Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Haru 2021

[Tigerboy1966 1,054]

35 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

4 hours ago, Gurowake said:

emphasizes that KK maegashira absolutely must be promoted.

You know, I was convinced of this also until this happened to Yutakayama and Terutsuyoshi last year. Granted, different records and part of the banzuke, bu still, it can't be an absolute rule.

So the question is, is the inverse true - that MK maegashira absolutely must be demoted? This banzuke might see a lot of lucky 7-8s held at the same rank just to make things easier, like in Rocks' joi prediction regarding the M4 pair.

Well I have the M4s staying where they are despite MKs. The 3w spot looks problematic, to put it mildly, but I can't see Hidenoumi getting it. The other options are an over-promoted Chiyonokuni or an under-demoted Onosho. I've initially gone for Chiyonokuni, but it looks so wrong.

[Asashosakari 16,980]

20 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

My money would be on that period in the immediate aftermath of the merger between Tokyo and Osaka sumo, where they alternated host cities and used different banzukes in each. The db can only show the next, temporally sequential, banzuke.

Specifically, that was after they had given up on the idea of using different banzuke for each city and had re-merged the rankings, but in turn each new banzuke was now used for two tournaments (one Tokyo, one elsewhere).

[Rocks 1,750]

14 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Well I have the M4s staying where they are despite MKs. The 3w spot looks problematic, to put it mildly, but I can't see Hidenoumi getting it. The other options are an over-promoted Chiyonokuni or an under-demoted Onosho. I've initially gone for Chiyonokuni, but it looks so wrong.

Yes, Hidenoumi looks really wrong but so does Choynokuni, especially with Hoshoryu right there at 8-7 too. If Hoshoryu beats Hidenoumi on Day 15 he's there easy, but he didn't. So Hidenoumi? I don't know. 

As for the 7-8s I think they all hold their position next basho. Tochinoshin, Ichinojo and Akiseyama all had Sanyaku opponents at 7-7 trying for their KKs too which was very tough matchups. No shame in the loss. 

[Jakusotsu 4,993]

1 minute ago, Rocks said:

Yes, Hidenoumi looks really wrong but so does Choynokuni

Now, that's not a very nice thing to say.

[Seiyashi 3,527]

26 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Well I have the M4s staying where they are despite MKs. The 3w spot looks problematic, to put it mildly, but I can't see Hidenoumi getting it. The other options are an over-promoted Chiyonokuni or an under-demoted Onosho. I've initially gone for Chiyonokuni, but it looks so wrong.

You're not the only one. If there's a time for the shimpan to break the rule that MKs cannot be promoted, it would be now. It would be so much simpler if we could bump all the 7-8s up one rank; we simply don't have enough typically deserving candidates to fill three (?!) slots between M2W to M3W inclusive.

The other solution is to bump down the M4 pair a half-rank each to bring Hoshoryu up as well, creating even more banzuke luck in the name of fairness.

I don't know that it's a bad thing to have wanged my GTB entry in early, considering that there's going to be so much agonising over this banzuke. Oh well, it's a first entry, I'm not going to be too cut up about screwing it up.

Edited March 28, 2021 by Seiyashi

[Rocks 1,750]

20 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

The other solution is to bump down the M4 pair a half-rank each to bring Hoshoryu up as well, creating even more banzuke luck in the name of fairness.

That's probably the better solution. 

 

A M5w for Onosho seems off though. It's been 50 years since they have been that generous to a 4-11 M1 and M5 still seems too much for a 10-5 M15. But Hidenoumi beats out every other rikishi with a KK not already promoted above him. 

Edited March 28, 2021 by Rocks

[Tigerboy1966 1,054]

14 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I don't know that it's a bad thing to have wanged my GTB entry in early, considering that there's going to be so much agonising over this banzuke. Oh well, it's a first entry, I'm not going to be too cut up about screwing it up.

It will be my second GTB entry and I had some flukey beginners luck with my first one. I will be chewing it over and probably post my entry about 30 seconds before the deadline. I was also thinking that it would be an awful lot simpler if they micro-promoted the m4s. The main rule of banzuke construction is that there are no rules. They might just say "Well we have got it sorted down to 3w and Kiribayama is the next best wrestler so let's put him there".

[Rocks 1,750]

Some interesting parallels here to this basho. They sent a 10-5 M5e Toki all the way to M4e. That's almost 30 years more recent than the M5 for 4-11 at M1, but still 20 years ago.

Interesting thing there is they made a third Komusubi slot for a 9-6 M2e even with an 8-7 M1w. Were they just more generous with extra sanyaku slots 20 years ago?

