Natsu basho 2021

[Seiyashi 2,261]

9 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

He must have been reading the forum on a certain date.

I think he does; during Takayasu's bout, he cited the statistic of 96% of rikishi converting a 2 win lead by day 10 into a yusho 

[Thorbjarn 180]

Don't think they will promote Terunofuji with a singular Yusho, even if it's Zensho. Can't really give a proper reasoning, purely gut feeling. 

Takayasu vs Chiyonokuni was wild, at first I had no idea how it took Takayasu so long, then I realized he was nearly as much off balance as Chiyonokuni for nearly as long.

Shodai's tachiai has been like it was before he got into the form that captured Ozeki rank, he is way up high, with a soft and almost gentle movement towards the opponent. Definitely worried for him. Mitakeumi did well against Takakeisho. Asanoyama gave away another match early, he looked about as disappointed as I felt. Terunofuji is spotless, but so far no one has looked unbeatable.

[Karasukurai 146]

I was looking forward to Ura Vs Enho - sorry Enho was injured but glad of the Ura win. Interesting to see in the slow-mo replay how big Ura's arms are compared to Enho's. Ura has really filled out but I gather he wants to lose a bit and puts weight gain down to lack of exercise after his injury. Despite his bigger size, Ura still seems pretty flexible, his save on the tawara today was testament to this; his balance really is exceptional, even when he's crouched very low. Hope he manages to stay 'relatively' injury free for the next few years, I just love watching the guy and I'd like to see him getting a long run in the top division.

IMO if Terunofuji stays healthy enough, this basho is his to lose. Takakeisho may run him close though. Looking forward to tomorrow, especially the young 'uns, Hoshoryu Vs Onosho - should be interesting.

[Ripe 17]

5 hours ago, Jyuunomori said:

Are we really gonna see Terunofuji do the fabled double promotion from Ozeki to Yokozuna in a back-to-back basho? 

I doubt they'll promote him even if he get a Zensho... I have a feeling they'll go that if back-to-back Zensho weren't enough to promote Futabayama (never mind that it was in 30s) then whatever Terunofuji get should also not be enough. But it might put him on a serious run, requiring him to just be in the race on final day at Nagoya (or wherever July tournament take place). .

[Jakusotsu 4,370]

1 hour ago, Ripe said:

I doubt they'll promote him even if he get a Zensho...

But then again - playing devil's advocate here - Terunofuji already broke one of those post-Futahaguro "rules" when he first got promoted to Ozeki without three (let alone consecutive) basho at Sanyaku. The last previous rikishi to receive that honour was said Kitao who had a substantially stronger record.

I wouldn't blink an eye if a strong yusho will get him the rope, if only to fill the imminent vacuum. Those standards leaving even the likes of Takanohana out in the rain seem to be long gone now.

 

[Benihana 1,633]

27 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

But then again - playing devil's advocate here - Terunofuji already broke one of those post-Futahaguro "rules" when he first got promoted to Ozeki without three (let alone consecutive) basho at Sanyaku. The last previous rikishi to receive that honour was said Kitao who had a substantially stronger record.

I wouldn't blink an eye if a strong yusho will get him the rope, if only to fill the imminent vacuum. Those standards leaving even the likes of Takanohana out in the rain seem to be long gone now.

Playing devil's advocate i'd say they stall the promotion as long as possible, hoping his knees will finally quit before they have to give the rope to another Mongolian.

Edited May 10, 2021 by Benihana

[jsolo 99]

Natsu Basho (May) Links and statistics Blog updated through Day 2 

All but the NHK video, which will be available in about 10 hours.  Condensed results, Kimarite and time of bout statistics. San'yaku performance, Maegashira v San'yaku table, match articles and photos.

 

May Basho Day 2 Links Blog complete 

 

[Ripe 17]

2 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

But then again - playing devil's advocate here - Terunofuji already broke one of those post-Futahaguro "rules" when he first got promoted to Ozeki without three (let alone consecutive) basho at Sanyaku. The last previous rikishi to receive that honour was said Kitao who had a substantially stronger record.

I wouldn't blink an eye if a strong yusho will get him the rope, if only to fill the imminent vacuum. Those standards leaving even the likes of Takanohana out in the rain seem to be long gone now.

 

True but that was for Ozeki... a rank where there is a built in system to protect them from making a mistake and prematurely promoting someone. There is no such system with Yokozuna. Once someone is promoted to the rank that is it. There is no way to demote someone from the rank.

[Jakusotsu 4,370]

Doing some research: after establishing the rank of yokozuna on the banzuke there have only been two periods of vacancy: 1931-1932, and 1992-1993. The latter was filled with the first ever foreign born yokozuna (Akebono). Since then only 3 out of 9 yokozuna were of Japanese origin with two decades between the siblings and the straggler.

Implications? Who knows...

[dingo 535]

7 hours ago, Thorbjarn said:

Don't think they will promote Terunofuji with a singular Yusho, even if it's Zensho. Can't really give a proper reasoning, purely gut feeling. 

I can think of a reason - they'll want to make sure he'll be able to stay healthy while putting up yokozuna numbers consistently against top level competition. 

[Gospodin 130]

Uh - today Takayasu relived his high school street fight fighting years - if he had such.

Seriously, it happens less frequently than over the last two years, but I am wondering what makes him lose his calm, or not getting it, in such bouts.

Edited May 10, 2021 by Gospodin

[Rocks 1,657]

Just now, Gospodin said:

Uh - today Takayasu relived his high school street fight fighting years - if he had those.

Seriously, it happens less frequently than over the last two years, but I am wondering what makes him lose his calm, or not getting it, in such bouts.

