Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Haru 2021

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7 minutes ago, bessantj said:

If Daishoho wins his last bout and goes 6-1 is he more or less guaranteed to be in Juryo next basho?

Pretty much. Yago is definitely crashing out and Nishikigi might just join him. No one can better Daishoho's rank-record combination at this point.

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2 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Pretty much. Yago is definitely crashing out and Nishikigi might just join him. No one can better Daishoho's rank-record combination at this point.

Bushozan is looking a little precarious as well. 

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Day 13 (results, text-only results)

10-3 Se Terunofuji, K1e Takayasu

9-4 O1w Asanoyama, O2e Takakeisho, M2w Wakatakakage, M12w Aoiyama, M15w Hidenoumi

8-5 M2e Hokutofuji, M3e Meisei, M8w Tobizaru, M9e Chiyonokuni, M9w Hoshoryu, M14w Tsurugisho

So was that bad sumo by Takayasu, or simply better sumo by Wakatakakage? With his hatsu-yusho hopes at stake the komusubi leader just couldn't find a way to put away his more mobile maegashira opponent, and one opening was all it took for Wakatakakage to get deep inside and survive Takayasu's last-ditch kotenage attempt just long enough to not hit the ground first. And around 15 minutes later Takayasu was no longer the sole leader after Terunofuji got the better of the tachiai to defeat ozeki Shodai in seconds. With his 10th win in the bag Terunofuji may have done enough to secure his own return to the second-highest rank, but at least one more shiroboshi will surely bolster his case. He won't be lacking motivation in any case with the yusho now also in reach.

Ozeki Asanoyama did not manage to join the lead as well; an entertaining bout against fellow top-ranker Takakeisho, which saw both try and largely fail to impose their respectively preferred brands of sumo on the match, eventually ended in somewhat messy fashion when Asanoyama seemed to lose his footing a bit and Takakeisho was on the ball to take advantage. Say what you will about the relative lack of superstar power in sumo right now, but not many ozeki of the past would have come out swinging like Takakeisho did today, on the day following their 8th win in a kadoban basho.

Shodai's loss to Terunofuji means that the ozeki isn't quite home yet and will need to defeat either Takakeisho tomorrow or Asanoyama on Sunday to avoid going makekoshi (and becoming kadoban in the process). He's far from the only sanyaku-ranked sumotori to find himself in that predicament for the final weekend - having no less than four of them still on the bubble with two days to go is not super-rare, but it's also not exactly common. Sekiwake Takanosho may be the most surprising name to be in that list, after he looked to be having another good tournament with a score of 6-3. Four losses later he's battling just to stay in sanyaku at all. And today's defeat was definitely not on the agenda. Losing to Asanoyama, Terunofuji and Shodai? Sure. Losing to Myogiryu, himself winless for seven days? Oof.

The two komusubi not named Takayasu were both victorious today, with Mitakeumi beating back the threat of makekoshi against Tamawashi and Daieisho running his career score to 6-0 against Meisei. A somewhat unexpected chance for promotion to sekiwake may be opening up for one of them, should Terunofuji and Takanosho be leaving the rank in opposite directions. (The other slot would be taken by Takayasu, of course.)

Meanwhile, Hokutofuji joined the other two well-performing high maegashira in KK territory with some smart sumo against bigger Ichinojo. He has now pushed Meisei to third in the pecking order, but the frontrunner for promotion to sanyaku remains Wakatakakage thanks to his heroics against Takayasu. Should everything completely fall apart for the sanyaku incumbents, even one of these guys might actually be able to grab the second sekiwake slot.

   2-1-10 Hakuho        Y    Kakuryu     0-0-10-i
     7-6  Shodai        O1   Asanoyama     9-4
     9-4  Takakeisho    O2   ---
    10-3  Terunofuji    S    Takanosho     6-7
    10-3  Takayasu      K1   Mitakeumi     6-7
     ---                K2   Daieisho      7-6

                        M1
     8-5  Hokutofuji    M2   Wakatakakage  9-4
     8-5  Meisei        M3
                        M4
                        M5
                        M6   Ichinojo      7-6  (x)
                        M7
                        M8   Tobizaru      8-5  (x)
(x)  8-5  Chiyonokuni   M9

The top 4 roundrobin continues with Shodai-Takakeisho and Asanoyama-Terunofuji, while Takayasu will go against lowly Tobizaru. The lower sanyaku bubble boys will meet Ichinojo (Takanosho), Myogiryu (Mitakeumi) and Kiribayama (Daieisho), respectively.

