Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Haru 2021

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

Not really. They did not have a lot of good demotion candidates, and no one forced the issue with a very strong performance. So one to replace Kakuryu due to his retirement, and the other to replace Yago for his 4-11 from J10. Bushozan loos to get a lucky break. Or it could be the other way around.

Edited by Morningstar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, Morningstar said:

Not really. They did not have a lot of good demotion candidates, and no one forced the issue with a very strong performance. So one to replace Kakuryu due to his retirement, and the other to replace Yago for his 4-11 from J10. Bushozan loos to get a lucky break. Or it could be the other way around.

Kotokuzan with a 4-3 at Ms3e is a perfectly respectable third promotion candidate, while it's unusual in recent years for a 7-8 J14 to get to stay. I'd be shocked if Yago were the one spared demotion, as that's never happened since Juryo has been at 28 rikishi.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ms3's that go 4-3 are routinely also not promoted. With the latest being Kitaharima in November 2020 going 4-3 and only making it to Ms1e. In the last decade alone there have been over a dozen examples. 

A J14 having a losing record and staying in Juryo has less precedent, but is not unknown. Wakakosho did it two times in a row with 7-8 scores till he finally got a 6-9 on the third try and got demoted back in 2004. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Kotokuzan with a 4-3 at Ms3e is a perfectly respectable third promotion candidate, while it's unusual in recent years for a 7-8 J14 to get to stay. I'd be shocked if Yago were the one spared demotion, as that's never happened since Juryo has been at 28 rikishi.

Well, I guess it's because Bushozan was only minimally demotable, a 4-3 at Ms3e isn't all that forcing of a record, and Kotokuzan would be debuting as a sekitori, combined with them not liking the shade on I threw on the fact that his romanized shikona implies he's from Sadogatake when he's not, that all together made them decide to pass on that promotion.  I think the last bit sealed the deal.

Edited by Gurowake
  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also, Kotokuzan was 2-1 in bouts against Juryo opponents and beat Bushozan head-to-head.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Morningstar said:

Ms3's that go 4-3 are routinely also not promoted. With the latest being Kitaharima in November 2020 going 4-3 and only making it to Ms1e. In the last decade alone there have been over a dozen examples. 

A J14 having a losing record and staying in Juryo has less precedent, but is not unknown. Wakakosho did it two times in a row with 7-8 scores till he finally got a 6-9 on the third try and got demoted back in 2004. 

All of which is completely irrelevant without looking at the actual context of each case. Not exchanging Bushozan and Kotokuzan here is extremely unusual.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

All of which is completely irrelevant without looking at the actual context of each case. Not exchanging Bushozan and Kotokuzan here is extremely unusual.

Right; for instance, in Wakakosho's case, the next-best promotion candidate was a 4-3 Ms7.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Demotable by the numbers but retained a spot in juryo (best available would-be replacement/s). Since 2004:

2004.03: J14e 7-8                       (Ms5e 4-3)
2004.05: J13e 6-9,  J14w 7-8            (Ms7e 4-3)
2005.03: J10w 5-10, J12e 6-9, J14e 7-8  (Ms5w 4-3, Ms7e 6-1)
2005.05: J12e 5-10                      (Ms6w 5-2)
2005.11: J11w 5-10                      (Ms5e 4-3, Ms7w 6-1)
2006.11: J8w  4-11                      (Ms4e 4-3)
2007.05: J14e 7-8                       (Ms4w 5-2) !
2010.03: J8e  4-11                      (Ms3e 4-3) !
2010.09: J14e 7-8                       (Ms4w 4-3)
2010.07: J10e 5-7-3                     (Ms6w 4-3)
2011.01: J14e 7-8                       (Ms5w 4-3)
2011.11: J8e  4-11                      (Ms5e 4-3, Ms6e 5-2)
2012.03: J10w 5-10, J12e 6-9            (Ms5w 4-3, Ms6w 5-2)
2012.07: J12w 6-9                       (Ms4w 4-3)
2012.11: J11w 5-10                      (Ms6e 4-3)
2013.09: J12e 6-9                       (Ms6w 5-2)
2013.11: J12e 6-9,  J14e 7-8            (Ms6e 4-3)
2014.11: J12w 6-9                       (Ms6e 4-3)
2015.09: J8e  4-11                      (Ms4w 4-3)
2016.07: J8e  4-11, J12w 6-9            (Ms4e 4-3)
2018.05: J10w 5-10                      (Ms5e 4-3, Ms6e 5-2, Ms7e 6-1)
2019.09: J13e 6-9                       (Ms6e 5-2)
2020.01: J13e 6-9                       (Ms6w 4-3)

The only comparable cases among all those were 2007.05 and 2010.03.


