March basho 2021

[Seiyashi 4,071]

53 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Key point right there. Most of the chasers won't get the privilege of facing him themselves. They're relying on him slipping up. He still has a couple of strong opponents in Shodai (tomorrow) and Takanosho, and presumably the M2s Hokutofuji and Wakatakakage will meet him, but he has no reason to fear any of them in his present form.

36 minutes ago, SumoKitten said:

While Shodai did win today, I don't think he will prove to be strong opposition for Takayasu tomorrow. Takayasu and Shodai seem to be on opposite ends of the confidence spectrum at the moment. Takayasu is operating on a different level this tournament and the only reason why still a lot of people doubt him is because he hasn't won a tournament yet. He gives me the same vibe that I got from Daieisho last tournament (also another win for him, yay!).

With Takakeisho done and Endo withdrawn, that leaves him with Myogiryu, Takanosho, Hokutofuji, Wakatakakage and Shodai. I think we all agree Takayasu is more than Shodai can handle right now (we'll find out tomorrow), so it's really up to the remaining 4 to hand Takayasu two losses to bring Terunofuji and Asanoyama (and possibly Chiyonokuni) back into contention. Hokutofuji might do it but the other three don't look in top form to do so.

Daieisho seems to have found some of his form back. 10-5 is not normally enough to force a third Sekiwake slot (assuming Terunofuji is promoted and Takayasu fills that slot), but somehow not promoting a 10-5 as a defending champion at komusubi seems really harsh. Mitakeumi on the other hand is on a bit of a slide; he might just MK yet and hand Hokutofuji the komusubi slot on a platter.

12 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

Like most people, I am hoping for a Terunofuji re-promotion to Ozeki.  But if Takayasu registers double-digit wins (not to mention snagging the yusho), it could ostensibly put him on an Ozeki run (his January 9-6 record notwithstanding), with a shot at Ozeki re-promotion in May.  It'll be all about the numbers, of course.

He would need at least another junyusho in May for that, and ideally at least a yusho-doten. The only two ozeki to have been promoted where the first basho of their run was a 9-6 at komusubi were Dejima and Hakuho; Dejima went 11-4 and 13-2 Y to be promoted, and Hakuho went back to back 13-2 J 13-2 D to be promoted. It's notable that both these precedents went on a crescendo; I'm not sure if a 9-6 14-1 Y 11-4 is sufficiently credible to be promoted, and Takayasu might actually set the bar too high for himself if he wins out here.

The good news for Takayasu is, with Hakuho declaring himself out in May and Kakuryu either not competing or retired, the only men in his way are the 4 ozeki - and one, if not two of them are almost certainly gimmes. He may just make it a 5-ozeki banzuke for the first time in a very long while. If Daieisho also wins out here and goes double digits in May and July, we might actually see 6 ozeki by then.

Edited March 23, 2021 by Seiyashi

[SumoKitten 22]

26 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

The good news for Takayasu is, with Hakuho declaring himself out in May and Kakuryu either not competing or retired, the only men in his way are the 4 ozeki - and one, if not two of them are almost certainly gimmes. He may just make it a 5-ozeki banzuke for the first time in a very long while. If Daieisho also wins out here and goes double digits in May and July, we might actually see 6 ozeki by then.

I doubt the 5 or even 6 ozeki bansuke will happen... Not because I can't see Takayasu and Daieisho (re)claiming the rank, but because I feel confident in two of the current ozeki to be demoted by then. Shodai being my front runner for the demotion. 

Edited March 23, 2021 by SumoKitten
A little typo

[WAKATAKE 2,631]

50 minutes ago, Apayasu said:

During Terunofuji's bout I had the feeling that he is inpatient, seemed like he gave up some form and security for a quick win.

That wasn’t impatience, that was playing with his food. 

[SumoKitten 22]

1 minute ago, WAKATAKE said:

That wasn’t impatience, that was playing with his food. 

Only that in this case, the food ended up eating the one who had the plate set. 

I think the impatience stems from him having to finish bouts as quickly as possible. His style relies very much on his superior strength, however, this is a more taxing style on the stamina than other, more technical approaches that do not rely the rikishi on hoisting his opponent out of the ring. And the fewer seconds he spends in the ring with his banged up knees the better. 

But I am not unhappy about this result. It gives Takayasu a bit of a cushion. Pretty sure though that Terunofuji will still make the necessary numbers. 

 

[Jakusotsu 5,815]

The Terunofuji of old (i.e. pre-Ozeki) was prone to endure long bouts and running out of steam in the end. Perhaps that's why he tries to rush things.

[Kujo 116]

4 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

Akiseyama ... well well. I know Tochinoshin isn’t the most formidable opponent these days, but that was a fine fightback.

