Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Haru 2021

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Takagenji loses to Ura, but Hakuyozan wins his match and takes the Juryo yusho.

Enho wins, putting the pressure on Midorifuji for the last spot in Makuuchi.

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20 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Enho wins, putting the pressure on Midorifuji for the last spot in Makuuchi.

I don't see how a 9-6 J4 could possibly challenge a 4-11 M10 when there's a M17 slot available, but it is Enho after all...

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2 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

I don't see how a 9-6 J4 could possibly challenge a 4-11 M10 when there's a M17 slot available, but it is Enho after all...

There is a history of ignoring how many slots the next banzuke will have when deciding who to place in the division. 

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201403&heya=-1&shusshin=-1

Edited by Gurowake

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Still, a 9-6 J4 is not a strong enough case IMO.

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Sanyaku is now spoken for after both Daieisho and Mitakeumi win. Takayasu will be East Sekiwake no matter what. If Takanosho wins, he will join Takayasu as sekiwake, otherwise Mitakeumi will take the sekiwake slot and Takanosho will fall to K1w beside Daieisho.

Tough luck for Hokutofuji and Wakatakakage (and to a lesser extent Meisei).

EDIT: With Takanosho's win over Tochinoshin, he locks the remainder of the junior sanyaku in the same relative rank as this banzuke, with Takayasu taking over Terunofuji's sekiwake slot. Mitakeumi and Daieisho will slide over to be K1e and K1w respectively, a nominal "promotion".

Edited by Seiyashi

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We're going to have another case of a bunch of large overpromotions and underdemotions near the top of the maegashira.  There simply aren't any rikishi to reasonable put in the joi after the top 3 and Tobizaru, and problem continues for the rest of the top half of the maegashira before settling down to more common deviations from the by-the-numbers ranks. 

Mitakeumi and Takanosho getting their KK at the expense of Tochinoshin and Ichinojo was a big factor here, as the former two winning doesn't really affect anything beyond the top ranks getting shuffled a little, while the latter two losing puts them in a position of not being promotable and I can't see them actually being demoted because of the lack of candidates.  If they win their matches, they're well ahead of Chiyonokuni and Hoshoryu at claiming the open joi spots.

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6 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Tough luck for Hokutofuji and Wakatakakage (and to a lesser extent Meisei).

Had Hokutofuji won, they could at least have slid Wakatakakage over to the east side, but there seems to be no place for Hokutofuji except M2e, unless they don't leapfrog Meisei over him.

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6 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Takayasu will be East Sekiwake no matter what. If Takanosho wins, he will join Takayasu as sekiwake,

In general, incumbents to a rank will outrank newcomers to the rank, unless there is a severe mismatch in records.  For Ozeki and Yokozuna promotions in recent times, it's pretty much a hard-and-fast rule.  Terunofuji getting the east Sekiwake spot over Takanosho recently was a bit of an anomaly as you can see with a pretty even split of people in GTB picking Takanosho and Terunofuji for the S1e slot there.  http://sumodb.sumogames.de/gtb/GTBSelectionBasho.aspx?b=202101

Could Takayasu take the east Sekiwake slot?  It's definitely possible.  But if you consider that roughly half of GTB players didn't think Terunofuji's 13-2 was good enough to break the general "incumbent takes precedence" rule, you're going to be in a severe minority if you think Takakyasu's 10-5 will do it.  We've generally seen you need a 3 win advantage at very least before they break their normal rules on sanyaku movement.

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7 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

We're going to have another case of a bunch of large overpromotions and underdemotions near the top of the maegashira.  There simply aren't any rikishi to reasonable put in the joi after the top 3 and Tobizaru, and problem continues for the rest of the top half of the maegashira before settling down to more common deviations from the by-the-numbers ranks. 

Mitakeumi and Takanosho getting their KK at the expense of Tochinoshin and Ichinojo was a big factor here, as the former two winning doesn't really affect anything beyond the top ranks getting shuffled a little, while the latter two losing puts them in a position of not being promotable and I can't see them actually being demoted because of the lack of candidates.  If they win their matches, they're well ahead of Chiyonokuni and Hoshoryu at claiming the open joi spots.

Wow you're right. Other than the M2s and Meisei, the next KK is Tobizaru at M8. And even if you punt the flying monkey all the way up to M2w, you either drop Takarafuji really gently 3 ranks for a double digit howler, or move Chiyonokuni at M9 6 ranks up for effectively an 8-7. The only one available down there for huge jumps would be Aoiyama, who might pad out the problem a bit, but GTB this round is going to be really difficult.

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1 minute ago, Reonito said:

Had Hokutofuji won, they could at least have slid Wakatakakage over to the east side, but there seems to be no place for Hokutofuji except M2e, unless they don't leapfrog Meisei over him.

The addition of extra Komusubi slots when Hokutofuji had a KK at M1e, which led to Asanoyama being dragged up to Komusubi due to having a better claim if extra spots were being made, while generally not creating extra Komusubi spots, emphasizes that KK maegashira absolutely must be promoted.  Just because Meisei belongs above Hokutofuji doesn't mean he will be if it means Hokutofuji doesn't get a promotion. There's nothing against the rules of putting Hokutofuji ahead of Meisei since they don't have the same record; it's just bad banzuke luck for the latter.  But not promoting Hokutofuji would be against the rules.

