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themistyseas

Next Most Likely Branch-out

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Hello friends - We've seen a lot of consolidation over recent months, with stables shuttering or changing hands for one reason or another. What I'd like to know is: who do we think the next most likely branch-out is?

I break the likely protagonists into two categories: at a stable with a great many oyakata, or an at least somewhat popular/likely resourced young-ish retiree either not obviously likely to take over another heya in the near-ish future, or who has already expressed interest in opening his own heya.

This led me to the following seven/eight most likely names:

  • Kiyomigata (Tochiozan)
  • Takekuma (Goeido)
  • Onogawa (Kitataiki)
  • Oshiogawa (Takekaze) / Nakamura (Yoshikaze) ** depending on which one doesn't take over their stable and assuming Nakamura has no extracurricular impediments
  • Hidenoyama (Kotoshogiku)
  • Araiso (Kisenosato)
  • Kakuryu (needs to assume a new name first, obviously)

The others I considered either not likely to branch out due to not meeting the requirements, looking like a clear eventual replacement for the existing oyakata, or simply just being on the older side (not that this is necessarily an impediment and of course examples exist but I didn't consider it likely in the case of the next branch out).

Am I missing names? Who do others think might be the most likely to launch a startup stable next? Given what looks like the normal time recently before a branch out (1-3 years, maybe more), one would think Onogawa or Araiso might be the most likely candidates, although I could see Kakuryu getting something together in a hurry given his current environment, depending how the Izutsu situation eventually resolves itself.

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3 hours ago, themistyseas said:
  • Kiyomigata (Tochiozan)
  • Takekuma (Goeido)
  • Onogawa (Kitataiki)
  • Oshiogawa (Takekaze) / Nakamura (Yoshikaze) ** depending on which one doesn't take over their stable and assuming Nakamura has no extracurricular impediments 
  • Hidenoyama (Kotoshogiku)
  • Araiso (Kisenosato)
  • Kakuryu (needs to assume a new name first, obviously)

Oshiogawa was named as the successor of the heya in several articles, Nakamura is collecting uchideshi to branch out, there is not much heard about scouting activities by Takekaze.

Hidenoyama has spoken about plans for his own heya and Araiso is planning his heya in minute details of course. Nobody else will likely branch out in the near future, with Takekuma and Kakuryu as ex Y/O the only with a greater likelihood to do that at all. I guess they might be successors to existing heya some day.

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5 hours ago, themistyseas said:

Hello friends - We've seen a lot of consolidation over recent months, with stables shuttering or changing hands for one reason or another. What I'd like to know is: who do we think the next most likely branch-out is?

I break the likely protagonists into two categories: at a stable with a great many oyakata, or an at least somewhat popular/likely resourced young-ish retiree either not obviously likely to take over another heya in the near-ish future, or who has already expressed interest in opening his own heya.

This led me to the following seven/eight most likely names:

  • Kiyomigata (Tochiozan)
  • Takekuma (Goeido)
  • Onogawa (Kitataiki)
  • Oshiogawa (Takekaze) / Nakamura (Yoshikaze) ** depending on which one doesn't take over their stable and assuming Nakamura has no extracurricular impediments
  • Hidenoyama (Kotoshogiku)
  • Araiso (Kisenosato)
  • Kakuryu (needs to assume a new name first, obviously)

The others I considered either not likely to branch out due to not meeting the requirements, looking like a clear eventual replacement for the existing oyakata, or simply just being on the older side (not that this is necessarily an impediment and of course examples exist but I didn't consider it likely in the case of the next branch out).

Am I missing names? Who do others think might be the most likely to launch a startup stable next? Given what looks like the normal time recently before a branch out (1-3 years, maybe more), one would think Onogawa or Araiso might be the most likely candidates, although I could see Kakuryu getting something together in a hurry given his current environment, depending how the Izutsu situation eventually resolves itself.

Interesting topic.

I'd say Akinomaki's analysis is pretty good and reflects my thoughts on potential branch-outs, aside from what he has summarized concerning recent media reports (Araiso, Oshiogawa, Nakamura, Hidenoyama). Overall, opening a new stable often depends on whether a rikishi sees a chance to take over his home stable (or another one), or wants to face the challenge to build from scratch.

Kasugano e.g., he will turn 60 next year and ex-Tochiozan is still pretty young. A takeover at the age of ~40y. would still give him two and a half decades to lead one of the most prestigous heya out there (unless guys like Tochinonada or Tochinohana have already received the promise for a takeover). Same could be said about Takekuma (Sakaigawa shares the same age as Kasugano) - but as an ex-Ozeki, he might go independent (as seems to be the norm with many rikishi, who have reached the top two ranks).

