Natsu basho 2021

[dada78641 871]

5 hours ago, Rocks said:

Oh, the heck with it. 3 way playoff in July between Terunofuji, Takakeisho and Takayasu. Takakeisho wins the yusho. All 3 get promoted for Aki. 

Getting an early start on the Ridiculous Predictions topic?

[sahaven111 162]

5 hours ago, Gurowake said:

And just for completeness, there could be a Mitakeumi to Ozeki promotion if he manages a 14+ win Yusho. 

There can not be. Mitakeumi precedent; Mitakeumi can't be an Ozeki

[Yamanashi 3,249]

5 hours ago, Katooshu said:

With this talk of who would be 73rd or 74th yokozuna, I can't help but imagine a scenario where they crash into each other so hard in next basho's yusho decider that they combine into 1 unstoppable monster yokozuna called Terunokeisho 

https://madmax.fandom.com/wiki/Master_Blaster?file=Master_Blaster.jpg

 

[Jabbamaru 162]

Omedetou Kaiju
Yokozuna ozumo!

 

[Godango 823]

Alrighty, here's me with wasting time at work (and if this should move to another thread, someone let me know and/or Mods to your thing).

Since the 6-basho era, there have been 28 Yokozuna promotions.

Post-Futahaguro, there have been 12. 

----

Category 1: Back to Back Yusho

6-basho Era: 11 (39%) of promotions earned this way. No Ozeki who won back to back yusho in this time were denied. Minimum wins were 25 (Taiho, 1961).

Post-Futahaguro: 8 (67%) of promotions earned this way. No Ozeki who won back to back yusho in this time were denied. Minimum wins were 26 (Wakanohana III, 1998 & Musashimaru, 1999).

Conclusion: With 13-2 Y, Terunofuji's promotion is all but assured. 12-3 Y has historical precedent.

Category 2: Yusho + Jun-Yusho

6-basho Era: 7 (25%) of promotions earned this way. Minimum wins were 25 (Wakanohana I, 1957 & Hokutoumi, 1987). Average wins, 26.29.

Post-Futahaguro: 2 (17%) of promotions earned this way. Minimum wins were 25 (Hokutoumi, 1987). Average wins, 25.5.

Conclusion: With 13-2 JY, Terunofuji's promotion would not be unheard of.  14-1 JY would be wholly justifiable and in line with past and recent precedent.

Category 3: Yusho + Doten

6-basho Era: 2 (7%) of promotions earned this way. Minimum wins were 26 (Kitanoumi, 1974). Average wins, 27.

Post-Futahaguro: 1 (8%) of promotions earned this way. 28 wins (Kakuryu, 2014).

Conclusion: 15-D would be required for the win total precedent, but given the above on Y + JY

• For Terunofuji 13-2 D is likely enough, 14-1 D a virtual guarantee.
• Likewise for Takakeisho, 13-2 Y may be enough, a 14-1 Y should do the trick.

Category 4: 1 Yusho

6-basho Era: 1 (4%) of promotions happened this way, Tochinoumi 1963. 27 wins.

Post-Futahaguro: Hasn't happened.

Conclusion: 15-0 would be required to get to 27 wins. If Teru doesn't get Y/D/J, I'm sure we all agree he's no chance. I only included this for completeness.

Category 5:  2 Doten

6-basho Era: 1 (4%) of promotions happened this way, Wakanohana II 1978. 27 wins. Back-to-back 12-3D, 12-3Y wasn't enough to earn Wakanohana I promotion in 1956.

Post-Futahaguro: Hasn't happened.

Conclusion: 15-0 D would be required to get to 27 wins. You'd have to imagine they'd promote Takakeisho off the back of that. Takakeisho/Takanosho doten, anyone? I suppose at 13+ wins it would be unprecedented, and stranger things have happened.

Category 6:  1 Doten & 1 Jun-Yusho

6-basho Era: 2 (7%) of promotions happened this way, (Mienoumi 1979,  Futahaguro 1986). Average wins, 26.5.

Post-Futahaguro: Hasn't happened.

Conclusion: 15-0 would be required to get to 27 wins. Takakeisho needs doten at a minimum.

Category 7:  1 Doten 

6-basho Era: 2 (7%) of promotions happened this way, (Kashiwado 1961,  Tamanoumi 1969). Average wins, 23.

