Natsu basho 2021

[Masunofuji 36]

All is right in the world 

Terunofuji-seki omedetou!

[Katooshu 3,081]

I don't think there would be much controversy if he's won 3 straight yusho

[Kintamayama 44,250]

9 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Terunofuji getting a few laughs out of the audience. Wish my listening comprehension was a little better.

He was sked how his condition is. "The usual.." he answered, as he usually does, laconically.

[Eikokurai 3,433]

15 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

It's not impossible, but even with double yusho it will be the weakest ever rope run in the 15-day basho era - the absolute minimum previously was 25/30. While the NSK may decide that their need for a yokozuna is pressing enough to do the unprecedented, it's much safer to assume he needs at least 13 to make his promotion a lot less controversial.

Depends how you look at it. Kisenosato's was weaker numerically over two basho. I see no way they deny a guy who has put up 13-2D, 11-4, 12-3Y, 12-3Y and 12-3Y* since returning to sanyaku. That'd be back-to-back Ozeki yusho backed up by a string of high-level performances, even if they aren't officially counted towards the run. I don't think there's much controversial about promoting him with 12-3 and his fifth (!) yusho.

*Hypothetical

Edited May 23, 2021 by Eikokurai

[Asashosakari 18,668]

17 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

So the odd part is that no rikishi has ever started a tsuna run with a 12-3D.

I dunno, they didn't rule it out categorically for Terunofuji after Aki 2015.

[ViscountessNivlac 24]

I don’t know if Takakeisho’s 12-3 D is going to be good enough after the January talk of “Even a 15-0 might not do.”

[pricklypomegranate 730]

Need your help identifying what on earth this is. 

I posited that it contained Hakuho's final horcrux. Can only be broken by yokozuna's sword. 

[Tigerboy1966 1,374]

I don't know if anyone else has started drafting their GTB entries, but just wait till you get down to m3w, at which point madness ensues.

[Eikokurai 3,433]

6 minutes ago, ViscountessNivlac said:

I don’t know if Takakeisho’s 12-3 D is going to be good enough after the January talk of “Even a 15-0 might not do.”

But back then he didn't have a 12-3JY > 13-2Y combo in his recent past to do some of the lifting. If he follows this 12-3D with a yusho, that will be two jun-yusho and two yusho inside a year, all ranked at Ozeki. That's a more compelling case than could be made in January. Context shifts.

Edited May 23, 2021 by Eikokurai

[Seiyashi 4,068]

52 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

It's not impossible, but even with double yusho it will be the weakest ever rope run in the 15-day basho era - the absolute minimum previously was 25/30. While the NSK may decide that their need for a yokozuna is pressing enough to do the unprecedented, it's much safer to assume he needs at least 13 to make his promotion a lot less controversial.

Depends how you look at it. Kisenosato's was weaker numerically over two basho. I see no way they deny a guy who has put up 13-2D, 11-4, 12-3Y, 12-3Y and 12-3Y* since returning to sanyaku. That'd be back-to-back yusho backed up by a string of high-level performances, even if they aren't officially counted towards the run. I don't think there's much controversial about promoting him with 12-3 and his fifth (!) yusho.

Not really? Kise went 26/30 over 2 basho: 12-3J and 14-1Y. It's true the 12-3Y is stronger than his 12-3J, but I'm not sure that another 12-3Y vs 14-1Y would be assessed to be stronger by the numbers (whether or not it's enough is separate because that's ultimately decided by whether he's promoted).

I'm somewhat more convinced by the 5-basho performance numbers. Only 32 yokozuna have put up 50 wins or better in the 5 basho preceding their promotion (including a handful of pre-Chiyonoyama ones, but excluding - surprise - Hakuho?), and Terunofuji's 60 wins actually puts him in the above average category here together with Harumafuji, Wakanohana II, Takanosato, Kitanoumi and Kagamisato. So if the NSK has a longer frame of reference then yes, Terunofuji has pretty good odds even if he only goes JY here.

