Akinomaki

Natsu basho 2021

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Posted (edited)
50 minutes ago, Swami said:

I don't think my comment merited that response but whatever.

Agreed.  

You are not the only one speculating on an exceptional Yokozuna promotion for Terunofuji.  Several of my Japanese friends share that view, which makes me suspect that the Japanese media is floating that remote possibility.  

While I do feel that such a promotion would be extremely unlikely (virtually impossible) given the two consecutive yusho (or equivalent) as an Ozeki prerequisite, Terunofuji's case is indeed something we've never really seen before.  

The Forum is a place for sharing views, not for putting people down.

Edited by Amamaniac
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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Gooner said:

Do you know when he will start in Ozumo? Another Mongolian giant?

No, Kazakhstani IIRC. He's serving some foreigner familiarisation period or somesuch that will delay his maezumo to either 6 months or a year after his peers (can't remember which).

Edited by Seiyashi

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5 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

No, Kazakhstani IIRC. He's serving some foreigner familiarisation period or somesuch that will delay his maezumo to either 6 months or a year after his peers (can't remember which).

Mongolian. I have heard six months, but no word on when the clock started ticking.

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Gooner said:

Do you know when he will start in Ozumo? Another Mongolian giant?

He's doing a 6-month apprenticeship with Naruto beya --he should be at least a few months into that by now, and I'd expect him to debut later this year.

Good size at about 186cm and 155kg, so a big Mongolian but not a giant.

Re: the Kazakh--that is a different guy. A similarly promising top collegiate competitor named Yersin Baltagulov. He is getting into giant territory at about 192cm/175kg. I'm not sure what's happening with him though. He had a strong final year and earned the qualification to start ozumo at sandamne, and I know he wanted to turn pro, but I'm yet to hear anything of him since he graduated. He was the same year as recent university graduates Nishikawa, Ishizaki, Kanno, Osanai, Suguro, and the soon to be pro Delgerbayar, and he has more potential than most of them.

Edited by Katooshu
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1 hour ago, Amamaniac said:

Agreed.  

You are not the only one speculating on an exceptional Yokozuna promotion for Terunofuji.  Several of my Japanese friends share that view, which makes me suspect that the Japanese media is floating that remote possibility.  

While I do feel that such a promotion would be extremely unlikely (virtually impossible) given the two consecutive yusho (or equivalent) as an Ozeki prerequisite, Terunofuji's case is indeed something we've never really seen before.  

The Forum is a place for sharing views, not for putting people down.

Thanks for that!  It will put the YDC and the Kyokai in an unprecedented position if he finishes with 14-1 this time, although I think it is more likely chat for promotion would be more serious if was to win the yusho again (assuming Terunofuji wins this time) in July.  But strictly speaking a three-basho run would mean September would be the expected target under normal circumstances, though clearly Terunofuji's comeback is a unique situation.

 

Swami

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Swami said:

I agree the three-basho totals is far from being the be-all and end-all. After all Wakanohana II and Onokuni both scored 40 wins over the three basho and didn't exactly have stellar careers. Plus the case of Wakanohana III highlights another point.  Winning back-to-back yusho to get promoted doesn't guarantee a successful stay as yokozuna even though that has been the de facto criteria for promtion since Futahaguro's exit. But from the point of view of gauging consistent performance, surely a three-basho spell is a better barometer, wouldn't you say, rather than just two?

I don't think my comment merited that response but whatever.

 

Swami

 

 

To be fair, you stated "I can't see him being considered for promotion until September (if you consider the three-basho totals)" but the point is that three-basho totals will not be considered. It's two consecutive yusho or the equivalent, so if he achieves that he will be a yokozuna after July. Whether three basho is a better barometer of consistent performance is an interesting question but it's not the promotion criteria the Kyokai uses.

Edited by ryafuji
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2 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

Several of my Japanese friends share that view, which makes me suspect that the Japanese media is floating that remote possibility.  

 

It is definitely not, at least online, because there is no way this will be possible.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Three-basho totals haven't been particularly relevant to yokozuna promotions in decades.

What was the standard when they were relevant, and did they lose their relevance immediately post-Futahaguro or at some other point in time?

Edited by Atenzan
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23 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

It is definitely not, at least online, because there is no way this will be possible.

But what if Hakuho retires after the (planned) Olympic Games? 