__________________________________________________________________

For a rikishi finding creative ways to lose despite generally doing decent sumo, perennially unflappable Akiseyama must be one of the worst possible match-ups. So it was for Yutakayama today, and he is now 4-9 and very likely bound for juryo. (And that bandaged right arm did not look good after the bout...) Resurgent Kotoeko, on the other hand, produced another credible outing against juryo visitor Chiyomaru. His 7-6 record should mean he's good to go for another top division basho in two months. Numerically also safe is Chiyoshoma now after he defeated Ryuden for his first win in six days, but his ranking is quite borderline for 6 wins and there's currently still some mismatch between the likely numbers of rikishi going up and down, so I'm not quite ready to call him good for May. (For the same reason the table below will have Chiyotairyu added back in. He looked easily clear after Day 10 but, three straight defeats since...)

Kotoshoho, who returned to action yesterday and actually appeared genki enough in his win over Terutsuyoshi there, is now absolutely headed to juryo after today's loss against Hidenoumi, as a maximum of 3 wins won't cut it no matter what's happening with anybody else. Poor Midorifuji looks kyujo in all but fact, and although he'd be safe with just one more win, it might not be coming over the weekend giving the state he's in. Lastly, both bottom-ranked M16's Kaisei and Daiamami were successful today and they only require one win apiece for an outright kachikoshi.

Bad news day over in juryo where all five promotion candidates found themselves on the losing side of the torikumi. That was probably it for Chiyonoo, but the others can still work their way in. Formerly 6-0 Enho has gone 2-5 since then and should really win twice over the weekend for a properly promotable record since available banzuke luck would probably be directed towards the makuuchi incumbents.

(1)  4-9  Midorifuji    M10
(Ø)  5-8  Chiyotairyu   M11  Kotoshoho    1-4-8 (x)
                        M12
                        M13  Chiyoshoma    6-7  (Ø)

(o)  7-6  Kotoeko       M14
(~)  4-9  Yutakayama    M15
(1)  7-6  Kaisei        M16  Daiamami      7-6  (1)

                        J1   Akua          7-6  (1)
(1)  8-5  Ishiura       J2
(o)  9-4  Chiyomaru     J3   Chiyonoo      6-7  (~)
(2)  8-5  Enho          J4
                        J5
                        J6
(~) 8-4-1 Ura           J7   Azumaryu      8-5  (~)
                        J8
                        J9   Hakuyozan     9-4  (~)

With Chiyonokuni having departed the basho today there's now no need for juryo rikishi in the top division schedule, and consequently none have been scheduled to visit tomorrow. Given the overall situation here there's probably a good chance we'll see two getting included for senshuraku, though.

(Edit: I forgot that I had introduced Ø as the notation of choice for zero-win targets last basho. Changed now.)

__________________________________________________________________

He showed some forward-moving sumo again for once, but opponent Tokushoryu didn't have too much trouble turning the tables on Yago with his trademark thrustdown, so it's straight defeat #10 for the embattled Oguruma man. Two wins plus lots of losses for others might still save him, but it's hard to see enough of that happening, so it's probably makushita time for Yago again. He's still just 26 years old, but I'm starting to be doubtful that the former maegashira is ever going to get back to consistent sekitori strength.

Six other low juryo rikishi entered the day requiring more wins, and half of them proceeded to get them. Ichiyamamoto is fully kachikoshi now, his sixth in a row since he had to sit out most of Kyushu 2019 and all of Hatsu 2020, and fell to low makushita. Chiyonoumi and Tohakuryu achieved the first 50% of what they need to do to stay in juryo. Tohakuryu has turned things around from 7 straight defeats to 4 consecutive victories, and in the form he has shown in recent days he actually looks like a good bet to get that last win now, too. His latest victim was Nishikigi, who himself stands on the bubble now, unable to afford any further loss. The same is true for Bushozan and Nishikifuji, defeated by ailing Ura and makushita visitor Oho.