Post-Futahaguro: Hasn't happened.

Conclusion: Yeah we all know this isn't gonna happen. 

----

Well, forgive the long post, but if we go by historical standards that's what we're looking at.

Realistically, Takakeisho needs nothing less than 13-2 D to even start the conversation. 14-1 Y to be virtually assured of promotion. 

For Terunofuji, 13-2 Y/D/J is probably enough, 14-1 anything virtually assures it.

Now, tear my methodology apart, forum members!

 

Edited May 24, 2021 by Godango
Cat 5 should have been two doten, corrected Y/D/C typo.

[Gurowake 3,690]

47 minutes ago, Godango said:

Now, tear my methodology apart, forum members!

Some people have been denied promotion with records that were good enough to promote others, both for Ozeki and Yokozuna.  There's more to consider than just the record and their honors, but the overall history as well as how they looked in the ring.  The historical setting is also relevant; when there are less Yokozuna, they will be more likely to promote, if only marginally.  If there's a question of whether they will be able to maintain their tsuna run form because of other issues, such as past inconsistencies, they'll want a stronger record.  Kisenosato got in with very little in terms of immediate honors the two tournaments before, but had such a good 6-tournament run, plus a long history of strong results as Ozeki, that they were really only waiting for a Yusho to promote him so he didn't end up like Futahaguro and be forced to retire without a Yusho.  I gave my opinions above on the matter, which are definitely informed less by historical data, but what the more recent data seems to say about the candidate's long-term potential at Yokozuna.  History might guide you as to when they might consider pulling the trigger, but in each case there's more to it than just the records and honors.

Edited May 24, 2021 by Gurowake

[Katooshu 2,713]

It probably shouldn't be surprising given his injury history, but I was still surprised when sumodb-ing to see that Terunofuji has actually spent less time in makuuchi than the likes of Shodai, Mitakeumi, and Daieisho.

Edited May 24, 2021 by Katooshu

[Godango 823]

8 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Some people have been denied promotion with records that were good enough to promote others, both for Ozeki and Yokozuna.  There's more to consider than just the record and their honors, but the overall history as well as how they looked in the ring.  The historical setting is also relevant; when there are less Yokozuna, they will be more likely to promote, if only marginally.  If there's a question of whether they will be able to maintain their tsuna run form because of other issues, such as past inconsistencies, they'll want a stronger record.  Kisenosato got in with very little in terms of immediate honors the two tournaments before, but had such a good 6-tournament run, plus a long history of strong results as Ozeki, that they were really only waiting for a Yusho to promote him so he didn't end up like Futahaguro and be forced to retire without a Yusho.  I gave my opinions above on the matter, which are definitely informed less by historical data, but what the more recent data seems to say about the candidate's long-term potential at Yokozuna.  History might guide you as to when they might consider pulling the trigger, but in each case there's more to it than just the records and honors.

Fully agree, I was considering adding my own personal options on the intangibles but decided to stick with the pure numbers.

That said, IMO:

• Teru's form since returning, plus the depleted state of the Upper Sanyuku probably makes up for his past injury issues and I think the numbers above hold up. 
• Takakeisho's poor January may hurt him and require him to aim a little higher. 

[Eikokurai 3,418]

1 hour ago, Godango said:

Alrighty, here's me with wasting time at work (and if this should move to another thread, someone let me know and/or Mods to your thing).

Since the 6-basho era, there have been 28 Yokozuna promotions.

Post-Futahaguro, there have been 12. 

----

Category 1: Back to Back Yusho

6-basho Era: 11 (39%) of promotions earned this way. No Ozeki who won back to back yusho in this time were denied. Minimum wins were 25 (Taiho, 1961).

Post-Futahaguro: 8 (67%) of promotions earned this way. No Ozeki who won back to back yusho in this time were denied. Minimum wins were 26 (Wakanohana III, 1998 & Musashimaru, 1999).

Conclusion: With 13-2 Y, Terunofuji's promotion is all but assured. 12-3 Y has historical precedent.

Category 2: Yusho + Jun-Yusho

6-basho Era: 7 (25%) of promotions earned this way. Minimum wins were 25 (Wakanohana I, 1957 & Hokutoumi, 1987). Average wins, 26.29.