Meanwhile, the following borderline demotions took place from the first by-the-numbers spot:

2004.11: J14e 7-8            (Ms2w 4-3, Ms5e 6-1)
2007.05: J12e 6-9            (Ms2e 4-3)  
2008.01: J12e 6-9, J14e 7-8  (Ms2e 4-3, Ms4e 5-2)
2008.03: J12e 6-9            (Ms3e 5-2)
2008.05: J10e 5-10           (Ms2w 5-2)
2008.09: J14e 7-8            (Ms4w 4-3) !
2009.05: J14e 7-8            (Ms2e 4-3)
2010.03: J14e 7-8            (Ms1w 4-3)
2010.05: J14e 7-8            (Ms5e 5-2) !
2010.11: J8e  4-11           (Ms5w 5-2) !
2012.07: J6e  3-6-6          (Ms4e 4-3) !
2013.07: J10e 5-10           (Ms3w 4-3) !
2014.05: J12e 6-9            (Ms3e 4-3) !
2015.01: J12e 6-9            (Ms4e 4-3) !
2015.03: J10e 5-10           (Ms3e 5-2)
2015.11: J8e  4-11           (Ms4e 4-3) !
2017.01: J10e 5-10           (Ms3e 5-2)
2018.09: J12e 6-9            (Ms4w 5-2)

A much bigger list of guys placed the same or worse than Kotokuzan who got promoted anyway.


Edit: From the second by-the-numbers spot (excluding J14w 7-8, and basho where somebody else also got demoted from a first spot, i.e. already represented in the previous list):

2004.09: J12w 6-9              (Ms3e 5-2)
2005.07: J6w  3-12, J10w 5-10  (Ms4w 4-3, Ms6w 5-2) !!
2005.09: J10w 5-10             (Ms5e 5-2)
2006.05: J12w 6-9              (Ms1w 4-3)
2008.07: J10w 5-10             (Ms3w 4-3) !
2009.09: J10w 5-10, J12w 6-9   (Ms1e 4-3)
2010.09: J10w 5-10             (Ms3w 4-3) !
2013.03: J10w 5-10             (Ms5w 5-2) !
2014.07: J10w 5-10             (Ms3e 4-3)
2015.05: J12w 6-9              (Ms3e 6-1)
2019.03: J10w 5-10             (Ms3w 6-1)
2019.07: J10w 5-10             (Ms4w 4-3) !
2020.09: J12w 6-9              (Ms5w 6-1)

Edited by Asashosakari
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is this him having to pay some 'debt' to his corona kyujo benefit?

Super weird.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The only reason I can see for saving Bushozan is to treat all the 7-8s in Jurryo the same. I admit that the Banzuke committee doesn't usually do such things, but I'm struggling to come up with a good reason. 

There are six 7-8s in J11-J14 that cannot move far if at all. Jokoryu and Ichiayamamoto will move up and coming in should be Oho and Daishoho (or Mitoryu). I see some potential for lenient demotions for Mitoryu and Chiyootori.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Or they're placing all the emphasis on his day 15 "exchange bout"?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Or they're placing all the emphasis on his day 15 "exchange bout"?

True, though that would be harsh given that he had two other successful trips to Juryo.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, Sakura said:

True, though that would be harsh given that he had two other successful trips to Juryo.

Including defeating the man who presumably was his direct competitor for the last juryo slot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
On 28/03/2021 at 22:06, Rocks said:

Yes, Hidenoumi looks really wrong but so does Choynokuni, especially with Hoshoryu right there at 8-7 too. If Hoshoryu beats Hidenoumi on Day 15 he's there easy, but he didn't.

I know that Elo Ratings can't be used as a banzuke predictor (yet), but it's interesting to note that Hidenoumi didn't pass Hoshoryu on the last day.

So it's a possibility to place Hidenoumi behind the duo Chiyonokuni-Hoshoryu and above the duo Kiribayama-Myogiryu.

hoshoryu vs hidenoumi.png

Edited by Totorofuji

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Totorofuji said:
On 28/03/2021 at 21:06, Rocks said:

Yes, Hidenoumi looks really wrong but so does Choynokuni, especially with Hoshoryu right there at 8-7 too. If Hoshoryu beats Hidenoumi on Day 15 he's there easy, but he didn't.

I know that Elo Ratings can't be used as a banzuke predictor (yet), but it's interesting to note that Hidenoumi didn't pass Hoshoryu on the last day.

So it's a possibility to place Hidenoumi behind the duo Chiyonokuni-Hoshoryu and above the duo Kiribayama-Myogiryu.

If you don't put Hidenoumi at 3w you could probably place him down at M8 or even M9 as the intervening ranks are less difficult to fill.

Maybe they should just stick a banzuke chart on the wall and throw a dart at it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Maybe they should just stick a banzuke chart on the wall and throw a dart at it.

