Invitation to GTB- Hatsu 2021- and RESULTS!!

[Kintamayama 40,145]

New phone. Bleeeep fzzzz grrr..Bleeeep fzzzz grrr..

Hak: "Yes, Anand.. I heard, I heard.."

Kak: "No, no. They're serious this time. I'm telling you.. They're after us and want us out! So I missed  a few bashos..big..

H: "Hey, hey, slow down.. you're babbling.. They can't touch us.."

K: "We're not in the same boat, you and your 500 yushos and achievements, and me. Nobody respects me.."

H; "I do.. My oyakata didn't give me an ultimatum, though.."

K :"Oh, he did alright. I heard you had him in an armbar hold for twenty minutes before he agreed to retract his statement.."

H: "Ten minutes, but I deny that. He knows I will be back the minute I get better. "

K: "Better? Better than who? Every time you come back you get a zensho. Every time I try to get back, I get beaten by guys I never heard of. I have underwear older than some of them." 

H: "I guess we'll just have to get back on the dohyo and show them what's what, huh? And stop that meatball from becoming a Yokozuna."

K: "Sorry, gotta go. They're tearing down the old Izutsu building and I left my glasses there somewhere.."

Soooo, yet again, this is an invitation to play the "Guess the Banzuke" game!! Please play. Rules: Guess the Banzuke. Simple. You get two points for a bulls-eye and one point for just getting the rank right. You get no points for being biased against foreigners. . Tiebreakers - Most total guesses, then we check the banzuke backwards - getting the lower half right will be important.  The most correct guesses in the last ten places will win the tiebreaker. If still tied, we go up a ranking at a time like a penalty shootout. It's up to you to check if you are on the list of entries. It's going to be your fault if you don't notice that your entry went missing in the Internet void. No late entries will be expected or accepted.

For rules, standings and YDC membership requirements: http://www.dichne.com/Guess.htm

For the nifty entry form: http://sumodb.sumoga...b/GTBEntry.aspx

For the "new" archives: http://sumodb.sumoga...gtbarchive.aspx

See if you are on the entry list: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/gtb/GTBEntryList.aspx

Deadline- Thursday December 17th, 2020 at 18:00 GMT ("Gagamaru, Many Thanks!!") - PLEASE NOTE-THIS IS ONE WEEK BEFORE THE OFFICIAL BANZUKE ANNOUNCEMENT !!

Special thanks to Andoreasu who runs it, Doitsuyama who automates and maintains it and to Ura who makes things happier.

 

 

Edited December 24, 2020 by Kintamayama

[Jakusotsu 4,840]

58 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

New phone. Bleeeep fzzzz grrr..Bleeeep fzzzz grrr..

Sounds like Takanohana's fax machine.

Edited November 28, 2020 by Jakusotsu

[Kintamayama 40,145]

Just now, Jakusotsu said:

Sounds like a fax machine.

It's actually a smartphone playing sounds from a "Star Wars" laser war.

 

[Hidenotora 62]

This entire GTB is going to hinge on if they add extra sanyaku slots or not. If you guess that aspect wrong, your entire entry may as well be scrapped haha.
It feels really harsh to not add the extra slots, right now I'm thinking they will add them but as time goes on I become less and convinced... Will be interesting either way!

Edited November 29, 2020 by Hidenotora

[Rocks 1,722]

4 hours ago, Hidenotora said:

but as time goes on I become less and convinced...

Which is why I got my pick in quick and I'm sticking with it. I talked myself into it so I know I'm easily capable of talking myself out of it so I put in and am leaving it no  matter what.

[Hidenotora 62]

4 hours ago, Rocks said:

Which is why I got my pick in quick and I'm sticking with it. I talked myself into it so I know I'm easily capable of talking myself out of it so I put in and am leaving it no  matter what.

The same situation in Aki 2019 (10-5 at M2W) lead to K2 ranks, so I don't see why it wouldn't here. I've just been scarred by the madness of 2020 and now I just assume that the opposite of what I expect to happen, will happen.