Post-Futahaguro: 2 (17%) of promotions earned this way. Minimum wins were 25 (Hokutoumi, 1987). Average wins, 25.5.

Conclusion: With 13-2 JY, Terunofuji's promotion would not be unheard of.  14-1 JY would be wholly justifiable and in line with past and recent precedent.

Category 3: Yusho + Doten

6-basho Era: 2 (7%) of promotions earned this way. Minimum wins were 26 (Kitanoumi, 1974). Average wins, 27.

Post-Futahaguro: 1 (8%) of promotions earned this way. 28 wins (Kakuryu, 2014).

Conclusion: 15-D would be required for the win total precedent, but given the above on Y + JY

• For Terunofuji 13-2 D is likely enough, 14-1 D a virtual guarantee.
• Likewise for Takakeisho, 13-2 Y may be enough, a 14-1 Y should do the trick.

Category 4: 1 Yusho

6-basho Era: 1 (4%) of promotions happened this way, Tochinoumi 1963. 27 wins.

Post-Futahaguro: Hasn't happened.

Conclusion: 15-0 would be required to get to 27 wins. If Teru doesn't get Y/D/J, I'm sure we all agree he's no chance. I only included this for completeness.

Category 5:  1 Doten & 1 Jun-Yusho

6-basho Era: 1 (4%) of promotions happened this way, Wakanohana II 1978. 27 wins. Back-to-back 12-3D, 12-3Y wasn't enough to earn Wakanohana I promotion in 1956.

Post-Futahaguro: Hasn't happened.

Conclusion: 15-0 D would be required to get to 27 wins. You'd have to imagine they'd promote Takakeisho off the back of that. Takakeisho/Takanosho doten, anyone? I suppose at 13+ wins it would be unprecedented, and stranger things have happened.

Category 6:  1 Doten & 1 Jun-Yusho

6-basho Era: 2 (7%) of promotions happened this way, (Mienoumi 1979,  Futahaguro 1986). Average wins, 26.5.

Post-Futahaguro: Hasn't happened.

Conclusion: 15-0 would be required to get to 27 wins. Takakeisho needs doten at a minimum.

Category 7:  1 Doten 

6-basho Era: 2 (7%) of promotions happened this way, (Kashiwado 1961,  Tamanoumi 1969). Average wins, 23.

Post-Futahaguro: Hasn't happened.

Conclusion: Yeah we all know this isn't gonna happen. 

----

Well, forgive the long post, but if we go by historical standards that's what we're looking at.

Realistically, Takakeisho needs nothing less than 13-2 D to even start the conversation. 14-1 Y to be virtually assured of promotion. 

For Terunofuji, 13-2 Y/D/C is probably enough, 14-1 anything virtually assures it.

Now, tear my methodology apart, forum members!

 

This would sit quite nicely as a reference in the ‘Tsuna runs without renzoku yusho’ thread.

Also, I like this new division of sumo history time in relation to Futahaguro. It’s probably not the mark he’d have wanted to leave on sumo, but it’s something! 

Edited May 24, 2021 by Eikokurai

[Reonito 923]

I'd put Hokutoumi and Onokuni in the pre-Futahaguro era, as the relevant date is his intai in 1988, not his promotion in 1986.

[Eikokurai 3,418]

6 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I'd put Hokutoumi and Onokuni in the pre-Futahaguro era, as the relevant date is his intai in 1988, not his promotion in 1986.

Not really. Futahaguro’s promotion was unusual. He had no yusho to his name. It was controversial even without what happened later. That’s the relevant detail in a discussion about promotion criteria.

Edited May 24, 2021 by Eikokurai

[Godango 823]

15 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I'd put Hokutoumi and Onokuni in the pre-Futahaguro era, as the relevant date is his intai in 1988, not his promotion in 1986.

 

9 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Not really. Futahaguro’s promotion was unusual. He had no yusho to his name. It was controversial even without what happened later. That’s the relevant detail in a discussion about promotion criteria.

What Eikokurai said. Although I do understand your point, as their approach to promotions arguably changed after his intai. Doesn't change a great deal in the conclusions reached, at any rate.