IF:
- Terunofuji wins in May AND July (after winning March) 
- There is no other viable candidate in the Ozeki ranks (Asanoyama out, Takakeisho flukes again, Shodai stays Shodai) 
- AND there is no Yok on the top of the Banzuke in September

Wouldn't it make sense for the Kyokai to go for a (hope-to-be-)last mongolian Yokozuna (with those knees), while they're trying to figure out who to build up after Asanoyama? 

So in other words: why are you so sure, it cannot happen? 

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1 minute ago, Wakaebala said:

But what if Hakuho retires after the (planned) Olympic Games? 

IF:
- Terunofuji wins in May AND July (after winning March) 
- There is no other viable candidate in the Ozeki ranks (Asanoyama out, Takakeisho flukes again, Shodai stays Shodai) 
- AND there is no Yok on the top of the Banzuke in September

Wouldn't it make sense for the Kyokai to go for a (hope-to-be-)last mongolian Yokozuna (with those knees), while they're trying to figure out who to build up after Asanoyama? 

So in other words: why are you so sure, it cannot happen? 

After July, sure. Now? No way. The question was asked regarding his promotion after this basho.

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1 minute ago, Wakaebala said:
32 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

It is definitely not, at least online, because there is no way this will be possible.

But what if Hakuho retires after the (planned) Olympic Games? 

IF:
- Terunofuji wins in May AND July (after winning March) 
- There is no other viable candidate in the Ozeki ranks (Asanoyama out, Takakeisho flukes again, Shodai stays Shodai) 
- AND there is no Yok on the top of the Banzuke in September

Wouldn't it make sense for the Kyokai to go for a (hope-to-be-)last mongolian Yokozuna (with those knees), while they're trying to figure out who to build up after Asanoyama? 

So in other words: why are you so sure, it cannot happen? 

I think some lines have crossed here. Kintamayama is probably referring to promoting Terunofuji after yushoing this basho, and he says that cannot happen, which is in line with sumo orthodoxy. Swami is saying that Terunofuji needs 3 basho as ozeki before promotion, which a few others are disagreeing with.

Your listed scenario of double yushos as an ozeki now and in July will, I think, result in his promotion as long as his yusho isn't a 11-4 howler or something like that: 13-2 will be enough I think. But no yokozuna on the banzuke will not save a meh promotion run; sumo has survived a period of no yokozuna before and it will again.

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Posted (edited)

My bad. :) I might be a little too tired and a little too hungarian for asking questions in these late hours... :D Seiyashi is right, I might have misunderstood Kinta.

Edited by Wakaebala

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2 minutes ago, Wakaebala said:

My bad. :) I might be a little too tired and a little too hungarian for asking questions in these late hours... :D Seiyashi is right, I might have misunderstood Kinta.

szeretlek.. (the only Hungarian word I know) oh yeah, and gyere ide..

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Why on Earth will Terunofuji NOT be offered the full Ozeki package? While he is on a yokozuna run (now or next basho). His performance can only be deemed as 'less impressive' by no fault of his own...

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3 hours ago, Wakaebala said:

My bad. :) I might be a little too tired and a little too hungarian for asking questions in these late hours... :D Seiyashi is right, I might have misunderstood Kinta.

I had a friend from Hungary in High School.  He taught me a few Hungarian words, but none I can repeat here.  Currently he's the CEO of an optics company and a musician.

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Terunofuji is looking really good, yet I think that the powers that be will deffo take (Pseudo) Nagoya into consideration, possibly to see if Terunofuji will be able to take down Hakuho. 

About the idea of perceived necessity for a Yokozuna:

They even had - somewhat of - a shot to advocate for Takakeisho, but instead of overpushing the idea of a young Japanese Yokozuna, they clearly demanded another strong performance in January, where Takakeisho folded. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Thorbjarn said:

possibly to see if Terunofuji will be able to take down Hakuho

I don’t know why people still see beating Hakuho as the benchmark. Mindsets seem stuck in the past where he’s concerned. He may be the GOAT but he’s not the obstacle to success he used to be. Frankly, he’s just another pretty decent rikishi now. Arguably, he should be more concerned about defeating Terunofuji than the other way around based on current form.

Think of 2021 Hakuho like one of those ex-Premier League footballers who moves to the US to play a few extra seasons in the MLS in the twilight of his career and earn a bit more cash. His pace has gone, age and injuries have taken their toll, his reactions have dulled and the power in his shots is diminished. Talent and experience means he can still hold his own, but nobody is intimidated by him anymore and he’s not winning matches on his own.

