "take up a Sekiwake ... slot" (actually Ozeki first - he's Kadoban).  What will the Banzuke look like?  In May Hakuho was on the Banzuke but I don't remember when he went kyujo.

The Banzuke is a listing of all the ranked rikishi, regardless of whether they will participate.  The Nagoya banzuke was created the next Wednesday after Natsu, so I wasn't considering that.  Asanoyama will be a Sekiwake (or retired) for Aki, and if there aren't two other rikishi who qualify for automatic Sekiwake slots, whether by being KK as Sekiwake or getting 11 wins as a Komusubi, they would in general only have one other rikishi as Sekiwake.  There's never been a situation before for a Ozeki being demoted because of suspension, and in this case the suspension even means that he'll miss the basho in which he'll have dropped down to Sekiwake, so it might make sense for them to promote a 3rd Sekiwake regardless of how well they deserve it, just to have a normal number of junior sanyaku in the basho.  But they probably won't, since it would cost them money and they don't like ever creating more sanyaku slots than absolutely forced to, and junior sanyaku sometimes miss the whole tournament regardless, so there's no real reason why they need all 4.  It just would be a nice gesture to see given that they know when the banzuke is being made that one of the Sekiwake will be forbidden from competing.

To add to this, precedent shows that a falling ozeki can and will choke up a sekiwake slot over a "more deserving" komusubi or joi maegashira who would otherwise have been a shoo-in for the slot. We had a whole carousel of this in mid-late 2019 when Tochinoshin, Takayasu, and Takakeisho took turns getting demoted from ozeki, and for three consecutive basho, blocked the spot from a KK komusubi who would have otherwise have been promoted had the kadoban ozeki not been demoted. For instance, for Aki 2019's banzuke, Tamawashi's sekiwake slot (he went 5-10 in Nagoya) was taken by the falling Takakeisho, who had been injured in his very first ozeki basho one basho before and was still out of action while kadoban. Otherwise, had there been no demoted ozeki, Abi at 8-7 K1e would normally have been promoted. The very next banzuke for Kyushu 2019 had Takakeisho at S1w swap places with a demoted Tochinoshin, again denying Abi at K1e 9-6 a promotion. In both cases, the freed sekiwake slot (one via demotion, one via promotion) was taken up by a demoted ozeki.

(Abi was again hard done by the next basho, for despite repeating a 9-6 at Kyushu from K1e and there being two open slots as both sekiwake went MK, one sekiwake slot was taken by the falling Takayasu and Abi was shown up for the other by an 11-4 Asanoyama at K2w. Three consecutive KKs from komusubi is really impressive as komusubi typically has the worst week 1 fight card. If his career had ended last year, he really ought to have earned the right to be known as ex-sekiwake rather than ex-komusubi, but luckily for him he has another chance.)

The only exception to this is when the two sekiwake slots are spoken for (either by KK sekiwake or falling ozeki) and a komusubi goes 11-4 or better, as Gurowake mentioned. It must be 11 wins or better; Tochiozan forced a 3rd sekiwake slot (so S2e, generally, unless there's also an odd number of ozeki) in Hatsu 2014 with 11-4, but Tochinoshin's 10-5 at komusubi didn't see him promoted in Aki 2015, since both sekiwake were 8-7. So it is still possible that there may be three sekiwake slots come Aki, if one of the two komusubi (likely Wakatakakage and Meisei for Nagoya) go 11-4 or better, but considering they're shin-komusubi and have to deal with Hakuho, Terunofuji, Takakeisho, and Takayasu in the first week, it's more likely than not that all four of those losses are spoken for already and it would be very impressive if either of them remained perfect for the rest of the basho.

It's also theoretically possible for a maegashira in the joi to force a sekiwake slot with an outstanding performance, but that hasn't happened since Takatoriki in 1997 (on his second occasion a komusubi with a double digit KK came along for the ride for four sekiwake). And after Daieisho was snubbed for a third sekiwake spot despite a 13-2 Y from M1w, prior sanyaku history, and both sekiwake incumbents KK, it's not unreasonable to assume from here on that forcing sekiwake promotions from maegashira is not a normal option.

Edited by Seiyashi
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1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

No, he will be ranked but treated as kyujo, and each basho he will drop further down, till he returns somewhere in Sandanme in a year, unless he decides to retire before that.

This is the bit I'm curious about: technically he's submitted his papers but Hakkaku is holding on to them, so his immediate desire to retire won't be honoured by the NSK. I presume they will continue blocking his retirement for at least the duration of his suspension, but will they really allow him to quit the moment that's up, or does he have to do a few token basho (or just drop off the banzuke altogether) before officially calling it quits?

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, ryafuji said:

Yup, and that's why I thought he was toast. He can count himself rather fortunate to still have a chance at a comeback. At his age he should be able to clean up in the lower divisions and at least make it back to makuuchi. 

