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Yamanashi

Minimum Kachi-Koshi forever

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Sorry if this has been covered; I can't find it.  A discussion on longevity in Makuuchi led me to suggest that an 8-7 for every basho would get you to eternal Sekiwake: never lower, nerver higher.

How long would it take for a newbie to make Sekiwake by making the minimum KK each tournament?  Now we know!

I started at Jk25 and assumed a 4-3 every basho until Juryo, then 8-7 every basho.  To predict the landing rank, I averaged the last six results chronologically in the sumodb.

This fellow makes Jonidan 89 in one basho; in his sixth basho he's at Sd89.  He breaks into Makushita in his 12th basho; it's painfully slow as he reaches the Ms joi, but he reaches Juryo in his 23rd basho.  After 30 total basho he's broken into Makuuchi at M15; 39 basho to reach K1w, and S1e at last in his 42nd basho.

That's seven straight years of minimal KK, with a record of 248-206.  I'll bet it wouldn't take that long to fall back to Jk25 with all MK's.

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I've wondered about perennial 4-3s as well, thanks for taking the time to work this out.

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Holy crap, man. The tournament JUST ENDED. Inter-basho boredom isn't scheduled to begin for...*checks calendar*...another three days. 

Edited by Benevolance
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2 hours ago, Benevolance said:

Holy crap, man. The tournament JUST ENDED. Inter-basho boredom isn't scheduled to begin for...*checks calendar*...another three days. 

All I can say is ... hold my beer!

I started at Se1e and went in reverse: 7-8 until Makushita, then 3-4 all the way.  I was absolutely surprised.  It took much longer to fall with minimum MK's then it did to rise with minimum KK's.

Our poor loser is still in Makuuchi after 21 basho, then exits sekitorihood after basho 35.  The pace picks up, and he's in Sandanme in basho 45, back to Jonidan 7 basho later.  He finally reaches Jonokuchi at basho 57; after that one can't predict, because the committee often promotes Jk rikishi with losing records.

So, 42 basho to go up, 57 to go back down.  I wouldn't have guessed it.

Next, my friend @Benevolance will find out what happens if you start at Ms25 and alternate 4-3 and 3-4 forever.  I asked some Zen priests to look into that, but they said that the rikishi must ultimately see his way without sight, and please don't contact them again.  So it's up to you.

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24 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

It took much longer to fall with minimum MK's then it did to rise with minimum KK's.

I guess at least as a sekitori, one nearly always goes up with KK, but quite often doesn't drop with MK.

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27 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I guess at least as a sekitori, one nearly always goes up with KK, but quite often doesn't drop with MK.

That's right. When I was working in the Makuuchi-Juryo range, I had to specify E-W in the ranks or the result would come back with the same average rank!

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Not that this is relevant but to my knowledge Kaio is the only rikishi to have gone 8-7 in all six basho of a calendar year

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5 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

I started at Se1e and went in reverse: 7-8 until Makushita, then 3-4 all the way.  I was absolutely surprised.  It took much longer to fall with minimum MK's then it did to rise with minimum KK's.

Indeed they tend to promote KK at a higher pace than they demote MK. You can find many exemples all around the banzuke. The only exceptions are near Sanyaku and the very top of Makushita. Also weirdly, it seems less true between Aki/November that it was before ...

5 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

... after that one can't predict, because the committee often promotes Jk rikishi with losing records.

In Jonokuchi, they pretty much just rank the rikishi MK from Jonokuchi the previous basho by decreasing number of wins, with the new demoted from Jonidan spread in between.
So if you score 3-4 from Jonokuchi, whether you were ranked at the top or the bottom of the division, you gonna be ranked at the top of Jonokuchi next basho.
And of course, Hattorizakura at the bottom.

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32 minutes ago, WAKATAKE said:

Not that this is relevant but to my knowledge Kaio is the only rikishi to have gone 8-7 in all six basho of a calendar year

Unfortunately for us and this little exercise he did it at Ozeki, thus affecting rank not one bit.

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6 hours ago, Oortael said:

Indeed they tend to promote KK at a higher pace than they demote MK. You can find many exemples all around the banzuke. The only exceptions are near Sanyaku and the very top of Makushita. Also weirdly, it seems less true between Aki/November that it was before ...

