Banzuke for Hatsu 2021

[Yamanashi 2,966]

1 hour ago, Nantonoyama said:

The difference between 0-7 and 0-0-7 is 35/40 ranks in makushita,

To clarify, you lose 35 ranks with an 0-7 and you lose 40 ranks with an 0-0-7.

[Seiyashi 3,458]

42 minutes ago, pricklypomegranate said:

Why change his name to that of a famous samurai? I thought it was in reference to the first yokozuna, but the kanji is different. 

Maybe the closest thing to a local hero? The old Amago lands in Izumo are adjacent to Ishiura's Tottori shusshin. 

[Yokozuna Hattorizakura 119]

Guess I need to change my shikona now too lol. Anyway I can do that?

On a more serious note, that makushita joi looks absolutely stacked. So many sekitori level guys there fighting for promotion. will be very exciting to watch.

[Asashosakari 16,846]

3 hours ago, Nantonoyama said:

It is consistent with the fact to treat better those who show up (...)

It's consistent with that, but not with the usual handling of 0-0-15's. Often enough there's no discernible difference in the committee's treatment between those and "he was there" zero-win records at all (e.g. after Haru 2012). Inasmuch as there have been differences in the past, it mostly manifested itself as zero-win records with attendance getting to benefit from positive banzuke luck if some was available, while full kyujo were more likely - but not guaranteed - to be dropped a standard amount no matter what (13-ish ranks from maegashira, 15-ish from juryo).

So yeah, at 18.5 ranks there's definitely some bonus punishment for Abi here. A "regular" 0-0-15 rikishi at J11w might still have been demoted a little more than Fujiazuma, but considering their previous 2.5-rank difference he certainly would have stayed ahead of him.
 

2 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

To clarify, you lose 35 ranks with an 0-7 and you lose 40 ranks with an 0-0-7.

To clarify even further, it's only 30 ranks these days when ranked Ms5 and above. 

Edited December 24, 2020 by Asashosakari

[WAKATAKE 2,365]

5 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

Juryo with 0-15:

Seionada 1/1988  J13 -> Ms15

Yotsukasa 11/2005 J14  -> intai

Oki 9/2020 J13  -> Ms13

Fujiazuma 11/2020 J14 -> Ms13

Pretty consistent.  One important factor (?): they lost fifteen matches, not 0-0-15 "kyujo".

Juryo J12-J16 with kyujo (post-kosho):

J12 -> Ms13, J14 -> Ms15, J13 -> Ms11

So, J11 -> kyujo -> Ms16 is a bit of a stretch, but not actionable.  As Kintamayama suggests, just a little message.

You forgot Hoshitango...

[Highway 45]

Looking at the banzuke here http://www.sumo.or.jp/EnHonbashoBanzuke/index/ for the first time something has made an impression on me - there are only two wrestlers in all of Makuuchi from Tokyo. Is that surprising in any way? I am not Japanese so obviously don't know all the nuances, but Tokyo makes about a 1/4th of the entire population and half the tournaments every year take place there...would there be an expectation that there would be more successful rikishi from the capital?

[pricklypomegranate 730]

59 minutes ago, Highway said:

Looking at the banzuke here http://www.sumo.or.jp/EnHonbashoBanzuke/index/ for the first time something has made an impression on me - there are only two wrestlers in all of Makuuchi from Tokyo. Is that surprising in any way? I am not Japanese so obviously don't know all the nuances, but Tokyo makes about a 1/4th of the entire population and half the tournaments every year take place there...would there be an expectation that there would be more successful rikishi from the capital?

It's very much like the US or UK. Most people aren't born in New York or London, but many people move there. If you think about it, every rikishi contributes to Tokyo's population, even though they aren't born there. So, that depletes the concentration of Tokyo-born rikishi. Also, Tokyo is not really a powerhouse of sumo - consider more regional centres like Tottori, Saitama and Ishikawa. Another factor is that sumo isn't seen as the most prestigious career to get into, especially if you have the good fortune to be born in Tokyo. 