Edited March 28, 2021 by Rocks

[Rocks 1,750]

Looking at Aki 1998 this doesn't seem so crazy: 

                          K2 Wakatakakage

Meisei                M1 Hokutofuji

Tobizaru           M2 Aoiyama

Chiyonokuni    M3 Hoshoryu

Kiribatama       M4 Myogiru

Hidenoumi      M5 Tsurugisho

 

But going back that far is probably a bad idea. 

 

Interesting thing is if they go with the idea they must promote a KK even if it's only a half rank AND that Meisei should leap frog Hokutofuji then making the 3rd komusubi slot is the only solution. 

Edited March 28, 2021 by Rocks

[Seiyashi 3,527]

10 hours ago, Rocks said:

 

Interesting thing is if they go with the idea they must promote a KK even if it's only a half rank AND that Meisei should leap frog Hokutofuji then making the 3rd komusubi slot is the only solution. 

I don't think Wakatakakage is getting a komusubi slot; I think they'd rather demote the M4 pair a half step instead. if a 13-2 M1 yusho isn't getting sekiwake, a 10-5 M2 SS isn't getting komusubi either.

[Tigerboy1966 1,054]

18 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I don't think Wakatakakage is getting a komusubi slot; I think they'd rather demote the M4 pair a half step instead. if a 13-2 M1 yusho isn't getting sekiwake, a 10-5 M2 SS isn't getting komusubi either.

This may have been mentioned already. After September 2019 Asanoyama was promoted from M2 to K with a 10-5 when there was no vacancy. In the same banzuke Hokutofuji also got promoted to K after a 9-6 at M1.

[Seiyashi 3,527]

1 minute ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

26 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I don't think Wakatakakage is getting a komusubi slot; I think they'd rather demote the M4 pair a half step instead. if a 13-2 M1 yusho isn't getting sekiwake, a 10-5 M2 SS isn't getting komusubi either.

This may have been mentioned already. After September 2019 Asanoyama was promoted from M2 to K with a 10-5 when there was no vacancy. In the same banzuke Hokutofuji also got promoted to K after a 9-6 at M1.

That is a precedent, but I would discount it slightly for two reasons: 1) based solely by looking on the banzuke, Asanoyama "benefitted" from banzuke symmetry after Hokutofuji was promoted, but you don't know that the shimpanbu decided to give Asanoyama a head start in sanyaku, considering that he was the most promising ozeki prospect at a time when the existing ozeki and yokozuna were fading out. 2) It is more dated than their surprise shafting of Daieisho, which before this banzuke, everyone would have said he was a lock for a sekiwake promotion.

Considering they have very huge gaps to fill with a variety of unappealing choices, and also that they apparently have no problem with an underpromotion at the top end of the banzuke, I don't see them tripping over themselves to overpromote Wakatakakage and make their problem worse. And now that I write this, I'm wondering whether or not they are more inclined to underdemote rather than overpromote, and hence Onosho and Takarafuji will have a very gentle fall.

[Akinomaki 35,590]

15 hours ago, Rocks said:

I'm thinking the joi shakes out like this:

Wakatakakage M1 Hokutofuji

Meisei               M2 Tobizaru

Aoiyama           M3 Hidenoumi

Kiribatama       M4 Myogiru

Chiyonokuni    M5 Hoshoryu

Yes,  over promotions for the M3s but what choice do they have? 10 wins outside of the top 3 and up was pretty impressive this basho.

I don't think they put Meisei over Hokutofuji. One of Meisei's wins was a fusen. Not his fault but not enough for the leap frog and holding Hokutofuji in the same rank IMO.

The banzuke prediction from Hochi and Chunichi shimbun has Meisei above Hokutofuji and Hoshoryu and Hidenoumi switched as main difference to your guess, and Chiyonokuni hops in front of Kiribayama

o

Edited March 29, 2021 by Akinomaki

[Seiyashi 3,527]

3 minutes ago, Totorofuji said:

Banzuke prediction from BBM Japan:

https://www.bbm-japan.com/article/detail/16951

the two M4 need to go down half a rank or it will look like a promotion as there is one less san'yaku above.

Technically yes, if you count ordinally from the top? But at the same time it's only your stated rank that matters. I don't think the shimpanbu has gone by this logic before; that said, 1) I'll be happy to be corrected and 2) the two M4 going down half a rank makes things a little fairer between Hoshoryu and Chiyonokuni.

[Seiyashi 3,527]

20 minutes ago, Totorofuji said:

of course
look at the current W/L-Matrix: Kiribayama is the rikishi number 17, and he will go up to 16 if he'll keep the same rank.

I'm not disputing that he will be "promoted" ordinally thanks to Kakuryu's retirement. As you've shown it's a matter of indexing a banzuke and there's nothing to dispute there. 

