2021 "Kozumo" Hatsu Basho discussion thread

[Kashunowaka 300]

I wonder what happens if Daieisho wins tomorrow and then gets say 12 wins next time from sekiwake? That would be 35 wins in three basho. Even though the first two were from M2/M1 he would have faced all the top rankers in each of these bashos, coupled with the feat of having defeated all of them in Hatsu. I'd sure hope that would be enough for ozeki promotion.

[Reonito 1,335]

31 minutes ago, Kashunowaka said:

I wonder what happens if Daieisho wins tomorrow and then gets say 12 wins next time from sekiwake?

There's never been an Ozeki promotion in the 6 basho era without at least the last two tournaments ranked in san'yaku. The closest parallel is Wakahanada in 1992-1993, who went M4 9-6, M3 10-5, K 14-1 Y and did not get promoted. He also went S 10-5 in the following basho without getting promoted, before finally forcing the issue with S 13-2 D. So I say not before May.

[Thorbjarn 214]

I assume they would ask for ten more wins from Daeisho In May, I don't think they will rate 10 from M2 as strong enough. 

[robnplunder 974]

33 minutes ago, Kashunowaka said:

I wonder what happens if Daieisho wins tomorrow and then gets say 12 wins next time from sekiwake? That would be 35 wins in three basho. Even though the first two were from M2/M1 he would have faced all the top rankers in each of these bashos, coupled with the feat of having defeated all of them in Hatsu. I'd sure hope that would be enough for ozeki promotion.

This basho may be an aberration from his consistent performance at this level.   I hope this basho gives him the boost to reach the next level and join the Ozeki rank.  At age 27, this is the time his physical strength is at the peak.   It may be now or never.

[Jakusotsu 5,806]

21 minutes ago, Reonito said:

There's never been an Ozeki promotion in the 6 basho era without at least the last two tournaments ranked in san'yaku.

Still, Daieisho might be a special case because he'd be Komusubi if not for extremely bad banzuke luck.

[Benevolance 2,478]

Yeah, but the best Daieisho can reasonably expect is to be M1e next tournament. But maybe if he can get a couple of yusho in a row, I think they'll make him komusubi. 

[robnplunder 974]

12 minutes ago, Benevolance said:

Yeah, but the best Daieisho can reasonably expect is to be M1e next tournament. But maybe if he can get a couple of yusho in a row, I think they'll make him komusubi. 

I think they may open up an extra spot for Daieisho in the next basho.  That will be my GTB play.

[Tigerboy1966 1,376]

I've just been re-watching the Terunofuji v Shodai match for the umpteenth time and something occurred to me. I suspect that Terunofuji knew exactly where he was at every point in the match and may have been dicking around a bit to make it look like Shodai had a chance. "Here you go, push me out, too slow... here's my back, push me out, missed me again... lets square up again... no you didn't fancy that did you?"

[Asashosakari 18,786]

2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

They needed an 8th match for someone in Makushita because Churanoumi's withdrawal left them with an odd sekitori out for Day 15.  They chose, as is usual, the Makushita rikishi that's highest ranked that's still competing and has at most 2 wins.  I can't say why Jokoryu was chosen as the sekitori, but I'm guessing there were very few options available for a full Juryo torikumi.  Asashosakari pointed out the the promotion thread that a good number of Juryo rikishi had only one possible opponent unless they were sent up or down divisions.

Sending up Daishomaru is definitely a creative choice and so is using Tokushoryu as his opponent (not only because of the large rank difference) - if I had known that's coming I'd have guessed they would put him against one of Yutakayama/Kotonowaka/Akiseyama. Before Churanoumi's withdrawal the handful of still-possible torikumi permutations pointed towards him and Daiamami getting called up for makuuchi matches due to lack of potential juryo opponents, afterwards I figured it would be Hidenoumi (that's indeed happening) and Daiamami.

And yeah, Nakazono getting to play tomorrow also opened up a few more scheduling options that wouldn't have existed with Churanoumi. Jokoryu kind of makes sense because he was also one of those highly restricted in potential opponents - only Nishikigi as mentioned in the other thread - so there are quite a few knock-on effects by making that match. (Primarily that Nishikigi became available as a potential opponent for no less than three others: Oho, Hakuyozan and Yago. And so on.)