I think fighting Chiyonokuni would make anybody lose their calm. 

[Tigerboy1966 818]

A sekiwake yusho followed by an ozeki yusho has never happened in the modern era, so we would be in uncharted waters if Terunofuji wins.

The only pre-modern example gives little occasion for optimism:

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=3&form1_rank=s&form1_y=on&form2_rank=o&form2_y=on

I suppose that when Futabayama failed to earn promotion there were already 3 yokozuna and as he was so obviously a stone-cold certainty to get the rank it didn't hurt to make him wait one more basho.

[Gospodin 130]

2 minutes ago, Rocks said:

I think fighting Chiyonokuni would make anybody lose their calm. 

Ha ! True, but if it only were against him.

[Kaninoyama 1,082]

1 hour ago, Rocks said:

I think fighting Chiyonokuni would make anybody lose their calm. 

Yep, that was all Chiyonokuni bringing a street fight to a sumo bout, and Takayasu being unable to do anything other than respond in kind. 

[Eikokurai 3,179]

2 hours ago, dingo said:

I can think of a reason - they'll want to make sure he'll be able to stay healthy while putting up yokozuna numbers consistently against top level competition. 

Tbh, I think he’s already cleared the health hurdle with his five consecutive kachikoshi in Makuuchi and general performance since return from kyujo. If he yushos this time, that will be six, of which the previous four would be double-digit records in sanyaku with two yusho and one doten. One more basho isn’t going to add any new information. He’s answered the question. No, if they ask for a repeat performance in July it won’t be because of concerns about his health but because of all the traditional reasons they want back-to-back yusho or equivalent.

Edited May 10, 2021 by Eikokurai

[Morty 1,352]

4 hours ago, dingo said:

I can think of a reason - they'll want to make sure he'll be able to stay healthy while putting up yokozuna numbers consistently against top level competition. 

I can think of another one - he has never previously taken a yusho as an Ozeki. His three yusho have been at Sekiwake (2) and M17 (1). He had 14 previous Ozeki basho without a yusho. They may want him to prove he can win one at that level before he is considered "on a run"? 

[Eikokurai 3,179]

44 minutes ago, Morty said:

I can think of another one - he has never previously taken a yusho as an Ozeki. His three yusho have been at Sekiwake (2) and M17 (1). He had 14 previous Ozeki basho without a yusho. They may want him to prove he can win one at that level before he is considered "on a run"? 

Yes, I think so too. As I said earlier, perhaps if he had an Ozeki yusho in the bank he might get the nod this time, but I’m inclined to think not just yet.

[Sue 422]

1 hour ago, Morty said:

I can think of another one - he has never previously taken a yusho as an Ozeki. His three yusho have been at Sekiwake (2) and M17 (1). He had 14 previous Ozeki basho without a yusho. They may want him to prove he can win one at that level before he is considered "on a run"? 

Why would the rank that one wins the yusho from matter? Mayyyyyyybe you could argue that a makujiri yusho started with some rather soft opposition, but the torikumi makers will match a contender with all the other contenders, so you're going to face most of the top ranks anyway, and from sekiwake, you're running into exactly the same folks that a Y or O would.

[Ichimawashi 568]

Is the YDC recommendation based on a majority, a super-majority, or unanimity?  That's what will decide Terunofuji's rank in July if he posts a 14-1 or 15-0.  If they all have to agree, no chance.  If a simple majority is enough, maybe.

[Eikokurai 3,179]

23 minutes ago, Sue said:

Why would the rank that one wins the yusho from matter? Mayyyyyyybe you could argue that a makujiri yusho started with some rather soft opposition, but the torikumi makers will match a contender with all the other contenders, so you're going to face most of the top ranks anyway, and from sekiwake, you're running into exactly the same folks that a Y or O would.

Terunofuji already used his Sekiwake performance to make Ozeki—he can’t claim credit for it twice! In sumo, you attain ranks in increments. Each one is a platform for the next. When you become Ozeki, your slate is wiped clean and you start again.

[Godango 580]

I'm surprised we're even entertaining the idea of Terunofuji promotion with any kind of yusho here. 

There is ample reason between his injury history and his first basho back at the ozeki rank to unquestionably justify non-promotion. 

I don't see them going out on a limb to bend the rules for an ageing (sure, 29 ain't old but it ain't young), injury-time-bomb Mongolian.

Were this Takakeisho I could see them going out of their way to make the case (yeeha, young Japanese yokozuna!), but not here. 

Also I don't think I want them to. His Ozeki re-promotion was made particularly satisfying but just how strong his promotion was, to deny it would have been lunacy. Let him do the same to earn to rope and have one of those satisfying dramatic arcs that sumo is so unique in providing.

[Eikokurai 3,179]

6 minutes ago, Houmanumi said:

I'm surprised we're even entertaining the idea of Terunofuji promotion with any kind of yusho here.

Just a fun thing to discuss as fans. :) 

People have their eye on history: Could he be the first man to pass through Ozeki in one basho? Nobody has ever won back-to-back as Sekiwake and Ozeki, so it’s fun to anticipate it happening and ruminate over how the Kyokai might respond in that event.

What else are we going to talk about? :)

[WAKATAKE 2,193]

With this discussion going, if I really do see a Kintamayama April Fool's joke actually coming true, then he gets steak of his choice on me. You can hold me to that. Throw on an IPA too

[Kintamayama 38,044]

53 minutes ago, WAKATAKE said:

With this discussion going, if I really do see a Kintamayama April Fool's joke actually coming true, then he gets steak of his choice on me. You can hold me to that. Throw on an IPA too

Medium rare, please. But it won't happen. Hot apple pie for me. With vanilla ice cream and some whipped cream.