Notably, with 3-4 basho honours in that period, he matches if not beats most if not all yokozuna potentiates, losing only to Wajima, who went 13-2J (S2eHD), 11-4J, 11-4J, 13-2J, 15-0Y for a 4-basho ozeki tenure and the only rikishi to have basho honours in all 5 pre-yokozuna basho.

40 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

45 minutes ago, ViscountessNivlac said:

I don’t know if Takakeisho’s 12-3 D is going to be good enough after the January talk of “Even a 15-0 might not do.”

But back then he didn't have a 12-3JY > 13-2Y combo in his recent past to do some of the lifting. If he follows this 12-3D with a yusho, that will be two jun-yusho and two yusho inside a year, all ranked at Ozeki. That's a more compelling case than could be made in January. Context shifts.

To be clear, when he had his 12-3 JY -> 13-2 Y at the end of last year, his best ozeki result outside of that was 11-4. If you count his ozekiwake basho then the 12-3 D playoff he lost to Mitakeumi comes in, but it definitely doesn't help that that was a very depleted basho and he wasn't formally at the ozeki rank then either. But now, with a 12-3D and a possible 13-2Y coming up, he will still have put up double digits in 5 out of 6 basho in a year where the last one was kyujo.

That said, his case needs a bit more forcing than Terunofuji's, though. He definitely needs a slightly better result than Terunofuji to be equally considered. What about a 14-1Y for him with a 13-2JY for Terunofuji - would that do for a double promotion?

49 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

So the odd part is that no rikishi has ever started a tsuna run with a 12-3D.

I dunno, they didn't rule it out categorically for Terunofuji after Aki 2015.

That's true, the DB won't capture potential but failed runs. So that's one weakness of a DB-based methodology. I guess it's more accurate to say that no rikishi has ever made good on a tsuna run starting with a 12-3D.

Edited May 23, 2021 by Seiyashi

[robnplunder 974]

29 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Yusho for Abi, Ura and Terunofuji today, all guys who've fallen down the banzuke and worked/are working their way back up.

Abi has some way to go.   I am not a big fan of his so I could really care less.  I didn't miss his absence at all.

Ura will be where he belongs in July, seemingly stronger than before. Welcome back!  

Terunofuji, given up for dead, clawed his way back and then some.  I don't like him much but, hey, R-E-S-P-E-C-T!   He has done a miraculous job of coming back. Given the current quality of top rikishi, he is a shoo-in for the next Yokozuna.

 

Mitakeumi had a decent basho, finishing with 3 wins.  I am shocked!  His rival, Shodai, survives kadoban.  

A minor step back for Hoshoryu, two steps forward in the next basho.   

Enho deserves a fighting spirit trophy of a kind.  The guy managed 5 wins despite the obvious injuries. 

Overall, I think this basho was "meh" for me compared to previous bashos.   In fact, I think I only watched 1/2 of the basho.   

[Eikokurai 3,433]

3 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Not really? Kise went 26/30 over 2 basho

Ah, fair enough. I remembered wrong. 

[Seiyashi 4,068]

10 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

I don't know if anyone else has started drafting their GTB entries, but just wait till you get down to m3w, at which point madness ensues.

I'd just put in a post on that in the promotion discussion thread - something like 16 spots needing to be filled, although the multitude of 7-8s means it's easy to just scooch everyone over a half rank or so. Between you and me, I'll wait to send in GTB this time especially to see what they're going to do with Asanoyama. 

[Rocks 1,804]

1 minute ago, Seiyashi said:

I'd just put in a post on that in the promotion discussion thread - something like 16 spots needing to be filled, although the multitude of 7-8s means it's easy to just scooch everyone over a half rank or so. Between you and me, I'll wait to send in GTB this time especially to see what they're going to do with Asanoyama. 

Asanoyama won't lose his rank. He'll be O2w on the next banzuke even if he retires.

[Eikokurai 3,433]

8 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

His rival, Shodai, survives kadoban.