Edited December 24, 2020 by pricklypomegranate

[Seiyashi 3,458]

3 hours ago, Highway said:

Looking at the banzuke here http://www.sumo.or.jp/EnHonbashoBanzuke/index/ for the first time something has made an impression on me - there are only two wrestlers in all of Makuuchi from Tokyo. Is that surprising in any way? I am not Japanese so obviously don't know all the nuances, but Tokyo makes about a 1/4th of the entire population and half the tournaments every year take place there...would there be an expectation that there would be more successful rikishi from the capital?

The big missed nuance is probably what constitutes Tokyo. I'd originally added this as a reply to pricklypomegranate's quite excellent reply, but on further digging I found out that the numbers actually do check out (hence rendering PP's reply and my reply to it quite moot) and here's why.

To be very precise, Tokyo proper (the administrative unit of Tokyo-to) only makes up 10% of the Japanese population (12/125 million), whereas the Greater Tokyo Area (various definitions, but usually includes Chiba, Saitama, Ibaraki and Yamanashi) is the one that makes up 25%+ of the population (37+/125 million). So 2/31 (excluding 11 foreign-born makuuchi sekitori) makuuchi sekitori on the banzuke is within reason for Tokyo itself. If you include the Greater Tokyo Area, you get 10 makuuchi sekitori in total, which is still a good proportionate representation of the area.

The interesting analysis would be for Osaka (rather than Tokyo), which was a historical home for sumo and similarly a metropolitan area, but on a quick look is majorly underrepresented with only Myogiryu and Takakeisho from anywhere near the area. But I've gone too far down this rabbit hole to be arsed to look up the numbers for Osaka at this point. Also, extending the analysis to the banzuke as a whole might validate PP's points in general. 

Edited December 24, 2020 by Seiyashi

[Yamanashi 2,966]

8 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

You forgot Hoshitango...

Thanks.  I was concentrating on J12-J17, which would be similar to Abi.  Hoshitango 0-15 J8 -> Ms8 which would be a drop of 13 ranks.

[Asashosakari 16,846]

On the rikishi representation of Tokyo-to, there are currently no less than 5 of them in juryo, including the two highly-regarded newcomers Oho and Tohakuryu. The Kyokai's banzuke topics (not available in English yet) refer to them as Tokyo sekitori #49 and #50 since WWII. That's indeed not all that many considering there have been some 900 sekitori debuts in that period of time, but I would say Tokyo is currently at one of its higher points.

[Yamanashi 2,966]

Rikishi Participation and Success for Selected Shusshin

(as recorded in the db, by Prefecture) with Hatsu Dohyo over the time periods 1961-1980, 1981-200, and 2001-2020.

Participation: 1961-1980  1981-2000  2001-2020

Tokyo       193  232  128

Aomori     138    99    36  

Chiba          58  107    79

Hokkaido 267  150    60

Saitama     42  100    76

Tottori        10      8      4

Ishikawa    34    12    24

[Of interest is the increase for some areas in the 80's-90's and the steep drop off in this century.  I may have misunderstood @pricklypomegranate about regional power centers.]

Next up: Sekitori

 

Edited December 24, 2020 by Yamanashi

[Yamanashi 2,966]

Rikishi Success by Selected Shusshin, Hatsu Dohyo

Sekitori: Juryo, Maegashira, Sanyaku (incl Y/O)

Shusshin       1961-1980  1981-2000  2001-2020

Tokyo             10       13       11

Aomori           15       21         6

Chiba                7       11         6

Hokkaido       36         5         3

Saitama           6         6         7

Tottori              0         0         1

Ishikawa          4         4         5

[The former success of the North (Hokkaido, Aomori) and its decline is striking.  Tottori is represented by Ishiura].

I'd be glad to run this analysis for other regions if needed.

 

[pricklypomegranate 730]

On 25/12/2020 at 07:24, Yamanashi said:

[Of interest is the increase for some areas in the 80's-90's and the steep drop off in this century.  I may have misunderstood @pricklypomegranate about regional power centers. 