Oho achieved his last-minute kachikoshi with that and he is nearly certain to have earned a second crack in juryo now. It's not 100% guaranteed yet since only two slots are open so far and he could still get pushed to third in the queue. Definitely returning to juryo is Daishoho, however, who didn't have to do anything today besides watch Tokisakae get dismantled by Abi in the makushita yusho decider, which eliminated Daishoho's sole competition for the #1 promotion slot. (Of course, even that was no longer all that relevant after the subsequent Yago loss opened up slot #2 as well.)

                        J10  Yago          3-10 (~)
(1)  5-8  Tohakuryu     J11
(1)  6-7  Chiyonoumi    J12  Nishikifuji   5-8  (2)
                        J13  Nishikigi     5-8  (2)
(2)  6-7  Bushozan      J14  Ichiyamamoto  8-5  (o)

                        Ms1
     4-3  Oho           Ms2  Daishoho      5-1  (o)
     4-2  Kotokuzan     Ms3
     4-3  Tochimaru     Ms4
                        Ms5
     4-3  Roga          Ms6  Murata        3-3
                        Ms7  Kaisho        5-2
                        ...
                        Ms12 Hiradoumi     5-2  (x)
                        ...
(x)  6-1  Tokisakae     Ms15

I'm still not sure if there's going to be any need to seek out promotees from below Ms5, but Roga and Kaisho tossed their virtual hats in the ring today with victories. Everybody else is presumably out of the running, Hiradoumi and Tokisakae by virtue of their low ranks and today's losses, and Murata as certain to finish behind Roga and almost definitely also behind Kaisho, even if he goes KK tomorrow.

At any rate, thanks to the Chiyonokuni withdrawal in makuuchi they don't need any fill-in for the juryo schedule now, either, so the remaining appearances by Daishoho and Kotokuzan will now both come on senshuraku (rather than one each on Days 14 and 15). Should there be any further kyujo in the sekitori ranks tomorrow - and we've got plenty of possibles between Midorifuji, Yutakayama, Ura and maybe more I'm forgetting - some makekoshi makushita rikishi will have to be called up for an 8th bout. Of course, maybe we'll get two kyujo, then the schedule would also work as-is...

__________________________________________________________________
 

Juryo yusho race through Day 13:

9-4 J3e Chiyomaru, J9w Hakuyozan, J10e Takagenji

8-5 J2e Ishiura, J4e Enho, J7e Ura (8-4-1), J7w Azumaryu, J13e Jokoryu, J14w Ichiyamamoto

7-6 J1w Akua, J8e Kyokutaisei, J8w Shohozan, J11w Takakento

There's my juryo race full of low-ranked rikishi, I suppose. Chiyomaru's fairly decisive loss up in makuuchi allowed the winners of the two 8-4 pairings to (re-)join the lead, and it wasn't the favoured Miyagino duo who did it. Two losses on the trot for both Ishiura and Enho.

Up for Day 13:

J3e  Chiyomaru (9-4)    -  J10e Takagenji (9-4)

J12e Chiyonoumi (6-7)   -  J9w  Hakuyozan (9-4)

J4e  Enho (8-5)         -  J13e Jokoryu (8-5)
J2e  Ishiura (8-5)      -  J7w  Azumaryu (8-5)

J8e  Kyokutaisei (7-6)  -  J14w Ichiyamamoto (8-5)
J7e  Ura (8-4-1)        -  J11w Takakento (7-6)

Sorry folks, no 9-6 yusho. 10-5 is now quite possible though... As Hakuyozan is guaranteed to still be in the race on senshuraku, I suppose he and Chiyomaru will be meeting there.

Edited by Asashosakari
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1 minute ago, Reonito said:

Day 13, sir.

(Laughing...) Something always slips through. Fixed.

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These posts are tremendous. Some of my favorite things to read not just about sumo, but in general.

Question, is 11-4 (Wakatakakage) or 10-5 (WTK or Hokutofuji) enough to "force" another komusubi slot for an M2 regardless of what happens with current sanyaku? Or even at those records it is entirely dependent on what happens around them?

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15 minutes ago, Sven H. said:

These posts are tremendous. Some of my favorite things to read not just about sumo, but in general.

Question, is 11-4 (Wakatakakage) or 10-5 (WTK or Hokutofuji) enough to "force" another komusubi slot for an M2 regardless of what happens with current sanyaku? Or even at those records it is entirely dependent on what happens around them?