But I think I'm going to die on this hill, K2 or bust!

[Kintamayama 40,145]

5 days to go. Not too many players.. I've gotten used to the big numbers of late. 

[Kaito 187]

I keep putting it off because I still have no idea how many komusubi. I was thinking about getting provisional GTB rankings together though, if Asashosakari's done with it.

[Atenzan 1,074]

Thursday deadline? Craziest thing I've seen all year.

[Gurowake 3,434]

14 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

5 days to go. Not too many players.. I've gotten used to the big numbers of late. 

I think a lot of people may be taking the Asashosakari approach of "they might spoil the contents of the sanyaku before the deadline".  Or else deciding that because they can't decide, they'll just sit out.  If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.

[Oshirokita 153]

3 hours ago, Gurowake said:

  If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.

Ah, some profound music lyrics from my youth. RIP Neil Peart.

I will make an entry forthwith.

[Kintamayama 40,145]

Two and a half days to go. Don't wait till the last moment- the site goes down usually around deadline day... All hinges on the number of Komusubi.

[Shatsume 107]

I really don't like my entry, it's too by the numbers and pat (for the most part), not nearly enough crazy. Second option was to enter with what I genuinely think they will do, but it looks such an unmitigated mess that I can't bring myself to do it! hope everyone else had this dilema

Edited December 16, 2020 by Shatsume

[Gurowake 3,434]

[Kaito 187]

I don't even want to post mine because this was my lowest-effort entry by a lot, but I hope you've got Midorifuji and Akiseyama 2 ranks too low. Of course, before that matters, I hope we're right about 2 komusubi.

[Gurowake 3,434]

55 minutes ago, Kaito said:

I don't even want to post mine because this was my lowest-effort entry by a lot, but I hope you've got Midorifuji and Akiseyama 2 ranks too low. Of course, before that matters, I hope we're right about 2 komusubi.

If there were 4 Komusubi they would be ranked ahead of Yutakayama because then there would be two gaps in the rankings after demoting Makuuchi guys the normal amounts, and those spots could reasonably be filled by the guys coming up from Juryo.  But without those two gaps in the ranks, I don't think these Juryo promotees will be pushing down guys in Makuuchi more than they should be by the numbers.  It's a really strange situation to be in, but that's banzuke making for you.  It doesn't always make the most sense.  In general, I tend to be overly harsh to Juryo promotees when there's a logjam, simply because they faced much weaker competition on average for their relative rank.  If J1s and J2s had half their matches in Makuuchi, then I could justify comparing them more evenly to guys in Makuuchi, but since almost all their matches are against guys ranked lower than them, it's generally hard to justify them being ranked higher than anyone in Makuuchi who didn't deserve to be demoted from Makuuchi. 

But I could be wrong.  That's what makes the game interesting.

Edited December 18, 2020 by Gurowake

[Godango 754]

2 hours ago, Kaito said:

I don't even want to post mine because this was my lowest-effort entry by a lot, but I hope you've got Midorifuji and Akiseyama 2 ranks too low. Of course, before that matters, I hope we're right about 2 komusubi.

I get it, I rushed mine and have spotted some glaring errors already; but hey, here's hoping.

Also I hope you're all wrong about two Komusubi.

 

[Shatsume 107]

Talking of glaring errors, I was so concerned about the Komosubi question that I forgot to swap Shodai and Asanoyama That's 4 points dropped already, great 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Shatsume

[Reonito 597]

8 hours ago, Shatsume said:

That's 4 points dropped already, great

Only 2, right? The rank (ozeki) is still correct, I don't believe the scoring counts O2 as a separate rank.

[Shatsume 107]

41 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Only 2, right? The rank (ozeki) is still correct, I don't believe the scoring counts O2 as a separate rank.

Huh, looks like you are correct, I did the terrible thing of assuming that O1/O2 etc were treated as different ranks for GTB, but looking back at my second entry I got 1 pt each for Haramafuji/Kakuryu being switched over Y1/Y2. Every day is a school day  At least its only 2 points dropped due to my own stupidity!