Edited January 23, 2021 by Asashosakari

[hakutorizakura 590]

31 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

I've just been re-watching the Terunofuji v Shodai match for the umpteenth time and something occurred to me. I suspect that Terunofuji knew exactly where he was at every point in the match and may have been dicking around a bit to make it look like Shodai had a chance. "Here you go, push me out, too slow... here's my back, push me out, missed me again... lets square up again... no you didn't fancy that did you?"

His skills are up one notch above the 3 current ozeki. I wouldn't be surprised if he actually did that.

[Reonito 1,335]

1 hour ago, Jakusotsu said:

Still, Daieisho might be a special case because he'd be Komusubi if not for extremely bad banzuke luck.

If it's not on the banzuke, it didn't happen.

[Reonito 1,335]

1 hour ago, robnplunder said:

I think they may open up an extra spot for Daieisho in the next basho.  That will be my GTB play.

There's absolutely no question they will. I believe @Asashosakari concurs.

[Kintamayama 44,350]

3 minutes ago, Reonito said:

There's absolutely no question they will. I believe @Asashosakari concurs.

No doubt whatsoever. A 13-2 yusho and they may leapfrog him to sekiwake.

Edited January 23, 2021 by Kintamayama

[Kintamayama 44,350]

5 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

If Tsurugisho loses tomorrow we won't know who's in the play-off until about 20 minutes after the start of the maku'uchi matches, which is when Daishomaru fights. If the play-off is needed, the top division will grind to a halt as two, three or four men battle for the yusho title. 

AND the 9 man  Makushita playoffs AND the Jonidan playoffs AND the three man Jonokuchi playoffs which theoretically can go on forever.

[Tigerboy1966 1,376]

11 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

AND the 9 man  Makushita playoffs AND the Jonidan playoffs AND the three man Jonokuchi playoffs which theoretically can go on forever.

Eternal sumo would suit me fine. I feel a koan coming on "nine men fight, one man wins, how many men must sweep the salt."

Edited January 23, 2021 by Tigerboy1966
copy edit

[Kintamayama 44,350]

Looks like Terunofuji is on an Ozeki run for next basho. "We'll have to wait for the basho to be over to see what's what, but he did beat the participating Ozeki. 4 losses isn't that bad. He's showing some good wins," said Nishikido deputy of the judging department. "A lot to anticipate next basho," he added. His numbers should lead to an Ozeki run, said the reporter.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

8 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

Edit: I think Tokushoryu-Daishomaru must be the record, at least for the modern era, if this search is anything to go by. The only greater rank disparity I can count with confidence is from Jan 1928 when a J10e fought an M9w, but in fact that was only a difference of 28 half-ranks because of the smaller division sizes. In Jan 1933, a J11eBS fought an M7w for a difference of 40, but to be honest I'm not really sure what the 'BS' means or how to count the banzuke ranks.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query_bout.aspx?show_form=0&rank1=J5-J14&rank2=M10-M1

BS = Besseki was a separate side ranking for rikishi who returned to the NSK after the mass quitting over pay issues a year earlier. I'm not actually sure if they were considered to be at (or equivalent to) a specific banzuke rank, other than "lower than everybody on the regular banzuke". Listing those rikishis' ranks as M9eBS and J11eBS may just be a DB convention that's necessary in order to assign them to those divisions for that basho.

For scheduling purposes they seem to have treated these rikishi as roughly equivalent to their individual pre-quitting ranks, e.g. Ayazakura (previously komusubi) had a much harder schedule than Sotogahama (previously M16). But they definitely didn't have actual, different ranks for that basho (not even within the besseki listing itself), as can be seen by the unusual occurrence of a juryo yusho playoff between two besseki rikishi, in an era when the titles normally still went automatically to the higher-ranked rikishi.

Edited January 23, 2021 by Asashosakari

[Amamaniac 2,078]

Ozeki Watch for Senshuraku – the final chapter!

As soon as Daieisho won his day 14 bout, the yusho race became all about two people: Daieisho himself and Ozeki Shodai.  However, while Shodai began day 14 as a co-leader, his loss to Terunofuji left him trailing the rank-and-file challenger to the Emperor's Cup by one loss.  

Even though the other active Ozeki is no longer in the yusho equation, he is still in the equation.  That is to say, although Asanoyama can't hope to win the Top Division championship, he still may have a say in Shodai's chances to win said championship.  As is the tradition, the two highest-ranked men on the banzuke meet in the final bout of the basho.  