Based on Daieiesho's fate after November, 10-5 pretty clearly won't do it these days. No idea if 11-4 would, but guessing no?

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46 minutes ago, Sven H. said:

These posts are tremendous. Some of my favorite things to read not just about sumo, but in general.

Question, is 11-4 (Wakatakakage) or 10-5 (WTK or Hokutofuji) enough to "force" another komusubi slot for an M2 regardless of what happens with current sanyaku? Or even at those records it is entirely dependent on what happens around them?

If a 13-2 M1 isn't good enough for an uneeded Sekiwake, how can you justify giving an unneeded Komusubi promotion to an 11-4 M2?  I can see maybe 12-3 M2 doing it, but I don't see 11-4.  But we don't have anything to rely on in this area; it's pretty much untrodden ground with the current banzuke makers.

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17 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

I don't think we'll ever see a promotion to ozeki with less than double digits in the promotion basho, regardless of how that record came about. That 10th win makes such a huge difference in terms of appearance.

Back before the current guidelines for the ozeki rank were formalized in 1969, they were happy to promote guys with runs that were just ridiculously weak by current standards (28 wins, only one double-digit record in three, etc.), but even back then they didn't pull the trigger on any 9-6'er even when their case for promotion was otherwise much better than some of the aforementioned.

It's interesting to see how in the first list, half of them managed to get a record that would have clearly gotten them promoted if they hadn't already been, while in the second group none of them did, or were even close.

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6 hours ago, Gurowake said:
6 hours ago, Sven H. said:

These posts are tremendous. Some of my favorite things to read not just about sumo, but in general.

Question, is 11-4 (Wakatakakage) or 10-5 (WTK or Hokutofuji) enough to "force" another komusubi slot for an M2 regardless of what happens with current sanyaku? Or even at those records it is entirely dependent on what happens around them?

If a 13-2 M1 isn't good enough for an uneeded Sekiwake, how can you justify giving an unneeded Komusubi promotion to an 11-4 M2?  I can see maybe 12-3 M2 doing it, but I don't see 11-4.  But we don't have anything to rely on in this area; it's pretty much untrodden ground with the current banzuke makers.

The more dated counterexample of course would be Kyushu 2019, where Hokutofuji and Asanoyama had been exceedingly consistent the couple of basho before to force two extra komusubi slots, next to the incumbents Abi and Endo who were scraping minimal KKs. But Hokutofuji was 9-6 at M1 (and 7-8 at K the basho before that) and Asanoyama was 10-5 at M2; Asanoyama was probably the beneficiary of some banzuke symmetry used in favour of Hokutofuji. 

All that said and done, after their shafting of Daieisho last basho, I do agree Hokutofuji and Wakatakakage are more likely to be stuck at M1 at best if all the sanyaku retain their spots.

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12 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

The more dated counterexample of course would be Kyushu 2019, where Hokutofuji and Asanoyama had been exceedingly consistent the couple of basho before to force two extra komusubi slots, next to the incumbents Abi and Endo who were scraping minimal KKs. But Hokutofuji was 9-6 at M1 (and 7-8 at K the basho before that) and Asanoyama was 10-5 at M2; Asanoyama was probably the beneficiary of some banzuke symmetry used in favour of Hokutofuji. 

The key point about this example is that Hokutofuji was M1e and so had to be promoted. Asanoyama had a better numerical promotion case than Hokutofuji, so he came along for the ride.

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Belated...

Lower division yusho races (Day 13 results):

6-1 Ms15e Tokisakae (Tokitsukaze)
7-0 Ms56w Abi (Shikoroyama)

7-0 Sd45w Komanokuni (Shibatayama)
6-1 Sd68w Osuzuki (Naruto)
6-1 Sd100Td Nishikawa (Sakaigawa)

7-0 Jd48w Atamifuji (Isegahama)
6-1 Jd79w Chiyoyamato (Kokonoe)

7-0 Jk21w Murayama (Naruto)

One of the more disappointing Day 13's in recent memory. Uncompetitive matches with the jonokuchi yusho on the line are a pretty common sight, so Murayama easily disposing of his 5-1 opponent didn't come unexpected, but this time it set the tone for what followed: an even more easy win for Atamifuji in jonidan, a first sandanme match that was done in a second and got turned over on a hansoku call to boot, a sloppy-looking (but at least marginally engaging) sandanme yusho decider, and an outright disappointing showing by Tokisakae in makushita to cap things off.