How do you know that's not what they do - or flip a coin or something - if they're deadlocked?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Seiyashi said:
4 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Maybe they should just stick a banzuke chart on the wall and throw a dart at it.

How do you know that's not what they do - or flip a coin or something - if they're deadlocked?

For extra-unpredictability they sometimes throw the darts blindfold and standing on one leg.

That's how Daieisho ended up at K2w last time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Tigerboy1966 said:
4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:
4 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Maybe they should just stick a banzuke chart on the wall and throw a dart at it.

How do you know that's not what they do - or flip a coin or something - if they're deadlocked?

For extra-unpredictability they sometimes throw the darts blindfold and standing on one leg.

That's how Daieisho ended up at K2w last time.

Don't forget breaking out the shochuu, sake, and awamori...

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

Don't forget breaking out the shochuu, sake, and awamori...

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a winner!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Reonito said:

BTW @Asashosakari may I respectfully ask if we can still expect a Day 15 wrap-up post?

So desu ne, we forget about day15 wrap-up as we are busy talking about Terunofuji and Juryo promotion (Laughing...)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 01/04/2021 at 16:42, Reonito said:

BTW @Asashosakari may I respectfully ask if we can still expect a Day 15 wrap-up post?

Oh good, I thought my searching skills had gone right out the window as I just couldn't find it!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
On 01/04/2021 at 16:42, Reonito said:

BTW @Asashosakari may I respectfully ask if we can still expect a Day 15 wrap-up post?

Right, I should do that. Sorry, low on time last Sunday and low on motivation since...


Day 15 (results, text-only results)

12-3 Se Terunofuji

11-4 M12w Aoiyama

10-5 O1w Asanoyama, O2e Takakeisho, K1e Takayasu, M2w Wakatakakage, M3e Meisei, M8w Tobizaru, M15w Hidenoumi

The top 4 of the Day 14 yusho arasoi were paired up for senshuraku, and the basho concluded with a deserved winner and an unexpected runner-up. Ozeki Takakeisho did all he could, but it wasn't enough to avoid getting overpowered by Terunofuji who thus picked up his third makuuchi saiko yusho, the first rikishi in history to win that often below the rank of ozeki, and left no doubt about his (by now confirmed) return to ozeki. The sole jun-yusho spot went to maegashira Aoiyama who defeated Takayasu with both their respective 11th win and a kanto-sho special prize on the line. What a rough finish for the komusubi, losing four of his last five to go from runaway championship contender status to...nothing, really. Okay, a promotion to sekiwake.

The 7-7 sanyaku quartet didn't manage the sweep after all. Just one loss, though, taken by the highest-profile rikishi Shodai, who was beaten by fellow ozeki Asanoyama and now has to enter the next tournament kadoban. The S/K trio of Takanosho, Mitakeumi and Daieisho prevailed over their opponents Tochinoshin, Ichinojo and Akiseyama (all hard-luck 7-8 in the end). All three will therefore retain their spots. That was particularly bad news for the other trio, down in the maegashira ranks. Hokutofuji, Wakatakakage (the latter beating the former on senshuraku) and Meisei all have eminently promotable records, but are likely to get stuck on the outside looking in for May. Meisei's victory over Tsurugisho at least resulted in a kanto-sho consolation prize for him, while a gino-sho went to Wakatakakage unconditionally. (For completeness, yusho winner Terunofuji received the basho's sole shukun-sho award.)

Six records of 10-5 or better in the joi-jin in the end, something last seen two years ago. That includes a decent if unspectacular showing by ozeki duo Takakeisho and Asanoyama. Some fans might bemoan the absence of truly outstanding performances, but I'm kind of enjoying the current trend of a lot of different rikishi getting their time to shine in turn. Three lower maegashira completed the lineup of double-digit winners for Haru with (of course) Aoiyama, alongside brothers Tobizaru and Hidenoumi. The latter has posted his first ever top division kachikoshi at the seventh time of asking. (If anyone happens to be wondering, one doesn't need to go back to the Taka-Waka days to find joint double digits by a pair of brothers: Roho and Hakurozan did it once, in Kyushu 2005.)

   2-1-12 Hakuho        Y    Kakuryu     0-0-10-i
     7-8  Shodai        O1   Asanoyama    10-5
    10-5  Takakeisho    O2   ---
    12-3  Terunofuji    S    Takanosho     8-7
    10-5  Takayasu      K1   Mitakeumi     8-7
     ---                K2   Daieisho      8-7

                        M1
     9-6  Hokutofuji    M2   Wakatakakage 10-5
    10-5  Meisei        M3
                        ...
                        M8   Tobizaru     10-5
    8-5-2 Chiyonokuni   M9   Hoshoryu      8-7
                        ...
                        M12  Aoiyama      11-4

I'd be very pleasantly surprised if they keep sanyaku at 10 by promoting Wakatakakage, but the smart bet is of course that nobody's going up from the maegashira ranks. I doubt they'll deny Hokutofuji the mini-promotion to M1w, so it's presumably going to be Waka/Hoku/Meisei in the top three slots next time. As has already been written about aplenty in this here thread it's going to get very messy after that with wild overpromotions and severe underdemotions galore.