[Morty 1,433]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

Some people have been denied promotion with records that were good enough to promote others, both for Ozeki and Yokozuna.  There's more to consider than just the record and their honors, but the overall history as well as how they looked in the ring.  The historical setting is also relevant; when there are less Yokozuna, they will be more likely to promote, if only marginally.  If there's a question of whether they will be able to maintain their tsuna run form because of other issues, such as past inconsistencies, they'll want a stronger record.  Kisenosato got in with very little in terms of immediate honors the two tournaments before, but had such a good 6-tournament run, plus a long history of strong results as Ozeki, that they were really only waiting for a Yusho to promote him so he didn't end up like Futahaguro and be forced to retire without a Yusho.  I gave my opinions above on the matter, which are definitely informed less by historical data, but what the more recent data seems to say about the candidate's long-term potential at Yokozuna.  History might guide you as to when they might consider pulling the trigger, but in each case there's more to it than just the records and honors.

Re the intangibles I wonder if the fact that for the past three plus years, while there have been Yokozuna on the banzuke, this often didn't translate to Yokozuna competing on the dohyo, and especially not finishing tournaments they started? Terunofuji's knees are cactus - to quote from Moti's rikishi talk thread: ex-Aminishiki "He had trouble walking after day 8.. I think when he puts on weight it hurts more. He hadn't trained much before the basho because of his condition."

A Yokozuna promotion, and the privileges that come with it, would just add another rikishi carrying significant injuries, who would potentially spend more time on the sidelines than on the dohyo. So I wonder if this will be factored in when considering his (potential) promotion? I suspect if he gets back to back yusho as an Ozeki they can't not promote him, but for all the other scenarios I wonder whether this would be a factor? Do they want another perennially injured Yokozuna skipping or dropping out of tournaments, even if he is the best rikishi out there right now?

[Godango 823]

Just now, Morty said:

Re the intangibles I wonder if the fact that for the past three plus years, while there have been Yokozuna on the banzuke, this often didn't translate to Yokozuna competing on the dohyo, and especially not finishing tournaments they started? Terunofuji's knees are cactus - to quote from Moti's rikishi talk thread: ex-Aminishiki "He had trouble walking after day 8.. I think when he puts on weight it hurts more. He hadn't trained much before the basho because of his condition."

A Yokozuna promotion, and the privileges that come with it, would just add another rikishi carrying significant injuries, who would potentially spend more time on the sidelines than on the dohyo. So I wonder if this will be factored in when considering his (potential) promotion? I suspect if he gets back to back yusho as an Ozeki they can't not promote him, but for all the other scenarios I wonder whether this would be a factor? Do they want another perennially injured Yokozuna skipping or dropping out of tournaments, even if he is the best rikishi out there right now?

My counter to that would be that it's about strength against your available peers. In the past three years of shaky Yokozuna, no-one has consistently risen to the top until now, so no-one was consistently stronger than they're available peers. Terunofuji has thus far proven to be with his record since his return. 

The injuries are a fair point, but that said if he's the dominant rikishi he's the dominant rikishi, and he's only had one kyujo (with a kachikoshi) since his return. That's better than the rest of upper sanyaku have managed over the past year IIRC.

[Asashosakari 17,372]

I don't think we'd have to worry about Terunofuji going endlessly kyujo as yokozuna just to milk paychecks and/or chase fleeting hopes of further yusho opportunities amid mounting injuries. His promotion would be more in the realm of a lifetime achievement award, not one expected to build an era or a case for the record books. With his history just getting there is the goal, and I'd expect his yokozuna career to look a bit like that of his shisho who went from consistent yusho challenger to retired in a span of eight months.

 

1 hour ago, Katooshu said:

It probably shouldn't be surprising given his injury history, but I was still surprised when sumodb-ing to see that Terunofuji has actually spent less time in makuuchi than the likes of Shodai, Mitakeumi, and Daieisho.

Heck, he's even behind same birth year Kotoyuki. 

[Kintamayama 42,367]

3 hours ago, Godango said:

For Terunofuji, 13-2 Y/D/C is probably enough, 14-1 anything virtually assures it.

Secret message?

Edited May 24, 2021 by Kintamayama

[Godango 823]

1 minute ago, Kintamayama said:

Secret message?

...yes... as I'm certainly above making such an error. 

[Seiyashi 3,840]

36 minutes ago, Godango said:

39 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

Secret message?

...yes... as I'm certainly above making such an error. 