If nothing else, the makushita result just might lead to an immediate rematch next basho as Tokisakae and Abi should both be ranked fairly close to each other. Due to the three-rikishi Covid blockage at Ms4/5 it's hard to say if they'll actually get into the top 5 ranks, however; for a 7-0 record from Abi's location it wouldn't be very unusual to end up lower, but a 6-1 achieved by a top 15-ranked rikishi hasn't failed to earn a spot in the short promotion zone for 27 years.

Sandanme winner Komanokuni should be landing close to his former career-best position of Sd23, but I suspect that he'll be back in sandanme before too long. Defeated challengers Osuzuki and Nishikawa will remain in the division for now, and it wouldn't be too surprising if either or both end up with a bit of another zensho run in May, though perhaps not all the way to 6-0 again.

I'm probably more interested in what sandanme has in store for Atamifuji, though. The middle of the division is calling for him, and in fact he should end up fairly close to Nishikawa (maybe 10 ranks away) so perhaps we'll be seeing that matchup at some point next time. Physically there's no doubt that Atamifuji is makushita-worthy already even having just graduated from high school, but it remains to be seen if his technique is also up to scratch against more challenging opposition. That being said, I doubt he'll have to spend more than one or two tournaments in sandanme.

Murakawa will be moving up to high jonidan. In all likelihood it's going to be his only jonidan appearance, but I'd be somewhat surprised if he's going to challenge for the division title there as well.

Edited by Asashosakari
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Obviously there's not tons of data on how far 7-0s go up from the very bottom of makushita, but my guess from what there is available is that Abi is likely to end up around ms6-7.  Tokisakae should be a few ranks ahead of that, ms3-4, though the covid crunch might cause things to go awry, and I'm not looking at the current density of rikishi that will end up there, just what the historical data is.

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Happy for Komanokuni, and for a rare yusho for Shibatayama-beya after 22 years of existence - the first, in fact, by a Japanese rikishi.

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19 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Tokisakae should be a few ranks ahead of that, ms3-4, though the covid crunch might cause things to go awry, and I'm not looking at the current density of rikishi that will end up there, just what the historical data is.

Ms4e I'd guess, the last available slot. The two kyujo Ms1's will be dropping out, as will Shohoryu. At least 3 will be promoted to juryo, replaced by at least 2 demotees. 3 more slots will be occupied will be some combo of KK upper makushita or juryo demotions. That's 5 of the available 7, assuming the c-kyujo guys stay put. Last two should go to whichever of Murata/Kaisho is lower in the pecking order, and Tokisakae.

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Day 14 (results, text-only results)

11-3 Se Terunofuji

10-4 O2e Takakeisho, K1e Takayasu, M12w Aoiyama

9-5 O1w Asanoyama, M2e Hokutofuji, M2w Wakatakakage, M3e Meisei, M8w Tobizaru, M14w Tsurugisho, M15w Hidenoumi

A second gut-wrenching loss at the tawara has served to drop Takayasu from the lead after eight days atop the arasoi. Even more in control of the match than he was against Wakatakakage the day before, Takayasu inexplicably decided to try to rush to a finish against Tobizaru and promptly got flung down by the closest of margins again. Your new sole leader is Terunofuji who virtually assured himself of a return to ozeki with another strong showing against a rank incumbent for his 11th win. It was arguably Asanoyama's best attempt against him in their fifth meeting, but no cigar once again.

Asanoyama fell out of the race for good with that loss, but another ozeki is flying the flag for the top rankers: Takakeisho clearly came to play again, which was bad news for Shodai who didn't stand a chance against his ozeki colleague. Takakeisho is 10-4 and can still win the yusho under his own power. Shodai, now 7-7, is under pressure of his own tomorrow as he works to avoid going kadoban at the last minute.

On that note, now we really are in super-rare territory with 4 sanyaku rikishi entering the final day with 7-7 records (tied for most ever with 3 other basho), three of them among the S/K (8th time ever including one case with four). Daieisho joined Shodai in dropping to 7-7 against Kiribayama, while Takanosho and Mitakeumi got there the other way with victories - both made short work of their opponents Ichinojo and Myogiryu (now unfortunately MK after his 5-0 start).