Yes, I did think he would quit rather than endure such a tough punishment, though he did attempt to submit retirement papers back in May, apparently Hakkaku has kept them in the event of another faux pas.

When you add up the time it will take for him to return just to makunouchi, counting the six basho ban, that will be at least 18 months away, by which time he may be passing his prime.7

Sad all around.

 

Swami

Edited by Swami
Typo error

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57 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

This is the bit I'm curious about: technically he's submitted his papers but Hakkaku is holding on to them, so his immediate desire to retire won't be honoured by the NSK. I presume they will continue blocking his retirement for at least the duration of his suspension, but will they really allow him to quit the moment that's up, or does he have to do a few token basho (or just drop off the banzuke altogether) before officially calling it quits?

My understanding was that they were holding onto the retirement papers in the event of another faux pas, in which case Asanoyama's hand would be forced.

 

Swami

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2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

It's going to be really annoying for the sanyaku ranks next tournament; I hope they just create a 3rd Sekiwake even if it's not needed.

I'm willing to bet they won't.

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Assuming Asanoyama decides to stick it out and fight back, the trajectory should look something like this:

7.21 O -> 9.21 S -> 11.21 M10 -> 1.22 J5 -> 3.22 Ms5 -> 5.22 Ms45 -> 7.22 Sd25

On the way back up, assuming 7-0 in the lower divisions, and 12 wins as sekitori, I get:

9.22 Ms16 -> 11.22 Ms1 -> 1.23 J12 -> 3.23 J3 -> 5.23 M12 -> 7.23 M1

So he could return to the paid ranks in early 2023, and the joi about two years from now. He won't get his rank back until 2024, and that's assuming Terunofuji-like dominance.

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, Reonito said:
2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

It's going to be really annoying for the sanyaku ranks next tournament; I hope they just create a 3rd Sekiwake even if it's not needed.

I'm willing to bet they won't.

If Abi (not the best example perhaps now with the benefit of hindsight, but meh) can be denied sekiwake for 3 consecutive basho with KKs as komusubi because of falling ozeki, they're not going to create an extra sekiwake slot just for one basho. At most that factors into a slightly luckier promotion for the rikishi involved the next time round.

Besides, there's no one urgently knocking on the door for the sekiwake slot. At most, if the M1s perform really well in Nagoya and the komusubi do 8-7 or 9-6 KKs, we might see another 4-komusubi banzuke in Aki with maybe Endo, Hokutofuji or Ichinojo leading the charge. In a vacuum, I think that is likelier than a 3-sekiwake banzuke in Aki, considering it's two shin-komusubi having to deal with basically the strongest possible sanyaku on the banzuke right now (Hakuho, Terunofuji, Takakeisho, Shodai, Takayasu, and Mitakeumi) - they can thank their lucky stars Asanoyama is suspended otherwise it'd be a pretty good chance one of them gets to nakabi 0-7!

Edited by Seiyashi

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5 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

In a vacuum, I think that is likelier than a 3-sekiwake banzuke in Aki

Of course, the likeliest 3-sekiwake scenario is that both Takayasu and Mitakeumi go kachi-koshi but without the 13- or 15-win yusho, respectively, they'd probably need to get promoted.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Of course, the likeliest 3-sekiwake scenario is that both Takayasu and Mitakeumi go kachi-koshi but without the 13- or 15-win yusho, respectively, they'd probably need to get promoted.

That's true. I wonder why that didn't register on my mind as a possibility; maybe I assumed Mitakeumi was just going to choke and MK.

Actually, then, does that make it paradoxically more likely that there will be a 4(?!) sekiwake banzuke? If both sekiwake KK and Asanoyama is already making it three sekiwake (quite likely IMO, at least more than 4 komusubi), would a strong 10-5 from one of the komusubi make the shimpan go "heck, for the sake of symmetry might as well punt one of them up"? Not that it's been a concern in recent basho, but a logjam in the joi would make this more likely as well methinks.

Edited by Seiyashi

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16 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

would a strong 10-5 from one of the komusubi make the shimpan go "heck, for the sake of symmetry might as well punt one of them up"?

I don't see it; the record is pretty clear it takes 11-4

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Bit surprised that Asanoyama is still in sumo. The punishment seems a bit light, given the reported efforts he went to covering his tracks and all. 

And confession time...I've been reading Asahisho's name wrong for years. In my brain he was Asashio, which was why he threw the giant handfuls of salt. I thought he was being punny. But then when the articles were mentioning former-Asashio, and his relation to Asashoryu, and I was confused enough to finally hunt through the DB. It been a tough day, learning that Asahisho wasn't as casually cool as I thought he was. 

Anyway, props to Asanoyama for helping me sort that one out. 