[Asashosakari 16,696]

With a queasy feeling I went for the komusubi quartet:

Hakuho (Ye 0-0-15)        Y    Kakuryu (Yw 0-0-15)
Takakeisho (O1e 13-2 Y)   O1   Shodai (O2e 3-2-10)
Asanoyama (O1w 1-2-12)    O2   ---
Takanosho (Sw 8-7)        S    Terunofuji (Ke 13-2 D)
Takayasu (Kw 8-7)         K1   Hokutofuji (M4e 11-4)
Daieisho (M2w 10-5)       K2   Mitakeumi (Se 7-8)

Takarafuji (M6e 9-6)      M1   Wakatakakage (M1w 7-8)
Onosho (M2e 7-8)          M2   Tochinoshin (M7e 9-6)
Kotoshoho (M5w 8-7)       M3   Tamawashi (M6w 8-7)
Endo (M7w 8-7)            M4   Ryuden (M10e 9-6)
Meisei (M10w 9-6)         M5   Okinoumi (M3w 6-9)
Tokushoryu (M9e 8-7)      M6   Tobizaru (M4w 6-9)
Kagayaki (M3e 5-10)       M7   Chiyonokuni (M14e 10-5)
Kiribayama (M1e 3-12)     M8   Shimanoumi (M17e 11-4)
Chiyotairyu (M15e 9-6)    M9   Aoiyama (M8e 6-9)
Ichinojo (M13w 8-7)       M10  Myogiryu (M5e 4-11)
Akua (M16w 9-6)           M11  Kotoeko (M9w 6-9)
Terutsuyoshi (M8w 5-10)   M12  Chiyoshoma (M16e 8-7)
Hoshoryu (M13e 7-8)       M13  Yutakayama (M12e 6-9)
Kaisei (M12w 6-9)         M14  Kotonowaka (M14w 7-8)
Sadanoumi (M11e 5-10)     M15  Midorifuji (J2e 10-5 Y)
Akiseyama (J1e 9-6)       M16  ---

[Gurowake 3,434]

See, he even has Midorifuji and Akiseyama at the bottom of the division even when there's theoretically room for them higher without demoting Makuuchi guys too far.  It's certainly reasonable for basically the same reason as I gave for my placement of them there, even if it does look even worse in terms of direct comparisons.  I would personally think guys with 1 more win than they needed for promotion by the numbers would be ranked ahead of Makuuchi MKs that are right at the bottom 2 ranks of the division by the numbers.

[Reonito 597]

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

With a queasy feeling I went for the komusubi quartet:

Given your track record, that decision on your part is making those of us who went the other way queasy 

[Reonito 597]

I feel like they've been a little less harsh with the ranks for those promoted from Juryo the last couple of banzuke. I've got Akiseyama ahead of Sadanoumi, and Midorifuji a couple of ranks higher, though I'm second-guessing that after seeing your draft @Gurowake

[fwuzzle23 52]

Honestly I'm somewhat glad there doesn't seem to be a consensus on the komusubi number, and I wouldn't be surprised by any of the plausible choices. I'm not posting my full guess but I went down the middle and did three, promoting Daieisho but not Hokutofuji. My justification is Daieisho had a 4-2 record against sanyaku opponents last basho (compared to 1-4 for Hokutofuji). I feel like a big part of these judgement-call promotions is showing through their results that they deserve the promotion, and having a winning record against sanyaku opposition does that for me. Daieisho's also been slightly more successful at sanyaku level than Hokutofuji has (11-4 a few basho ago at K vs. Hokutofuji never having recorded a KK there). Finally, if nothing else, 3 Ks is my way of hedging my bets to avoid being too badly hurt if it's 2 or 4. But again, they could go any way with it and I wouldn't be surprised.

You guys having Midorifuji and Akiseyama so far down when I have them in the M13-14 area is definitely giving me some anxiety, though....