Akiseyama is on a roll (a jelly roll) 

Definitely some big-man sumo there though.

[RabidJohn 1,665]

I was greatly entertained by Akiseyama playing Tochinoshin at his own belt game and winning. 
Btw, is Akiseyama lying about his age? His skin appears to be about 70 and I'm suspicious of how low to his brow that hairline is...

I was greatly impressed by Wakatakakage's strength, and not for the first time this basho. He doesn't act small, which I like.

Then came Shimanoumi, who I thought would be a gimme for Terunofuji. I was greatly delighted to be wrong! Shimanoumi's awareness and use of the tawara was inspired - he just wore Terunofuji out. 

The treats weren't over, though. Takayasu's handling of Takakeisho was great. He kept the pressure on throughout the extended head and shoulder brace, actually moving the ozeki back by nearly a foot to the tawara. He waited for the knackered ozeki to make his move and latched on to the belt. It was over then, but there was the slightest pause (which suggested to me Takayasu was considering how best to finish it) before he sent the ozeki tumbling with uwatenage. 
Takayasu is looking as good as he ever has. Calm, patient and confident. I'd be very happy to see him win the yusho.

[Gernobono 455]

13 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

Btw, is Akiseyama lying about his age? His skin appears to be about 70

to quote my wife: "he is still growing into it"

[Morty 1,480]

4 hours ago, Houmanumi said:

Shimanoumi showing the blueprint there. Great lateral movement at the edge.

Yep, that was no fluke. He stayed low, kept him off the belt and kept moving sideways. He had a tactic to stop Terunofuji using his brute strength and it worked. Really impressive sumo there.

[kumoryu 88]

3 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

 

But if Takayasu registers double-digit wins (not to mention snagging the yusho), it could ostensibly put him on an Ozeki run (his January 9-6 record notwithstanding), with a shot at Ozeki re-promotion in May.  It'll be all about the numbers, of course.

 

Surely there would be no suggestion of an ozeki promotion after just one tournament at sekiwake? At best, they might take a strong showing here into account and, if he can follow it with two good basho at sekiwake, give him a nod after the July basho. But even then, I believe they have a history of setting tougher standards for a returning ozeki -- wasn't Miyabiyama denied where others might have been promoted? Much as I love Takayasu, I don't think there's any way it's possible in May.

 

[Kujo 116]

1 hour ago, Gernobono said:

to quote my wife: "he is still growing into it"

Still growing into it 

Does he want to be yamamotoyama when he grows up?   

[Rocks 1,807]

10 minutes ago, kumoryu said:

Surely there would be no suggestion of an ozeki promotion after just one tournament at sekiwake? At best, they might take a strong showing here into account and, if he can follow it with two good basho at sekiwake, give him a nod after the July basho. But even then, I believe they have a history of setting tougher standards for a returning ozeki -- wasn't Miyabiyama denied where others might have been promoted? Much as I love Takayasu, I don't think there's any way it's possible in May.

 

Why not? Unless he changes course drastically Takaysu is on track for at least a 13 win yusho. If he stays strong and gets 14 beating the field by 2 wins it's even more impressive.  But even at 13 that gives him 22 wins over the past basho. If he gets at least 11 in May along with being in the yusho race well into the second week I think they will promote him. I don't think they care how many Ozeki there are at this point. As someone mentioned there will be a lot of volatility in the Ozeki ranks this year. With movement up and down. Even if we got to 5 or 6 Ozeki there won't be that many at the end of the year. And we are losing both Yokozuna this year too.

Given the lack of consistency in the guys who are Ozeki we may just be looking at a long stretch of no Yokozuna and lots of Ozeki. 

[Seiyashi 4,071]

2 minutes ago, Rocks said:

21 minutes ago, kumoryu said:

Surely there would be no suggestion of an ozeki promotion after just one tournament at sekiwake? At best, they might take a strong showing here into account and, if he can follow it with two good basho at sekiwake, give him a nod after the July basho. But even then, I believe they have a history of setting tougher standards for a returning ozeki -- wasn't Miyabiyama denied where others might have been promoted? Much as I love Takayasu, I don't think there's any way it's possible in May.

 

Why not? Unless he changes course drastically Takaysu is on track for at least a 13 win yusho. If he stays strong and gets 14 beating the field by 2 wins it's even more impressive.  But even at 13 that gives him 22 wins over the past basho. If he gets at least 11 in May along with being in the yusho race well into the second week I think they will promote him. I don't think they care how many Ozeki there are at this point. As someone mentioned there will be a lot of volatility in the Ozeki ranks this year. With movement up and down. Even if we got to 5 or 6 Ozeki there won't be that many at the end of the year. And we are losing both Yokozuna this year too.

