Natsu basho 2021

[mikawa 1,794]

After that hairpull and that loss against Endo, it would have been mentally difficult for Terunofuji to get over this basho if he didn't get the Yusho, so I'm glad that he won the play-off today.

[robnplunder 974]

Hmm.  I sure hope the last loss by Takayasu won't come back to haunt him in his Ozeki run.   He really needed the win to have a better shot at Ozeki promotion after July.   

 

[huntershi96@gmail.com 0]

big congratulation to teru. genuinely worried that he might lost to keisho in the end

[Kaninoyama 1,652]

30 minutes ago, Morty said:

Be honest - four years ago, out of Sato and Ura, who did you think would end up the Ozeki with a couple of yusho and looking at his second rope run?

Well, if you go back and look at their records from four years ago, they aren't really comparable. Sato had won 4 kakudan yusho before promotion to Makuuchi, and by the end of 2017 Takakeisho had earned three sansho, three kinboshi, and a jun-yusho. 

Ura made it to M4 and picked up a kinboshi in 2017 before succumbing to injuries. Without the health issues who knows how his career might of progressed, but he wasn't quite on the same trajectory as Sato. 

Takakeisho has always been undersold on this forum, but his record has consistently told a different story. 

 

 

Edited May 23, 2021 by Kaninoyama

[Eikokurai 3,433]

2 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

Takayasu struggled a lot more with Takanosho than I expected. That loss leaves him at 20/30 and with a mountain to climb for Ozeki repromotion in July. He's never managed 13 wins and hasn't even scored 12 for 3 years. He really needed at least 11 this time to have a shot in July. Still, it's a good enough record to be the first in a new run.

 

15 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

Hmm.  I sure hope the last loss by Takayasu won't come back to haunt him in his Ozeki run.   He really needed the win to have a better shot at Ozeki promotion after July.   

Yeah, I feel the same. 12-3 would be a struggle but 13-2 means needing to have the best basho of his career. 

Edited May 23, 2021 by Eikokurai

[cyclonicleo 19]

I wonder how the powers that be will look upon Teru going to a playoff to win the cup? Would it count against him if he won the next tournament in less than dominant fashion (remembering the 2 wins by an Ozeki rule)?

Edited May 23, 2021 by cyclonicleo

[Morty 1,476]

6 minutes ago, Kaninoyama said:

 

Takakeisho has always been undersold on this forum, but his record has consistently told a different story. 

 

 

I guess that's my point. In 2017 when they both reached Juryo at about the same time all the hype was about Ura. But Sato has absolutely nailed it. The guy is 5'8", only two inches taller than Enho, yet he's going toe to toe with 6'3" monsters like Terunofuji and breaking even. In any other combat sport that would be impossible. Huge props to him, he is absolutely incredible and I hope he gets the rope

[Seiyashi 4,068]

18 minutes ago, cyclonicleo said:

I wonder how the powers that be will look upon Teru going to a playoff to win the cup? Would it count against him if he won the next tournament in less than dominant fashion?

On Twitter, courtesy of Asahi_Sumo via Herouth: Isegahama acknowledges that Terunofuji is on a rope run - if he comes up with qualifying results it will be on the table. Doesn't really answer your question, because the debate has been exactly what a qualifying result is, but since that same comment mentioned 3 yusho with two consecutive, it may or may not imply that a yusho is needed.

The same source reports/quotes Isegahama as saying that Takayasu may be considered for repromotion to ozeki if he wins 13 with a yusho, although I don't see that happening.

Edited May 23, 2021 by Seiyashi

[Amamaniac 2,078]

Just a side note to all the excitement, Wakanohana III's unbroken record for wrong championship predictions (I'm going to call it chigaippanashi - not an actual term as far as I know) lives on!  He had put his money (reputation more) on a Takakeisho championship, and to his credit, he came awfully close.  

Did he jinx Takakeisho?  You be the judge. 

If I were Takakeisho, I'd tell Waka to stop picking him!  LOL

Edited May 23, 2021 by Amamaniac

[Seiyashi 4,068]

2 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

Just a side note to all the excitement, Wakanohana III's unbroken record for wrong championship predictions (I'm going to call it chigaippanashi - not an actual term as far as I know) lives on!  He had put his money (reputation more) on a Takakeisho championship, and to his credit, he came awfully close.  

Did he jinx Takakeisho?  You be the judge. 

I think this is the actual closest he's been to predicting it correct and it basically came down to 50/50. Most of the time his predictions have wound up imploding way before or going kyujo mid basho.

Edited May 23, 2021 by Seiyashi

[since_94 650]

It wasn’t pretty—a tsukiotoshi followed by a hatakikomi—and the quietude of a half-filled Kokugikan where cheers are banned undeniably detracts from the climactic character of the whole spectacle, but I’m grateful we still have Sumo and I’m happy for Terunofuji. Ishiura’s shitatehineri against Kotonowaka was amazing today, even if the wrong guy won that bout.