The four sanyaku 7-7's in Hatsu 2013 all proceeded to finish kachikoshi; we'll see how many get there tomorrow. Takanosho is at least certain to remain in the lower titled ranks after today's shiroboshi. He'll either stay at sekiwake and be joined there by Takayasu, or his spot at the third-highest rank will be up for grabs for the two 7-7 komusubi as well as the basho's three high-performing maegashira. That trio is now 9-5 all around after Wakatakakage's winning streak was snapped at 7 days by Aoiyama, while Hokutofuji and Meisei were successful against Ryuden and Tamawashi.

   2-1-11 Hakuho        Y    Kakuryu     0-0-10-i
     7-7  Shodai        O1   Asanoyama     9-5
    10-4  Takakeisho    O2   ---
    11-3  Terunofuji    S    Takanosho     7-7
    10-4  Takayasu      K1   Mitakeumi     7-7
     ---                K2   Daieisho      7-7

                        M1
     9-5  Hokutofuji    M2   Wakatakakage  9-5
     9-5  Meisei        M3
                        ...
                        M12  Aoiyama      10-4

Today's win has not only made Aoiyama the thus far sole maegashira to be in double-digit win territory, he's also - somewhat - still in the running for the yusho. He and Takayasu will battle things out for an 11th win, which will send the victor into a three-way playoff for the yusho if Takakeisho can reel in leader Terunofuji. These two met with the roles reversed just four months ago, albeit at two wins higher than they stand this time around. Should Terunofuji prevail, he will become the first rikishi in history to win 3 makuuchi yusho while being ranked below ozeki.

The actual last regulation bout of the tournament will be Asanoyama-Shodai, which is likely to see the audience deflated a bit no matter what happens in the yusho-relevant match just before. In any case, that's Shodai's path to kachikoshi. For the lower sanyaku it entails defeating Tochinoshin (Takanosho), Ichinojo (Mitakeumi) and Akiseyama (Daieisho). All three maegashira are also 7-7 for maximum heartbreak potential. Incidentally, Akiseyama is the lowest-ranked 7-7 maegashira who has ever had to go for his senshuraku kachikoshi against a sanyaku opponent.

Should space in sanyaku open up - up to two spots are possible - it'll be up to the maegashira trio to claim them. The schedule is set up nicely to decide at least the first claim, as the M2's Hokutofuji and Wakatakakage are meeting head-to-head. The loser of that match will either cede claim #2 to Meisei, or luck into retaining it should Meisei be defeated by his aite Tsurugisho (who's also 9-5). I suppose it's in the realm of possibility that at least the winner of the M2 clash will be promoted no matter what, even into an additional komusubi slot, but it's not something to bet on with the current banzuke committee.

__________________________________________________________________

The race for the last handful of maegashira slots progressed towards a largely satisfying conclusion today, at least numbers-wise. Ishiura and Akua were victorious in juryo and have now clinched promotable records, joining previously qualified Chiyomaru, which means just enough candidates to take up the spots already vacated by Kotoshoho, Yutakayama - withdrawn altogether due to his injured arm today - and retired yokozuna Kakuryu.

The last contender standing, Enho, lost for the third day in a row and can only go up with luck now. That was good news for Kokonoe duo Chiyoshoma and Chiyotairyu who definitely no longer had to fear the spectre of an overdemotion - Chiyoshoma made doubly sure of it anyway by defeating Kotoshoho, while Chiyotairyu picked up straight loss #4 against Kaisei. The Brazilian bottom-ranker collected his late kachikoshi with that, as did the other M16 Daiamami against Hoshoryu. It's Kaisei's first makuuchi KK in exactly a year, although that of course means just four basho in this case since May got cancelled and January saw his heya sidelined due to Covid-19. Daiamami was last KK five top division appearances ago, but in his case that means Haru 2018.

We're not quite done here yet as even all-out attack wasn't enough to get Midorifuji his last needed win against Tsurugisho, so he will enter senshuraku potentially in line for demotion with another loss.