Onogawa has to be erased from the list, since he simply doesn't qualify for a branch-out (minimum sixty Makuuchi basho).

Regarding Kakuryu: Michinoku will turn 65 in 2024. IMHO, he can take the opportunity to learn from ex-Kirishima the next years and then take over smoothly, when the shisho will reach the mandatory retirement age (maybe renaming the heya Izutsu-beya, since it is a branch-off from Kakuryu's ex-stable).

On a general note: I have voiced the opinion several times, that I hope for less branch-outs, since we already have enough stables out there (some of them being super small and barely providing a fruitful training environment - Kagamiyama or Kataonami come to mind). Aside from the already named rikishi, I can't see who might branch-out in the near future ... so I will just wait and see. :-)

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6 hours ago, Raishu said:

Interesting topic.

I'd say Akinomaki's analysis is pretty good and reflects my thoughts on potential branch-outs, aside from what he has summarized concerning recent media reports (Araiso, Oshiogawa, Nakamura, Hidenoyama). Overall, opening a new stable often depends on whether a rikishi sees a chance to take over his home stable (or another one), or wants to face the challenge to build from scratch.

Kasugano e.g., he will turn 60 next year and ex-Tochiozan is still pretty young. A takeover at the age of ~40y. would still give him two and a half decades to lead one of the most prestigous heya out there (unless guys like Tochinonada or Tochinohana have already received the promise for a takeover). Same could be said about Takekuma (Sakaigawa shares the same age as Kasugano) - but as an ex-Ozeki, he might go independent (as seems to be the norm with many rikishi, who have reached the top two ranks).

Onogawa has to be erased from the list, since he simply doesn't qualify for a branch-out (minimum sixty Makuuchi basho).

Regarding Kakuryu: Michinoku will turn 65 in 2024. IMHO, he can take the opportunity to learn from ex-Kirishima the next years and then take over smoothly, when the shisho will reach the mandatory retirement age (maybe renaming the heya Izutsu-beya, since it is a branch-off from Kakuryu's ex-stable).

On a general note: I have voiced the opinion several times, that I hope for less branch-outs, since we already have enough stables out there (some of them being super small and barely providing a fruitful training environment - Kagamiyama or Kataonami come to mind). Aside from the already named rikishi, I can't see who might branch-out in the near future ... so I will just wait and see. :-)

Indeed if the number of stables were to stabilize, recruitment could increase as prospects would be familiar with a stable set of known stables whose stable existence is guaranteed for their careers.

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12 hours ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

Indeed if the number of stables were to stabilize, recruitment could increase as prospects would be familiar with a stable set of known stables whose stable existence is guaranteed for their careers.

I know how you feel, I'm stir crazy for the next basho, too!

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1 hour ago, ViscountessNivlac said:

Well...

Lol, as if someone has followed our discussion here. :-D

So Yoshikaze has become the number contender for the Oguruma-name or what?

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1 hour ago, ViscountessNivlac said:

Well...

Could someone give a little explanation about what is written there? My japanese is not better than my quenya or klingon

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59 minutes ago, Seregost said:

Could someone give a little explanation about what is written there? My japanese is not better than my quenya or klingon

Building construction site for new oshiogawa beya, 6 stories to be completed in March next year.

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4 hours ago, Raishu said:

So Yoshikaze has become the number contender for the Oguruma-name or what?

It appears so, yes.

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Posted (edited)

Well, construction is conveniently set to be finished just before Oguruma turns 65, so it could also be that Oguruma-beya will continue as Oshiogawa-beya at a new location. Oguruma might stay as sanyo until 70 anyway, given that he's been high up the executive ladder for a long time and is pretty much the archetype of an oyakata for whom those positions were originally created.

Edited by Asashosakari

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Six stories. With a canyon-style dive pool and lazy river? 

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https://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/202104220001270.html
 

Quote

新しい部屋には、尾車部屋所属の力士が転籍する見通し。名跡の交換は今後の話し合いになるため、「尾車部屋」「押尾川部屋」のどちらになるのかは未定という。

It looks like ex-Takekaze is actually taking on all the rikishi at Oguruma beya. However, it's not determined whether it will continue to be called "Oguruma-beya" or become "Oshiogawa-beya" at the new location, as the kabu exchange is not yet settled. This probably also means that ex-Kotokaze is looking to stay around until he's 70.

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Posted (edited)

ex-Takekaze taking over Oguruma beya should happen around next April, when the current shisho reaches 65. "These days you can't use harsh words anymore when coaching your guys. My keiko-ba will be strict, but I will also encourage teamwork. More than me telling them what to do, I'd like my deshi to be independent as well and I will be encouraging that. Now, I have to learn how to go about teaching the others," he said. The intended new heya will be six stories high. Stories 1-3 the heya, and 4-6  will be special lodgings for students and one-room mansions. "There are colleges in the vicinity and I think it would be a great idea for the rikishi to mingle with other people their age," he added. There will not be a gym at the heya, as there is a gym right around the corner. "The gym is fully equipped with the latest equipment. It's a bike ride away. We've really gone into details here..That said, we will have barbells and minimal equipment at the heya," summed Oshiogawa Oyakata.