In Jonokuchi, they pretty much just rank the rikishi MK from Jonokuchi the previous basho by decreasing number of wins, with the new demoted from Jonidan spread in between.
So if you score 3-4 from Jonokuchi, whether you were ranked at the top or the bottom of the division, you gonna be ranked at the top of Jonokuchi next basho.
And of course, Hattorizakura at the bottom.

Your last comment shows that there are some standards that won't be fiddled with.

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6 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

Not that this is relevant but to my knowledge Kaio is the only rikishi to have gone 8-7 in all six basho of a calendar year

"Never kadoban, seldom double digits".  I should have used that for my Ozeki slogan after all.

I note that during that stretch he went 7-23 over the last five days.  It was like "OK, got my KK, now let's stay injury-free."  If he were a less worthy rikishi, I might think he was getting someone back for 3 Y and 7 JY without a rope; more likely, he was marshaling his energy to stay at Ozeki.

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How fast will be the promotion if he keeps winning without a single loss?

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19 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

After 30 total basho he's broken into Makuuchi at M15; 39 basho to reach K1w, and S1e at last in his 42nd basho.

You could have known that without DB-torture ;-)

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12 makuuchi basho on the way up plus 21 on the way back down, topping out at Sekiwake -- that qualifies our hypothetical "KK first half of his career, MK second half" rikishi to buy a kabu when he finally goes intai at the end of those 17 years, doesn't it?

Edited by Sue
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On 26/11/2020 at 13:13, Dapeng said:

How fast will be the promotion if he keeps winning without a single loss?

The five most recent triple 7-0s from jonokuchi placed the rikishi between Ms13 and Ms15. One more 7-0 would be shin-juryo at the bottom of the division. From the bottom of juryo a zensho would be bottom of makuuchi (although this apparently never happened yet). One more would be high-maegashira/sanyaku, then Ozeki in 2 bashos, and Yokozuna in 2 more zenshos. In total that would be 11 bashos from jonokuchi to yokozuna.

The biggest problem here is of course that there are far less zensho rikishi than there are barely-kachikoshi. The lack of samples leads to uncertainties, mainly whether three 15-0s in a row from the bottom of makuuchi would earn an ozeki promotion (they probably should) and whether one more zensho from there would earn a yokozuna promotion. If the answer is yes to both then the total would only be 9 bashos.

Basho

Slow estimate

Fast Estimate

1

Jk

 

2

Jn

 

3

Sd

 

4

Ms15

 

5

J14

 

6

M16

 

7

M1

M1

8

S

S

9

S

O

10

O

Y

11

O

 

12

Y

 

Edited by Kamitsuumi
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The fact that there is no rule craved in stone makes everything possible, and considering that the lower maegashira zensho simply does not count, the two M1/S zenshos could be enough. But I am not sure they would be keen to promote to yokozuna after only 1 basho as ozeki...

 

Also, for the comparison climbing vs falling down the ranks with 4-3 / 3-4, the fact is that, unless there is NO kyujo rikishi, the balance between banzuke-relevant wins and losses/absences favours the losses/absences. Also, absences, banzuke-wise, are worse than on-dohyo losses, which worsens a bit the phenomenon. So there is more good banzuke luck than bad banzuke luck "available". Also, rikishi going intai have to be considered, practically opening a void right in the middle of the banzuke, that is filled bottom-up, and that occurs every single basho.

Edited by Nantonoyama
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On 26/11/2020 at 09:40, WAKATAKE said:

Not that this is relevant but to my knowledge Kaio is the only rikishi to have gone 8-7 in all six basho of a calendar year

It does get more relevant for this thread without the calendar year restriction, though. B-)

Kotomitsuki
 

On 26/11/2020 at 22:16, Nantonoyama said:

Also, rikishi going intai have to be considered, practically opening a void right in the middle of the banzuke, that is filled bottom-up, and that occurs every single basho.

Yes, starting from sandanme downward, the number of intai has by far the biggest effect, especially on how large the demotions are since they tend to keep the promotions fairly constant in size.

Edited by Asashosakari
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On 26/11/2020 at 19:10, WAKATAKE said:

Not that this is relevant but to my knowledge Kaio is the only rikishi to have gone 8-7 in all six basho of a calendar year

Ozeki back-scratching?