(1)  4-10 Midorifuji    M10
(o)  5-9  Chiyotairyu   M11  Kotoshoho    1-5-8 (x)
                        M12
                        M13  Chiyoshoma    7-7  (o)
                        M14
(x)  4-10 Yutakayama    M15
(o)  8-6  Kaisei        M16  Daiamami      8-6  (o)

                        J1   Akua          8-6  (o)
(o)  9-5  Ishiura       J2
(o)  9-5  Chiyomaru     J3   Chiyonoo      7-7  (~)
(~)  8-6  Enho          J4
                        J5
                        J6
(~) 9-4-1 Ura           J7   Azumaryu      8-6  (x)
                        J8
                        J9   Hakuyozan    10-4  (~)

I'm not sure which of the four (~) rikishi in juryo are actually in a strong enough position to force down a 4-11 Midorifuji; Enho is placed best, but given the current committee's rather extreme tendency to prioritize make over kachi, perhaps even a 9-6 by him won't do it, let alone any result by the other three. Should all four juryo candidates lose, then Midorifuji will certainly stay. Of course, he can make all that irrelevant by defeating Okinoumi (M5w 3-11).

__________________________________________________________________

Three low juryo rikishi entered Day 14 with their ranks on the line, and only two got the needed win to ensure they have a chance to become safe for good on senshuraku: Nishikifuji and Nishikigi improved their records to 6-8 at the expense of underperforming mid-rankers Chiyootori and Churanoumi. Sekitori rookie Bushozan wasn't able to come through and fell to 6-8 and makekoshi himself against Chiyonoo. Given his position at the bottom of the division he is now demotable, although some probability remains that he could stick around with 7 wins.

Also 6-8 with a loss is Chiyonoumi who was defeated by yusho-seeking Hakuyozan, and he too will now have to enter the final day with his rank not yet secured. And yet another 6-8 but one of the winning variety was collected by Tohakuryu - he succeeded against Kyokushuho for his fifth straight win. His demotion had looked done and dusted at 1-8 prior to that streak, but he is actually safe now, incredibly enough.

Lastly, down in makushita the last claimant for a possible super-lucky promotion came through; Murata finishes the basho 4-3 having won his KK/MK decider against Tamashoho.

                        J10  Yago          3-11 (x)
(o)  6-8  Tohakuryu     J11
(1)  6-8  Chiyonoumi    J12  Nishikifuji   6-8  (1)
                        J13  Nishikigi     6-8  (1)
(~)  6-8  Bushozan      J14

                        Ms1
(o)  4-3  Oho           Ms2  Daishoho      5-1  (o)
(o)  4-2  Kotokuzan     Ms3
     4-3  Tochimaru     Ms4
                        Ms5
     4-3  Roga          Ms6  Murata        4-3
                        Ms7  Kaisho        5-2

As things stand we know that three slots are available via Kakuryu, Yago and either Bushozan or somebody else that finishes worse than him, so Oho and debutant-to-be Kotokuzan have now joined Daishoho as certain promotees. I'm guessing that Tochimaru will also go up if any fourth slot becomes available, even if it's the most borderline demotion possibility (i.e. Chiyonoumi). The case for the trio ranked outside the top 5 is rather more iffy, and I wouldn't be surprised if Chiyonoumi and Nishikifuji are actually ahead of them and would get to stay even with a 6-9 finish, which would mean that Roga et al. are already out of the running and we'll get at most four exchanges.

So, quite possibly the race is now just about who has to make room for promotions #3 and potentially #4. That could still be any combination of Bushozan and the three bubble rikishi, and their fates will be decided by the following matchups: Nishikifuji - Kotokuzan, Chiyonoumi - Daishoho, Nishikigi - Chiyootori (J6w 4-10), and Bushozan - Kyokushuho (J5w 6-8).

In addition to Kotokuzan and Daishoho a third makushita visitor was made necessary due to Yutakayama's Day 14 withdrawal, with Ryusei (Ms7e 1-5-1) now facing Yago and his 11-day losing streak. It's the first time since Kyushu 1998 that this additional bout is going to a makushita rikishi who has previously missed a round of the regular 7-bout schedule, which I think means that they will just treat this as a regular appearance for Ryusei and he'll be held responsible for a loss rankings-wise, unlike "normal" 8th-match rikishi, but will also get full credit for a win (as opposed to the usual one-half thing that they do).