I'm disputing whether the shimpanbu even thinks ordinally in arranging the banzuke. For starters I highly doubt it because sanyaku shrinkages have happened before, and I don't see wrestlers stuck at the same rank celebrating a ordinal "promotion". It's always the listed rank number and not the ordinal that is celebrated. If you could show me proof to the contrary I will happily defer.

[Reonito 781]

33 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I'm disputing whether the shimpanbu even thinks ordinally in arranging the banzuke. For starters I highly doubt it because sanyaku shrinkages have happened before, and I don't see wrestlers stuck at the same rank celebrating a ordinal "promotion". It's always the listed rank number and not the ordinal that is celebrated. If you could show me proof to the contrary I will happily defer.

Kaisei remained at M12w in November 2020 after going 7-8 in September, despite the san'yaku shrinking by one.

[Seiyashi 3,527]

9 minutes ago, Reonito said:

43 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I'm disputing whether the shimpanbu even thinks ordinally in arranging the banzuke. For starters I highly doubt it because sanyaku shrinkages have happened before, and I don't see wrestlers stuck at the same rank celebrating a ordinal "promotion". It's always the listed rank number and not the ordinal that is celebrated. If you could show me proof to the contrary I will happily defer.

Kaisei remained at M12w in November 2020 after going 7-8 in September, despite the san'yaku shrinking by one.

And there we have it; if the shimpanbu had thought ordinally, Kaisei would not have been "promoted" with a makekoshi.

That's not to say the M4 pair are safe where they are; they could yet be bumped down for Hoshoryu's sake. But I think we're fairly safe in saying that whatever they are bumped down for, it will not be for avoiding an ordinal "promotion" if they were to stay in place.

Edited March 29, 2021 by Seiyashi

[Reonito 781]

5 minutes ago, Totorofuji said:

I count 9 san'yaku in both

I stand corrected, forgot that loss of the extra sekiwake slot was compensated for by Shodai's promotion. I'm pretty sure I've seen other examples in recent years, but can't recall them off the top of my head and it's not an easy db query.

[Seiyashi 3,527]

7 minutes ago, Reonito said:

15 minutes ago, Totorofuji said:

I count 9 san'yaku in both

I stand corrected, forgot that loss of the extra sekiwake slot was compensated for by Shodai's promotion. I'm pretty sure I've seen other examples in recent years, but can't recall them off the top of my head and it's not an easy db query.

Toyonoshima, M14E in Nagoya 19 to M14W in Aki 19. Sanyaku went from 10 to 9. The E-W slide for minimal MK is well known and accounts fully for the slide.

More blatant example: Kotoeko, Hatsu '19, sanyaku went from 10 to 9 and Takanoiwa also retired above him. Stayed at M15W for Haru '19.

Edited March 29, 2021 by Seiyashi

[Reonito 781]

Okay, look at Hatsu 2018. Kagayaki and Takekaze stayed at M12w and M13e after 7-8 records at Kyushu 2017, while the san'yaku shrank from 11 to 9, effectively giving them a full-rank promotion if we count positions from the top of the banzuke (from 35 and 36 to 33 and 34).

[Asashosakari 16,980]

The most recent case was a whole bunch of 7-8 maegashira keeping their ranks after Hatsu 2020 with sanyaku dropping from 8 to 7.

(That was in fact also the most recent basho that saw a sanyaku reduction altogether, so it's as current as it could possibly be.)

Edited March 29, 2021 by Asashosakari

[Reonito 781]

Only two promotions to Juryo is a bit of a surprise...

[Morningstar 115]

Not really. They did not have a lot of good demotion candidates, and no one forced the issue with a very strong performance. So one to replace Kakuryu due to his retirement, and the other to replace Yago for his 4-11 from J10. Bushozan loos to get a lucky break. Or it could be the other way around.

Edited March 31, 2021 by Morningstar

[Reonito 781]

40 minutes ago, Morningstar said:

Not really. They did not have a lot of good demotion candidates, and no one forced the issue with a very strong performance. So one to replace Kakuryu due to his retirement, and the other to replace Yago for his 4-11 from J10. Bushozan loos to get a lucky break. Or it could be the other way around.

Kotokuzan with a 4-3 at Ms3e is a perfectly respectable third promotion candidate, while it's unusual in recent years for a 7-8 J14 to get to stay. I'd be shocked if Yago were the one spared demotion, as that's never happened since Juryo has been at 28 rikishi.

[Morningstar 115]

Ms3's that go 4-3 are routinely also not promoted. With the latest being Kitaharima in November 2020 going 4-3 and only making it to Ms1e. In the last decade alone there have been over a dozen examples. 

A J14 having a losing record and staying in Juryo has less precedent, but is not unknown. Wakakosho did it two times in a row with 7-8 scores till he finally got a 6-9 on the third try and got demoted back in 2004.