Given the lack of consistency in the guys who are Ozeki we may just be looking at a long stretch of no Yokozuna and lots of Ozeki. 

Can I shill my earlier analysis? 

3 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

3 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

Like most people, I am hoping for a Terunofuji re-promotion to Ozeki.  But if Takayasu registers double-digit wins (not to mention snagging the yusho), it could ostensibly put him on an Ozeki run (his January 9-6 record notwithstanding), with a shot at Ozeki re-promotion in May.  It'll be all about the numbers, of course.

He would need at least another junyusho in May for that, and ideally at least a yusho-doten. The only two ozeki to have been promoted where the first basho of their run was a 9-6 at komusubi were Dejima and Hakuho; Dejima went 11-4 and 13-2 Y to be promoted, and Hakuho went back to back 13-2 J 13-2 D to be promoted. It's notable that both these precedents went on a crescendo; I'm not sure if a 9-6 14-1 Y 11-4 is sufficiently credible to be promoted, and Takayasu might actually set the bar too high for himself if he wins out here.

The good news for Takayasu is, with Hakuho declaring himself out in May and Kakuryu either not competing or retired, the only men in his way are the 4 ozeki - and one, if not two of them are almost certainly gimmes. He may just make it a 5-ozeki banzuke for the first time in a very long while. If Daieisho also wins out here and goes double digits in May and July, we might actually see 6 ozeki by then.

[Eikokurai 3,433]

29 minutes ago, kumoryu said:

Surely there would be no suggestion of an ozeki promotion after just one tournament at sekiwake?

The rule of thumb is at least two basho in junior sanyaku. They needn't both be as Sekiwake. After all, the difference between the two ranks is considered so slight they even get paid the same salary.

Edited March 23, 2021 by Eikokurai

[Rocks 1,807]

31 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Can I shill my earlier analysis? 

Sure, now factor in Covid and losing the most dominant Yokozuna, in fact all Yokozuna, at the same time.  To use a favorite line these aren't so much rules, but guidelines. 

If it generates interest, and yen, you'll be seeing lots of things that didn't used to be happen. Another thing to factor in is , like Terunofuji, Takayasu is a former Ozeki. They are known factors. Experienced, consistent winners, when not injured. This isn't the bad old days Ozeki abusing the kosho system to hang around longer than they should.  They earned it back. With Yushos.  

Edited March 23, 2021 by Rocks

[Seiyashi 4,071]

8 minutes ago, Rocks said:

This isn't the bad old days Ozeki abusing the kosho system to hang around longer than they should. 

Arguably, these are the worse new days where you have yokozuna hanging around longer than they should... But Takayasu and Terunofuji are really flying the flag for ex-ozeki-soon-to-be-re-ozeki pride right now. I just hope they don't fall under whatever curse seems to be afflicting the ozeki once they get there.

[Amamaniac 2,078]

4 hours ago, SumoKitten said:

I doubt the 5 or even 6 ozeki bansuke will happen... Not because I can't see Takayasu and Daieisho (re)claiming the rank, but because I feel confident in two of the current ozeki to be demoted by then. Shodai being my front runner for the demotion. 

I think you make an important point.  After ten days of this tournament, there has yet to be a day when all three Ozeki won their bouts, i.e., bouts that on paper they should be winning.  As for Shodai being a candidate for early demotion, you could well be right.  He definitely has a confidence issue, in part because he thinks too much.  But I will also point out that despite the fact that he is struggling and struggling bad in this tournament, his recent record suggests that each time he has a very poor performance, he follows it with a very good performance.  So I am still optimistic that he will come back strong (stronger?) in May.

My chief concern right now (i.e., my "frontrunner for demotion") is Takakeisho.  His record stands at 6-4, and normally an Ozeki can count on getting at the very least two wins over five days.  But to be frank, I am not sure he is physically and mentally up to the challenge.  He might be able to secure a valuable white star from his non-kadoban fellow Ozeki, Shodai.  But everyone else that he will face will have the smell of blood in their nostrils... if you know what I mean.  In short, I wouldn't be surprised if Takakeisho will only win one more bout in this tournament.  If he wins two more, I will breathe a sigh of relief along with all the Battle Hampster fans on the Forum.  However, I seriously doubt he can rack up three more wins in the days remaining.

So there is a possibility that Shodai will have to line up behind Takakeisho on the demotion train. 

Edited March 23, 2021 by Amamaniac

[Gernobono 455]

1 minute ago, Amamaniac said:

He definitely has a confidence issue, in part because he thinks too much

where do you get that Insight? or is this pseudopsychological Blabla?