And that's about the best we can say about him. He survived. The guy brought nothing to this basho, only to ruin the rare chance of a Makuuchi tomoesen by winning what was for him a dead rubber on the final day. Boo.  

[Seiyashi 4,068]

17 minutes ago, pricklypomegranate said:

Need your help identifying what on earth this is. 

I posited that it contained Hakuho's final horcrux. Can only be broken by yokozuna's sword. 

Tachiai's banner photo today shows that it's part of the prizes from Fukushima prefecture, if that helps anyone narrow it down a bit.

[Kintamayama 44,250]

I forgot all about this-relevant for this basho. From 2014.

 

[Naganoyama 5,809]

25 minutes ago, pricklypomegranate said:

Need your help identifying what on earth this is. 

I posited that it contained Hakuho's final horcrux. Can only be broken by yokozuna's sword. 

It looks like an Akabeko

[Amamaniac 2,078]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

That's a first; Tamawashi almost leaves the dohyo without collecting his kensho. He's halfway through turning to leave when he sees the kensho, and has to hastily stop and do the tegatana. 

Do you mean "a first for Tamawashi"?  Forgetting to collect kensho happens more often than you might think.  If I were to hazard a guess, I'd say once every three tournaments you might see a case.  Yes, that is not particularly significant, but today was definitely not the first time that has happened in the Top Division.  Tamawashi does not have a regular sponsor, so he probably never expects to collect anything after his wins.  

Makes one wonder just how much kensho act as an incentive for rank-and-file bouts.  Also makes you admire those wrestlers who are not focused on the money; they just mount the dohyo and focus on their sumo everyday (no distractions).

[Seiyashi 4,068]

Just now, Amamaniac said:

Do you mean "a first for Tamawashi"?  Forgetting to collect kensho happens more often than you might think.  If I were to hazard a guess, I'd say once every three tournaments you might see a case.  Yes, that is not particularly significant, but today was definitely not the first time that has happened in the Top Division.  Tamawashi does not have a regular sponsor, so he probably never expects to collect anything after his wins.  

Makes one wonder just how much kensho act as an incentive for rank-and-file bouts.  Also makes you admire those wrestlers who are not focused on the money; they just mount the dohyo and focus on their sumo everyday (no distractions).

I stand corrected; the first that I've noticed 

[Amamaniac 2,078]

8 minutes ago, Naganoyama said:

34 minutes ago, pricklypomegranate said:

Need your help identifying what on earth this is. 

I posited that it contained Hakuho's final horcrux. Can only be broken by yokozuna's sword. 

It looks like an Akabeko

Naganoyama is absolutely right about that.  赤べこ　Akabeko is written on the wooden base just in case anyone isn't sure.  This is the standard Fukishima Prefecture trophy.

[Amamaniac 2,078]

23 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

And that's about the best we can say about him. He survived. The guy brought nothing to this basho, only to ruin the rare chance of a Makuuchi tomoesen by winning what was for him a dead rubber on the final day. Boo.  

I just as disappointed as you that there wasn't a Top Division tomoesen.  But I definitely don't place the blame on Shodai.  Endo today was not the same Endo we saw on days 13 and 14.  Dare I say that he didn't look like he wanted to win?  So I say, "Boo" to Endo.

Who was he fighting again? 

[Seiyashi 4,068]

Just now, Amamaniac said:

I just as disappointed as you that there wasn't a Top Division tomoesen.  But I definitely don't place the blame on Shodai.  Endo today was not the same Endo we saw on days 13 and 14.  Dare I say that he didn't look like he wanted to win?  So I say, "Boo" to Endo.

Who was he fighting again? 

Maybe there wasn't enough kensho and/or Daishoryu's retirement fund was maxed.

[Morty 1,479]

Be honest - four years ago, out of Sato and Ura, who did you think would end up the Ozeki with a couple of yusho and looking at his second rope run?

[Gospodin 185]

23 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

I forgot all about this-relevant for this basho. From 2014

Wait. Why are so many people allowed in there ?