Edited by Kintamayama
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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

ex-Takekaze taking over Oguruma beya should happen around next April, when the current shisho reaches 65. "

It had been rumored in the tabloids that Nakamura will branch out at that point, taking with him his uchi-deshi, but he'll hardly will have enough money for that, unless he gets to use the old Oguruma-beya premises. We'll see what happens next year.

Edited by Akinomaki

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14 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

It had been rumored in the tabloids that Nakamura will branch out at that point, taking with him his uchi-deshi, but he'll hardly will have enough money for that, unless he gets to use the old Oguruma-beya premises. We'll see what happens next year.

Possibly why Oshiogawa is constructing new premises in the first place to do him a solid. 

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Posted (edited)

A lot of stable geniuses here...

I like Takekaze's idea of having non sumo-related students in the house. I'd go even further and have some elder people live. Some years ago i read about the concept of a company-grandma/grandpa. A pensioneer who shows up for a couple of hours a day, providing healthy snacks and drinks, lending an ear during coffee breaks, giving life advice and so on for the employees to feel more comfortable. Like Betty White in Boston Legal, without the drama and occasional murder. An Okami-Grandmum so to say.

Edited by Benihana
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4 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

ex-Takekaze taking over Oguruma beya should happen around next April, when the current shisho reaches 65. "These days you can't use harsh words anymore when coaching your guys. My keiko-ba will be strict, but I will also encourage teamwork. More than me telling them what to do, I'd like my deshi to be independent as well and I will be encouraging that. Now, I have to learn how to go about teaching the others," he said. The intended new heya will be six stories high. Stories 1-3 the heya, and 4-6  will be special lodgings for students and one-room mansions.

at the location - Tokyo Skytree in the back

202104220001270-w200_1.jpgo 20210422-OHT1I51181-N.jpgo origin_1.jpgo

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On 23/04/2021 at 17:29, Akinomaki said:

at the location - Tokyo Skytree in the back

202104220001270-w200_1.jpgo 20210422-OHT1I51181-N.jpgo origin_1.jpgo

here we are, our hopes and dreams!

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On 23/04/2021 at 18:29, Akinomaki said:

at the location - Tokyo Skytree in the back

202104220001270-w200_1.jpgo 20210422-OHT1I51181-N.jpgo origin_1.jpgo

How close to Miyagino heya & Tomozuna heya?

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13 minutes ago, code_number3 said:

here we are, our hopes and dreams!

If the address is in the article, I can't read it, but it appears to be East of the Sky Tree.  I think Miyagino is out that way, and Naruto and Tomozuna are close to the Sky Tree.  Anything else out that way?

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Yamanashi said:
2 hours ago, code_number3 said:

here we are, our hopes and dreams!

If the address is in the article, I can't read it, but it appears to be East of the Sky Tree.  I think Miyagino is out that way, and Naruto and Tomozuna are close to the Sky Tree.  Anything else out that way?

Not via a quick search on Google Maps; most of the heya are between Skytree and Ryogoku. 

If I read the address correctly in the tweet as Sumida-ku Bunka 3 Chome 16-7, then it's actually just down the street from Miyagino: it's the unlabelled, rightmost circled teal mark in the image below. That said, I can't seem to find the correct angle to replicate the view of the Skytree as seen in the photos of Oshiogawa with the lot though, especially as a large existing building with a Domino's seems to block up the only possible angle in that city block, so I may have gotten the exact site wrong.

Tomozuna is below the Skytree, both circled, on the left side of the image; Naruto is to the northwest of the Skytree just outside of the frame of the image. The other heya would all be southwest of Skytree and Tomozuna.

sumo stables.jpg

Edited by Seiyashi
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6 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Tomozuna is below the Skytree, both circled, on the left side of the image; Naruto is to the northwest of the Skytree just outside of the frame of the image. The other heya would all be southwest of Skytree and Tomozuna.

I'm pretty sure I've seen a picture from Tomozuna with Sky Tree in it -- easily visible.  Narutobeya is very close, down the street next to the overpass.  The oyakata or the heya photographer occasionally post pics on a clear day:

https://ameblo.jp/kotooshu-naruto/entry-12669470797.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naruto_stable_(2017)#/media/File:鳴戸部屋.jpg

I can't find any pictures right now, but they have cookouts on the roof and view the Sky Tree on occasion.

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