[kumoryu 88]

Look, I'm sure there is precedent for a K - K - S - O run, although I've never figured out how to do the database search for things like that, but I bet it's very rare. The K - S - S - O runs mentioned above are much more normal I think. But I bow to superior knowledge here and will hope you are right, because I'm a huge Takayasu fan.

[Amamaniac 2,078]

1 minute ago, Gernobono said:

3 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

He definitely has a confidence issue, in part because he thinks too much

where do you get that Insight? or is this pseudopsychological Blabla?

To answer your first question, the issue was discussed during NHK World broadcasts, especially during the 2020 Autumn Tournament that he won. According to those reports, Shodai himself recognises and struggles with this issue on a regular basis.

To answer your second question, whether it comes from others or from the individual in question, there is always a chance that it is pseudo-psychological bla bla...

So please take it as you will.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

7 minutes ago, kumoryu said:

Look, I'm sure there is precedent for a K - K - S - O run, although I've never figured out how to do the database search for things like that, but I bet it's very rare. The K - S - S - O runs mentioned above are much more normal I think. But I bow to superior knowledge here and will hope you are right, because I'm a huge Takayasu fan.

And you're right: there's one modern precedent for a K - K (yusho) - S - O run. Discarding Musashiyama in the good old days of <15 honbasho, we have Kaio: 8-7, 14-1 Y, then 11-4 as sekiwake before promotion to ozeki with a very credible 11-4 debut. The Dejima and Hakuho runs above were K - S - S - O, but only Dejima's third basho involved a yusho; Hakuho had a JY and a D.

What I'm more interested in (but haven't figured out how to search for) is how many people have thrown a 2-bout lead on day 10.

[Eikokurai 3,433]

17 minutes ago, kumoryu said:

Look, I'm sure there is precedent for a K - K - S - O run, although I've never figured out how to do the database search for things like that, but I bet it's very rare. The K - S - S - O runs mentioned above are much more normal I think. But I bow to superior knowledge here and will hope you are right, because I'm a huge Takayasu fan.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&amp;columns=4&amp;n_basho=4&amp;form1_rank=M-K&amp;form2_rank=M-K&amp;form3_rank=K-S&amp;form4_rank=O

29 such promotions, though the most recent was Kaio in 2000. (I included runs starting at Maegashira since I reason the same logic applies.)

17 minutes ago, Gernobono said:

where do you get that Insight? or is this pseudopsychological Blabla?

That's a little sharper than we're used to on the forum, if you don't mind my saying. It's fairly well documented by the man himself that Shodai has had confidence issues. You can also tell a lot about such things just by looking at people. Intuition.

Edited March 23, 2021 by Eikokurai

[Amamaniac 2,078]

14 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

What I'm more interested in (but haven't figured out how to search for) is how many people have thrown a 2-bout lead on day 10.

While it doesn't quite fit the bill, the 2017 Autumn Tournament is an interesting and perhaps more dramatic case.  On day 10, frontrunner Goeido had a three-bout lead over the eventual winner, Harumafuji.  That yusho reversal ended up requiring a ketteisen playoff.  

It was either a mega car crash in terms of throwing away a comfortable lead, or it was an amazing comeback by a determined Yokozuna, ... or both.

Edited March 23, 2021 by Amamaniac

[Seiyashi 4,071]

5 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

22 minutes ago, kumoryu said:

Look, I'm sure there is precedent for a K - K - S - O run, although I've never figured out how to do the database search for things like that, but I bet it's very rare. The K - S - S - O runs mentioned above are much more normal I think. But I bow to superior knowledge here and will hope you are right, because I'm a huge Takayasu fan.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&amp;columns=4&amp;n_basho=4&amp;form1_rank=M-K&amp;form2_rank=M-K&amp;form3_rank=K-S&amp;form4_rank=O

29 such promotions, though the most recent was Kaio in 2000. (I included runs starting at Maegashira since I reason the same logic applies.)

For practical purposes, I think only 3 apply - Tochihikari, Kirishima, and Kaio. The rest are all premodern or pre <15 days.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

1 minute ago, Amamaniac said:

10 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

What I'm more interested in (but haven't figured out how to search for) is how many people have thrown a 2-bout lead on day 10.

While it doesn't quite fit the bill, the 2017 Autumn Tournament is an interesting and perhaps more dramatic case.  On day 10, frontrunner Goeido had a three-bout lead over the eventual winner, Harumafuji.  That yusho reversal ended up requiring a ketteisen playoff.  

It was either a mega car crash in terms fo throwing away a comfortable lead, or it was an amazing comeback by a determined Yokozuna, ... or both.

So you mean we should be looking at the 6-win bunch for the eventual yusho winner?