[Tigerboy1966 1,372]

1 hour ago, Morty said:

Be honest - four years ago, out of Sato and Ura, who did you think would end up the Ozeki with a couple of yusho and looking at his second rope run?

Four years ago I wouldn't have backed either of them, although I might have favoured Sato on sheer bulk. It was obvious to me in 2017 that Onosho would blow right by them and usher in the Onosho-Ishiura-Chiyoshoma era.

Takakeisho is a massive over-achiever, and fair play to him for that.

Edited May 23, 2021 by Tigerboy1966
clarify

[Amamaniac 2,078]

2 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Four years ago I wouldn't have backed either of them, although I might have favoured Sato on sheer bulk. It was obvious to me in 2017 that Onosho would blow right by them and usher in the Onosho-Ishiura-Chiyoshoma era.

When I see that term in a history of sumo, I will throw away all my notes.  I've heard of the Haku-Ho Era, but ...  Then again, Ono-Ishi-Ma does roll off the tongue, sort of.  

[Gospodin 185]

Terunofuji has trouble when he doesn´t manage to get some space between him and his opponent after the tachiai. That kachiage gave him all he needed to avoid being in the defensive/countering mode from the start. We might see it more often.

[Godango 956]

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

So the odd part is that no rikishi has ever started a tsuna run with a 12-3D. Terunofuji's 12-3Y puts him in the company of - surprisingly, only Hokutoumi; every other 12-3 start of a tsuna run has been a JY (with the exception of Terukuni's non-honour, although that is a surprisingly apropos comparison given Terunofuji's shikona was drawn partially from Terukuni's). All of these rikishi, however, went either 13-2 or 14-1 (3J, 3Y and 1D) in the following basho, so it's safe to assume that Terunofuji needs at least 13 wins to be promoted next basho.

If one takes a D to be better than JY, then by that token Takakeisho also needs a 13-2 or better next basho to be promoted as well. Ideally, he should also win the yusho and at the very minimum force a playoff again; a JY is very risky. The only 12-3J followed by a D was Futahaguro, whose precedent the Kyokai can't be too happy to repeat. Onokuni also went 12-3J 13-2J, but before the Futahaguro affair really broke, and those two aren't really the best yokozuna candidates to be comparing against either.

The bad news is that 13-2 is the best that both Takakeisho or Terunofuji have ever managed. The good news is that all the 14-1 results from the 12-3 yokozuna potentiates were also achieved for the first time in the course of the tsuna run. So if the shimpan make any statements on the possibility of a promotion next basho for either of these two ozeki, that might well be the push they need to really seal that promotion.

2 hours ago, Katooshu said:

I dunno, even if he goes 12-3Y again I think he'll be promoted. 3 yusho in a row, 2 as ozeki, I think it's enough...

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

It's not impossible, but even with double yusho it will be the weakest ever rope run in the 15-day basho era - the absolute minimum previously was 25/30. While the NSK may decide that their need for a yokozuna is pressing enough to do the unprecedented, it's much safer to assume he needs at least 13 to make his promotion a lot less controversial.

I'm firmly with Katooshu here. 3 consecutive yusho, 2 at ozeki would be more than enough. They'll be happier with a higher score, sure, but I would say even an 11-4 Y would do the trick.

Regarding Takakeisho, a 13-2 JY may well be enough (though realistically 14-1 JY would likely be the number). I doubt the Futahaguro precedent would come in to play at all, the key difference here is Takakeisho is a proven yusho winner, with 2 already to his name, and 2 additional playoffs. Not the same at all.

 

 

[Ripe 65]

1 hour ago, robnplunder said:

Hmm.  I sure hope the last loss by Takayasu won't come back to haunt him in his Ozeki run.   He really needed the win to have a better shot at Ozeki promotion after July.  

1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

Yeah, I feel the same. 12-3 would be a struggle but 13-2 means needing to have the best basho of his career. 

I'd say that loss put his Ozeki run on life support... he didn't have a 12 wins basho since Kyushu 2018 and now he'll need 13 wins which is something he never achieved in his career! And even 13 wins might not be enough since we already have a Miyabiyama precedent who wasn't promoted with 10-5, 14-1D, 10-5...

Edited May 23, 2021 by Ripe

[Godango 956]

3 minutes ago, Ripe said:

I'd say that loss put his Ozeki run on life support... he didn't have a 12 wins basho since Kyushu 2018 and now he'll need 13 wins which is something he never achieved in his career! And even 13 wins might not be enough since we already have a Miyabiyama precedent who wasn't promoted with 10-5, 14-1D, 10-5...