In other circles we would call it a Freudian slip...

[Gaijingai 1,407]

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/05/5feddbd87ae5-sumo-terunofuji-needed-desperate-effort-to-win-may-tourney.html

[Wakaebala 151]

On 23/05/2021 at 12:09, Morty said:

Be honest - four years ago, out of Sato and Ura, who did you think would end up the Ozeki with a couple of yusho and looking at his second rope run?

Wait for it... Ura can still make it to Yok first! :D 

[ryafuji 793]

10 hours ago, Reonito said:

I'd put Hokutoumi and Onokuni in the pre-Futahaguro era, as the relevant date is his intai in 1988, not his promotion in 1986.

I agree with this. It was only Futahaguro retiring in disgrace that kicked off the "post-Futahaguro" era. The first rikishi to suffer from it was Asahifuji, who won a yusho in January 1988 but was denied promotion despite going 14-1D, 13-2J, 13-2D in 1989.

[Asashosakari 17,372]

The thing to keep in mind is that Futahaguro wasn't some doofus who walked into the yokozuna rank, as he at least implicitly tends to be portrayed nowadays. He was a highly regarded prodigy putting up 12+ win records in his early 20s. As controversial as the decision to promote him without any yusho might have been (and I tend to believe there's been some revisionist history towards over-exaggerating it), it must have been near-inconceivable at the time that he wouldn't be winning one before too long. Heck, a 31-year-old Mienoumi was promoted just 7 years before with the only yusho to his name having come nearly half a decade earlier at sekiwake. That's a case where everybody involved lucked out that he somehow produced two yokozuna yusho shortly after; Futahaguro must have looked like a downright conservative bet in comparison.

Also, the whole "only yokozuna without any yusho" thing would almost definitely be seen in a much more sympathetic light if the cause of it had been a Kisenosato-style early injury rather than Futahaguro just being an idiot that got ousted. I don't even think the hard line stance they took afterwards was about protecting the rank or any rikishi; it was just a CYA "we'll only promote guys now who make us promote them" approach to avoid getting blamed for promotion decisions that fail to work out.

Edited May 24, 2021 by Asashosakari

[Eikokurai 3,418]

I offered similar mitigation when he died and people were reflecting on his career. It’s easy to remember him as a failed Yokozuna and completely miss that he wasn’t made Yokozuna as a result of a lottery or because he won the rope in a TV game show. He was a talented Ozeki with a very respectable record at that rank (albeit a relatively brief stint). 

That said, I have a sly feeling that his ignominious end may have been seen by some inside the Kyokai as a blessing in disguise. It gave them an excuse to raise the promotion criteria back to a more fitting level. Had he succeeded as a Yokozuna, a definitive precedent would have been set that Ozeki can be promoted without yusho under their belt. That could have had lasting ramifications. It would have been hard after that to deny basically any Ozeki who managed even one, let alone more. How would the YDC explain not promoting Konishiki, Takanonami, Kaio, Chiyotaikai or Tochiazuma in this alternative timeline where Futahaguro ended up good? Those guys would have every reason to be peeved at being passed over, having seen this other guy get the rope so easily. As it was, Futahaguro’s self-destruction handed the YDC the perfect justification to demand more of candidates, and so Kisenosato was only #72 and not #77 or higher.

Edited May 24, 2021 by Eikokurai

[mikawa 1,782]

https://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/202105230001508.html?mode=all

According to this article, Terunofuji's comeback can be partly attributed to the story of Yoshiki Fuse, whose sumo achievements in spite of his disability helped give Terunofuji the courage to overcome his injuries and battle his way back to Makuuchi.

Here's a video that Akinomaki shared in the Amasumo section that tells the story of Yoshiki Fuse:

 

[jsolo 106]

May Basho links and statistical blog--Complete

Includes, a thumbnail statistical sketch of Terunofuji's Basho,  complete Kimarite statistics with comparisons to March, complete time of match statistics with comparisons to March and January, and, for those who may have missed, a single link to all 280 full match videos (available via NHK until June 7) and a single link to tachiai.org's complete archived coverage of the last 4 basho (November 2020-May 2021--no more endless scrolling). Also direct links to Chris Sumo daily videos from the venue and playlists of his coverage of the last several basho.

May Basho links and statistics blog--Complete