On 25/12/2020 at 07:35, Yamanashi said:

[The former success of the North (Hokkaido, Aomori) and its decline is striking. Tottori is represented by Ishiura].

Indeed, the fact that I didn't mention Hokkaido (home of many great yokozunas) at the top of my list meant it has dropped quite significantly, as least in the mind of an average viewer like me... 

In my opinion, the current schedule of rikishi and sekitori is a time machine. It represents the most tenacious (though not necessarily the strongest, the most skilful or successful) of the amasumo scene 5 - 15 years ago. Let's look at some pro-sumo data (you may have to open the image in a new tab). 

Notes

*Based on 2015 census. They do the census every 5 years, and the 2020 version isn't out. 

**Out of active rikishi still active, but this is a little spotty, see *** note. 

***Out of 675, inclusive of maezumo, banzuke-gai. The Hatsu 2021 information hasn't been updated to Sumodb, so the non-sekitori population numbers might vary a bit. However, for the sekitori population the numbers are accurate as retirements (i.e. Kotoshogiku) and promotions (i.e. Oho) have been accounted for. 

^Only includes sekitori currently occupying any of the 60 salaried slots as of Hatsu 2021. 

^^If the Kyokai doesn't consider Greater Tokyo as Tokyo, I won't either for this exercise. 

Let the next picture bring special focus on the rikishi, sekitori and promotional success rankings by prefecture. 

So, you can see that in the case of Tokyo, they are lagging behind in terms of rikishi and sekitori representation relative to their general population but are still #1 rikishi/sekitori contributors. They are also achieving promotional rates proportional to their population, but are only #18 in this respect. 

Consider a smaller prefecture being disproportionately represented like Ishikawa. They are only #34 in terms of population, but are #24 in rikishi representation, #5 in sekitori representation and #2 in promotional rates (nearly 1 in 3!). 

Qualitative analysis which cannot be represented in these tables shouldn't be omitted either. Ishikawa has extremely high profile sekitori like Enho and Endo, and notable up-and-comers like Ofukasawa. That of course helps the perception of a powerhouse compared to rikishi of lower profile like those of Mie, for example. Perceptions are important. If I were an oyakata, the best thing would be raising a very successful (>Ozeki) rikishi who is very popular, but the second best thing might be a more modestly achieving but very popular rikishi as it brings new people into the sport. Tottori might seem like it has only Ishiura, but they have also brought up successful rikishi like Ichinojo or up-and-comer Hokuseiho. It's worth noting that Ishiura's father, whom long-time observers will know is the principal and sumo coach for Tottori Johoku, was an Ishikawa native/formerly well-known or established there himself. That's how Enho (Ishikawa) got noticed by the Miyagino group in the first place. 

The Tottori Johoku trend is also reflected in other powerhouse schools like Saitama Sakae. The prefecture may seem to be underperforming, but extremely successful out-of-town rikishi like Takakeisho (Hyogo) also credit them for his success. With children/uni-students moving prefectures or even countries to train for pro-sumo at an increasing pace, shusshin and identity has become increasingly fluid and complicated. 

You shouldn't take the rankings chart too literally of course, but I believe rankings always has some entertainment value and could be used to supplement your qualitative observations of the sumo world at large. 

Bringing it back to my original statement - I do think that for the most part, the banzuke does represent the most tenacious of the amasumo scene 5 - 15 years ago. There are places that are regional powerhouses now, but may/may not be in the future (i.e. Ishikawa) and those that aren't now, but could be in the future (i.e. Tottori). It's all very complicated. I'll might something similar to the amasumo charts after Christmas, but I might not be able to make sense out of it with the limited data about 2020 performances available (due to tournament cancellations). 