If Daieisho wins his last regulation bout – which comes five bouts before the musubi no ichiban final bout, he will snag the championship then and there, making the Ozeki showdown more or less irrelevant.  However, if by chance he loses his regulation match..., then the final bout becomes 100% more critical.  Shodai will need to win that bout in order to force a playoff between him and Daieisho.  However, Asanoyama will have the chance to play spoiler, and hand Shodai the loss and Daiesho the championship.

So what do we know about the two Ozeki?  Asanoyama is the senpai having secured promotion to oozumo's second-highest rank after the "ghost" tournament last March, whereas Shodai achieved Ozeki status six months later in September.  In terms of relative talent, if that can be determined, Asanoyama outshines Shodai in the sense that it only took him 16 tournaments in Makuuchi to reach Ozeki status, whereas Shodai needed 28 tournaments.  But in terms of their 4-4 head-to-head record, they are evenly matched.  If the pattern of their wins is any indication of what might happen (I'm digging here), then Shodai should win.  Each man has tended to win twice and then lose twice, and Shodai won their last meeting in September 2020, but lost twice before that.  Not much help there.  The real impetus to win their showdown bout this tournament (aside from a pile of 41 kensho prizes) will rest largely on whether Shodai has a hope of forcing a playoff.  Otherwise, the two Ozeki (and fans everywhere) will be considerably less invested in the outcome.

"Go big, or go home," it's said...

Edited January 23, 2021 by Amamaniac

[code_number3 694]

51 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

AND the 9 man  Makushita playoffs AND the Jonidan playoffs AND the three man Jonokuchi playoffs which theoretically can go on forever.

And the cut-off broadcast time is 6PM because 6PM News 

[WAKATAKE 2,631]

I have to say that this was the best day I have seen so far with the action. Terunofuji displayed stellar athleticism when it came to dancing on the tawara, and Tachiai's putting a picture of Godzilla on their day 14 review article was fitting of the feat.

Kotonowaka manhandling Yutakayama at the end there, and he gets double digits for the first time, will be getting a new high rank next basho

Akiseyama getting to nine wins, could we be possibly be seeing a sansho for the veteran?

A hard spirited match between Kiribayama and Midorifuji, Midori has nothing to be ashamed about and Enho could learn some moves from him!

Takarafuji outlasting Ichinojo to an impressive yorikiri!

Terutsuyoshi with that utchari at the end, I did NOT seeing that coming!

Daieisho escapes to keep his hopes alive and the possibility of the first yusho winner Hatsu basho streak could possibly extend!

All sanyaku are kachi-koshi now with Takanosho getting that 8th win

Shodai fought tough but just could not take down Godzilla there!

Nice moves by Asanoyama and good to see him get to double digits too!

It's going to be exciting for senshuraku!

[WAKATAKE 2,631]

Terunofuji is officially on an ozeki run in March thanks to his defeating Shodai on day 14, according to judging deputy chief Nishikido.

"Obviously the basho is not over and we need to see what happens, but he did beat the other ozeki besides Takakeisho who had to withdraw. His four losses aren't bad losses and he is winning in good ways too." 

The de facto requirement is 33 wins in sanyaku, and so far he is at 23.

https://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/202101230000750.html

[sahaven111 172]

9 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

to be honest I'm not really sure what the 'BS' means or how to count the banzuke ranks.

 

It means he was over-promoted, and his rank is bullshit.

[Kaninoyama 1,694]

7 hours ago, sumojoann said:

Almost exactly FIVE years ago to the day, inhashi posted that Takarafuji could benchpress 230kg and deadlift 300kg!  Amazing!!

 

During their match I was commenting to my wife: Takarafuji is a huge man with massive legs, yet they were dwarfed by the size of Ichinojo's. He and Terunofuji just make everyone else look small. 

[Benevolance 2,478]

Huh. I could have sworn Mitakeumi needed 10 wins to get back to ozeki and was going to make a joke at his expense, but I see he hasn't even made ozeki still. He's clearly adopted the Goeidou-style sumo very quickly. 

[Kaninoyama 1,694]

Disappointed for Midorifuji losing yesterday to put double digits and possible sansho out of reach. No guarantee he would have won, but he was at a disadvantage during the loose-mawashi stoppage, which took longer than expected while Kiribayama kept exerting pressure on him instead of standing still in position.  He was clearly exhausted following the bout. 

Hopefully he can add one more kata-sukashi win today to cap off an impressive Makuuchi debut. 

Edited January 23, 2021 by Kaninoyama