2021 "Kozumo" Hatsu Basho discussion thread

[Eikokurai 3,433]

5 hours ago, Reonito said:

There's never been an Ozeki promotion in the 6 basho era without at least the last two tournaments ranked in san'yaku. The closest parallel is Wakahanada in 1992-1993, who went M4 9-6, M3 10-5, K 14-1 Y and did not get promoted. He also went S 10-5 in the following basho without getting promoted, before finally forcing the issue with S 13-2 D. So I say not before May.

The one counter there is that his M1w rank this time was something of a false rank. His 10-5 record in November deserved a higher promotion but he was unfortunate that the sanyaku all got KK* and there was no slot for him. Most of the time he’d have been moved up to sanyaku. In fact, he was the first M2 to get a 10-5 record and not get promoted to at least Komusubi, so there’s the argument that this basho he is a de facto Komusubi. If the Kyokai is feeling generous, they could interpret it this way for an Ozeki run if his May performance is sufficiently strong enough to force the question.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=M2&form1_wins=10&form1_losses=5

*Well, Mitakeumi got 7-8 which was enough to keep him at Komusubi.

P.S. For some reason, Daieisho’s Nov 10-5 doesn’t appear in the search results. Issue with the DB?

Edited January 23, 2021 by Eikokurai

[Reonito 1,335]

31 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

The one counter there is that his M1w rank this time was something of a false rank.

I don't think it works that way. Rank is rank, and there's no "memory" in the system of the circumstances under which it was achieved. Wakahanada was very unlucky to go from M4 to M3 after a 9-6, and could have easily made san'yaku on a different banzuke, but them's the breaks. In his case, a 14-1 yusho wasn't enough to force the issue; I wasn't following then but I doubt it even came up.

[Eikokurai 3,433]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

I don't think it works that way. Rank is rank, and there's no "memory" in the system of the circumstances under which it was achieved. Wakahanada was very unlucky to go from M4 to M3 after a 9-6, and could have easily made san'yaku on a different banzuke, but them's the breaks. In his case, a 14-1 yusho wasn't enough to force the issue; I wasn't following then but I doubt it even came up.

I agree that’s not how it usually works and probably won’t this time either; I just bring it up as a point for discussion. The Kyokai has discretion in all matters of promotion, so the possibility always remains for new precedents to be set. They’re happy to include at least one joi record, after all. It’s not so far outside the realm of probability that they could count two in exceptional circumstances. If Daieisho does something extraordinary in March, like another yusho or a high-scoring JY, I’m of the mind that could be enough to force a promotion, with this January’s record regarded as a Komusubi-equivalent. That sanyaku sweep in week one has to count for something.

To add, there’s the argument that if he manages another yusho (assuming he wins this one first) that his M2 record wouldn’t even be part of the equation anyway. Rather, the back-to-back yusho would be sufficient to make the case, similar to how Terunofuji was promoted largely off the back of two honbasho, not three.

Edited January 24, 2021 by Eikokurai

[Reonito 1,335]

1. They haven't said a word about it (unlike in Terunofuji's case). 2. The Kyokai is loath to do anything they've never done before. 3. Daieisho only has 3 prior san'yaku appearances, 2 ending in MK, with the most recent being a 5-10 campaign at Sekiwake, and has never been mentioned in the same sentence as "Ozeki" before, so he is not the kind of rikishi who's likely to get the benefit of the doubt.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

39 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I don't think it works that way. Rank is rank, and there's no "memory" in the system of the circumstances under which it was achieved.

I'm convinced that e.g. a komusubi who gets back-to-back 10 wins would be given a promotion to sekiwake in a third spot even in the current stingy era, even though neither result is individually good enough to force the issue.
 

Perhaps not overly relevant here, but a recent example showing that they just might be receptive to the idea of "correcting" things via a later banzuke:

After 2020.03, due to an unusual crowding in that banzuke area (3-4's were dropping about 20 ranks, instead of the usual 10-15), zero-win records that went from makushita to sandanme were demoted several ranks harder than the normal 35/40, something they almost never deviate from - in particular, these records basically never get lucky when the opposite happens and there is some room to spare for smaller demotions for the MKs. As the query shows it affected only those guys - the zero-win people in sandanme dropped the normal 50/60 ranks.

Gagamaru in particular dropped 43.5 instead of 40 there. Now, after 2020.07, even though every other zero-winner in sandanme received the standard 50/60 rank drop again, for some reason Gagamaru only went down 57.5, just about compensating for his overdemotion the previous time. 

Edited January 24, 2021 by Asashosakari

[Eikokurai 3,433]

2 minutes ago, Reonito said:

1. They haven't said a word about it (unlike in Terunofuji's case). 2. The Kyokai is loath to do anything they've never done before. 3. Daieisho only has 3 prior san'yaku appearances, 2 ending in MK, with the most recent being a 5-10 campaign at Sekiwake, and has never been mentioned in the same sentence as "Ozeki" before, so he is not the kind of rikishi who's likely to get the benefit of the doubt.

Back-to-back yusho would focus their minds, I’m sure. That’s a rare feat. There have been Yokozuna who never managed it.

[Reonito 1,335]

2 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Back-to-back yusho would focus their minds, I’m sure.

Fair enough, though that's literally never been done by someone ranked below Ozeki in both tournaments.

[Eikokurai 3,433]

4 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Fair enough, though that's literally never been done by someone ranked below Ozeki in both tournaments.