Edited December 26, 2020 by pricklypomegranate

[Yamanashi 2,966]

The obvious deficiency to the analysis I gave is that the current population may be chock full of sanyaku, but not for a few years.  Indeed, that's one of the reasons I gave twenty-year windows.  It's also why I used hatsu-dohyo as my time variable, because it's the point at which they start their pro training.  I invite others to do a deeper dive into University, high school, etc. as has been done well above by @pricklypomegranate.  I think he/she/xe would agree: "come on in, the water's warm!"

[Akinomaki 34,916]

On 23/12/2020 at 23:45, Yubinhaad said:

Jk28e Hattorizakura Futoshi > Shonanzakura Sota (勝南桜  聡太)

Shonanzakura: he is from the Shonan  湘南 region (as in Shonannoumi) and used the kanji 勝 for win for the Sho. http://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/202012230001060.html

[WAKATAKE 2,365]

Banzuke topics for Hatsu 2021

- Shodai is the 10th ozeki to be kadoban in his second basho as ozeki and the first since Takakeisho in July 2019
- Asanoyama is kadoban for the first time in his ozeki career (after only 3 basho)
- Last time we had kadoban ozeki was Takakeisho in July 2020
- Last time two ozeki were kadoban at the same time were Goeido and Tochinoshin in Aki 2019
- Terunofuji returns to sekiwake for the first time since Kyushu 2017, which is 18 basho (Natsu 2020 was cancelled and not counted). This is also his second consecutive basho in sanyaku. Like last basho where he was the first rikishi with sanyaku experience to fall all the way to Jonidan and return to sanyaku, he now can count this accomplishment towards the sekiwake rank as well
- Takanosho is ranked at sekiwake and in sanyaku for the second consecutive basho
- Mitakeumi is ranked at komusubi for the first time since Natsu 2019, which is 9 basho (Natsu 2020 was cancelled and not counted). This is still his fourth consecutive basho in sanyaku (He previously had a run of 17 basho not long ago)
- Midorifuji is the newest Makuuchi debut from Isegahama since Terutsuyoshi in Haru 2019. 5th debut from Shizuoka prefecture post-war and the first since Sagatsukasa in Haru 2010. 11th Makuuchi wrestler from Kinki University and the first since Shimanoumi in Natsu 2019
- Akiseyama returns to the top division for the first time in 28 basho, last time was Haru 2016. This is the 4th slowest return on record in the 6BPY era
- Oho makes his long awaited sekitori debut (no thanks to daddy) and is the second sekitori debut from Otake heya since the current Otake oyakata (Dairyu) took over. Oho and Takatoriki are also the 11th set of father-son sekitori wrestlers and the first since Kotonowaka the Younger added him and his father to the list in Nagoya 2019
- Tohakuryu (formerly Shiraishi) is the third sekitori debut from Tamanoi heya since the current oyakata took over. 11th sekitori wrestler from Toyo University and the first since Wakatakakage in Natsu 2018. 5th sandanme tsukedashi wrestler and the first since Kizakiumi in Nagoya 2019
- Oho and Tohakuryu are the 49th and 50th post-war sekitori debutants from Tokyo prefecture
- Yago returns to Juryo for the first time since Haru 2020
- Ryuko returns to Juryo for the first time since Nagoya 2019 (8 basho). Since the inception of the 7-0 within Makushita 15 --> Juryo promotion in Nagoya 1977, Ryuko is the second wrestler to gain promotion from the west Makushita 15 rank since Tokitsunada in Aki 1990

Edited December 30, 2020 by WAKATAKE

[Tigerboy1966 1,019]

On 26/12/2020 at 18:38, WAKATAKE said:

- Midorifuji is the newest Makuuchi debut from Isegahama since Terutsuyoshi in Haru 2020.

Should be Haru 2019.

[Akinomaki 34,916]

Aomori-shusshin rikishi decline - blue: all, violet: sekitori

o

[Yamanashi 2,966]

For rikishi born between 1950 and 1969, 16 attained Yokozuna or Ozeki.  Six were from Hokkaido, four from Aomiri, two from the U.S., and four from the rest of Japan.  Since then, only one Y/O from either prefecture (Ozeki Takanonami, born 1971 in Misawa, Aomori).