10-5, 10-5, 13-2 is an upward trajectory, at least. Between that and the potential for a sudden ozeki shortage, might be enough. But he has to do it first.

[Ripe 65]

Just now, Godango said:

10-5, 10-5, 13-2 is an upward trajectory, at least. Between that and the potential for a sudden ozeki shortage, might be enough. But he has to do it first.

Yeah, and it would be probably be enough for first promotion to the rank... but this would be repromotion of someone who already held the rank and lost it (due to injury, but still). They might be a bit more reluctant to promote him then they would be someone new.

[Amamaniac 2,078]

Takakeisho looks pretty good on paper (and his in-ring performance is better than certain sumo fans predicted).

He has two Top Division championships to his name, and five runner-up finishes ... and he's only 24.  

Spoiler

Are we seriously calling him Sato now?  

 

[Seiyashi 4,068]

12 minutes ago, Ripe said:

19 minutes ago, Godango said:

10-5, 10-5, 13-2 is an upward trajectory, at least. Between that and the potential for a sudden ozeki shortage, might be enough. But he has to do it first.

Yeah, and it would be probably be enough for first promotion to the rank... but this would be repromotion of someone who already held the rank and lost it (due to injury, but still). They might be a bit more reluctant to promote him then they would be someone new.

Not just someone who held the rank and lost it due to injury (IMO the manner of losing it is not very important): someone who held the rank, at best strung together junyusho during his first tenure, and then had a massive choke to lose a yusho from 2 wins up within recent memory. As it is he is still the only rikishi to compete all 15 days, go 2 wins up by day 10, and not get the yusho; he didn't even wind up with the JY thanks to that last loss against Aoiyama.

33/3 is a first-time benchmark to assess candidates whose performance at that level is hitherto unknown. That logic gets modified for repromotees. You can't deny Terunofuji with 36/3 and every possible yusho honour (YDJ) in the three basho under consideration, but a 10-5 choke, 10-5 meh, is going to require a really good score to seal it. Even a 13-2 Y is only "consideration" according to Isegahama, and it's already asking him to put on better sumo than he's ever put on in his life.

That yusho requirement is actually pretty clever and sneaky, because it's not normally a requirement for ozeki candidates to win a yusho although one does sometimes result from a good run. I see it as a Takayasu-specific requirement because the man is notoriously nervous around silverware, and you can argue it's more mental than physical. So what Isegahama is really saying is "prove that you have the mentality of an ozeki to be in the title race and we'll promote you", which considering his history is fair.

I'm actually more surprised that Takayasu's repromotion chances are being discussed over Takakeisho's promotion chances. If you ask me, I think the latter has more chance of getting the rope than the former reattaining ozeki.

Edited May 23, 2021 by Seiyashi

[Fukuyamada 42]

Takayasu is good, but he squandered winning or advantageous positions whilst pushing near the edge to slap downs and pull downs. I think it happened 2 or 3 times this basho. He probably needs to work on that in training. He seems pretty well rounded otherwise.

[rzombie1988 157]

Glad the basho's over. It was a complete waste of time as far as I'm concerned since Terunofuji wasn't getting the nod here no matter what happened, even though he's obviously deserving of it. Takakeisho should have already been promoted using the Kakuryu rule of a win + a 2nd place result, though he has the lesser case of the two.

Hopefully both guys do well next tournament and we can finally stop playing games.

And on Asanoyama, it's the lying that got him. Had he just fessed up to breaking the rule, he would have been a lot better off. I don't think we will be talking about him again until 2023.

Edited May 23, 2021 by rzombie1988

[Fukuyamada 42]

If Hakuho comes back next basho and wins that, none of them will be promoted.

[Kotogouryuu 126]

12 minutes ago, rzombie1988 said:

Takakeisho should have already been promoted using the Kakuryu rule of a win + a 2nd place result, though he has the lesser case of the two.

I suspect the "Kakuryu rule"  was actually the "Kisenosato rule", and Kakyryu just happened to achieve it first, and put the comitee in a tough spot. I would not be surprised if they've since revised the line, and Y+J just isn't enough anymore.

[Godango 956]

32 minutes ago, rzombie1988 said:

Takakeisho should have already been promoted using the Kakuryu rule of a win + a 2nd place result, though he has the lesser case of the two.

18 minutes ago, Kotogouryuu said:

I suspect the "Kakuryu rule"  was actually the "Kisenosato rule", and Kakyryu just happened to achieve it first, and put the comitee in a tough spot. I would not be surprised if they've since revised the line, and Y+J just isn't enough anymore.

 

I don't know why Kakuryu is even being mentioned in this context, 14-1 D / 14-1 Y is an obvious promotion. Takakeisho hasn't come close to that.