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1 minute ago, Reonito said:

I don't see it; the record is pretty clear it takes 11-4

Yeah, that would be the usual. I guess I'll decide my GTB when time comes with a coin toss for the "how much sake have the shimpan had to make another weird decision on the level of 13-2 M1w go K only" setting, unless someone else has a more sophisticated algorithm for that :-P

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1 minute ago, Benevolance said:

Bit surprised that Asanoyama is still in sumo. The punishment seems a bit light, given the reported efforts he went to covering his tracks and all. 

And confession time...I've been reading Asahisho's name wrong for years. In my brain he was Asashio, which was why he threw the giant handfuls of salt. I thought he was being punny. But then when the articles were mentioning former-Asashio, and his relation to Asashoryu, and I was confused enough to finally hunt through the DB. It been a tough day, learning that Asahisho wasn't as casually cool as I thought he was. 

Anyway, props to Asanoyama for helping me sort that one out. 

It's an easy mistake to make in romaji, because while asahi and asa share the first two syllables, they are different (albeit conceptually related) words in kanji altogether.

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2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

This is the bit I'm curious about: technically he's submitted his papers but Hakkaku is holding on to them, so his immediate desire to retire won't be honoured by the NSK. I presume they will continue blocking his retirement for at least the duration of his suspension, but will they really allow him to quit the moment that's up, or does he have to do a few token basho (or just drop off the banzuke altogether) before officially calling it quits?

I knew he'd submitted papers but you're one of several folks mentioning retirement, as opposed to the potential for accepted resignation if he's not a super good boy like Abi has apparently been. It sounded like he had contritely apologized to everyone and told his father that he wanted to stay the course no matter the penalty if he were allowed to stay n sumo. Apparently, there's more news or some folks don't think those words were actually sincere?

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Kaminariyuki said:
3 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

This is the bit I'm curious about: technically he's submitted his papers but Hakkaku is holding on to them, so his immediate desire to retire won't be honoured by the NSK. I presume they will continue blocking his retirement for at least the duration of his suspension, but will they really allow him to quit the moment that's up, or does he have to do a few token basho (or just drop off the banzuke altogether) before officially calling it quits?

I knew he'd submitted papers but you're one of several folks mentioning retirement, as opposed to the potential for accepted resignation if he's not a super good boy like Abi has apparently been. It sounded like he had contritely apologized to everyone and told his father that he wanted to stay the course no matter the penalty if he were allowed to stay n sumo. Apparently, there's more news or some folks don't think those words were actually sincere?

So the timeline was he'd apparently handed in the papers as early as May 21 (two days after the scandal broke and Day 13 of the Natsu basho), but since then everyone has made reasonable noises of continued encouragement. The true answer is probably somewhere between the extremes, but what's probably happened is that while the board ruminated on the punishment and his submission of documents, he got the messages of support from his family and hometown, which made him decide to stay the course whatever the board might have decided. Of course, now that the board has decided that he is in for a full year's suspension, that may or may not be something he is either prepared to bear, or can in fact bear out in completeness. I think some of the more experienced folks here, Kintamayama primarily, are doubting whether he has the fortitude to both serve out the suspension and climb back up to sekitori.

Seeing as the punishment effectively spans from now till when he makes sekitori again (as that's the whole point of forcibly dumping a sekitori-class rikishi to the unpaid ranks), my question was more whether he can just unilaterally call it quits during his punishment period, given that his papers are with the NSK and he is essentially serving out a punishment. Most other rikishi would be able to quit at will, whereas Asanoyama's life in sumo is effectively now out of his control and under the interdict of the NSK. So does that cut both ways and mean that the NSK has the power both to immediately accept his retirement and to put it off at will? It would seem an awfully easy way out for Asanoyama to retire halfway through his suspensions, but the NSK can't really compel him to step on a dohyo again after his suspension if he decides he is really done with sumo in the meantime. However, if they are holding his papers, then.... ???

Edited by Seiyashi

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Posted (edited)

Not that I have a clue what will happen (if the past year has taught us anything it is that we don't know what will happen next week), but I have to disagree with those who don't think he'll make it back. It is an interesting question you pose but I think he will make it through the suspension and then move back up to at least juryo with yushos and jun-yushos. I could easily be mistaken but I think he's got just as much moxy as Abi, maybe more.

I predict he battles all the way back up to ozeki again, stays in sumo, but never gets the rope.

Edited by Kaminariyuki

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I’m pretty sure that the resignation papers issued are part of the game, and are pretty much expected to be refused, just like Tate Gyoji Inosuke’s constant resignations after another sashichigae is always refused. I’m pretty sure Asanoyama can leave anytime he wants if he really wants to and is not just going through the motions. BTW, did Ryuuden hand in resignation papers?

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