Edited by Eikokurai
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Posted (edited)

I think if Terunofuji wins this basho, then, no matter who he beats or loses to in July, it'll be yusho/d = promotion, no yusho or d = no promotion

Edited by Katooshu

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1 minute ago, Katooshu said:

I think if Terunofuji wins this basho, then, no matter who he beats or loses to in July, it'll be yusho = promotion, no yusho = no promotion

Exactly. Hakuho isn’t part of the equation.

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14 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

I think if Terunofuji wins this basho, then, no matter who he beats or loses to in July, it'll be yusho/d = promotion, no yusho or d = no promotion

I think they will be a little more generous than that. if terunofuji wins 14-1 here. I think he will get the rope in July if he is in the yusho race the whole way and finishes no worse than 1 win behind the Yusho winner and at least 13 wins. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

I don’t know why people still see beating Hakuho as the benchmark. Mindsets seem stuck in the past where he’s concerned. He may be the GOAT but he’s not the obstacle to success he used to be. Frankly, he’s just another pretty decent rikishi now. Arguably, he should be more concerned about defeating Terunofuji than the other way around based on current form.

I get your point, but this is not about what I think makes him worthy of the rope, this is what I think the people who decide about the matter might think about the situation. And I think this is how others making that point think aswell. (My head hurts after so much thinking.)

Adding to that, when there was doubt about whether or not they would promote Tochinoshin to Ozeki I remember there was a semi-official statement of one of the deciders that they would promote him under the condition of double digit wins plus beating Hakuho, so it's not just pulled out of thin air. 

Finally, talking about mindsets being stuck in the past: I think this is pretty much what people say about kiyokai and YDC, so it does not seem totally unrealistic to me that those deciding / influential parts of the process of Yokozuna promotion are putting forth criteria in a similar way. 

Hope this makes it a little clearer. 

Edited addendum: To hopefully clarify further - I think a Yusho in July will equal promotion (given that Terunofuji wins May), this scenario would be "strong Jun-Yusho in July", which I think could require him to beat Hakuho to maybe build his case. 

Edited by Thorbjarn
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14 hours ago, Katooshu said:

Yes, he was a collegiate wrestler at Nippon Sports Science University, and earned the sandamne debut by making the semifinals of the National University Championship. He lost in the semifinals to fellow sandamne starter Nishikawa, who then lost in the finals to Naruto's yet to debut foreigner Delgerbayar (who will start at Ms15TD).

Thank you very much for the answer. I'm interested to see how he will do in future bashos.

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9 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I think some lines have crossed here. Kintamayama is probably referring to promoting Terunofuji after yushoing this basho, and he says that cannot happen, which is in line with sumo orthodoxy. Swami is saying that Terunofuji needs 3 basho as ozeki before promotion, which a few others are disagreeing with.

Your listed scenario of double yushos as an ozeki now and in July will, I think, result in his promotion as long as his yusho isn't a 11-4 howler or something like that: 13-2 will be enough I think. But no yokozuna on the banzuke will not save a meh promotion run; sumo has survived a period of no yokozuna before and it will again.

The three-basho thing, whilst no longer about numbers, would be more about seeing a consistent level of performance.  If Terunofuji wins this time and in Nagoya, at the end of the day it is the Kyokai (with the YDC's recommendation) who will make the call.  Beating Hakuho may not be a factor if he, Hakuho, doesn't survive the first week at Nagoya. The worrying thing is if Terunofuji doesn't get promoted - which if he does, is really only going to be for a short time - where is the next yokozuna?  Before his woe this time, Asanoyama seemed to have hit a plateau, Shodai hasn't shown much and Takakeisho, in my mind, would be a disaster if he made yokozuna.  

Given Terunofuji's knees, he'll do well if he lasts another couple of years, though it would be a great story if he makes it.  He certainly has potential to win several more yusho.

 

Swami

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Ouhou limping badly after his loss to Shouhouzan today-his ankle hit the tawara as he was falling-must have twisted it. Everyone rushed to him as per the new guidelines whereupon you don't leave the injured guy there to deal with it on his own.

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1 minute ago, Kintamayama said:

Ouhou limping badly after his loss to Shouhouzan today-his ankle hit the tawara as he was falling-must have twisted it.

He looked to be moving a little better as he walked away, so lets hope it's just a minor knock. Shohozan proving he isn't ready for the Japanese equivalent of the pipe and slippers just yet.

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