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46 minutes ago, yohcun said:

Ozeki back-scratching?

Not obviously, at least not over his Ozeki career (see my post above).  He didn't actually go 8-7 until his 35th basho as Ozeki.  Of his 14 8-7 scores, only five were decided on the last day.

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1 hour ago, yohcun said:

Ozeki back-scratching?

No.  For an aging ozeki who is no longer a valid candidate to attain a yusho, the only basho objectives are to avoid injury and, if possible, avoid kadoban.  The effort that goes into every match is limited to meeting those two objectives.  Most "back scratching" is done by ozekis who have met or clearly will meet their kadoban objective and are working on their injury objective. An intelligent ozeki will get a yusho, jun-yusho or 8-7.  Anything else is needlessly career-threatening.
In his final year, Kaio was getting some back scratching from junior joi-jin who did not want to be the rikishi who forced the ozeki into retirement.  He had legendary status, and he did not know when to quit.

Edited by Asojima
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Based on data I compiled many years ago that probably is still accurate for the most part but hasn't been updated at all since I compiled it:

Alternating 4-3 and 3-4 will eventually land you in the middle of Sandanme regardless of where in the lower division you start, while alternating 8-7 and 7-8 while in Juryo you will likely be promoted to Makuuchi (Seiro managed to get promoted from Juryo to Makuuchi with a losing record in Juryo in one stint in the division, though he had plenty of other records), and in Mauuchi you'll probably make it to Sekiwake eventually, working your way around the junior sanyaku and M1 and maybe M2 depending on how everyone else does.  The divergence of these results shows how hard it is to break into Juryo from the top of Makushita compared to how easy it is to maintain once there.  It could take you a whole year of 4-3s (or more!) from Ms5 to get promoted to Juryo as sometimes there's just no space to move people up very far.

Alternating 5-2 and 2-5 will get you alternating around sd15 and sd40.

Alternating 6-1 and 1-6 will get you much higher - there's a big premium on 6-1, but not as much of a fall associated with 1-6.  I predict it would alternate around ms15 and ms36.

Similarly, alternating 7-0 and 0-7 will get you to alternate between around ms5 and ms40.

Alternating 2-5 and 4-3 will bring you to the bottom of Jonidan, but alternating 1-6 and 5-2 will bring you to alternate closer to jd20 and jd60.  Alternating 0-7 and 6-1 will likely put you alternating between ms25 and ms60, but it might also get you stuck alternating between sd1 and sd51.  According to my data there's apparently a jump from 35 to 50 in how far they demote 0-7 depending on whether you start in Makushita or Sandanme and doesn't seem to taper like other movement patterns.  If you get a lucky promotion into Makushita from below sd50, you'll have your high end stay in Makushita in future cycles, though at the low end you might occasionally get demoted to the top of Sandanme even once your rank settles.

 

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On 25/11/2020 at 16:25, Yamanashi said:

Sorry if this has been covered; I can't find it.  A discussion on longevity in Makuuchi led me to suggest that an 8-7 for every basho would get you to eternal Sekiwake: never lower, nerver higher.

How long would it take for a newbie to make Sekiwake by making the minimum KK each tournament?  Now we know!

I started at Jk25 and assumed a 4-3 every basho until Juryo, then 8-7 every basho.  To predict the landing rank, I averaged the last six results chronologically in the sumodb.

This fellow makes Jonidan 89 in one basho; in his sixth basho he's at Sd89.  He breaks into Makushita in his 12th basho; it's painfully slow as he reaches the Ms joi, but he reaches Juryo in his 23rd basho.  After 30 total basho he's broken into Makuuchi at M15; 39 basho to reach K1w, and S1e at last in his 42nd basho.

Current real-world example: Makio!

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49 minutes ago, Ack! said:

Current real-world example: Makio!

Instead of The Wall, maybe we should call his career The Hurdle.

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Here's another silly question: if someone goes 15-0-D (zensho, but loss in the playoffs because someone else also went zensho) twice in a row, would they be promoted to yokozuna? The standard is two consecutive yusho, but in such a situation one wonders if the NSK would consider an exception.

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