__________________________________________________________________
 

Juryo yusho race through Day 14:

10-4 J9w Hakuyozan, J10e Takagenji

9-5 J2e Ishiura, J3e Chiyomaru, J7e Ura (9-4-1), J13e Jokoryu, J14w Ichiyamamoto

8-6 J1w Akua, J4e Enho, J7w Azumaryu

Two of the three co-leaders were paired up and the better end of it was had by Takagenji for his fifth straight winning day, sending Chiyomaru out of the lead group. Hakuyozan went up against now-makekoshi Chiyonoumi and also secured his 10th shiroboshi, so we're entering the final day with two rikishi atop the standings.

However, Hakuyozan and Takagenji already met on Day 1 (Hakuyozan won), so they cannot be matched up for a straight yusho decider. That of course means that 9-5 is still a viable score for now. 4 members of yesterday's 8-5 sixpack were also paired for action, and these matches had Ishiura and Jokoryu prevailing over Azumaryu and Enho. The remaining two, Ura and Ichiyamamoto, also managed to retain spots in the race by defeating Takakento and Kyokutaisei, so we have ended up with the maximum possible number of 7 yusho contenders.

At most 6 of them can enter a potential playoff, courtesy of these senshuraku pairings:

J7e  Ura (9-4-1)      -  J10e Takagenji (10-4)
J3e  Chiyomaru (9-5)  -  J9w  Hakuyozan (10-4)

J2e  Ishiura (9-5)    -  J14w Ichiyamamoto (9-5)

J13e Jokoryu (9-5)    -  J1w  Akua (8-6)

Chiyomaru is actually Hakuyozan's only possible opponent among the five pursuers, while Takagenji still had both Ura and Ishiura available. I'm a bit surprised that they didn't match Takagenji with the higher-ranked option, Ishiura.

Edited by Asashosakari
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12 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

In addition to Kotokuzan and Daishoho a third makushita visitor was made necessary due to Yutakayama's Day 14 withdrawal, with Ryusei (Ms7e 1-5-1) now facing Yago and his 11-day losing streak. It's the first time since Kyushu 1998 that this additional bout is going to a makushita rikishi who has previously missed a round of the regular 7-bout schedule, which I think means that they will just treat this as a regular appearance for Ryusei and he'll be held responsible for a loss rankings-wise, unlike "normal" 8th-match rikishi, but will also get full credit for a win (as opposed to the usual one-half thing that they do).

What it really means, if they do that, is that they ignore the fact that he was absent for one round entirely, which basically means getting the "8th" match erases what was effectively a loss from his record.  So in that sense, a loss "doesn't count" because it's just replacing a "loss" that was removed, while a win counts more than it usually does.

Edited by Gurowake

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8 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

What it really means, if they do that, is that they ignore the fact that he was absent for one round entirely, which basically means getting the "8th" match erases what was effectively a loss from his record.  So in that sense, a loss "doesn't count" because it's just replacing a "loss" that was removed, while a win counts more than it usually does.

Well yes, obviously I meant to indicate that the specific loss in the additional match would be treated differently from the usual.

Edited by Asashosakari

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2 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Well yes, obviously I meant to indicate that the specific loss in the additional match would be treated differently from the usual.

How so?  If he loses, he'll be moved as if he's 1-6, regardless of whether it's treated as a 7th or 8th match.  Only if he wins does it matter how they treat it.

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4 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

How so?  If he loses, he'll be moved as if he's 1-6, regardless of whether it's treated as a 7th or 8th match.  Only if he wins does it matter how they treat it.

The point is that, if they stick to how they normally do it, his official record would actually be 1-6, not 1-6-1, and so he wouldn't merely be treated "as if" he's 1-6.

That aside, the half-credit thing for a win wasn't always how they did it, either; it used to count as a full win.

Edited by Asashosakari

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2 hours ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

All I'm gonna say is the last time a 9 win M2 ranked rikishi got stuck in M2 for the next basho was 1930.

And the last time a 13 win M1 ranked rikishi was only a Komusubi next basho, before Daieisho, was never. so you never know for sure.

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Ah it's the weird post-merger period when there were separate banzuke for the same rikishi in Osaka and Tokyo

58 minutes ago, sahaven111 said:

And the last time a 13 win M1 ranked rikishi was only a Komusubi next basho, before Daieisho, was never. so you never know for sure.

For an organization that loves its precedents, the kyokai sure sets a lot of precedents. 

Edited by Kamitsuumi

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All 3 Juryo bubble rikishi won.  Tough luck for Tochimaru.

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