Indeed, and probably never will. We can speculate until it does though, just for fun. :)

[dada78641 884]

5 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

AND the 9 man  Makushita playoffs AND the Jonidan playoffs AND the three man Jonokuchi playoffs which theoretically can go on forever.

Like the famous Kameido Gyoza izakaya (only two stops from the Kokugikan btw), which serves gyoza until they run out of their ingredients for the day, they can just do 大相撲放題 until they run out of salt.

[yohcun 393]

This might've been asked earlier, but...

When they draw straws for the bye in the playoff, does the rikishi who got the bye in the first round (of 9), get exempt from the second round bye draw (of 5)?

It seems like they should, or there's a decent chance of someone just lucking his way to the final round.

Edited January 24, 2021 by yohcun

[Gurowake 3,915]

16 minutes ago, yohcun said:

This might've been asked earlier, but...

When they draw straws for the bye in the playoff, does the rikishi who got the bye in the first round (of 9), get exempt from the second round bye draw (of 5)?

It seems like they should, or there's a decent chance of someone just lucking his way to the final round.

It's been mentioned earlier that we believe that's the case.  I have slightly better recollection now that it's handled somewhat in how the drawing of straws works, in that I think the rikishi who had the bye picks first from only the 4 straws for actual matches, and then the bye straw is added for the other 4 to pick from.  Still don't know where I heard/read it though.

[WAKATAKE 2,631]

Sansho are out!

Shukun-sho: Daieisho

Kanto-sho: Kotonowaka (conditionally)

Kanto-sho: Akiseyama (conditionally)

Gino-sho: Terunofuji (conditionally)

Gino-sho: Daieisho (conditionally)

Gino-sho: Midorifuji (conditionally)

Updated with Nikkan article. Daieisho's gino-sho condition is the yusho. Everyone else has to win their matches

https://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/202101240000283.html

Edited January 24, 2021 by WAKATAKE

[Eikokurai 3,433]

21 minutes ago, WAKATAKE said:

Sansho are out!

Shukun-sho: Daieisho

Kanto-sho: Kotonowaka (conditionally)

Kanto-sho: Akiseyama (conditionally)

Gino-sho: Terunofuji (conditionally)

Gino-sho: Daieisho (conditionally)

Gino-sho: Midorifuji (conditionally)

Boo. After that first week, Daieisho deserves all three if he takes the yusho. We haven’t had one of those since Kotomitsuki in 2000.

[Ichimawashi 573]

Seems a bit minor league to let Tsurugisho win the Juryo yusho thanks to Ikioi's kyujo, without at least making an attempt to rearrange matches around.

[Kaninoyama 1,694]

Glad to see Midorifuji has a shot at a gino-sho. 

[Edwardoho 23]

11 minutes ago, Ichimawashi said:

Seems a bit minor league to let Tsurugisho win the Juryo yusho thanks to Ikioi's kyujo, without at least making an attempt to rearrange matches around.

That’s what’s happening?

It takes all the excitement out of the final day. :(

[Gurowake 3,915]

1 hour ago, WAKATAKE said:

Daieisho's gino-sho condition is the yusho.

Boo for conditions that can be met while losing your only match of the day.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

9 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Boo for conditions that can be met while losing your only match of the day.

Strong disagree. Would you prefer it to be unconditional instead? Because that's the only realistic alternative.

[Gurowake 3,915]

6 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Strong disagree. Would you prefer it to be unconditional instead? Because that's the only realistic alternative.

I'm generally of the opinion that no conditions should ever be imposed that depend on the outcome of matches other than your own, but I doubt those are avoidable since they want to be able to give a shukun-sho to any non-Ozeki yusho winner.  I'm even more strongly opposed to ones in the exact situation I mentioned, when they give a condition, and you can meet the condition due solely to other matches going your way and not because you won any match yourself.  If you're not going to require a match win in some form for it to be given, then yes, it should be unconditional.

Edited January 24, 2021 by Gurowake

[Asashosakari 18,786]

10 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I'm generally of the opinion that no conditions should ever be imposed that depend on the outcome of matches other than your own, but I doubt those are avoidable since they want to be able to give a shukun-sho to any non-Ozeki yusho winner.  I'm even more strongly opposed to ones in the exact situation I mentioned, when they give a condition, and you can meet the condition due solely to other matches going your way and not because you won any match yourself.  If you're not going to require a match win in some form for it to be given, then yes, it should be unconditional.

I just see the conditions as a necessary evil in order to sort between borderline worthy and borderline unworthy, nothing more. Changes nothing about the fact that the sansho are a reward for 15 combined days of performance, regardless of how it has been achieved. A condition being on the final day does not in itself make the events of that day more important than the other 14.

Edited January 24, 2021 by Asashosakari

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,244]

Indeed how many maegashira rikishi have ended up with 12 wins but remained sansho less?

[Tigerboy1966 1,376]

Atamifuji wins the play-off in jonokuchi. Nogami follows up his jonokuchi win in November with the jonidan yusho. Now the nine-man playoff begins in makushita.

[Gernobono 455]

On 22/01/2021 at 09:08, Gernobono said:

guess the have a pre elimination round and the last 8 are elimnation for the yusho

 

have to rub it in

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Oldest guy in the field wins the playoff. Sure, why not.

[yohcun 393]

Good for Sakigake. His first yusho at any level. He looked on a mission through all his playoff matches, so I'm glad he managed it.