__________________________________________________________________

The maegashira-juryo exchanges were all but definitive after Day 14 already, and Midorifuji's senshuraku win over Okinoumi cleared up the last piece of the puzzle. Juryo hopeful Enho did win as well, but he neither has a particularly strong claim for promotion with 9 wins at J4e nor is there any room to accommodate him now anyway.

Kotoshoho lost to visiting already-makekoshi Tokushoryu and at 1-6-8 he should be dropping far enough that an immediate return to makuuchi after May won't be a foregone conclusion.

The juryo race yusho...

11-4 J9w Hakuyozan

10-5 J7e Ura (10-4-1), J10e Takagenji, J13e Jokoryu, J14w Ichiyamamoto

9-6 J2e Ishiura, J3e Chiyomaru, J4e Enho, J7w Azumaryu

...concluded in the most straight-forward fashion with outright winner Hakuyozan. Ura had done his part to progress things towards a potential 10-5 playoff by knocking off co-leader Takagenji, but Chiyomaru wasn't able to follow suit against the eventual winner. Low-ranked erstwhile contenders Ichiyamamoto and Jokoryu proceeded to defeat their high-ranker opponents Ishiura and Akua anyway to finish in the joint runner-up spot. Not counting the messy post-yaocho May 2011 tournament, it's the first time in 13 years that nobody ranked J6 and better managed to reach 10+ wins.

(o)  5-10 Midorifuji    M10
                        M11  Kotoshoho    1-6-8 (x)
                        ...
(x)4-10-1 Yutakayama    M15
                        M16

                        J1   Akua          8-7  (o)
(o)  9-6  Ishiura       J2
(o)  9-6  Chiyomaru     J3   Chiyonoo      8-7
     9-6  Enho          J4
                        J5
                        J6
   10-4-1 Ura           J7
                        J8
                        J9   Hakuyozan    11-4

The next juryo banzuke looks pretty easy to compile down to J9, and then things are going off the rails with nobody having a record anywhere near good enough to deserve being placed at J10e and J10w, so a couple of rikishi will be getting very lucky there.

__________________________________________________________________

Part of the reason for that is that basically everybody finished 7-8 at the bottom of the division, yielding a split of 12 KK against 16 MK for this basho. Six of the bottom eight rikishi having exactly seven wins is a runaway record for sure (query with 14 juryo ranks since 2004with 13 ranks prior to that).

All three juryo bubble rikishi ended up saving themselves as part of that outcome, with Chiyonoumi and Nishikifuji defeating makushita contenders Daishoho and Kotokuzan, as well as Nishikigi winning against Chiyootori (who finished joint-last in the division at 4-11).

Yago's latest sekitori stint has ended on a marginally upbeat note as he ended his 11-day losing streak at the expense of deeply makekoshi makushitan Ryusei, shuffled up only due to maegashira Yutakayama's Day 14 kyujo. (And to my consternation they've actually left Ryusei's official final record as 1-6-1...)

Both sekitori rookies Takakento and Bushozan are also among the glut of 7-8 finishers, the former with an unfortunate loss on senshuraku, the latter with a victory that has seemingly turned out crucial for him in the most unexpected fashion. Last basho's newcomer Tohakuryu rounded out the 7-8 sixpack with a win, his sixth in a row.

                        J10  Yago          4-11 (x)
                        J11
(o)  7-8  Chiyonoumi    J12  Nishikifuji   7-8  (o)
                        J13  Nishikigi     7-8  (o)
(??) 7-8  Bushozan      J14

                        Ms1
(o)  4-3  Oho           Ms2  Daishoho      5-2  (o)
(??) 4-3  Kotokuzan     Ms3
     4-3  Tochimaru     Ms4
                        Ms5
     4-3  Roga          Ms6  Murata        4-3
                        Ms7  Kaisho        5-2

No, I still don't get it. Only Daishoho and Oho were announced as promotions to juryo this past Wednesday, which has to mean that Bushozan inexplicably survived as Kotokuzan has been snubbed. Here's hoping they didn't just create the most unlucky career-high Ms1 of the last several decades and he can still grab that promotion eventually, preferably right next time of course.

Edited by Asashosakari
  • Like 7
  • Thanks 20

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now