Now, I haven't read the actual rules that may or many not exist to know if that's actually a set-in-stone rule on the same level of "someone with the same record (or worse) as another should never pass the latter" which is more or less common sense, so I suppose it's remotely plausible for Hokutofuji to remain in place, but I would think if that were possible he wouldn't have been promoted to Komusubi along with Asanoyama when there were 2 other Koumusbi already there.

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6 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

even if you punt the flying monkey all the way up to M2w

By-the-numbers, Tobizaru should be M3w, so M2w is not exactly a stretch.  For the next two spots, they definitely have to stretch.

 

7 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

you either drop Takarafuji really gently 3 ranks for a double digit howler

Onosho should be considered for a severe underdemotion before Takarafuji, with one more win a half rank down.

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7 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Onosho should be considered for a severe underdemotion before Takarafuji, with one more win a half rank down.

Either way, it's still half the drop you would expect; one more rikishi doesn't make much of a difference when you have to fill some 7-8 empty slots.

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27 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

We're going to have another case of a bunch of large overpromotions and underdemotions near the top of the maegashira.  There simply aren't any rikishi to reasonable put in the joi after the top 3 and Tobizaru, and problem continues for the rest of the top half of the maegashira before settling down to more common deviations from the by-the-numbers ranks. 

This also makes it really hard to justify promoting any of the top 3 maegashira to sanyaku on the basis of a more harmonious banzuke in general, as it would only make the problem worse.

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I look forward to people being confused by Kotokuzan facing Kotoshoho in Juryo.

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1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

The addition of extra Komusubi slots when Hokutofuji had a KK at M1e, which led to Asanoyama being dragged up to Komusubi due to having a better claim if extra spots were being made, while generally not creating extra Komusubi spots, emphasizes that KK maegashira absolutely must be promoted.  Just because Meisei belongs above Hokutofuji doesn't mean he will be if it means Hokutofuji doesn't get a promotion. There's nothing against the rules of putting Hokutofuji ahead of Meisei since they don't have the same record; it's just bad banzuke luck for the latter.  But not promoting Hokutofuji would be against the rules.

Now, I haven't read the actual rules that may or many not exist to know if that's actually a set-in-stone rule on the same level of "someone with the same record (or worse) as another should never pass the latter" which is more or less common sense, so I suppose it's remotely plausible for Hokutofuji to remain in place, but I would think if that were possible he wouldn't have been promoted to Komusubi along with Asanoyama when there were 2 other Koumusbi already there.

Two 8-7's stayed in the same position when they cut three sanyaku spots after Kyushu 2019. It would obviously be more harsh to do that with a 9-6 when only one slot disappears, but there's certainly no "must promote" rule.

(1990s upper juryo has some more examples of KK rikishi forced to stay at the same rank, even including J1e.)

Edited by Asashosakari
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5 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Two 8-7's stayed in the same position when they cut three sanyaku spots after Kyushu 2019.

Thanks, I had completely forgotten about that.  Pre-Covid times are like a complete era away now.

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2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

This also makes it really hard to justify promoting any of the top 3 maegashira to sanyaku on the basis of a more harmonious banzuke in general, as it would only make the problem worse.

Which means they will open up a third komusubi slot for Wakatakakage for sure. Over promotions for everyone!

 

I think at the very least we can say Kiribayama and Myogiryu are safe at M4 despite their 7-8 records.

Edited by Rocks

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I'm thinking the joi shakes out like this:

Wakatakakage M1 Hokutofuji

Meisei               M2 Tobizaru

Aoiyama           M3 Hidenoumi

Kiribatama       M4 Myogiru

Chiyonokuni    M5 Hoshoryu

 

Yes,  over promotions for the M3s but what choice do they have? 10 wins outside of the top 3 and up was pretty impressive this basho. 

 

I don't think they put Meisei over Hokutofuji. One of Meisei's wins was a fusen. Not his fault but not enough for the leap frog and holding Hokutofuji in the same rank IMO.

 

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3 hours ago, Gurowake said:

emphasizes that KK maegashira absolutely must be promoted.

You know, I was convinced of this also until this happened to Yutakayama and Terutsuyoshi last year. Granted, different records and part of the banzuke, bu still, it can't be an absolute rule.

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25 minutes ago, Reonito said:
4 hours ago, Gurowake said:

emphasizes that KK maegashira absolutely must be promoted.

You know, I was convinced of this also until this happened to Yutakayama and Terutsuyoshi last year. Granted, different records and part of the banzuke, bu still, it can't be an absolute rule.

So the question is, is the inverse true - that MK maegashira absolutely must be demoted? This banzuke might see a lot of lucky 7-8s held at the same rank just to make things easier, like in Rocks' joi prediction regarding the M4 pair.

Edited by Seiyashi

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21 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

So the question is, is the inverse true - that MK maegashira absolutely must be demoted? This banzuke might see a lot of lucky 7-8s held at the same rank just to make things easier, like in Rocks' joi prediction regarding the M4 pair.

I mean, that happens all the time—Endo and Okinoumi being just the most recent example.

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1 minute ago, Reonito said:
14 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

It's not like that 1930 case is even a thing at all.

Wow, what the heck happened there?

My money would be on that period in the immediate aftermath of the merger between Tokyo and Osaka sumo, where they alternated host cities and used different banzukes in each. The db can only show the next, temporally sequential, banzuke.

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